Fantasy realignment chain reactions
Ok, so to start off, I think the Big12 will try to get TX and OK to pay through the nose, and I think other Big12 expansion targets are going to wait until that plays out, the same as when everyone seemed to wait to see how Maryland leaving the ACC played out before further big moves.
So let's pretend for this, that TX and OU is resolved.
What's the first next step for P5 expansion?
I think it's been declared - Florida State and Clemson from ACC to the SEC.
I think both of them having ESPN ties will make this transition easier, and might even help spur a contract renegotiation, which ACC seems to want.
To help that latter point along, ACC is likely to raid the Big12 and the AAC. The focus will be reliability, stability, and regional coverage.
I also think that in the midst of this that ND will take this opportunity to leave the ACC (they might not, but whether they stay or go is mostly immaterial to this).
So adding from the Big12 - Cinn, WVa, and UCF; and from the AAC Memphis, Temple, and USF
This completes the old/new BE collection of teams. So ACC is stable with solid coverage: old/new BE; VA/NC; FLA/GA
Northeast: Syracuse, Pitt, BC, Temple
South Central:WVa, Cinn, Louisville, Memphis
Central: NC, NC state, Duke, WF, VA, VT
South: GT, Miami, USF, UCF
This of course affects the Big12 and the AAC. In this, I think the schools are more likely to want to join the Big12 than the AAC.
I think the Big12 will go for stability and look west for geography, and look to the old SW conference for rivalries.
Big12 adds Boise state, and from the AAC: SMU and Rice
Now things could stop here, leaving the ACC pretty weak and probably looking closely at cusa and the sunbelt to either poach from or merge to.
But I think at this point, the BIG10 will act.
While they don't "need" to expand, as anyone who's been watching the current streaming wars, content is important. And unless you're the PAC, 16-20 seems to be where you need to be.
We all know about AAU, and other than the "almosts" of NE and Syracuse, I think the closest that the Big10 came to adding a non AAU was when they talked about adding OK, or when Delany suggested adding all the NC/VA teams in order to get NC in the big10 (neither of which happened, of course)
And I don't think Vanderbilt, TAMU, TX, or Florida are leaving the SEC. Missouri's the only possible there, if the negotiations were to go well.
And Kansas would be its joining partner, to bring the Big10 to 16.
If they could manage to make ND happy again and offer them a deal similar to what the ACC offered, they could very well get ND to join. If so, then Iowa state lucks out and gets to join, though likely on a long provisional basis. (otherwise IL to southwest)
Big10 east: Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State
Big10 central: MI, MI State, IND, Purdue, (ND - non-FB)
Big10 northwest:Ill, Wis, Minn, IA, NW
Big10 southwest:KS, MO, NE, IA state
To replace MO, SEC grabs OK St.
And Big12 likely grabs Tulsa and Tulane I know that some think SDST and CS from the MWC are likely, but I think CS and airforce are staying put (similar to why I think NC is staying in the ACC), and I think SDST is waiting (hope beyond hope) for a PAC invite (probably paired with Hawaii). No idea where PAC would get 15 and 16 and yet keep their academia universities happy. SDST and Hawaii are iffy at best.
At this point there is very little left of the AAC (Sunbelt will take what they want and the rest will likely merge with CUSA). but the P5 all survived realignment - though the Big12 may replace the AAC in the G5.
What do you all think?
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