Ok, so to start off, I think the Big12 will try to get TX and OK to pay through the nose, and I think other Big12 expansion targets are going to wait until that plays out, the same as when everyone seemed to wait to see how Maryland leaving the ACC played out before further big moves.

So let's pretend for this, that TX and OU is resolved.

What's the first next step for P5 expansion?

I think it's been declared - Florida State and Clemson from ACC to the SEC.

I think both of them having ESPN ties will make this transition easier, and might even help spur a contract renegotiation, which ACC seems to want.

To help that latter point along, ACC is likely to raid the Big12 and the AAC. The focus will be reliability, stability, and regional coverage.

I also think that in the midst of this that ND will take this opportunity to leave the ACC (they might not, but whether they stay or go is mostly immaterial to this).

So adding from the Big12 - Cinn, WVa, and UCF; and from the AAC Memphis, Temple, and USF

This completes the old/new BE collection of teams. So ACC is stable with solid coverage: old/new BE; VA/NC; FLA/GA

Northeast: Syracuse, Pitt, BC, Temple
South Central:WVa, Cinn, Louisville, Memphis
Central: NC, NC state, Duke, WF, VA, VT
South: GT, Miami, USF, UCF

This of course affects the Big12 and the AAC. In this, I think the schools are more likely to want to join the Big12 than the AAC.

I think the Big12 will go for stability and look west for geography, and look to the old SW conference for rivalries.

Big12 adds Boise state, and from the AAC: SMU and Rice

Now things could stop here, leaving the ACC pretty weak and probably looking closely at cusa and the sunbelt to either poach from or merge to.

But I think at this point, the BIG10 will act.

While they don't "need" to expand, as anyone who's been watching the current streaming wars, content is important. And unless you're the PAC, 16-20 seems to be where you need to be.

We all know about AAU, and other than the "almosts" of NE and Syracuse, I think the closest that the Big10 came to adding a non AAU was when they talked about adding OK, or when Delany suggested adding all the NC/VA teams in order to get NC in the big10 (neither of which happened, of course)

And I don't think Vanderbilt, TAMU, TX, or Florida are leaving the SEC. Missouri's the only possible there, if the negotiations were to go well.

And Kansas would be its joining partner, to bring the Big10 to 16.

If they could manage to make ND happy again and offer them a deal similar to what the ACC offered, they could very well get ND to join. If so, then Iowa state lucks out and gets to join, though likely on a long provisional basis. (otherwise IL to southwest)

Big10 east: Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State
Big10 central: MI, MI State, IND, Purdue, (ND - non-FB)
Big10 northwest:Ill, Wis, Minn, IA, NW
Big10 southwest:KS, MO, NE, IA state

To replace MO, SEC grabs OK St.

And Big12 likely grabs Tulsa and Tulane I know that some think SDST and CS from the MWC are likely, but I think CS and airforce are staying put (similar to why I think NC is staying in the ACC), and I think SDST is waiting (hope beyond hope) for a PAC invite (probably paired with Hawaii). No idea where PAC would get 15 and 16 and yet keep their academia universities happy. SDST and Hawaii are iffy at best.

At this point there is very little left of the AAC (Sunbelt will take what they want and the rest will likely merge with CUSA). but the P5 all survived realignment - though the Big12 may replace the AAC in the G5.

What do you all think?

ESPN would lose value by moving FSU and Clemson out of the ACC.

Also, ND is contractually committed to the ACC for another 15 years.

(01-17-2022 04:51 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  ESPN would lose value by moving FSU and Clemson out of the ACC.

Also, ND is contractually committed to the ACC for another 15 years.

ESPN has both acc and sec, so nothing lost and more content gained.

And ND is not locked in, if ACC uses the school changes as an opportunity to re-negotiate. (and the internal conference "lock-in" can be negotiated as well)

But regardless, as I said, whether ND moves or not, doesn't affect this much.

(01-17-2022 04:51 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  ESPN would lose value by moving FSU and Clemson out of the ACC.

Also, ND is contractually committed to the ACC for another 15 years.

Always the GoR , which admittedly keeps us locked up in the basement of the crumbling plantation house on Tobacco Road while you Supper Clubbers sit upstairs in the parlor, playing chess and prattling on about basketball. For now.

If it is successfully challenged, or outside events sweep it away, then ESPN stands to gain value overall by moving the best properties from the ACC to the SEC...either lessening what they have to pay the leftover ACC or shipping teams that don't draw well off to another network altogether.

And perhaps freeing ESPN from the ACC network deal, which I don't think we have a verdict on yet, but I still think may prove to be not much more successful than the failed Longhorn Network. The ACC states have enough people for it to be potentially successful, but I don't believe the interest is there to do so. Time will tell.

(01-17-2022 05:21 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(01-17-2022 04:51 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  ESPN would lose value by moving FSU and Clemson out of the ACC.

Also, ND is contractually committed to the ACC for another 15 years.

Always the GoR , which admittedly keeps us locked up in the basement of the crumbling plantation house on Tobacco Road while you Supper Clubbers sit upstairs in the parlor, playing chess and prattling on about basketball. For now.

If it is successfully challenged, or outside events sweep it away, then ESPN stands to gain value overall by moving the best properties from the ACC to the SEC...either lessening what they have to pay the leftover ACC or shipping teams that don't draw well off to another network altogether.

And perhaps freeing ESPN from the ACC network deal, which I don't think we have a verdict on yet, but I still think may prove to be not much more successful than the failed Longhorn Network. The ACC states have enough people for it to be potentially successful, but I don't believe the interest is there to do so. Time will tell.

While most seem to agree that the ACC deal isn't as good as other deals, think about this from ESPN's point of view.

When they made that deal they did not have SEC - now they do.

So if for some unforeseen reason the ACC deal was "torn up", I would think it would be in ESPN's interest for the pick of the ACC to join the SEC, and just not have a deal with the ACC at all.

I think the B10 might try to intervene for the AAU schools (NC et al), but Clemson and florida state to the SEC seem a foregone conclusion waiting to happen.

No Thanks

(02-28-2022 04:07 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(01-17-2022 05:21 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(01-17-2022 04:51 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  ESPN would lose value by moving FSU and Clemson out of the ACC.

Also, ND is contractually committed to the ACC for another 15 years.

Always the GoR , which admittedly keeps us locked up in the basement of the crumbling plantation house on Tobacco Road while you Supper Clubbers sit upstairs in the parlor, playing chess and prattling on about basketball. For now.

If it is successfully challenged, or outside events sweep it away, then ESPN stands to gain value overall by moving the best properties from the ACC to the SEC...either lessening what they have to pay the leftover ACC or shipping teams that don't draw well off to another network altogether.

And perhaps freeing ESPN from the ACC network deal, which I don't think we have a verdict on yet, but I still think may prove to be not much more successful than the failed Longhorn Network. The ACC states have enough people for it to be potentially successful, but I don't believe the interest is there to do so. Time will tell.

While most seem to agree that the ACC deal isn't as good as other deals, think about this from ESPN's point of view.

When they made that deal they did not have SEC - now they do.

So if for some unforeseen reason the ACC deal was "torn up", I would think it would be in ESPN's interest for the pick of the ACC to join the SEC, and just not have a deal with the ACC at all.

I think the B10 might try to intervene for the AAU schools (NC et al), but Clemson and florida state to the SEC seem a foregone conclusion waiting to happen.

If ESPN can pay Clemson and FSU $30m a year under the ACC deal through 2036 why would it (a) gut the value of its investment in the ACC Network by taking away two of its most valuable members and (b) voluntarily agree to pay Clemson and FSU an extra $40m+ per year under the SEC deal? Going beyond 16 teams also makes scheduling more complicated and unwieldy.

I believe Clemson and Florida State, given the opportunity, might jump to the SEC. However I would expect SEC leadership is well aware of the rule of diminishing returns. Every team, who joins a conference, guarantees another conference loss for the league.

Teams who are used to going to the CFP from the Big 12 or the ACC could have multiple losses eliminating any chance of making the playoffs. Programs already in the SEC who are used to regularly going to bowl games, will most likely see fewer wins and fewer bowl games as result.

If I was the AD at Clemson or Florida State, I would be interested in what happens to Texas and Oklahoma when they play a season or two in the SEC.

Looks like OU and UT will be paying around $80mil a piece to exit the Big XII because of the GOR contract they signed. That thing was for 99 years, so they have like 90 years to go before it ends. UT can pay now, OU is working the money up, that’s why it’ll be 2024 before the move, SEC wants them at the same time.

(03-01-2022 07:59 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Looks like OU and UT will be paying around $80mil a piece to exit the Big XII because of the GOR contract they signed. That thing was for 99 years, so they have like 90 years to go before it ends. UT can pay now, OU is working the money up, that’s why it’ll be 2024 before the move, SEC wants them at the same time.

If that's accurate I think it's great news. If it's $80 million to exit a 90 years left GoR, then the 14+ years in the ACC GoR should be something quite manageable.

(03-01-2022 06:33 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I believe Clemson and Florida State, given the opportunity, might jump to the SEC. However I would expect SEC leadership is well aware of the rule of diminishing returns. Every team, who joins a conference, guarantees another conference loss for the league.

Teams who are used to going to the CFP from the Big 12 or the ACC could have multiple losses eliminating any chance of making the playoffs. Programs already in the SEC who are used to regularly going to bowl games, will most likely see fewer wins and fewer bowl games as result.

If I was the AD at Clemson or Florida State, I would be interested in what happens to Texas and Oklahoma when they play a season or two in the SEC.

The key thing to look at in this is to think outside the box. Everything we know about the CFP is headed for major change!!!! Also, basketball is headed for major changes as well.

The B1G, the ACC, and the PAC 12 are the ones still thinking inside the box, IMO. The SEC has been looking outside the box ever since its playoff proposal got shot down, IMO. The B1G had the perfect chance to avenge its loss of Oklahoma and Texas, but they have blown it once again by thinking only inside the box. That will come back to haunt them, a lot. I am not shedding any tears for the B1G this time.

This is also why I think that the SEC and Vandy will come to a mutual understanding whereby Vandy remains an SEC member for all sports except for football. These deals have been done before. See Notre Dame and the ACC. See Notre Dame and the old Big East football conference. See New Mexico State and the WAC in times past. See Villanova and Georgetown in the Big East. If Frank the Yank wants to debate this again, I'm ready, because regardless of what B1G and Pac 12 posters think, I believe this will happen, and I am not backing down!!!!

A lot of interesting stuff in the original post.
As a thought experiment, I got stuck on this question...

Can an ACC without Clemson and FSU still be able to raid the Big 12?

If the Carolina and Virginia schools stay, then there is probably enough history to lure WV and Cincy to the ACC. Maybe the ACC could double down on Florida and take UCF and USF. At that point the ACC probably destroys the Big 12's chances to expand to the East. The ACC survives.

The Big 12 is forced to scramble by adding Memphis, Tulane, Col St and Boise St.

(03-03-2022 04:16 AM)goofus Wrote:  A lot of interesting stuff in the original post.
As a thought experiment, I got stuck on this question...

Can an ACC without Clemson and FSU still be able to raid the Big 12?

If the Carolina and Virginia schools stay, then there is probably enough history to lure WV and Cincy to the ACC. Maybe the ACC could double down on Florida and take UCF and USF. At that point the ACC probably destroys the Big 12's chances to expand to the East. The ACC survives.

The Big 12 is forced to scramble by adding Memphis, Tulane, Col St and Boise St.

Fair question. I think it can. Most of what's left are former big east rivals or long time acc members.

I agree on backfill potentials, except I think acc will also go for memphis, and b12, smu. Flip a coin on whether b12 takes tulane or rice for rivalries.

(03-03-2022 02:47 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(03-01-2022 06:33 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I believe Clemson and Florida State, given the opportunity, might jump to the SEC. However I would expect SEC leadership is well aware of the rule of diminishing returns. Every team, who joins a conference, guarantees another conference loss for the league.

Teams who are used to going to the CFP from the Big 12 or the ACC could have multiple losses eliminating any chance of making the playoffs. Programs already in the SEC who are used to regularly going to bowl games, will most likely see fewer wins and fewer bowl games as result.

If I was the AD at Clemson or Florida State, I would be interested in what happens to Texas and Oklahoma when they play a season or two in the SEC.

The key thing to look at in this is to think outside the box. Everything we know about the CFP is headed for major change!!!! Also, basketball is headed for major changes as well.

The B1G, the ACC, and the PAC 12 are the ones still thinking inside the box, IMO. The SEC has been looking outside the box ever since its playoff proposal got shot down, IMO. The B1G had the perfect chance to avenge its loss of Oklahoma and Texas, but they have blown it once again by thinking only inside the box. That will come back to haunt them, a lot. I am not shedding any tears for the B1G this time.

This is also why I think that the SEC and Vandy will come to a mutual understanding whereby Vandy remains an SEC member for all sports except for football. These deals have been done before. See Notre Dame and the ACC. See Notre Dame and the old Big East football conference. See New Mexico State and the WAC in times past. See Villanova and Georgetown in the Big East. If Frank the Yank wants to debate this again, I'm ready, because regardless of what B1G and Pac 12 posters think, I believe this will happen, and I am not backing down!!!!

Why would Vandy agree to that? And why would the conference? Vandy would get a much smaller media payout and its non-FB revenue sports are mediocre at best (baseball isn’t a revenue sport). Plus, the rest of the league would lose FB roadtrips to one of the best cities in the South for a guaranteed victory and Vandy would potentially forgo playing Tennessee for years.

(03-03-2022 11:55 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  

(03-03-2022 02:47 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(03-01-2022 06:33 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  I believe Clemson and Florida State, given the opportunity, might jump to the SEC. However I would expect SEC leadership is well aware of the rule of diminishing returns. Every team, who joins a conference, guarantees another conference loss for the league.

Teams who are used to going to the CFP from the Big 12 or the ACC could have multiple losses eliminating any chance of making the playoffs. Programs already in the SEC who are used to regularly going to bowl games, will most likely see fewer wins and fewer bowl games as result.

If I was the AD at Clemson or Florida State, I would be interested in what happens to Texas and Oklahoma when they play a season or two in the SEC.

The key thing to look at in this is to think outside the box. Everything we know about the CFP is headed for major change!!!! Also, basketball is headed for major changes as well.

The B1G, the ACC, and the PAC 12 are the ones still thinking inside the box, IMO. The SEC has been looking outside the box ever since its playoff proposal got shot down, IMO. The B1G had the perfect chance to avenge its loss of Oklahoma and Texas, but they have blown it once again by thinking only inside the box. That will come back to haunt them, a lot. I am not shedding any tears for the B1G this time.

This is also why I think that the SEC and Vandy will come to a mutual understanding whereby Vandy remains an SEC member for all sports except for football. These deals have been done before. See Notre Dame and the ACC. See Notre Dame and the old Big East football conference. See New Mexico State and the WAC in times past. See Villanova and Georgetown in the Big East. If Frank the Yank wants to debate this again, I'm ready, because regardless of what B1G and Pac 12 posters think, I believe this will happen, and I am not backing down!!!!

Why would Vandy agree to that? And why would the conference? Vandy would get a much smaller media payout and its non-FB revenue sports are mediocre at best (baseball isn’t a revenue sport). Plus, the rest of the league would lose FB roadtrips to one of the best cities in the South for a guaranteed victory and Vandy would potentially forgo playing Tennessee for years.

Vandy could keep rivalries for Olympic sports, and still get a pretty good payout. Basketball is on the rise, and I believe that baseball could be made into a money sport one day in the future.
The league might miss on trips to Nashville, but would you rather travel to Nashville or Tampa in the fall?? Nashville is ok, but I would take Tampa over Nashville. Vandy wouldn't be foregoing playing Tennessee and Ole Miss if they scheduled them both OOC.