The new Big 12 will have no football Kings.

But, *rivalry* games and proximate schools compete for interest, attendance, and eyeballs.

This would add five true rivalry games to the Big 12 lineup:

WVU-Pitt
Cincy-Pitt
Cincy-Louisville
Cincy-Memphis
Louisville-Memphis

Plus driving distance games WVU-Cincy, WVU-Louisville, and Pitt-Louisville. The eastern branch would give the Big 12 a solid group of games from which to pick for the 12pm ET kickoff...in addition to UCF's home inventory.

Interestingly, this would essentially lay a Big 12 eastern branch right along the B1G-SEC border. The move would also push ACC football out of the Midwest fringes and essentially back into a smaller regional conference.

And, the Big 12 isn't stuck like the ACC with a lackluster TV deal for the next 15 years.

Big 12 scheduling divisions:
EAST: Pitt, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, Memphis
NORTH: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, BYU
SOUTH: Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston, UCF

4-2-2 schedule would guarantee everyone a game in Texas 4 out of 5 years.

BYU and UCF are geographic outliers, but they are programs that can hold their own with OOC rivalries and other unique factors.

The expanded new Big 12 basketball would be ridiculous.

Have fun with that ACC GOR.

yeah totally.

(01-12-2022 11:22 AM)YNot Wrote:  The new Big 12 will have no football Kings.

But, *rivalry* games and proximate schools compete for interest, attendance, and eyeballs.

This would add five true rivalry games to the Big 12 lineup:

WVU-Pitt
Cincy-Pitt
Cincy-Louisville
Cincy-Memphis
Louisville-Memphis

Plus driving distance games WVU-Cincy, WVU-Louisville, and Pitt-Louisville. The eastern branch would give the Big 12 a solid group of games from which to pick for the 12pm ET kickoff...in addition to UCF's home inventory.

Interestingly, this would essentially lay a Big 12 eastern branch right along the B1G-SEC border. The move would also push ACC football out of the Midwest fringes and essentially back into a smaller regional conference.

And, the Big 12 isn't stuck like the ACC with a lackluster TV deal for the next 15 years.

Big 12 scheduling divisions:
EAST: Pitt, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, Memphis
NORTH: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, BYU
SOUTH: Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston, UCF

4-2-2 schedule would guarantee everyone a game in Texas 4 out of 5 years.

BYU and UCF are geographic outliers, but they are programs that can hold their own with OOC rivalries and other unique factors.

The expanded new Big 12 basketball would be ridiculous.

Interesting idea but will never happen.

Pitt and Louisville are in a MUCH better situation now. Even without the GOR I could see either of them being interested.

Pitt would not be down for it, even if it was revenue neutral. They are more attuned to the eastern part of the country (that is where most of their alumni live) and they have a history with several ACC schools that predate them joining the ACC.

Louisville is likewise happy in the ACC. They would much prefer to consort with the southern schools for FB and UNC, Duke, Syracuse, etc. for hoops. While they have a long with history with UC and Memphis, I don’t think as an institution they are broken up at all about not being associated with those schools (even though some older fans may like to see a series resume).

(01-12-2022 11:30 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Have fun with that ACC GOR.

I think you mean have fun in the AAC.


The GOR is only as prohibitive as the SEC and ESPN want it to be.

If ESPN makes more from rearranging the 40 teams in the SEC, ACC, and AAC, while keeping everyone currently in ACC and AAC whole to their current rate, the GOR is not an issue

And with the GOR not an issue, dissolution is possible, if not likely, once the rush to avoid the AAC is on.

The ACC isn’t getting much more than the Big 12. It won’t be hard to get Louisville and Pitt to jump at a big 12 offer for parity to their current deal. The Big 12 already has that market with WVU, so Pitt has a huge risk in being reactionary. They’ll offload that risk by being an agent of change if the SEC starts things off.

Clemson, Miami/ FSU have the most to lose with the ACC surviving. Wake, Pitt, BC, and Syracuse have the most to lose in an ACC breakup. Hence ESPN, SEC, and Big 12 target those 6 or 7

(01-12-2022 11:30 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Have fun with that ACC GOR.

Whenever the GOR expires, all it takes is the SEC and or B1G to make some moves on the ACC, which overlaps their territory. After that, I can easily see some of these teams jumping ship to the Big 12.

(01-12-2022 11:22 AM)YNot Wrote:  The new Big 12 will have no football Kings.

But, *rivalry* games and proximate schools compete for interest, attendance, and eyeballs.

This would add five true rivalry games to the Big 12 lineup:

WVU-Pitt
Cincy-Pitt
Cincy-Louisville
Cincy-Memphis
Louisville-Memphis

Plus driving distance games WVU-Cincy, WVU-Louisville, and Pitt-Louisville. The eastern branch would give the Big 12 a solid group of games from which to pick for the 12pm ET kickoff...in addition to UCF's home inventory.

Interestingly, this would essentially lay a Big 12 eastern branch right along the B1G-SEC border. The move would also push ACC football out of the Midwest fringes and essentially back into a smaller regional conference.

And, the Big 12 isn't stuck like the ACC with a lackluster TV deal for the next 15 years.

Big 12 scheduling divisions:
EAST: Pitt, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, Memphis
NORTH: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, BYU
SOUTH: Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston, UCF

4-2-2 schedule would guarantee everyone a game in Texas 4 out of 5 years.

BYU and UCF are geographic outliers, but they are programs that can hold their own with OOC rivalries and other unique factors.

The expanded new Big 12 basketball would be ridiculous.

The difference is the ACC has a deal for the next 15 years. When the Big 12 gets one they can talk to getting teams from the other power conferences. The ACC is the only power conference currently with ZERO teams west of the Mississippi. You're talking about proximate schools so why should Pitt and Louisville leave a conference with no schools west of the Mississippi for a conference with more than half west of it and one in the Mountain Time Zone? The Big 12 should be happy the ACC doesn't want West Virginia, Cincinnati, or UCF.

(01-12-2022 11:30 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Have fun with that ACC GOR.

Not to mention the exit penalties which are approaching $100 million (each). It would take those three schools a very long time to recoup all that from the Big 12 payout.

(01-12-2022 11:42 AM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  Pitt and Louisville are in a MUCH better situation now. Even without the GOR I could see either of them being interested.

I don't think they're in a "MUCH better situation" now, but they are trapped in it by the GoR for the time being. And I certainly don't think either of them is willing to blaze the trail against the GoR in order to make a lateral move to the Big XII, they likely do both prefer the current ACC setup. The problem for them is that the current ACC is unlikely to survive, and there is nothing Pitt & Louisville can do to alter that. It won't start with them or be about them, they'll just have to decide whether to bail out or try to rebuild in a rump ACC someday.

Both conferences are less stable than the SEC, B1G and PAC. But I think the XII has a better chance of retaining all of its current members if we could look ahead ten years from now. They're all basically available now, and the big boys have declined to take them. Not the case at all with the ACC, once the GoR is breached/expired. And what will be left in the XII is a far stronger base to build a conference around than the ACC schools who aren't likely to find better homes in the B1G & SEC.

(01-12-2022 12:43 PM)otown Wrote:  

(01-12-2022 11:30 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Have fun with that ACC GOR.

Whenever the GOR expires, all it takes is the SEC and or B1G to make some moves on the ACC, which overlaps their territory. After that, I can easily see some of these teams jumping ship to the Big 12.

This is absurd.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Nobody will leave the ACC for the Big 12. If anything it will be the other way around.

(01-12-2022 01:00 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(01-12-2022 11:42 AM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  Pitt and Louisville are in a MUCH better situation now. Even without the GOR I could see either of them being interested.

I don't think they're in a "MUCH better situation" now, but they are trapped in it by the GoR for the time being. And I certainly don't think either of them is willing to blaze the trail against the GoR in order to make a lateral move to the Big XII, they likely do both prefer the current ACC setup. The problem for them is that the current ACC is unlikely to survive, and there is nothing Pitt & Louisville can do to alter that. It won't start with them or be about them, they'll just have to decide whether to bail out or try to rebuild in a rump ACC someday.

Both conferences are less stable than the SEC, B1G and PAC. But I think the XII has a better chance of retaining all of its current members if we could look ahead ten years from now. They're all basically available now, and the big boys have declined to take them. Not the case at all with the ACC, once the GoR is breached/expired. And what will be left in the XII is a far stronger base to build a conference around than the ACC schools who aren't likely to find better homes in the B1G & SEC.

Less stable than then the BIG, SEC & PAC perhaps, but 1000% more stable than the B12. The B12 has lost six teams in the past 10 years and the fact that they are in the middle of the country makes them vulnerable to losing more.

(01-12-2022 01:14 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  

(01-12-2022 01:00 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(01-12-2022 11:42 AM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  Pitt and Louisville are in a MUCH better situation now. Even without the GOR I could see either of them being interested.

I don't think they're in a "MUCH better situation" now, but they are trapped in it by the GoR for the time being. And I certainly don't think either of them is willing to blaze the trail against the GoR in order to make a lateral move to the Big XII, they likely do both prefer the current ACC setup. The problem for them is that the current ACC is unlikely to survive, and there is nothing Pitt & Louisville can do to alter that. It won't start with them or be about them, they'll just have to decide whether to bail out or try to rebuild in a rump ACC someday.

Both conferences are less stable than the SEC, B1G and PAC. But I think the XII has a better chance of retaining all of its current members if we could look ahead ten years from now. They're all basically available now, and the big boys have declined to take them. Not the case at all with the ACC, once the GoR is breached/expired. And what will be left in the XII is a far stronger base to build a conference around than the ACC schools who aren't likely to find better homes in the B1G & SEC.

Less stable than then the BIG, SEC & PAC perhaps, but 1000% more stable than the B12. The B12 has lost six teams in the past 10 years and the fact that they are in the middle of the country makes them vulnerable to losing more.

I agree with you that the central location of the Big XII makes them the only conference who is potentially vulnerable to be poached by any or all of the other P5 conferences. But you're ignoring the fact that 2021 was the ideal time for such poaching, and everybody passed on the remaining Big XII members. So I believe the XII is MORE stable because the other conferences aren't willing to expand in order to get their members, whereas I do not believe that to be the case with the ACC. We'll know for sure once the ACC GoR is breached/expired, and then see what the SEC & B1G do.

(01-12-2022 11:22 AM)YNot Wrote:  The new Big 12 will have no football Kings.

But, *rivalry* games and proximate schools compete for interest, attendance, and eyeballs.

This would add five true rivalry games to the Big 12 lineup:

WVU-Pitt
Cincy-Pitt
Cincy-Louisville
Cincy-Memphis
Louisville-Memphis

Plus driving distance games WVU-Cincy, WVU-Louisville, and Pitt-Louisville. The eastern branch would give the Big 12 a solid group of games from which to pick for the 12pm ET kickoff...in addition to UCF's home inventory.

Interestingly, this would essentially lay a Big 12 eastern branch right along the B1G-SEC border. The move would also push ACC football out of the Midwest fringes and essentially back into a smaller regional conference.

And, the Big 12 isn't stuck like the ACC with a lackluster TV deal for the next 15 years.

Big 12 scheduling divisions:
EAST: Pitt, WVU, Cincy, Louisville, Memphis
NORTH: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, BYU
SOUTH: Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston, UCF

4-2-2 schedule would guarantee everyone a game in Texas 4 out of 5 years.

BYU and UCF are geographic outliers, but they are programs that can hold their own with OOC rivalries and other unique factors.

The expanded new Big 12 basketball would be ridiculous.

I think it would be good if schools like WVU, Cincy, Pitt and Louisville were in the same conference (hint, the Big East).

But I don't think the new B12 has any chance of grabbing ACC teams, far more likely would be WV and Cincy leaving for the ACC, if the ACC wanted them.

Plus, adding those schools doesn't solve the new Big 12's no big names problem.

Pitt would only go to the Big Ten.

I'll even play along with your idea that the ACC is vulnerable and after the GOR the SEC and Big Ten pick the "top" members apart. Historically there has been a "food chain" of conferences and the conference that gets raided almost always raids a "lesser" conference. When the ACC raided the Big East back in the 2000's, they raided Conference USA, which then raided the WAC. When the SEC nabbed Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 raided the AAC, which then (along with the Sun Belt) picked Conference USA clean. There was talk that the AAC was going to go after Big 12 teams since the Big 12 got pantsed, kind of like you think the Big 12 will be able to go after the ACC here. Turns out it was the other way around. Very rarely does the chain reverse.

I think the key is the Big 12 needs to establish their new identity post Texas/Oklahoma. Obviously with the big dogs it was easy to. The New Big 12 still has four teams in Texas but they now have three teams in the Eastern Time Zone (vs. one in the old days) and one in the Mountain Time Zone and none of the Texas schools is a "power" in the state. If the Big 12 still wants to market itself as a "Texas" conference, what interest will Pitt and Louisville have? There will likely be plenty of Eastern schools to rebuild the "ACC". But if you're marketing the Big 12 to Pitt, Louisville, and Memphis, how will the Texas and Kansas schools feel? Is there a major conference whose members span three time zones? I thought New Jersey to Nebraska was far, now it's Florida to Utah! I'm sure UCF's first trip to Provo in the middle of winter won't be pleasant. If the Big 12 can make UCF, BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati along with the eight holdovers feel at home in the same conference, then they might be able to convince others to join although historically teams don't move from conferences perceived as "better" to those perceived as "lesser" in general.

Quote:I think it would be good if schools like WVU, Cincy, Pitt and Louisville were in the same conference (hint, the Big East).

But I don't think the new B12 has any chance of grabbing ACC teams, far more likely would be WV and Cincy leaving for the ACC, if the ACC wanted them.

Plus, adding those schools doesn't solve the new Big 12's no big names problem.

THIS.

(01-12-2022 01:26 PM)curtis0620 Wrote:  Pitt would only go to the Big Ten.

THIS.


Besides. The SEC is already at 16. The bar to increase revenues for any newcomers is ridiculously high. I just don't see them wanting to expand beyond what they already have.

.

The B12 isn't in a position to add anyone from the P5 until it shows it can stabilize, remain competitive and maintain strong ratings/interest. P5 teams were already considered before adding BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. Losing the two biggest brands in the conference leaves long term question marks. I'm optimistic that the new adds will help to get there and the hoops upside is tremendous but time will tell.