I think we are heading to a time where players will be paid in addition to a scholarship, room, and board. However, I think it will still be run by the NCAA, they will still be student-athletes, and colleges will only be required to pay revenue sports athletes.

Here is my theory: I think the NCAA will lose the court case and colleges will have to play players. I don’t think it will be the wild west though. Nobody will be getting paid even six figures by universities. I believe a yearly figure (with inflation adjustments yearly) will be paid to mens and womens basketball and football players. That will be paid to all equally (NIL will continue to be the bonus) and paying players will be required to remain Division 1. I think the number will be between 40-50k a year.


Most Division 1 schools will oblige. This includes Notre Dame, Northwestern and other major private institutions. I think everybody in the P5, Big East, G5, A-10, WCC, and MVC will comply. I think the Ivy League will opt out, and military academies may as well. In the end I expect about 200-300 schools to remain.

(01-13-2022 01:16 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I think we are heading to a time where players will be paid in addition to a scholarship, room, and board. However, I think it will still be run by the NCAA, they will still be student-athletes, and colleges will only be required to pay revenue sports athletes.

Here is my theory: I think the NCAA will lose the court case and colleges will have to play players. I don’t think it will be the wild west though. Nobody will be getting paid even six figures by universities. I believe a yearly figure (with inflation adjustments yearly) will be paid to mens and womens basketball and football players. That will be paid to all equally (NIL will continue to be the bonus) and paying players will be required to remain Division 1. I think the number will be between 40-50k a year.


Most Division 1 schools will oblige. This includes Notre Dame, Northwestern and other major private institutions. I think everybody in the P5, Big East, G5, A-10, WCC, and MVC will comply. I think the Ivy League will opt out, and military academies may as well. In the end I expect about 200-300 schools to remain.

What you're describing is inherently illegal and why the NCAA is getting dragged into court in the first place.

That's the whole point: schools cannot collectively decide what they will pay or not pay to athletes. That's illegal in every other industry in America outside of unionized workplaces where compensation is collectively bargained.

Now, what constitutes the "Wild West" is a matter of opinion. As with any free market, we'll likely settle upon what is "industry standard" compensation for talent. We just don't know what those numbers are as of yet because it's all new and, most important, no one can *collectively* decide to do so. That's an inherent violation of antitrust law.

And to be sure, I'm perfectly fine with all of this here. Athletes should be able to wring every single dollar of compensation in the exact same manner as the coaches and universities. I've believed that to be the case for many years.

IMO, the NCAA and conferences and schools will have nothing to say about paying players. The courts are going to decide this.

Those schools can then decide if they want to pay players according to court rules, or abandon intercollegiate athletics as we've known it, maybe return sports to a club level, etc.

I can actually see the latter happening. IMO, once players get formally paid, we're now just talking about colleges running minor league football and basketball teams.

And what kind of prominence does minor-league baseball have? The money could drain right out of it.

(01-13-2022 01:44 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 01:16 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I think we are heading to a time where players will be paid in addition to a scholarship, room, and board. However, I think it will still be run by the NCAA, they will still be student-athletes, and colleges will only be required to pay revenue sports athletes.

Here is my theory: I think the NCAA will lose the court case and colleges will have to play players. I don’t think it will be the wild west though. Nobody will be getting paid even six figures by universities. I believe a yearly figure (with inflation adjustments yearly) will be paid to mens and womens basketball and football players. That will be paid to all equally (NIL will continue to be the bonus) and paying players will be required to remain Division 1. I think the number will be between 40-50k a year.


Most Division 1 schools will oblige. This includes Notre Dame, Northwestern and other major private institutions. I think everybody in the P5, Big East, G5, A-10, WCC, and MVC will comply. I think the Ivy League will opt out, and military academies may as well. In the end I expect about 200-300 schools to remain.

What you're describing is inherently illegal and why the NCAA is getting dragged into court in the first place.

That's the whole point: schools cannot collectively decide what they will pay or not pay to athletes. That's illegal in every other industry in America outside of unionized workplaces where compensation is collectively bargained.

Now, what constitutes the "Wild West" is a matter of opinion. As with any free market, we'll likely settle upon what is "industry standard" compensation for talent. We just don't know what those numbers are as of yet because it's all new and, most important, no one can *collectively* decide to do so. That's an inherent violation of antitrust law.

And to be sure, I'm perfectly fine with all of this here. Athletes should be able to wring every single dollar of compensation in the exact same manner as the coaches and universities. I've believed that to be the case for many years.

Do you think there will be a scenario where the 100 or so most important schools break off into an organization that still is centered on student-athletes but there is a players unions (like the NFL or NBA) that negotiates the salaries of athletes with the schools?

(01-13-2022 02:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the NCAA and conferences and schools will have nothing to say about paying players. The courts are going to decide this.

Those schools can then decide if they want to pay players according to court rules, or abandon intercollegiate athletics as we've known it, maybe return sports to a club level, etc.

I can actually see the latter happening. IMO, once players get formally paid, we're now just talking about colleges running minor league football and basketball teams.

And what kind of prominence does minor-league baseball have? The money could drain right out of it.

I don't see it being the equivalent of minor league sports because people route for their alma maters. It's not the same as a local AA baseball team.

Minor league baseball players are not unionized and they're treated like crap comparatively to other paid athletes in the United States.

If and when the SCOTUS rules that college Athletes are employees this coming summer, everything will change. Universities will have to decide if they want to participate or drop sports all together. There will be a new governing body created for the creation of a new pay for play model and it won't be the NCAA. Bigger than this new structure will be the fact that college athletes will unionize in order to ensure fair compensation from any and all participating universities.

The NIL is childs play, pay for play will rock college athletics to it's core.

(01-13-2022 03:40 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  Minor league baseball players are not unionized and they're treated like crap comparatively to other paid athletes in the United States.

If and when the SCOTUS rules that college Athletes are employees this coming summer, everything will change. Universities will have to decide if they want to participate or drop sports all together. There will be a new governing body created for the creation of a new pay for play model and it won't be the NCAA. Bigger than this new structure will be the fact that college athletes will unionize in order to ensure fair compensation from any and all participating universities.

The NIL is childs play, pay for play will rock college athletics to it's core.

Or it could be as simple as a football player deciding to go to school x because school y doesn't pay well enough to suit him. As long as there is a limit to the the number of players per team, you could have the same disparity and number of teams you have now.

(01-13-2022 03:04 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(01-13-2022 02:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the NCAA and conferences and schools will have nothing to say about paying players. The courts are going to decide this.

Those schools can then decide if they want to pay players according to court rules, or abandon intercollegiate athletics as we've known it, maybe return sports to a club level, etc.

I can actually see the latter happening. IMO, once players get formally paid, we're now just talking about colleges running minor league football and basketball teams.

And what kind of prominence does minor-league baseball have? The money could drain right out of it.

I don't see it being the equivalent of minor league sports because people route for their alma maters. It's not the same as a local AA baseball team.

I think people will lose the emotional connection to their alma mater's football team. They won't see these paid players as representing the university the way they do now.