(11-28-2021 10:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 07:47 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 03:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:45 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  .....just curious. Is the eye test or style points only applied to games that Cincinnati plays? For example, did Alabama pass the eye test when they lost their game to a 4 loss A&M squad? Did Bama achieve the required amount of style points when they needed 4 OT's to escape a 6 loss Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing with a backup Quarterback. This eye test, style points thing is so confusing.

You have to remember that Auburn and Texas AM are in a different league than the 4-loss and 6-loss teams Cincy plays. These teams lose to basically nobody but other SEC teams. The only non-SEC loss they have is to Penn State.

Auburn is a far more talented team than the six-loss teams Cincy plays. According to 24/7, at the start of the season, Auburn's roster had 40 guys who were rated at the 4-star or 5-star level (35 four-star, five five-star). That's as many 4* and 5* star guys as Cincy, ECU, Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF have put together. And really moreso, because those six schools have zero 5* guys, together they have 39 four-star guys.

And most other SEC teams are like this too. Lower-level SEC teams like Mississippi State and Kentucky have 19 and 21 four or five star guys.

So every week, you are playing teams with talented, physical athletes, whether the team is having a good year or not. That's draining in a way that playing Navy, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulsa, etc. week after week is not.

So Alabama squeaking by an Auburn team with that kind of talent, in front of 90,000 crazed Auburn fans (something again that AAC teams never see on the road), is not something to be denigrated.

That deserves a lot of extra consideration, IMO.

Cool story.......so what you're saying is that Bama did infact pass the eye test, smell test, and picked up style points by taking 4 OT's to survive a 6-6 Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing a backup at Quarterback. Thanks for clearing that up. This is all so confusing.

It shouldn't be confusing, IMO. I explained why close results vs Auburn shouldn't be compared to close results vs teams like Tulsa or Temple, etc.

Next time you bring up close wins, make sure you list the right team, lol.

Cincy has had 2 “close wins”. The rest have been convincing or absolute blowouts. Come on.

Unlike UCF a few years ago, there are a whole lot of flawed top ten teams this year. I’d have a hard time leaving Cincinnati out if they beat Houston. Not that it will be a consideration for them/Houston/UCF in a couple years, but given the relative difference in overall strength between P5 and G5 conferences, the top G5’s should stop scheduling FCS completely and should probably have 2, maybe 3, P5 opponents on the OOC.

Kudos to Cincinnati for actually scheduling what would have been expected to be a top 10/15 opponent in ND. I’ll be pulling for them to make it in if they beat Houston.

(11-28-2021 10:46 PM)VCE Wrote:  Unlike UCF a few years ago, there are a whole lot of flawed top ten teams this year. I’d have a hard time leaving Cincinnati out if they beat Houston. Not that it will be a consideration for them/Houston/UCF in a couple years, but given the relative difference in overall strength between P5 and G5 conferences, the top G5’s should stop scheduling FCS completely and should probably have 2, maybe 3, P5 opponents on the OOC.

Kudos to Cincinnati for actually scheduling what would have been expected to be a top 10/15 opponent in ND. I’ll be pulling for them to make it in if they beat Houston.

G5 teams need a H game without going on the road too. What don’t people get about that? Cincinnati isn’t getting a return game.

I think they should put OSU ahead of UC this week and move UC back to 5. The reason is I don’t think you can justify moving OSU back up to 4 in lieu of a slew of upsets when they are sitting idle… so:

1. UGa 12-0
2. UM 11-1
3. Bama 11-1
4. OSU 10-2
5. UC 12-0
6. ND 11-1
7. OSU 11-1
8. Baylor 10-2

This way, OSU is jumped so long as UC takes care of business. If UC loses, both UC and ND fall back and the Big 12 champ jumps into 4, with OSU/Bama taking the last spot in the 2 or 3. This is the most politically expedient thing to do, because I don’t think there is any argument to justify ND over UC.

If UC wins, I think ND is still out because OSU should be ahead of ND even at two losses based on SOS. Okie State also easily slides in ahead of ND and OSU with a win on a neutral field.

I don’t see a path for ND.

Wow. Didn’t think of keeping Ohio State above Notre Dame. I could see that.

(11-29-2021 07:44 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Wow. Didn’t think of keeping Ohio State above Notre Dame. I could see that.

If OSU is ahead of the Irish, it's dead give away that ND cannot get ahead of even one loss UC, nor should they. There is no scenario where all three would get in over the Big 12 Champ IMO, even if UM loses. ND is effectively eliminated if the committee plays it correctly, thus avoiding a UC/ND debate entirely.

(11-29-2021 07:24 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I think they should put OSU ahead of UC this week and move UC back to 5. The reason is I don’t think you can justify moving OSU back up to 4 in lieu of a slew of upsets when they are sitting idle… so:

1. UGa 12-0
2. UM 11-1
3. Bama 11-1
4. OSU 10-2
5. UC 12-0
6. ND 11-1
7. OSU 11-1
8. Baylor 10-2

This way, OSU is jumped so long as UC takes care of business. If UC loses, both UC and ND fall back and the Big 12 champ jumps into 4, with OSU/Bama taking the last spot in the 2 or 3. This is the most politically expedient thing to do, because I don’t think there is any argument to justify ND over UC.

If UC wins, I think ND is still out because OSU should be ahead of ND even at two losses based on SOS. Okie State also easily slides in ahead of ND and OSU with a win on a neutral field.

I don’t see a path for ND.

The thing is, while Ohio State's SOS (Sagarin) is #16, ND's is #38. IMO, not enough of a gap to overcome an extra loss. So I don't mind ND getting in over Ohio State and I expect they would, though that would very likely mean they still miss the playoffs.

Now, if Oklahoma State beats Baylor, their final SOS will be much better than Cincy's, so I would like to see OK State move past Cincy in the final rankings if both win their CCGs.

I think your pre-CCG top 4 would be the best outcome for the actual playoffs - Georgia, Michigan, Alabama and OK State. We'd have the champs of the three strongest conferences, plus Alabama, the defending champ (or SEC champ).

If someone wants chaos, the best result to hope for is Iowa upending Michigan in the B1G CCG. That will create a mess, and even raise the possibility of the B1G missing out on the CFP.

Computer Committee Competition
Final Six
Georgia (E 177, C 133, F 0)
Michigan (E 99, C 186, F 0)
Cincinnati (E 143, C 131, F 0)
Alabama (E 261, C 0, F 127)
Notre Dame (E 105, C 245, F 0)
OK State (E 35, C 0, F 164)

538 is eliminated. The only way they can even score 2nd (above me) is if Michigan and Notre Dame are the two teams that miss the playoff.

First place is ESPN's to lose. I have invested more in only two properties, Michigan and Notre Dame, but I have stayed pretty close on all but Alabama. I win only if Notre Dame is in AND Alabama is out. Anyone want to give me odds?

I suppose there is the remote possibility Michigan, Notre Dame, AND Alabama all miss the playoff. If additionally Baylor is in over OK State, I win. Otherwise, if #4 is Iowa, I also win, but if it is Ohio State, ESPN wins; 538 would go back to 3rd.

Well, may dodge a perception bullet. I had OK State finishing behind Notre Dame and Alabama. I suppose even if OKSt comes back in the second half, it is possible this still holds true.

For the Computer Competition it solidifies 538 in 3rd place, but creates little margin for me to top ESPN. Georgia, Cincinnati, and Michigan must all win for Notre Dame to have a shot at replacing Alabama in the Top 4.

(11-23-2021 05:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-23-2021 05:11 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-23-2021 04:55 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Here are my overall odds. Notre Dame is so high primarily because their resume is essentially complete. I have the Big 12 Champ so low primarily because I think they don't compare favorably against any other 1-loss Power team.

Playoff %
1) 99.59% Georgia
2) 78.18% Notre Dame
3) 67.83% Cincinnati
4) 52.6% Alabama
5) 52.34% Ohio St
6) 34.34% Michigan
7) 7.76% OK State
8) 5.51% Oklahoma
9) 0.72% Michigan St
10) 0.42% Iowa
11) 0.24% Ole Miss
12) 0.24% UTSA
13) 0.23% Wisconsin

The Notre Dame odds are way too high. 538 has them at about 22% playoff chance. ND needs a lot of help to make the playoffs. Maybe if Cincinnati loses and B12 has a 2-loss champ.

Also believe that the B12 teams are too low. With the exception of Kansas, B12 is very good.

If Oklahoma is the champion, they're not going to have even like a top 15 win. Terrible OOC schedule.

ND really doesn't need much. Alabama and Oklahoma St losing should do the trick.

Thanks to you and others for providing feedback. I've adjusted some parameters (diminishing returns for scoring while already blowing an opponent out, power bonus for wins), and achieved a result more aligned with the perception of teams' playoff chances.

Adjustments below in bold heading into Rivalry Week.

(11-21-2021 08:08 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Guarantees >95%
Win Out: Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Cincinnati
1-loss At Large: Georgia

Contenders >66%
11-2 Alabama Champ
11-1 Notre Dame (replaced by 12-1 OK State)

Need Help >33%
11-2 Alabama loss to Georgia
11-2 OSU/UM winner after loss to BTWest (11-1 Notre Dame falls here, bumping OSU/UM)

Longshots >5%
12-1 OK State/Oklahoma win out (Oklahoma still here)
(11-2 OSU/UM winner losing to Iowa/Wisconsin belongs here)
11-2 Iowa Champ (Wisconsin jumps here; Iowa drops out completely)
(12-1 Cincinnati whether the loss is to ECU or Houston)

Complete Chaos <5% (and all are <1% with the update)
10-2 Ohio State, Michigan St, Michigan (10-2 MSU ain't makin' it)
10-3 Wisconsin (elevated to longshot, barely)
10-2 Ole Miss
13-0 UTSA
12-1 Cincinnati Champ (elevated to longshot)
(11-2 OK State gets in at least 1/10,000)

(11-28-2021 08:17 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Notre Dame is in unless Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati all win. Alabama is in with a loss so long as either Michigan or Cincinnati lose. If Michigan and Cincinnati BOTH lose, it looks like OK State, Iowa, and even Michigan might still get that 4th spot. There is also an 8% chance the above is deviated from due to a blowout here or there.

100% Georgia (100%)
100% 12-1 Alabama (25%)
100% 12-1 Michigan (77%)
100% 13-0 Cincinnati (79%)
84% 11-1 Notre Dame (100%)
39% 11-2 Alabama (74%)
8% 11-2 Michigan (22%)
4% 12-1 OK State (61%)
0% 11-2 Iowa (22%)

Overall Playoff %
1) 100% Georgia
2) 84% Notre Dame
3) 79.33% Cincinnati
4) 79.08% Michigan
5) 54.84% Alabama
6) 2.68% OK State
7) 0.07% Iowa

Top G5 Champ %
1) 79.33% Cincinnati
2) 15.18% San Diego St
3) 5.23% Houston
4) 0.26% UTSA

And here are the updated numbers going into the CCGs. OK State has a ~95% chance of getting in if one of Alabama, Cincy, or Michigan lose. Notre Dame is next in line, ~75% of the time. Alabama needs 2 of OK State, Cincy, and Michigan to lose, though there is a 25% chance they stay above Notre Dame if they play Georgia close.

100% (12-0)+L Georgia (26%)
100% (12-0)+W Georgia (73%)
100% (11-1)+W Alabama (26%)
100% (11-1)+W Michigan (79%)
100% (12-0)+W Cincinnati (81%)
80% (11-1)+W OK State (65%)
35% (11-1)+L Alabama (73%)
32% (11-1) Notre Dame (100%)
1% (11-1)+L Michigan (20%)
1% (10-2) Ohio St (100%)
0% (10-2) Ole Miss (100%)
Can only argue that Baylor not Ole Miss should be vying with Ohio State and Michigan for that chaos spot.