(01-02-2022 10:07 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: I am born from a different era. I yell at the TV and say “Take the ball to the effing hole!” constantly. Somebody will point to some sort of analytic, but 2 is better than 0.
Alright. I'll bite. I know people view me as stats reliant, but I like to cite them as they are expressions of what is happening on the floor. Sadly, I don't have the stats on a couple things I'd like to bring up so I'm going to be shooting in the dark based on observation in those areas.
If my two options are get to the rim and get a layup or shoot a 3 I am taking the layup option every time. Sadly, that is not how basketball works in reality.
Part of the reason for this team's regression is teams have realized the extent of how terrible this team is shooting the basketball. They wall off the lane against us and it's not hat hard to do when you're not afraid of shots. Early in the year this team did a good job getting to the rim, particularly early in the shot clock. They were good at being aggressive off the dribble and putting pressure on their man. Teams are not letting them do it anymore.
Tulane is a good example. Tulane plays a 2-3 zone, but it's typically a 2-3 zone that is really aggressive with it's pressure on the perimeter. For a zone team they force a bunch of turnovers. But last night, their defense wasn't extended at all. They packed the lane, gave up looks and trusted UC would miss.
And here is where roster flaws come in...because not only do the Bearcats lack shooting to an unbelievable degree, like I've really never seen before from a team at this level, they don't have wings that can break you down and create for others with any regularity, and they don't have post up bigs that can beat their many and score over them (Lahkin has shown it in flashes but looks terrible at times too...i think he is going to be pretty damn good in a year or 2...he isn't there now). So the choices aren't actually, get to the rim and take 2 points or take an open 3 with your bad shooters.
So here's where the stats come in. UC doesn't actually take a ton of 3s. They are 166th nationally in 3 point attempts per fg attempt. That's squarely in the middle group of teams in the country. Now you might say, yea but when you're that bad at it you should be far below...but they aren't just bad 3 point shooters they are bad shooters. So the alternative shots to those 3s aren't high efficiency 2s, they are far more likely to be low efficiency 2 point jumpers or post ups from bad post players.
Here;s where I wish I had better stats for you. UC is around a 50% shooting team from 2 but that includes layups and dunks. So including layups and dunks they are right around 1 point per possession from 2. They're shooting 29% from three. That's .87 points per possession, which is abysmal. But they'd need to shoot 43.5% on two point jumpers to equal that...does anyone think these guys could shoot that on 2 point jumpers? They'd need to shoot 43.5% on post ups to equal that. Nearly every NBA team is below 50% on post ups. They aren't typically efficient plays. I'd be stunned if we're even at 40% on post ups and 2 point jump shots as a team (I wish I had those numbers, they are out there somewhere, if anyone can find them let me know).
That doesn't mean there isn't a place for post ups and there isn't a place for 2 point jumpers. We take a lot of 2 point jumpers, we don't post up much because we dont have good post players or passing guards and teams wall off the lane making post entry hard. Our problem is teams know we can't shoot. They give up shots from 3 and from 2. They crowd the lane knowing we aren't scoring unless we get layups. I'd guess our most efficient scoring plays are in this order:
1. Free throws (yea think about that)
2. Layups
3. 3 point shots
4. Post ups
5. 2 point jumpers.
The problem is, we can't get 1 and 2 when teams aren't at all afraid of 3-5 and we don't have any Cumberland/SK type guys to break down the defense, nor post up guys to dominate the lane. When you look at it this way our shot distribution makes a ton of sense and being middle of the pack in 3 point attempts makes a ton of sense.