(01-02-2022 02:40 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  If we do end up with a coaching search (I imagine it's unlikely), think we should at least kick the tires on Brent Scott and Carlin Hartman. Scott obviously played here (and is in the HOF) and had two assistant coaching stints at Rice. Hartman has actually had three stints at Rice (1996, 2002-2004, 2014-2016). Not fully sold on either's commitment to Rice, because they've obviously left for better jobs a combined five times. But I'm not sure we'd find somebody who fits what we're looking for more than Hartman. Has coached at Rice for 6+ years so he has Texas ties and understands the school. Has coached at Rice, Columbia, and Richmond, and played at Tulane, so he understands the academic side of things. When he was at Rice under Rhoades players loved him. Not sure he'd consider coming back, since he's in his first year as an assistant at UNLV (and clearly is loyal to the Kruger family) and I'm not certain he actually wants to be a head coach.

I recall hearing that Brent Scott was more than miffed when he was not granted an interview when the search to replace Rhoades started, so who knows if that bad blood has simmered down. Source is a former Rice basketball player.

There is way too much doom and gloom on this board about the basketball program right now. The team has played 12 games and have been competitive in 9 of them. The players have been inactive due to Covid protocols since just after December 19 until a day or 2 before the North Texas game, missing 2 games and a bunch of practices. I agree that the post play of Fiedler so far has not progressed from year 2 to year 3 like they did last year. Poteat was injured most of his first season so it is difficult to gauge his progress but I believe he has an opportunity to be a real asset in the post with the right coaching and experience. If that wasn't the case Abercrombie would be getting Poteat's minutes.

Each year we have seen the players coached by Coach Pera improve tangibly during the season and this is the deepest squad (in terms of talent) we have seen in years.

All of that being said, I recognize that the team will not succeed this season unless the post play improves dramatically....quickly. Otherwise teams will queue on the same perimeter focused defense that U of H and North Texas successfully utilized to shut down the offense. Secondly, if Chris Mullins (or any other starter) can't make their free throws, they need to see more bench time. This team is deep enough to make that change, even though Mullins can drive to the bucket better than most of the other guards on the Owls.

Like most of you, I have many opinions about changes and schemes I would like the team to utilize...that is half the fun of being a fan! ... but I don't have the fatalistic attitude I sometimes see by some posters on the board. I have been following the team closely as a season ticket holder since about 1987 and went to many games prior to buying season tickets so I have seen some good and very bad teams at Autry/Tudor.

This team is fun to watch and I have met several of the players and they are really extraordinary young men. I intend to be at both games this week (unless the attendance protocols change) and support this team.

(01-03-2022 09:48 AM)Kayjay Wrote:  There is way too much doom and gloom on this board about the basketball program right now. The team has played 12 games and have been competitive in 9 of them. The players have been inactive due to Covid protocols since just after December 19 until a day or 2 before the North Texas game, missing 2 games and a bunch of practices. I agree that the post play of Fiedler so far has not progressed from year 2 to year 3 like they did last year. Poteat was injured most of his first season so it is difficult to gauge his progress but I believe he has an opportunity to be a real asset in the post with the right coaching and experience. If that wasn't the case Abercrombie would be getting Poteat's minutes.

Each year we have seen the players coached by Coach Pera improve tangibly during the season and this is the deepest squad (in terms of talent) we have seen in years.

All of that being said, I recognize that the team will not succeed this season unless the post play improves dramatically....quickly. Otherwise teams will queue on the same perimeter focused defense that U of H and North Texas successfully utilized to shut down the offense. Secondly, if Chris Mullins (or any other starter) can't make their free throws, they need to see more bench time. This team is deep enough to make that change, even though Mullins can drive to the bucket better than most of the other guards on the Owls.

Like most of you, I have many opinions about changes and schemes I would like the team to utilize...that is half the fun of being a fan! ... but I don't have the fatalistic attitude I sometimes see by some posters on the board. I have been following the team closely as a season ticket holder since about 1987 and went to many games prior to buying season tickets so I have seen some good and very bad teams at Autry/Tudor.

This team is fun to watch and I have met several of the players and they are really extraordinary young men. I intend to be at both games this week (unless the attendance protocols change) and support this team.

Exactly.

It's absolutely correct that Pera has done well retaining players and building a team that Rice as a university can be proud of. And that shouldn't be ignored. But here's the cold truth. Pera's best KP defensive ranking has been 261 (let's for now set aside our current ranking of 300). In 2018-2019, here were the top three KP teams with a defense ranked 250+: #93 Hofstra (262 D), #109 Utah (257 D), and #140 ULM (271 D). In 2019-2020: #156 Western Carolina (263 D), #166 UNF (324 D), and #172 Austin Peay (275 D). In the shortened 2020-2021 season: #153 VMI (269 D), #159 South Dakota (267 D), and #160 UTSA (252 D). Combined, that means in the last three years there have been three teams with a defense ranked 250+ that have finished 150th or better in KenPom (in 2017-18 the best team was Mercer at #153). That's not good. But our offense is decent, right? We're ranked 86th (we won't stay that high...we've really only played three decent/good defensive teams all season). The average offensive ranking of the nine teams above was 63.6. For the three teams that have finished 150th or better, the average offensive ranking was 26.3.

All of this is to say that our current path under Pera leads nowhere good, unless we're happy finishing somewhere between 175-225 every season. That sucks. All of us are rooting for Pera, all of us are rooting for the players. Nobody wants to have to deal with declining or flatlining football AND basketball programs at the same time. But the reality is that Pera is failing on the court. Would the next guy do better? Nobody knows. Rice is a ridiculously tough gig. But Pera needs to find a magic switch and he needs to find it soon.

I don't know how fun it was to play against North Texas, much less watch it. I doubt it was much fun for the players. Most of the teams we've played haven't been very good.... and while this may be the best team we've had in years, unfortunately our previous incarnations aren't on our schedule... and we aren't recruiting against them.

I have no doubt that these are all fine young men and players... that isn't the point at all and those who choose to make it about that are just flat wrong. These kids were offered an opportunity and they took it, and I am 100% convinced that they are giving their all....

But this isn't the reality of todays athletics. The reality is that if you're not good, you will consistently have trouble recruiting better players, and if you find and develop a better player, you will risk him transferring to a better team or league.

We need to establish an identity... recruit (both in high schools and from other teams) to it and win. You can't have 'moral victories' against 150-200 ranked teams.... unless they are perennial names who just happen to be having a horrible (by their standards) year. You need butts in the seats. You need fans whom players want to come play in front of.

Losing isn't okay if you have a good enough excuse... but it IS okay if you're shooting for the stars. Losing half your games to (just making up a number) top 50 teams is not the goal, but if it happens, it happens. The goal should be to beat everyone who ISN"T a top 50 team, and argue that you should be ranked no lower than 51.... because if you do that, you will occasionally BEAT that top 50 team... and what does that make you??

It is fighting the good fight, with an occasional win that makes it worth it. NOT simply lowering the bar until you can step over it... or being 'better than last years team'. Those are hollow goals.

I didn't say this was a deep team.,.... and wouldn't.... because to me, A 'deep' team ranked north of 200 is perhaps the worst possible place to be. It means that you have a whole bunch of mediocre players. I didn't say that about this team, but I say that about the description. In basketball, you can win a whole lot and scare the hell out of some great teams with one great player and a cast of supporting roles.... see Ricky Pierce, but you won't be very deep.

(01-03-2022 01:03 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  It's absolutely correct that Pera has done well retaining players and building a team that Rice as a university can be proud of. And that shouldn't be ignored. But here's the cold truth. Pera's best KP defensive ranking has been 261 (let's for now set aside our current ranking of 300). In 2018-2019, here were the top three KP teams with a defense ranked 250+: #93 Hofstra (262 D), #109 Utah (257 D), and #140 ULM (271 D). In 2019-2020: #156 Western Carolina (263 D), #166 UNF (324 D), and #172 Austin Peay (275 D). In the shortened 2020-2021 season: #153 VMI (269 D), #159 South Dakota (267 D), and #160 UTSA (252 D). Combined, that means in the last three years there have been three teams with a defense ranked 250+ that have finished 150th or better in KenPom (in 2017-18 the best team was Mercer at #153). That's not good. But our offense is decent, right? We're ranked 86th (we won't stay that high...we've really only played three decent/good defensive teams all season). The average offensive ranking of the nine teams above was 63.6. For the three teams that have finished 150th or better, the average offensive ranking was 26.3.

All of this is to say that our current path under Pera leads nowhere good, unless we're happy finishing somewhere between 175-225 every season. That sucks. All of us are rooting for Pera, all of us are rooting for the players. Nobody wants to have to deal with declining or flatlining football AND basketball programs at the same time. But the reality is that Pera is failing on the court. Would the next guy do better? Nobody knows. Rice is a ridiculously tough gig. But Pera needs to find a magic switch and he needs to find it soon.

I agree that we have not seen a strong defensive team for years at Rice, including the years under Coach Pera, but it is a combination of offense and defense that will make a difference. the overall KenPom rankings have improved each year since Coach Pera took over the program. in 2018, the team was 7 - 24 and ranked 289. 2019 saw an improvement to 13 - 19 with a ranking of 248. 2020 ended up with a 15 - 17 record and a ranking of 199. 2021 improved slightly to 15 - 13 with a ranking of 188 and so far in 2022 Rice is at 7 - 5 and an overall KenPom of 185 (currently). You are right that they have a long way to go but they have been trending in the right direction.

I want the team to play better defense and crash the boards, similar to what we witnessed by North Texas against the Owls on New Years day. I wish that at last one of the assistant coaches would have a proven track record as a defensive specialist. If I was Dr. Karlgaard, I would work create a revenue source to allow Rice to hire such a coach (I am assuming that salary range may be an issue, but have no data to back up this assumption).

I look forward to see how the Owls respond Thursday against Middle Tennessee at home.

Pera has done his best, it just not good enough. He may be able to recruit better now that we're in the AAC, but time is running out on him. I honestly don't see why anyone would want to come to Rice to play basketball, unless they don't have other D1 offers. We never succeed in basketball in any meaningful way, and no one is at games

(01-04-2022 08:51 AM)Kayjay Wrote:  

(01-03-2022 01:03 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  It's absolutely correct that Pera has done well retaining players and building a team that Rice as a university can be proud of. And that shouldn't be ignored. But here's the cold truth. Pera's best KP defensive ranking has been 261 (let's for now set aside our current ranking of 300). In 2018-2019, here were the top three KP teams with a defense ranked 250+: #93 Hofstra (262 D), #109 Utah (257 D), and #140 ULM (271 D). In 2019-2020: #156 Western Carolina (263 D), #166 UNF (324 D), and #172 Austin Peay (275 D). In the shortened 2020-2021 season: #153 VMI (269 D), #159 South Dakota (267 D), and #160 UTSA (252 D). Combined, that means in the last three years there have been three teams with a defense ranked 250+ that have finished 150th or better in KenPom (in 2017-18 the best team was Mercer at #153). That's not good. But our offense is decent, right? We're ranked 86th (we won't stay that high...we've really only played three decent/good defensive teams all season). The average offensive ranking of the nine teams above was 63.6. For the three teams that have finished 150th or better, the average offensive ranking was 26.3.

All of this is to say that our current path under Pera leads nowhere good, unless we're happy finishing somewhere between 175-225 every season. That sucks. All of us are rooting for Pera, all of us are rooting for the players. Nobody wants to have to deal with declining or flatlining football AND basketball programs at the same time. But the reality is that Pera is failing on the court. Would the next guy do better? Nobody knows. Rice is a ridiculously tough gig. But Pera needs to find a magic switch and he needs to find it soon.

I agree that we have not seen a strong defensive team for years at Rice, including the years under Coach Pera, but it is a combination of offense and defense that will make a difference. the overall KenPom rankings have improved each year since Coach Pera took over the program. in 2018, the team was 7 - 24 and ranked 289. 2019 saw an improvement to 13 - 19 with a ranking of 248. 2020 ended up with a 15 - 17 record and a ranking of 199. 2021 improved slightly to 15 - 13 with a ranking of 188 and so far in 2022 Rice is at 7 - 5 and an overall KenPom of 185 (currently). You are right that they have a long way to go but they have been trending in the right direction.

I want the team to play better defense and crash the boards, similar to what we witnessed by North Texas against the Owls on New Years day. I wish that at last one of the assistant coaches would have a proven track record as a defensive specialist. If I was Dr. Karlgaard, I would work create a revenue source to allow Rice to hire such a coach (I am assuming that salary range may be an issue, but have no data to back up this assumption).

I look forward to see how the Owls respond Thursday against Middle Tennessee at home.

I agree that incremental progress is fine, even if it's slow. But my point is that unless a miracle happens on the defensive side, it is statistically likely that we've reached a point where KP improvement will stagnate. Unless luck plays in your favor come conference tournament time, you just don't make postseason noise with a defense ranked 275+.

My opinion on Pera changes on the daily. Would I be upset if he got let go? Not really, though it'd be sad. Would I be upset if he got another year? Not really, though I'd hope it would be contingent on some coaching staff changes. I really like the recruiting class for 2022. But even then, I'm not sure anybody in the class will remedy our shocking inability to break down a defense on the perimeter. And that feels like a microcosm of his tenure. He does a bunch of things well, like find underrecruited players and develop talent. His offensive system isn't even bad, it's just flawed by being too one-dimensional. It just feels like his shortcomings (defense, too heavy emphasis on recruiting wings and shooters, etc.) make putting it all together unlikely. The more and more I watch, the more and more I'm convinced that he'd be better suited as an "offensive coordinator" instead of head coach.

(01-04-2022 02:19 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  He does a bunch of things well, like find underrecruited players and develop talent.

Which is great if your business model is more like Princeton or like we've been for a long time, where you get guys and they stay for 4-5 years.... but the reality is that Basketball has always had one and done's as their 'best', and with transfer rules etc, developing talent isn't necessarily going to help you... though it may help 'the big boys' and certainly the players.

It seems to me that you want a core of that sort of guy... but then you need 2-3 guys per year whom you are either poaching from somewhere else, or you are expecting to get poached because they become stars rather than role players.

I don't know what that guy looks like as basketball isn't my forte, but maybe its a rebounder/defenseman and we 'rent' the great shooters who need to learn defense...

Brent Scott and iirc, Marvin Moore come to mind there. Marvin's presence kept teams from collapsing on Brent... and as Brent got better on offense in the post, he made Marvin more effective.

(01-04-2022 08:51 AM)Kayjay Wrote:  

(01-03-2022 01:03 PM)elw4796 Wrote:  It's absolutely correct that Pera has done well retaining players and building a team that Rice as a university can be proud of. And that shouldn't be ignored. But here's the cold truth. Pera's best KP defensive ranking has been 261 (let's for now set aside our current ranking of 300). In 2018-2019, here were the top three KP teams with a defense ranked 250+: #93 Hofstra (262 D), #109 Utah (257 D), and #140 ULM (271 D). In 2019-2020: #156 Western Carolina (263 D), #166 UNF (324 D), and #172 Austin Peay (275 D). In the shortened 2020-2021 season: #153 VMI (269 D), #159 South Dakota (267 D), and #160 UTSA (252 D). Combined, that means in the last three years there have been three teams with a defense ranked 250+ that have finished 150th or better in KenPom (in 2017-18 the best team was Mercer at #153). That's not good. But our offense is decent, right? We're ranked 86th (we won't stay that high...we've really only played three decent/good defensive teams all season). The average offensive ranking of the nine teams above was 63.6. For the three teams that have finished 150th or better, the average offensive ranking was 26.3.

All of this is to say that our current path under Pera leads nowhere good, unless we're happy finishing somewhere between 175-225 every season. That sucks. All of us are rooting for Pera, all of us are rooting for the players. Nobody wants to have to deal with declining or flatlining football AND basketball programs at the same time. But the reality is that Pera is failing on the court. Would the next guy do better? Nobody knows. Rice is a ridiculously tough gig. But Pera needs to find a magic switch and he needs to find it soon.

I agree that we have not seen a strong defensive team for years at Rice, including the years under Coach Pera, but it is a combination of offense and defense that will make a difference. the overall KenPom rankings have improved each year since Coach Pera took over the program. in 2018, the team was 7 - 24 and ranked 289. 2019 saw an improvement to 13 - 19 with a ranking of 248. 2020 ended up with a 15 - 17 record and a ranking of 199. 2021 improved slightly to 15 - 13 with a ranking of 188 and so far in 2022 Rice is at 7 - 5 and an overall KenPom of 185 (currently). You are right that they have a long way to go but they have been trending in the right direction.

I want the team to play better defense and crash the boards, similar to what we witnessed by North Texas against the Owls on New Years day. I wish that at last one of the assistant coaches would have a proven track record as a defensive specialist. If I was Dr. Karlgaard, I would work create a revenue source to allow Rice to hire such a coach (I am assuming that salary range may be an issue, but have no data to back up this assumption).

I look forward to see how the Owls respond Thursday against Middle Tennessee at home.

I like these posts. Where is Karlgaard? How can we get an assistant coach to shore up the defense?