bearcatmark
Moderator
Posts: 30,727
Joined: Dec 2006
Reputation: 800
I Root For: the Deliverator
Location:
|
Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
I can't stop thinking about Friday, so I did something I don't get to do nearly enough these days... I wrote about the Bearcats!
Because while Bama is deservedly the favorite, there is a Path to Victory for this Bearcat team with its unique combination of experience and NFL talent.
http://bearcatmark.blogspot.com/2021/12/...ctory.html
|
|
12-27-2021 04:10 PM |
|
bcat1997
All American
Posts: 2,772
Joined: Mar 2014
Reputation: 35
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location:
|
RE: Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
Good read. Just posted similar thoughts on the Bama thread. Think the D will give up yardage on the ground to minimize big plays. The O has me most concerned. Our drives this year have been quick scores, not the long drive, eat up the clock type. This will give Bama more opportunities on O.
|
|
12-27-2021 05:05 PM |
|
BearcatDave
All American
Posts: 3,856
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 47
I Root For:
Location:
|
RE: Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
Great article. I didn't realize 3rd down was such an issue, so now i'm going to be nervous during those plays.
Still debating where to watch the game. Somewhat tempted to go to Ann Arbor and watch both games with a friend that's a Michigan alumni, but now with Omicron everywhere it doesn't seem wise. Also tempting to watch in Cincinnati too. Or at the movie theaters...
|
|
12-27-2021 05:15 PM |
|
GoCats1994
Bench Warmer
Posts: 132
Joined: Jan 2016
Reputation: 7
I Root For: Bearcats
Location:
|
RE: Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
I agree - good read. Thank you for taking the time to write and share.
A thought on one of your points ("You see a -13.5 line and immediately may think, wow, Vegas thinks UC is going to get killed")
Odds are set to attract equal action on both sides of the betting line. The oddsmakers are not seeking to predict an actual reality. In short, they are risk management professionals seeking to limit the risk to the sports book.
Said differently - Vegas doesn't think anything. Rather, they are making a prediction about what you think. If they set the line where 50% of the people think one way, and 50% think the other way...they have done their job.
This actually strengthens the point you make in the article. Since the opening line of 13.5, that line hasn't really moved at all. So far, half the people betting on this game do not think it will be a blowout. Not sure what that means...but so far the betting has been even money on both sides of the line.
(This post was last modified: 12-28-2021 08:51 AM by GoCats1994.)
|
|
12-28-2021 08:48 AM |
|
bearcatmark
Moderator
Posts: 30,727
Joined: Dec 2006
Reputation: 800
I Root For: the Deliverator
Location:
|
RE: Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
(12-28-2021 08:48 AM)GoCats1994 Wrote: I agree - good read. Thank you for taking the time to write and share.
A thought on one of your points ("You see a -13.5 line and immediately may think, wow, Vegas thinks UC is going to get killed")
Odds are set to attract equal action on both sides of the betting line. The oddsmakers are not seeking to predict an actual reality. In short, they are risk management professionals seeking to limit the risk to the sports book.
Said differently - Vegas doesn't think anything. Rather, they are making a prediction about what you think. If they set the line where 50% of the people think one way, and 50% think the other way...they have done their job.
This actually strengthens the point you make in the article. Since the opening line of 13.5, that line hasn't really moved at all. So far, half the people betting on this game do not think it will be a blowout. Not sure what that means...but so far the betting has been even money on both sides of the line.
This is partly true as a general principal, particular week to week when there are a lot of games, but right now 75% or 80% of the money is on Alabama and the line hasn't moved. Vegas is holding the line. Maybe they are worried sharps (I would include them when I say "vegas") will come in late and bet Cincinnati if the line moves but that's vegas making a calculation that Cincinnati is good and if they set the line too high they could lose a bunch of money.
Also there's a lot of incentive for Vegas to keep the line close to what they think the actual spread will be. There is too much good information out there, too much data, smart betters/sharp betters will immediately pounce when the line is too far off what data says the likely outcomes are.
(This post was last modified: 12-28-2021 09:05 AM by bearcatmark.)
|
|
12-28-2021 09:01 AM |
|
bww
McCuse
Posts: 5,013
Joined: Mar 2005
Reputation: 153
I Root For: Bearcats
Location: Cincinnati
|
RE: Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
Yep, if they wanted to get to 50% on the bearcats, the line would need to jump to 17 or 18
Nice article BTW!
(This post was last modified: 12-28-2021 09:38 AM by bww.)
|
|
12-28-2021 09:37 AM |
|
UCGrad1992
Legend
Posts: 31,770
Joined: Sep 2013
Reputation: 2265
I Root For: Bearcats U
Location: North Carolina
|
RE: Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
Great analysis Mark. There's a lot to digest there. I've resisted trying to think about the matchups and "X's" and "O's" to this point because I'm continung to soak in all the good vibes from making the CFP. It's simply HISTORIC for our program. To see/hear the continued buzz around our Bearcats brand has been amazing. Outside of Bama and diehard SEC fans, we will clearly be the college sports fans' favorite for this game. Most everyone wants to see us take down the Mighty Bama ship. I'll add my key [simplistic] themes to winning this game:
Don't get too cute. I'm all about doing some things not based on tendencies or seen on film or adding a wrinkle here or there to keep Bama off balance in spots. That said, we have to be who we are and continue to do the things that helped get us to this game. Generally that means balanced on offense moving/scoring the ball and playing great defense in the red zone.
Play to win. I think this is a real advantage that we have over Bama. They are expected to win this game and to win national chips. We are a two touchdown dog and most hope that it doesn't become a blowout. They have thee COACH and the Heisman QB. They are the ferrari and we are the camaro. There is zero pressure on us and all the upside in the world to play competitive ball. This isn't the time to get conservative. Throw a deep ball to Pierce early in the game. Have Rid run it out of pressure for first downs and keep Bama dee on the field. Go for it on 4th down in spots. Don't settle for field goals - especially beyond 20 yards out. That said, you still have to be smart when it counts - like better end of game clock management than the Peach Bowl last year.
Win takeaways. If our defense can force a timely interception or fumble and we don't turn the ball over then that improves our chances to win. Bama is going to pass the ball. They heard all about Georgia's defense and look what they did in the SEC chip game. They're hearing all about Sauce and Coby and our defense so we better be ready. Bama will get some passing yards but we will have opportunities to ball hawk it too. IMO, it comes down to Rid. HE HAS TO TAKE CARE OF THE BALL. PERIOD.
|
|
12-28-2021 10:42 AM |
|
bearcatmark
Moderator
Posts: 30,727
Joined: Dec 2006
Reputation: 800
I Root For: the Deliverator
Location:
|
RE: Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
Always good when I get a nugget from advanced stats that match what my eyes are telling me.
Quote:they do have a projected first-round pick in QB Desmond Ridder, who leads all playoff signal-callers in air yards per attempt (9.97) and adjusted completion percentage (74.4 percent).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our...538twitter
I've been noting for a while that Des's passing numbers are really impressive because UC isn't an offense that gives Des a ton of cheap passing yards (quick dump offs with a lot of YAC). He is making NFL throws and NFL reads. His being ahead of Heisman winner in air yards per attempt and adjusted completion percentage says a ton.
(This post was last modified: 12-28-2021 11:23 AM by bearcatmark.)
|
|
12-28-2021 11:23 AM |
|
robertfoshizzle
Heisman
Posts: 6,981
Joined: Oct 2014
Reputation: 273
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location: Columbus
|
RE: Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
(12-27-2021 05:05 PM)bcat1997 Wrote: Good read. Just posted similar thoughts on the Bama thread. Think the D will give up yardage on the ground to minimize big plays. The O has me most concerned. Our drives this year have been quick scores, not the long drive, eat up the clock type. This will give Bama more opportunities on O.
Yeah, I can definitely see that happening as well. Alabama will pick up 6, 7, 10 yards on the ground seemingly at will early, and it will probably drive us nuts. Luckily they aren't a dominant rushing offense. I do think we'll need to blitz more than we have most of the season if we're going to slow them down. Hoping that Tressel has some nice blitz plays up his sleeve that he's been saving for a moment like this. I don't think we're going to be able to just send Sauce untouched from the edge. Saban is too smart and has too much time to prepare to not have Bryce Young prepared for it, plus they aren't going to be as afraid to throw at Sauce as other teams we've played this year, so they'll be looking in his direction.
|
|
12-28-2021 12:04 PM |
|
Bearcatbdub
Heisman
Posts: 7,521
Joined: May 2006
Reputation: 150
I Root For: The 'Cats! duh!
Location: Union, KY
|
RE: Can't Stop Thinking About Friday
Bama is going to come out and try to impose their will on us. They are going to score the ball. But we can’t get frustrated and roll over, and we can’t make it easy on them. This defense has been pretty resilient all year so I expect more of the same.
On offense, crossing my fingers that we can be more consistent. Seems like we score in bursts and I am not sure Bama will let us do that. We will still need a couple of explosive plays to win, but I think we can get those.
Hopefully thiis does not come down to the field goal unit…
|
|
12-28-2021 12:31 PM |
|