https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...nde-update

Communism's version of FREE MARKET.

China's banking system is something like ten times as over leveraged as ours was in 2008. Admittedly, that does not mean as much in a state-directed economy as it does in a capitalist free market. But it means something, and when those chickens come home to roost it could collapse their whole system.

A little history. China has seldom been united, except when an outside war lord (e.g., Genghis Khan) took over. They are a bunch of people who don't like each other very much. The warlike northern Han don't like the commercial Shanghai and the agricultural Yangtze Valley, and neither of then gets along with the globalist Cantonese south, not to mention Tibet and the Uyghurs out west. So they export cheap consumer goods and use the cash flow to finance make-work projects with little or no economic value (like the empty cities) to keep the peons too busy to revolt. Those projects end up way over-leveraged because they generate no income. And the whole house of cards depends on imported oil, 80% from the MidEast, and until somebody figures out how to build a pipeline over the Himalayas, that means coming by sea, through Hormuz, around India, through Malacca or Sunda, and across the South China Sea. There are a bunch of folks along that route who don't like China, and PLAN is not a blue-water navy capable of protecting that supply line.

This is why getting everyone to recognize Taiwan as part of Mainland China is so important to them... Taiwan _could_ stabilize their house-of-cards economy long enough for them to get it righted out. However, and this is just my personal "however", after following up on the stories about the overleasing and so on, as Owl said, it's going to take ONE canton of China (Uyghurs?) to basically pull the entire deck to its knees.

It's honestly not a matter of if, but when, and that's when China's super-economic power status comes to a huge grinding halt. (which ironically, if happens too fast, is going to hurt everyone, IMO).

(12-20-2021 12:41 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  It's honestly not a matter of if, but when, and that's when China's super-economic power status comes to a huge grinding halt. (which ironically, if happens too fast, is going to hurt everyone, IMO).

Oh, it's going to hurt everybody else when it comes, slow or fast. Think about how dependent we are on China today. Then think of being that dependent on a failed state, like Somalia.

So in other words the Chinese are like the Demoncrapped, they can't govern worth a Schiff either.

(12-20-2021 12:32 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  China's banking system is something like ten times as over leveraged as ours was in 2008. Admittedly, that does not mean as much in a state-directed economy as it does in a capitalist free market. But it means something, and when those chickens come home to roost it could collapse their whole system.

A little history. China has seldom been united, except when an outside war lord (e.g., Genghis Khan) took over. They are a bunch of people who don't like each other very much. The warlike northern Han don't like the commercial Shanghai and the agricultural Yangtze Valley, and neither of then gets along with the globalist Cantonese south, not to mention Tibet and the Uyghurs out west. So they export cheap consumer goods and use the cash flow to finance make-work projects with little or no economic value (like the empty cities) to keep the peons too busy to revolt. Those projects end up way over-leveraged because they generate no income. And the whole house of cards depends on imported oil, 80% from the MidEast, and until somebody figures out how to build a pipeline over the Himalayas, that means coming by sea, through Hormuz, around India, through Malacca or Sunda, and across the South China Sea. There are a bunch of folks along that route who don't like China, and PLAN is not a blue-water navy capable of protecting that supply line.

I'll supply the pumps for pumping the oil over the Himalayas. I think i could retire off that sale.

China Uses ~ 13 Million barrels a Day or (~380,000 Gallon per Minute)
Static Head - Height of the Tallest point - ~29,000 ft (I know you wouldn't pump to that but for arguments sake)
Friction head - 1700' (assumed)
(Pipe Diameter - 21' - Velocity 2.5 ft/s - Pipeline length - 26,400,000 ft)
Pump Efficiency - 80%
Specific Gravity of Oil - .8 (Varies depending on mix)


Break Horsepower Required=

((Static height + Friction Losses (TDH) * Gallons per minute * Specific Gravity)/(3960 * Pump Efficiency )

((29,000+1700)*380,000*.8)/(3960*.8) = 2,945,959.59 Break Horse Power

needless to say it would be freaking expensive and probably use more energy than is in the oil.

(12-20-2021 12:45 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:41 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  It's honestly not a matter of if, but when, and that's when China's super-economic power status comes to a huge grinding halt. (which ironically, if happens too fast, is going to hurt everyone, IMO).

Oh, it's going to hurt everybody else when it comes, slow or fast. Think about how dependent we are on China today. Then think of being that dependent on a failed state, like Somalia.

There is zero doubt that China is about to collapse economically. Not just the USA but a number of others are truly tied to China's economic success. The impact will definitely impact the globe.

So what happens when all the worlds fiat money goes to crap.

(12-20-2021 12:45 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:41 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  It's honestly not a matter of if, but when, and that's when China's super-economic power status comes to a huge grinding halt. (which ironically, if happens too fast, is going to hurt everyone, IMO).

Oh, it's going to hurt everybody else when it comes, slow or fast. Think about how dependent we are on China today. Then think of being that dependent on a failed state, like Somalia.

Sometimes things have to get worse before they get better. A total collapse of Chinese society would be beneficial to all of us in the long run.

(12-20-2021 01:48 PM)DragonLair Wrote:  So what happens when all the worlds fiat money goes to crap.

Hence my build up of physical silver. It was good enough for barter for 1000s of years and I believe still would be.

(12-20-2021 01:48 PM)DragonLair Wrote:  So what happens when all the worlds fiat money goes to crap.

It's all make believe. That's why I don't get all worked up over "national debt". Take a look at this map. Who the hell has the money?

https://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

(12-20-2021 01:45 PM)boss man Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:45 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:41 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  It's honestly not a matter of if, but when, and that's when China's super-economic power status comes to a huge grinding halt. (which ironically, if happens too fast, is going to hurt everyone, IMO).

Oh, it's going to hurt everybody else when it comes, slow or fast. Think about how dependent we are on China today. Then think of being that dependent on a failed state, like Somalia.

There is zero doubt that China is about to collapse economically. Not just the USA but a number of others are truly tied to China's economic success. The impact will definitely impact the globe.

In what way do you think? My opinion is that the Chinese are more dependent on us than we are of them. What do we get from the Chinese that we can't get elsewhere? Do we get oil? No. Do we need their steel? No.
What other commodities do they sell us that we can't manufacture ourselves or pay a little more to get from other countries.

I tell you the Chinese are stupid like the Demoncrapped because they want to destroy our economy which is what's keeping their heads above water now. It's a catch 22 for them, they hate us and yet they want to destroy us and yet don't realize that they are in deep doo-doo without our buying power. LOL, it's like the Demons wanting to defund the police and now it's biting them in the S because they went through and defunded them.

Even though losing their cheap goods and using our more expensive ones will hurt our pockets most of the things we can manufacture ourselves.

JMHO

(12-20-2021 01:45 PM)boss man Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:45 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:41 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  It's honestly not a matter of if, but when, and that's when China's super-economic power status comes to a huge grinding halt. (which ironically, if happens too fast, is going to hurt everyone, IMO).

Oh, it's going to hurt everybody else when it comes, slow or fast. Think about how dependent we are on China today. Then think of being that dependent on a failed state, like Somalia.

There is zero doubt that China is about to collapse economically. Not just the USA but a number of others are truly tied to China's economic success. The impact will definitely impact the globe.

olliebaba Wrote:In what way do you think? My opinion is that the Chinese are more dependent on us than we are of them. What do we get from the Chinese that we can't get elsewhere? Do we get oil? No. Do we need their steel? No.

I'm with ollie on this. There are two things that China is good for....

1) Cheap Products
2) Those Rare Earth Metals.

Anyone remember when we used to get those "cheap products" from just south of our border instead of China? If China goes under economically, I could see Latin America picking up the slack for the 'cheap' products. (Hell, they do that for our cars now)

Steel? There's always been this argument that Chinese Steel is RELIABLY _BAD_. (That's cause they try to make their steel like the rest of their products.. cheap!)

Now the Rare Earth Metals.. that's one we have to work round.... (maybe a push toward affordable quantum computers that wouldn't need them?). There are rare earth metals in Africa (which is why China's making such a huge push to try to get a foothold there) and some in Canada, but this is the hard one to get around.

As for my comment about fast vs. slow collapse, Owl.. I still say if it's a slow collapse we _can_ prepare for it.. (now whether our idiots in Washington D.C. would is another question)... if it's a fast collapse, it's going to hurt.

That's why we absolutely must stick to a two-state china (china/taiwan) policy forever... let china stamp their feet and whine, and do nothing about it, while their economy slowly collapses.

(12-20-2021 02:18 PM)banker Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 01:48 PM)DragonLair Wrote:  So what happens when all the worlds fiat money goes to crap.

Hence my build up of physical silver. It was good enough for barter for 1000s of years and I believe still would be.

I just liquidated almost my entire portfolio and was thinking about putting most of it into 1 gram gold bars. I had also considered silver. What's your reasoning - if you aren't buying gold - for not doing it?

(12-20-2021 12:32 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  China's banking system is something like ten times as over leveraged as ours was in 2008. Admittedly, that does not mean as much in a state-directed economy as it does in a capitalist free market. But it means something, and when those chickens come home to roost it could collapse their whole system.

A little history. China has seldom been united, except when an outside war lord (e.g., Genghis Khan) took over. They are a bunch of people who don't like each other very much. The warlike northern Han don't like the commercial Shanghai and the agricultural Yangtze Valley, and neither of then gets along with the globalist Cantonese south, not to mention Tibet and the Uyghurs out west. So they export cheap consumer goods and use the cash flow to finance make-work projects with little or no economic value (like the empty cities) to keep the peons too busy to revolt. Those projects end up way over-leveraged because they generate no income. And the whole house of cards depends on imported oil, 80% from the MidEast, and until somebody figures out how to build a pipeline over the Himalayas, that means coming by sea, through Hormuz, around India, through Malacca or Sunda, and across the South China Sea. There are a bunch of folks along that route who don't like China, and PLAN is not a blue-water navy capable of protecting that supply line.

Hey the US and China have at least 1 thing in common

(12-20-2021 02:36 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 01:45 PM)boss man Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:45 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:41 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  It's honestly not a matter of if, but when, and that's when China's super-economic power status comes to a huge grinding halt. (which ironically, if happens too fast, is going to hurt everyone, IMO).

Oh, it's going to hurt everybody else when it comes, slow or fast. Think about how dependent we are on China today. Then think of being that dependent on a failed state, like Somalia.

There is zero doubt that China is about to collapse economically. Not just the USA but a number of others are truly tied to China's economic success. The impact will definitely impact the globe.

In what way do you think? My opinion is that the Chinese are more dependent on us than we are of them. What do we get from the Chinese that we can't get elsewhere? Do we get oil? No. Do we need their steel? No.
What other commodities do they sell us that we can't manufacture ourselves or pay a little more to get from other countries.

I tell you the Chinese are stupid like the Demoncrapped because they want to destroy our economy which is what's keeping their heads above water now. It's a catch 22 for them, they hate us and yet they want to destroy us and yet don't realize that they are in deep doo-doo without our buying power. LOL, it's like the Demons wanting to defund the police and now it's biting them in the S because they went through and defunded them.

Even though losing their cheap goods and using our more expensive ones will hurt our pockets most of the things we can manufacture ourselves.

JMHO

There was a guy in office recently who preached about the virtues of reestablishing ourselves as manufacturers. I can't think of his name...

(12-20-2021 01:16 PM)DragonLair Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:32 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  China's banking system is something like ten times as over leveraged as ours was in 2008. Admittedly, that does not mean as much in a state-directed economy as it does in a capitalist free market. But it means something, and when those chickens come home to roost it could collapse their whole system.

A little history. China has seldom been united, except when an outside war lord (e.g., Genghis Khan) took over. They are a bunch of people who don't like each other very much. The warlike northern Han don't like the commercial Shanghai and the agricultural Yangtze Valley, and neither of then gets along with the globalist Cantonese south, not to mention Tibet and the Uyghurs out west. So they export cheap consumer goods and use the cash flow to finance make-work projects with little or no economic value (like the empty cities) to keep the peons too busy to revolt. Those projects end up way over-leveraged because they generate no income. And the whole house of cards depends on imported oil, 80% from the MidEast, and until somebody figures out how to build a pipeline over the Himalayas, that means coming by sea, through Hormuz, around India, through Malacca or Sunda, and across the South China Sea. There are a bunch of folks along that route who don't like China, and PLAN is not a blue-water navy capable of protecting that supply line.

I'll supply the pumps for pumping the oil over the Himalayas. I think i could retire off that sale.

China Uses ~ 13 Million barrels a Day or (~380,000 Gallon per Minute)
Static Head - Height of the Tallest point - ~29,000 ft (I know you wouldn't pump to that but for arguments sake)
Friction head - 1700' (assumed)
(Pipe Diameter - 21' - Velocity 2.5 ft/s - Pipeline length - 26,400,000 ft)
Pump Efficiency - 80%
Specific Gravity of Oil - .8 (Varies depending on mix)


Break Horsepower Required=

((Static height + Friction Losses (TDH) * Gallons per minute * Specific Gravity)/(3960 * Pump Efficiency )

((29,000+1700)*380,000*.8)/(3960*.8) = 2,945,959.59 Break Horse Power

needless to say it would be freaking expensive and probably use more energy than is in the oil.

Enjoy that commission check, and congratulations on your retirement!

My question is: If the time ever came that gold would be the way to buy things how do you pay for them if they're in a gold bar. Will you get change in gold dust. I'm really serious because I have NO idea. I can't ask any of my neighbors or really anyone because it's a rare person that would go that route.

(12-20-2021 05:05 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 02:18 PM)banker Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 01:48 PM)DragonLair Wrote:  So what happens when all the worlds fiat money goes to crap.

Hence my build up of physical silver. It was good enough for barter for 1000s of years and I believe still would be.

I just liquidated almost my entire portfolio and was thinking about putting most of it into 1 gram gold bars. I had also considered silver. What's your reasoning - if you aren't buying gold - for not doing it?

I would strongly advise against gram bar purchases. The premium for such small amounts is hard to overcome. I don’t have anything against gold, but volume helps regulate the premium spread you pay to hold physical positions. That’s one reason why I prefer silver.

Silver is $22.30/Troy ounce today. If you buy 1 ounce rounds it will cost you about $25.30 each. If you buy 100 oz bars it’s a little under $2,500. So that’s an extra 12 oz per 100 by buying more in bulk. The premiums for metals is very high right now since the market has dropped, meaning sellers are sitting on higher priced inventory, but you can also sell silver right now for a buck or two over spot.

I personally prefer silver because the price takes in a larger market. By that I mean the investor universe is much larger due to the lower entry point and a lot of new investors are taking physical positions. The fundamental issue with the silver market is that there are current contracts in place that equal many times all the silver that has been mined. I can go to JP Morgan right now and take a contract for 10,000 ounces of silver. The paper will say I own it and have the right to go physical. The problem is that JP Morgan doesn’t have that silver to give me. As more people decide to hold physical positions you could have a squeeze which leads, IMO, to more upside.

The other issue is the gold to silver ratio is about 85:1 right now (gold price per ounce to silver price to ounce). That’s unusually high by historical levels indicating that gold is either overvalued or silver is undervalued.

Wow, thanks Banker. JP selling silver without the actual silver is kind of odd. Isn't that against the law. It's like someone selling you a house without even having the actual house that you can live in.