(12-15-2021 10:37 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 09:52 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  I look forward to revisiting this subject in two years. One of us will be surprised.

I'll be here, inshallah.
Look forward to seeing how the prognostications hold up. I would like to think that I have a reputation on here for standing up to past statements and admitting misses.

you do. and, you also have a reputation of being pretty much right on the money. thanks for all of the work you do, to put info like this together

These threads are nice because you don't have MWAC participants begging for attention in them.

(01-06-2022 11:25 AM)ultraviolet Wrote:  These threads are nice because you don't have MWAC participants begging for attention in them.

Their viewership numbers don't warrant attention.

(01-06-2022 08:52 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 12:28 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 11:10 AM)Vonz90 Wrote:  How much of Houston/UCF/CU being towards the top is by them getting the national time slots vs the regional time slots? A true comparison would have to weight it by actual TV exposure.

I'm not actually sure what you're saying. It's all ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, nothing "regional." I don't think we even had any of the ABC-ESPN2 reverse mirror deals this year.

As I was saying though, the top performing teams get the top slots -- ABC instead of ESPN, ESPN instead of ESPN2, ESPN2 instead of ESPNU. Cincinnati for the last few years, Memphis before that, UCF before that. None of those leaving are like UT/OU in terms of consistent brand consistently drawing above and beyond others. When those three leave...someone else will be the top two teams in the AAC. And will be in the mix for NY6 or a 5+1+6/6+6 CFP, and will have an advantage in buzz and exposure over Sun Belt or mwc or MAC or CUSA.

Are you saying compare timeslot for timeslot? Dividing up Thursday-Friday-SatNoon-Sat3:30-Sat19:30 (and honestly at least a couple of the Thurs/Fri are FURTHER separable with 2100ET kicks), and then dividing those up by multiple networks...in most cases, you end up talking about eaches. Some true comps, but still a small sample.

I sort of get what he(or she, it's the 90's), was asking. Cincinnati, for instance, as the top team this year is picking up more of the prime ABC/ESPN timeslots. Like you said, we can't necessarily expect viewership to drop 44% when three teams leave because they aren't taking the timeslots with them.

I think the question was how we could potentially forecast what the picture would look like after the 3 departing roll out, and the top three remaining are thrown into those timeslots. No great way to do it, so more of a topic for discussion.

Vonz is "he" and I'll let you all in on something -- a bit of a minor celebrity. I would imagine any Navy grad from the six or seven classes present for Vonz' tenure will recognize the name "Vonz90" as the signature from his artistic contributions to "The Log" magazine.

Anyway, the point remains -- those three are at the top as top performers, and when those three aren't the top performers, they aren't at the top. Cincinnati Houston were #1-#2 for '21...and its the first time the top two have been two of the three departing teams...just like '21 was the first CCG to match up two of the three departing teams (and we've already had one matching up two stayers.) Memphis has been up there, USF, etc etc.
I may not be able to say WHO will be the top two or three teams in performance and therefore best timeslots and therefore best viewership -- but it actually doesn't matter. Any of the eight legacy teams can pick up the mantle in conference, get a scalp or two out of conference, and get the buzz and NY6 or expanded playoff consideration. A couple of the incoming teams could position themselves over the next year or two that they'll get the same.

(01-06-2022 08:28 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(12-15-2021 10:44 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  One more post here to add to historical threads.

This is a thing I've tracked for several years, the number of games by non-contract-bowl-conference with 3, 2, and 1 million viewers. Kind of got trumped by the very good article this year on the "4 Million Club." But this is what I have compiled since around 2017:

Since you have been tracking these trends over years, you're one of the few who knows whether the gap between the AAC and the P5 conferences has been getting smaller over time,

and if it has been getting smaller - - how much smaller?

In other words, was the AAC's viewership only 20% of a measure of the average P5 conference's viewership X years ago, and it now more like 30% of that measure?

.

Only asking this if it doesn't require more than a few minutes of your time.

.

Another, similar question pertains not to the AAC but to all non-P5 teams.

Has viewership only improved for the AAC, or has it also improved for the non-P5 schools as a whole, with some improvement for viewership of the other conferences in addition to the increase in AAC viewership?

.

Just ballpark estimates would be very interesting - something you could do on a scrap piece of paper in a few minutes would be great. thanks.

Bottom line up front: I would say the AAC's viewership numbers have been pretty consistent relative to the autonomy conferences over the last handful of years -- 30-40% of the bottom of the autonomy conferences and 15% of the top two. And all the primary media rights contracts are similarly proportionate.

2021 AAC viewership of conference controlled inventory was
28.7% of Big12
39.9% of Pac12
38.0% of ACC
16.5% of SEC
12.6% of Big10

2018 AAC viewership of conference controlled inventory was
28.4% of Big12
43.5% of Pac12
37.9% of ACC
16.7% of SEC
19% of Big10

There are ups and downs (e.g. ACC was huge in 2020 with ND games added including two monsters) but those are all pretty consistent with averages over that time.
2018 is as far back as I have all 10 conferences compiled. I thought I had 2017 or 2016 as well - maybe in old posts then the back of the envelope never saved as spreadsheet. I have AAC in detail back to 2015 (and the counts of 3-million, 2-million, 1-million games for AAC and G4s), though and it's pretty consistent:
2021 25,952,000
2020 21,294,000
2019 28,612,000
2018 28,648,000
2017 21,894,000
2016 27,284,000
2015 32,505,000
The variability is all explainable -- 2020 COVID year, 2015 Temple had great numbers for hosting Notre Dame AND Penn State and those two games account for the number above the mean, etc.

Same applies looking downward.
2021 mwc was 27.6% of the AAC and 2018 was 20%
2021 SBC was 22.5% of the AAC and 2018 was 3.5%
2021 MAC was 14% of the AAC and 2018 was 10.5%

2021 Sun Belt jump - they now have 15 games on ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU instead of, like 3 in the past. I would say we're still comfortably ahead with our 40 games on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU and we won't slip much with realignment.
Omitted CUSA because their deals have been so bad.

slhNavy91, thanks for correcting my over site of Navy. I did not intend to deceive. I don't believe its needed.

UC, UCF, and UH will get higher viewer numbers in the Big-12. How much remains to be seen.

UH in particular will be renewing old rivalries from SWC days. UH will help viewership of Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, and OSU and they will help UH's viewership. OSU was not in the SWC but UH has played them occasionally in various sports including football and basketball. The same applies to attendance. Not only are they old rivalries three of them are within driving distance. Many UH fans will definitely travel to Baylor, OSU, and TCU. Many of their fans will travel to Houston. Many UH fans traveled to Austin when in the SWC. Several attendance records were set in Austin when UH played UT. UH will have strong football and basketball competitions with those four. Those four and UH all played in the NCAAT this year. UH and BYU may build rivalries. Their fans attend football games in Houston in large numbers. Many UH fans like to attend games in Utah. It's a great short vacation.

(04-28-2022 10:55 PM)HoustonRocks Wrote:  slhNavy91, thanks for correcting my over site of Navy. I did not intend to deceive. I don't believe its needed.

UC, UCF, and UH will get higher viewer numbers in the Big-12. How much remains to be seen.

UH in particular will be renewing old rivalries from SWC days. UH will help viewership of Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, and OSU and they will help UH's viewership. OSU was not in the SWC but UH has played them occasionally in various sports including football and basketball. The same applies to attendance. Not only are they old rivalries three of them are within driving distance. Many UH fans will definitely travel to Baylor, OSU, and TCU. Many of their fans will travel to Houston. Many UH fans traveled to Austin when in the SWC. Several attendance records were set in Austin when UH played UT. UH will have strong football and basketball competitions with those four. Those four and UH all played in the NCAAT this year. UH and BYU may build rivalries. Their fans attend football games in Houston in large numbers. Many UH fans like to attend games in Utah. It's a great short vacation.

Minor point of order:
OSU actually WAS in the SWC (as a founding member, no less) from 1914-1924. Obviously no overlap with UH in the SWC 1971-1995.

More importantly, I agree Cougars/Cowboys should develop in to a good rivalry.

(12-15-2021 09:52 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  I look forward to revisiting this subject in two years. One of us will be surprised.

Two years later....

2023 AAC viewership is 97% of AAC 2022 viewership.

In 2023 Sun Belt increased their tv exposure by 50% (total slots, ESPN slots, ESPN2 slots, and Saturday slots all increased by 50% or more) and viewrs only increased by 43%

How many more years you want us to wait now?