(12-13-2021 11:42 AM)Volkmar Wrote:  

(12-13-2021 09:52 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I think it's still too early to be using RPI as a major gauge of rankings. For Rice, they have played three top-70 teams in RPI (Oakland 21, Houston 54 and Texas State 69, with Texas 61 next week). I think the NET rankings are a much better gauge of the true rankings - in that one, Houston is 4, Texas 23, Oakland 58 and Texas State 78).

I can't figure out why some of the RPI rankings are so high for a team like Morehead State (4-4 with wins over Arkansas State, UMKC, Georgia Southern and Presbyterian, and losses to Auburn, UAB, Mississippi State and East Tennessee State (by an average margin of 16 points). Their RPI is 47, ahead of teams like West Virginia (48), Oklahoma (49), Houston (54) and Arkansas (56). Jackson State is another one - they're 2-7 and have an RPI of 79. Yes, they've played a lot of good teams but their RPI is 100 points ahead of a Marshall team that they lost by 14 points to at their place.

I don't know if it exists, but a NC ranking of teams based on NET rankings would be a superior gauge to look at right now than the RPI ratings. JMHO.

I actually trust the Pomeroy more right now. The NET has 3-2 Wagner at #49, ahead of 7-2 Kentucky. Pomeroy has Wagner at #136 and Kentucky at #21. NET has Chattanooga at #30, while Pomeroy has them at #104. NET also has Monmouth at #47 ahead of Kentucky, while Pomeroy has them at #129.

https://kenpom.com

That's crazy. How can there be so much variance between the RPI, NET and Pomeroy? But there is. Just shows that things haven't completely flushed themselves out totally.

But I also agree, the Pomeroy seems to be the most logical right now.

NET and Kenpom have us about the same.

(12-13-2021 12:35 PM)JCMiner Wrote:  NET and Kenpom have us about the same.

Our numbers across the board are pretty consistent as well. The NET has us a little higher than our average, but our range right now is from the low 20's to the low 70's, with most falling in the 30-45 range.

Teams like Charlotte will struggle with NET ratings versus RPI. The reason is that they play a defensive style with fewer possessions. The NET ranking calculates win margin into the formula so a high scoring team like UAB has a better chance of a better NET. A 12 point win by Charlotte is typically a dominant performance. Charlotte does have issues to clean up prior to conference play. Us fans are perplexed why/how Charlotte lets other teams back into a game when we are clearly ahead. This is also a team style that can't play catchup when behind. The horses to score are there, but the slow game pace makes it tough. Charlotte has been outscored in the last 10 minutes in every game they have played this season. If they can figure that out they will be much tougher to beat.

Charlotte
Wins/Loss: Point Margin :Opponent NET Rating: Game summary
W: 2: 47: Home win - Never trailed and led by double digits most game.
W: 12: 298: Home win - Never trailed and led by 15 or so most game.
W: 1: 183: Road win - Led majority of this game and was up by 17 at one point.
W: 7: 275: Home Win - Never trailed after 7 minutes remaining in 1st half. Up by 15 early in the 2nd half
W: 1: 241: Road win - Held the lead the majority of the game. Up double digits early in the 2nd half

L: 12: 105: Neutral Tournament - Back and forth game for part of it. 1 point game with under 5 minutes to play.
L: 12: 184: Neutral Tournament - Worst played game all season. Back and forth for 30 minutes. Charlotte was outscored 22 - 10 over final 10 minutes.
L: 17: 46: Home Loss - Outcoached and outplayed. It was all downhill after a 3-3 tie.
L: 20: 67: Road Loss - More competitive than the score indicates. Charlotte only scored 2 points over the final 5 minutes and change.

The NET does not calculate scoring margin anymore:

"With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET."

As we've all seen, the biggest factor at the end of the year is your wins vs the top quadrants.

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Playing a slower pace should not effect your NET ranking if you are still efficient. Although scoring margin technically isn't factored into this, if you average 1 point per possession on average, but give up 0.99 on average that will have an impact on your ranking.