(12-04-2021 11:27 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote: (12-04-2021 11:23 PM)Dawgxas Wrote: The real winner in all of this is undoubtedly the MWC. There will be no question who the new P6 conference will be going forward
The MWC could go to the next 5 NY6 bowls and they still wouldn't equal the number of NY6 checks the AAC has cashed.
The MWC's Thompson was interviewed while Utah State was whipping San Diego and looked lost.
IMO, the AAC will continue to do what they have been doing. Their budget strategy has won the day.
That's the way it looks now, but 6 of the 8 AAC schools are no better off than the SBC schools, and there could be a lot of changes left in store for the AAC "remainers":
1. Memphis and either SMU or USF are expected to join the Big 12, and they may do so as early as 2025 or 2026. SMU currently seems the likeliest to join Memphis in the Big 12.
2. The news of their impending departure could be announced as early as 2022, or soon after UT and OU announce whether they will begin playing in the SEC in 2023, '24, or '25.
3. Soon after the news is announced, ESPN may announce that they are renegotiating the terms of their contract with the AAC downward, due to the expected loss of viewership when Memphis (and SMU/USF) depart.
4. As a result, the AAC schools could take a significant cut in revenue.
5. Alternatively, ESPN could push the AAC to replace Memphis and any other teams that depart. The "AAC remainers" would prefer to add Air Force and Colorado State. It has been speculated that they added three Texas schools to make it easier for those two MWC schools to join the AAC after Memphis departs.
However, there may be no more than a 50/50 chance that they will join the AAC.
6. There will be major changes in 2031-32:
- It seems very unlikely that the AAC's two-tiered revenue system will be extended beyond 2032.
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- Without Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, or SMU, the only current premier-level programs remaining in the AAC would be Navy and Wichita State.
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- The best the AAC can probably hope for would be for schools such as Temple, UAB, or North Texas to develop NCAA tournament-quality MBB programs powers and for 1 or 2, such as UTSA to emerge as the next Boise or Appalachian State.
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- When the time comes for them to negotiate a new broadcasting agreement with ESPN (their current deal expires after the 2031-32 season), the AAC might drop down in stature to the point of being a middle-of-the-pack G5 conference.
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The AAC remainers' current "gravy train" may only continue until its broadcasting agreement expires or is renegotiated downward.
Overall, the long-term prognosis for the AAC may not be any brighter than the prognosis for any of the other G5 conferences.
Ranking the G5 conferences (after the membership changes* go into effect):
*Expected membership changes include departure of Memphis & SMU from AAC.
Football:
#1 MWC (tie) - top programs: SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Air Force
#1 SBC (tie) - top programs: App St., Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
#3 CUSA - top programs: Liberty, WKU, SHSU
#4 AAC (tie) - top program: UTSA, Navy, Tulsa
#4 MAC (tie) - top programs: NIU, Toledo, WMU
Basketball:
#1 MWC - top programs: SDSU, Utah St., Colorado St., Boise St.
#2 CUSA - top programs: LTU, LU, NMSU, WKU
#3 AAC - top programs: Wichita St., UAB, Temple/N. Texas
#4 MAC - top programs: Buffalo, Toledo, Akron
#5 SBC - top programs: Georgia St., Texas St.
Looking ahead, the MWC seems to be in a far better position than the AAC is in. The only thing that the AAC has going for it now is that it has the best broadcasting arrangements, but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade.
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