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What is Your Take on the Great C-USA Debate?
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Milwaukee Offline
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Post: #81
RE: What is Your Take on the Great C-USA Debate?
(12-04-2021 11:27 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:23 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The real winner in all of this is undoubtedly the MWC. There will be no question who the new P6 conference will be going forward


The MWC could go to the next 5 NY6 bowls and they still wouldn't equal the number of NY6 checks the AAC has cashed.

The MWC's Thompson was interviewed while Utah State was whipping San Diego and looked lost.

IMO, the AAC will continue to do what they have been doing. Their budget strategy has won the day.

That's the way it looks now, but 6 of the 8 AAC schools are no better off than the SBC schools, and there could be a lot of changes left in store for the AAC "remainers":

1. Memphis and either SMU or USF are expected to join the Big 12, and they may do so as early as 2025 or 2026. SMU currently seems the likeliest to join Memphis in the Big 12.

2. The news of their impending departure could be announced as early as 2022, or soon after UT and OU announce whether they will begin playing in the SEC in 2023, '24, or '25.

3. Soon after the news is announced, ESPN may announce that they are renegotiating the terms of their contract with the AAC downward, due to the expected loss of viewership when Memphis (and SMU/USF) depart.

4. As a result, the AAC schools could take a significant cut in revenue.

5. Alternatively, ESPN could push the AAC to replace Memphis and any other teams that depart. The "AAC remainers" would prefer to add Air Force and Colorado State. It has been speculated that they added three Texas schools to make it easier for those two MWC schools to join the AAC after Memphis departs.
However, there may be no more than a 50/50 chance that they will join the AAC.

6. There will be major changes in 2031-32:
  • It seems very unlikely that the AAC's two-tiered revenue system will be extended beyond 2032.
    .
  • Without Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, or SMU, the only current premier-level programs remaining in the AAC would be Navy and Wichita State.
    .
  • The best the AAC can probably hope for would be for schools such as Temple, UAB, or North Texas to develop NCAA tournament-quality MBB programs powers and for 1 or 2, such as UTSA to emerge as the next Boise or Appalachian State.
    .
  • When the time comes for them to negotiate a new broadcasting agreement with ESPN (their current deal expires after the 2031-32 season), the AAC might drop down in stature to the point of being a middle-of-the-pack G5 conference.
    .

.

The AAC remainers' current "gravy train" may only continue until its broadcasting agreement expires or is renegotiated downward.

Overall, the long-term prognosis for the AAC may not be any brighter than the prognosis for any of the other G5 conferences.

Ranking the G5 conferences (after the membership changes* go into effect):

*Expected membership changes include departure of Memphis & SMU from AAC.

Football:

#1 MWC (tie) - top programs: SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Air Force
#1 SBC (tie) - top programs: App St., Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
#3 CUSA - top programs: Liberty, WKU, SHSU
#4 AAC (tie) - top program: UTSA, Navy, Tulsa
#4 MAC (tie) - top programs: NIU, Toledo, WMU

Basketball:

#1 MWC - top programs: SDSU, Utah St., Colorado St., Boise St.
#2 CUSA - top programs: LTU, LU, NMSU, WKU
#3 AAC - top programs: Wichita St., UAB, Temple/N. Texas
#4 MAC - top programs: Buffalo, Toledo, Akron
#5 SBC - top programs: Georgia St., Texas St.

Looking ahead, the MWC seems to be in a far better position than the AAC is in. The only thing that the AAC has going for it now is that it has the best broadcasting arrangements, but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade.

.
12-11-2021 12:28 AM
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Side.Show.Joe Offline
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Post: #82
RE: What is Your Take on the Great C-USA Debate?
(12-11-2021 12:28 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:27 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:23 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The real winner in all of this is undoubtedly the MWC. There will be no question who the new P6 conference will be going forward


The MWC could go to the next 5 NY6 bowls and they still wouldn't equal the number of NY6 checks the AAC has cashed.

The MWC's Thompson was interviewed while Utah State was whipping San Diego and looked lost.

IMO, the AAC will continue to do what they have been doing. Their budget strategy has won the day.

That's the way it looks now, but 6 of the 8 AAC schools are no better off than the SBC schools, and there could be a lot of changes left in store for the AAC "remainers":

1. Memphis and either SMU or USF are expected to join the Big 12, and they may do so as early as 2025 or 2026. SMU currently seems the likeliest to join Memphis in the Big 12.

2. The news of their impending departure could be announced as early as 2022, or soon after UT and OU announce whether they will begin playing in the SEC in 2023, '24, or '25.

3. Soon after the news is announced, ESPN may announce that they are renegotiating the terms of their contract with the AAC downward, due to the expected loss of viewership when Memphis (and SMU/USF) depart.

4. As a result, the AAC schools could take a significant cut in revenue.

5. Alternatively, ESPN could push the AAC to replace Memphis and any other teams that depart. The "AAC remainers" would prefer to add Air Force and Colorado State. It has been speculated that they added three Texas schools to make it easier for those two MWC schools to join the AAC after Memphis departs.
However, there may be no more than a 50/50 chance that they will join the AAC.

6. There will be major changes in 2031-32:
  • It seems very unlikely that the AAC's two-tiered revenue system will be extended beyond 2032.
    .
  • Without Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, or SMU, the only current premier-level programs remaining in the AAC would be Navy and Wichita State.
    .
  • The best the AAC can probably hope for would be for schools such as Temple, UAB, or North Texas to develop NCAA tournament-quality MBB programs powers and for 1 or 2, such as UTSA to emerge as the next Boise or Appalachian State.
    .
  • When the time comes for them to negotiate a new broadcasting agreement with ESPN (their current deal expires after the 2031-32 season), the AAC might drop down in stature to the point of being a middle-of-the-pack G5 conference.
    .

.

The AAC remainers' current "gravy train" may only continue until its broadcasting agreement expires or is renegotiated downward.

Overall, the long-term prognosis for the AAC may not be any brighter than the prognosis for any of the other G5 conferences.

Ranking the G5 conferences (after the membership changes* go into effect):

*Expected membership changes include departure of Memphis & SMU from AAC.

Football:

#1 MWC (tie) - top programs: SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Air Force
#1 SBC (tie) - top programs: App St., Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
#3 CUSA - top programs: Liberty, WKU, SHSU
#4 AAC (tie) - top program: UTSA, Navy, Tulsa
#4 MAC (tie) - top programs: NIU, Toledo, WMU

Basketball:

#1 MWC - top programs: SDSU, Utah St., Colorado St., Boise St.
#2 CUSA - top programs: LTU, LU, NMSU, WKU
#3 AAC - top programs: Wichita St., UAB, Temple/N. Texas
#4 MAC - top programs: Buffalo, Toledo, Akron
#5 SBC - top programs: Georgia St., Texas St.

Looking ahead, the MWC seems to be in a far better position than the AAC is in. The only thing that the AAC has going for it now is that it has the best broadcasting arrangements, but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade.

.

That's just dumb. How about you build a case based on the actual membership each conference will have, instead of using some obscure conspiracy based on further movement?

In football the top spot is most likely to be a toss up between the American and the MWC. After those two the Sun Belt will hold down the 3rd spot. Right now it looks like the MAC will be 4th. And the C-USA 4.0 will be last until the new membership can prove they can complete at the FBS level.
12-11-2021 02:55 PM
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Dawgxas Offline
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Post: #83
RE: What is Your Take on the Great C-USA Debate?
(12-11-2021 12:28 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:27 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:23 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The real winner in all of this is undoubtedly the MWC. There will be no question who the new P6 conference will be going forward


The MWC could go to the next 5 NY6 bowls and they still wouldn't equal the number of NY6 checks the AAC has cashed.

The MWC's Thompson was interviewed while Utah State was whipping San Diego and looked lost.

IMO, the AAC will continue to do what they have been doing. Their budget strategy has won the day.

That's the way it looks now, but 6 of the 8 AAC schools are no better off than the SBC schools, and there could be a lot of changes left in store for the AAC "remainers":

1. Memphis and either SMU or USF are expected to join the Big 12, and they may do so as early as 2025 or 2026. SMU currently seems the likeliest to join Memphis in the Big 12.

2. The news of their impending departure could be announced as early as 2022, or soon after UT and OU announce whether they will begin playing in the SEC in 2023, '24, or '25.

3. Soon after the news is announced, ESPN may announce that they are renegotiating the terms of their contract with the AAC downward, due to the expected loss of viewership when Memphis (and SMU/USF) depart.

4. As a result, the AAC schools could take a significant cut in revenue.

5. Alternatively, ESPN could push the AAC to replace Memphis and any other teams that depart. The "AAC remainers" would prefer to add Air Force and Colorado State. It has been speculated that they added three Texas schools to make it easier for those two MWC schools to join the AAC after Memphis departs.
However, there may be no more than a 50/50 chance that they will join the AAC.

6. There will be major changes in 2031-32:
  • It seems very unlikely that the AAC's two-tiered revenue system will be extended beyond 2032.
    .
  • Without Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, or SMU, the only current premier-level programs remaining in the AAC would be Navy and Wichita State.
    .
  • The best the AAC can probably hope for would be for schools such as Temple, UAB, or North Texas to develop NCAA tournament-quality MBB programs powers and for 1 or 2, such as UTSA to emerge as the next Boise or Appalachian State.
    .
  • When the time comes for them to negotiate a new broadcasting agreement with ESPN (their current deal expires after the 2031-32 season), the AAC might drop down in stature to the point of being a middle-of-the-pack G5 conference.
    .

.

The AAC remainers' current "gravy train" may only continue until its broadcasting agreement expires or is renegotiated downward.

Overall, the long-term prognosis for the AAC may not be any brighter than the prognosis for any of the other G5 conferences.

Ranking the G5 conferences (after the membership changes* go into effect):

*Expected membership changes include departure of Memphis & SMU from AAC.

Football:

#1 MWC (tie) - top programs: SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Air Force
#1 SBC (tie) - top programs: App St., Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
#3 CUSA - top programs: Liberty, WKU, SHSU
#4 AAC (tie) - top program: UTSA, Navy, Tulsa
#4 MAC (tie) - top programs: NIU, Toledo, WMU

Basketball:

#1 MWC - top programs: SDSU, Utah St., Colorado St., Boise St.
#2 CUSA - top programs: LTU, LU, NMSU, WKU
#3 AAC - top programs: Wichita St., UAB, Temple/N. Texas
#4 MAC - top programs: Buffalo, Toledo, Akron
#5 SBC - top programs: Georgia St., Texas St.

Looking ahead, the MWC seems to be in a far better position than the AAC is in. The only thing that the AAC has going for it now is that it has the best broadcasting arrangements, but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade.

.

Really good post. Well thought out and intelligent points.
12-11-2021 03:06 PM
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Dawgxas Offline
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Post: #84
RE: What is Your Take on the Great C-USA Debate?
(12-11-2021 02:55 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 12:28 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:27 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:23 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The real winner in all of this is undoubtedly the MWC. There will be no question who the new P6 conference will be going forward


The MWC could go to the next 5 NY6 bowls and they still wouldn't equal the number of NY6 checks the AAC has cashed.

The MWC's Thompson was interviewed while Utah State was whipping San Diego and looked lost.

IMO, the AAC will continue to do what they have been doing. Their budget strategy has won the day.

That's the way it looks now, but 6 of the 8 AAC schools are no better off than the SBC schools, and there could be a lot of changes left in store for the AAC "remainers":

1. Memphis and either SMU or USF are expected to join the Big 12, and they may do so as early as 2025 or 2026. SMU currently seems the likeliest to join Memphis in the Big 12.

2. The news of their impending departure could be announced as early as 2022, or soon after UT and OU announce whether they will begin playing in the SEC in 2023, '24, or '25.

3. Soon after the news is announced, ESPN may announce that they are renegotiating the terms of their contract with the AAC downward, due to the expected loss of viewership when Memphis (and SMU/USF) depart.

4. As a result, the AAC schools could take a significant cut in revenue.

5. Alternatively, ESPN could push the AAC to replace Memphis and any other teams that depart. The "AAC remainers" would prefer to add Air Force and Colorado State. It has been speculated that they added three Texas schools to make it easier for those two MWC schools to join the AAC after Memphis departs.
However, there may be no more than a 50/50 chance that they will join the AAC.

6. There will be major changes in 2031-32:
  • It seems very unlikely that the AAC's two-tiered revenue system will be extended beyond 2032.
    .
  • Without Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, or SMU, the only current premier-level programs remaining in the AAC would be Navy and Wichita State.
    .
  • The best the AAC can probably hope for would be for schools such as Temple, UAB, or North Texas to develop NCAA tournament-quality MBB programs powers and for 1 or 2, such as UTSA to emerge as the next Boise or Appalachian State.
    .
  • When the time comes for them to negotiate a new broadcasting agreement with ESPN (their current deal expires after the 2031-32 season), the AAC might drop down in stature to the point of being a middle-of-the-pack G5 conference.
    .

.

The AAC remainers' current "gravy train" may only continue until its broadcasting agreement expires or is renegotiated downward.

Overall, the long-term prognosis for the AAC may not be any brighter than the prognosis for any of the other G5 conferences.

Ranking the G5 conferences (after the membership changes* go into effect):

*Expected membership changes include departure of Memphis & SMU from AAC.

Football:

#1 MWC (tie) - top programs: SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Air Force
#1 SBC (tie) - top programs: App St., Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
#3 CUSA - top programs: Liberty, WKU, SHSU
#4 AAC (tie) - top program: UTSA, Navy, Tulsa
#4 MAC (tie) - top programs: NIU, Toledo, WMU

Basketball:

#1 MWC - top programs: SDSU, Utah St., Colorado St., Boise St.
#2 CUSA - top programs: LTU, LU, NMSU, WKU
#3 AAC - top programs: Wichita St., UAB, Temple/N. Texas
#4 MAC - top programs: Buffalo, Toledo, Akron
#5 SBC - top programs: Georgia St., Texas St.

Looking ahead, the MWC seems to be in a far better position than the AAC is in. The only thing that the AAC has going for it now is that it has the best broadcasting arrangements, but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade.

.

That's just dumb. How about you build a case based on the actual membership each conference will have, instead of using some obscure conspiracy based on further movement?

In football the top spot is most likely to be a toss up between the American and the MWC. After those two the Sun Belt will hold down the 3rd spot. Right now it looks like the MAC will be 4th. And the C-USA 4.0 will be last until the new membership can prove they can complete at the FBS level.

What are you talking about?

The MWC is already ahead of the AAC in the Massey Composite even with UCF, Houston and Cincinnati included.


https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

With the Big 12 3 removed the AAC is way behind the MWC in every ranking. Massey, Sagarin, Billingsly

The new AAC falls to a solid 3rd G5 in football. 2nd in basketball with SMU and Memphis gone the AAC falls to 4th in basketball.

Milwaukee was correct on his well thought out assessment.

Show some valid data to support your opinion instead of spouting off that’s “dumb”
12-11-2021 03:25 PM
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Side.Show.Joe Offline
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Post: #85
RE: What is Your Take on the Great C-USA Debate?
(12-11-2021 03:25 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 02:55 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 12:28 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:27 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:23 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The real winner in all of this is undoubtedly the MWC. There will be no question who the new P6 conference will be going forward


The MWC could go to the next 5 NY6 bowls and they still wouldn't equal the number of NY6 checks the AAC has cashed.

The MWC's Thompson was interviewed while Utah State was whipping San Diego and looked lost.

IMO, the AAC will continue to do what they have been doing. Their budget strategy has won the day.

That's the way it looks now, but 6 of the 8 AAC schools are no better off than the SBC schools, and there could be a lot of changes left in store for the AAC "remainers":

1. Memphis and either SMU or USF are expected to join the Big 12, and they may do so as early as 2025 or 2026. SMU currently seems the likeliest to join Memphis in the Big 12.

2. The news of their impending departure could be announced as early as 2022, or soon after UT and OU announce whether they will begin playing in the SEC in 2023, '24, or '25.

3. Soon after the news is announced, ESPN may announce that they are renegotiating the terms of their contract with the AAC downward, due to the expected loss of viewership when Memphis (and SMU/USF) depart.

4. As a result, the AAC schools could take a significant cut in revenue.

5. Alternatively, ESPN could push the AAC to replace Memphis and any other teams that depart. The "AAC remainers" would prefer to add Air Force and Colorado State. It has been speculated that they added three Texas schools to make it easier for those two MWC schools to join the AAC after Memphis departs.
However, there may be no more than a 50/50 chance that they will join the AAC.

6. There will be major changes in 2031-32:
  • It seems very unlikely that the AAC's two-tiered revenue system will be extended beyond 2032.
    .
  • Without Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, or SMU, the only current premier-level programs remaining in the AAC would be Navy and Wichita State.
    .
  • The best the AAC can probably hope for would be for schools such as Temple, UAB, or North Texas to develop NCAA tournament-quality MBB programs powers and for 1 or 2, such as UTSA to emerge as the next Boise or Appalachian State.
    .
  • When the time comes for them to negotiate a new broadcasting agreement with ESPN (their current deal expires after the 2031-32 season), the AAC might drop down in stature to the point of being a middle-of-the-pack G5 conference.
    .

.

The AAC remainers' current "gravy train" may only continue until its broadcasting agreement expires or is renegotiated downward.

Overall, the long-term prognosis for the AAC may not be any brighter than the prognosis for any of the other G5 conferences.

Ranking the G5 conferences (after the membership changes* go into effect):

*Expected membership changes include departure of Memphis & SMU from AAC.

Football:

#1 MWC (tie) - top programs: SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Air Force
#1 SBC (tie) - top programs: App St., Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
#3 CUSA - top programs: Liberty, WKU, SHSU
#4 AAC (tie) - top program: UTSA, Navy, Tulsa
#4 MAC (tie) - top programs: NIU, Toledo, WMU

Basketball:

#1 MWC - top programs: SDSU, Utah St., Colorado St., Boise St.
#2 CUSA - top programs: LTU, LU, NMSU, WKU
#3 AAC - top programs: Wichita St., UAB, Temple/N. Texas
#4 MAC - top programs: Buffalo, Toledo, Akron
#5 SBC - top programs: Georgia St., Texas St.

Looking ahead, the MWC seems to be in a far better position than the AAC is in. The only thing that the AAC has going for it now is that it has the best broadcasting arrangements, but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade.

.

That's just dumb. How about you build a case based on the actual membership each conference will have, instead of using some obscure conspiracy based on further movement?

In football the top spot is most likely to be a toss up between the American and the MWC. After those two the Sun Belt will hold down the 3rd spot. Right now it looks like the MAC will be 4th. And the C-USA 4.0 will be last until the new membership can prove they can complete at the FBS level.

What are you talking about?

The MWC is already ahead of the AAC in the Massey Composite even with UCF, Houston and Cincinnati included.


https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

With the Big 12 3 removed the AAC is way behind the MWC in every ranking. Massey, Sagarin, Billingsly

The new AAC falls to a solid 3rd G5 in football. 2nd in basketball with SMU and Memphis gone the AAC falls to 4th in basketball.

Milwaukee was correct on his well thought out assessment.

Show some valid data to support your opinion instead of spouting off that’s “dumb”

Records and rankings (Coaches/AP) of programs that will be in each conference in 2023....

AAC
#25/#24 UTSA 11-1
SMU 8-4
UAB 8-4
ECU 7-5
Memphis 6-6
Tulsa 6-6
UNT 6-6
FAU 5-7
Charlotte 5-7
Rice 4-8
Navy 3-8
Temple 3-8
Tulane 2-10
USF 2-10

vs.

MWC
San Diego St 11-2
Utah St 10-3
Air Force 9-3
Fresno St 9-3
Nevada 8-4
Boise St 7-5
Wyoming 6-6
Hawaii 6-7
San Jose St 5-7
Colorado St 3-9
New Mexico 3-9
UNLV 2-10

Right now, I just don't see much difference in these two conferences. Again, he based much of his opinion on his hopes of some members of the American leaving... That makes it dumb.
(This post was last modified: 12-11-2021 04:23 PM by Side.Show.Joe.)
12-11-2021 04:21 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #86
What is Your Take on the Great C-USA Debate?
(12-11-2021 03:25 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 02:55 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 12:28 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:27 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:23 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  The real winner in all of this is undoubtedly the MWC. There will be no question who the new P6 conference will be going forward


The MWC could go to the next 5 NY6 bowls and they still wouldn't equal the number of NY6 checks the AAC has cashed.

The MWC's Thompson was interviewed while Utah State was whipping San Diego and looked lost.

IMO, the AAC will continue to do what they have been doing. Their budget strategy has won the day.

That's the way it looks now, but 6 of the 8 AAC schools are no better off than the SBC schools, and there could be a lot of changes left in store for the AAC "remainers":

1. Memphis and either SMU or USF are expected to join the Big 12, and they may do so as early as 2025 or 2026. SMU currently seems the likeliest to join Memphis in the Big 12.

2. The news of their impending departure could be announced as early as 2022, or soon after UT and OU announce whether they will begin playing in the SEC in 2023, '24, or '25.

3. Soon after the news is announced, ESPN may announce that they are renegotiating the terms of their contract with the AAC downward, due to the expected loss of viewership when Memphis (and SMU/USF) depart.

4. As a result, the AAC schools could take a significant cut in revenue.

5. Alternatively, ESPN could push the AAC to replace Memphis and any other teams that depart. The "AAC remainers" would prefer to add Air Force and Colorado State. It has been speculated that they added three Texas schools to make it easier for those two MWC schools to join the AAC after Memphis departs.
However, there may be no more than a 50/50 chance that they will join the AAC.

6. There will be major changes in 2031-32:
  • It seems very unlikely that the AAC's two-tiered revenue system will be extended beyond 2032.
    .
  • Without Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, or SMU, the only current premier-level programs remaining in the AAC would be Navy and Wichita State.
    .
  • The best the AAC can probably hope for would be for schools such as Temple, UAB, or North Texas to develop NCAA tournament-quality MBB programs powers and for 1 or 2, such as UTSA to emerge as the next Boise or Appalachian State.
    .
  • When the time comes for them to negotiate a new broadcasting agreement with ESPN (their current deal expires after the 2031-32 season), the AAC might drop down in stature to the point of being a middle-of-the-pack G5 conference.
    .

.

The AAC remainers' current "gravy train" may only continue until its broadcasting agreement expires or is renegotiated downward.

Overall, the long-term prognosis for the AAC may not be any brighter than the prognosis for any of the other G5 conferences.

Ranking the G5 conferences (after the membership changes* go into effect):

*Expected membership changes include departure of Memphis & SMU from AAC.

Football:

#1 MWC (tie) - top programs: SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Air Force
#1 SBC (tie) - top programs: App St., Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
#3 CUSA - top programs: Liberty, WKU, SHSU
#4 AAC (tie) - top program: UTSA, Navy, Tulsa
#4 MAC (tie) - top programs: NIU, Toledo, WMU

Basketball:

#1 MWC - top programs: SDSU, Utah St., Colorado St., Boise St.
#2 CUSA - top programs: LTU, LU, NMSU, WKU
#3 AAC - top programs: Wichita St., UAB, Temple/N. Texas
#4 MAC - top programs: Buffalo, Toledo, Akron
#5 SBC - top programs: Georgia St., Texas St.

Looking ahead, the MWC seems to be in a far better position than the AAC is in. The only thing that the AAC has going for it now is that it has the best broadcasting arrangements, but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade.

.

That's just dumb. How about you build a case based on the actual membership each conference will have, instead of using some obscure conspiracy based on further movement?

In football the top spot is most likely to be a toss up between the American and the MWC. After those two the Sun Belt will hold down the 3rd spot. Right now it looks like the MAC will be 4th. And the C-USA 4.0 will be last until the new membership can prove they can complete at the FBS level.

What are you talking about?

The MWC is already ahead of the AAC in the Massey Composite even with UCF, Houston and Cincinnati included.


https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

With the Big 12 3 removed the AAC is way behind the MWC in every ranking. Massey, Sagarin, Billingsly

The new AAC falls to a solid 3rd G5 in football. 2nd in basketball with SMU and Memphis gone the AAC falls to 4th in basketball.

Milwaukee was correct on his well thought out assessment.

Show some valid data to support your opinion instead of spouting off that’s “dumb”


While I don’t agree with most of @Milwaukee’s post 81, he is correct that the AAC will have the best media exposure “but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade”

Only 8 years.

That makes me so sad.

So sad, but luckily I have all of 8 years to get over my sadness.



8 years plus 20 days to be precise.
12-11-2021 04:42 PM
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Dawgxas Offline
#FreeDeb025

Posts: 6,874
Joined: Jan 2015
I Root For: Louisiana Tech
Location:
Post: #87
RE: What is Your Take on the Great C-USA Debate?
(12-11-2021 04:21 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 03:25 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 02:55 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 12:28 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  
(12-04-2021 11:27 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  The MWC could go to the next 5 NY6 bowls and they still wouldn't equal the number of NY6 checks the AAC has cashed.

The MWC's Thompson was interviewed while Utah State was whipping San Diego and looked lost.

IMO, the AAC will continue to do what they have been doing. Their budget strategy has won the day.

That's the way it looks now, but 6 of the 8 AAC schools are no better off than the SBC schools, and there could be a lot of changes left in store for the AAC "remainers":

1. Memphis and either SMU or USF are expected to join the Big 12, and they may do so as early as 2025 or 2026. SMU currently seems the likeliest to join Memphis in the Big 12.

2. The news of their impending departure could be announced as early as 2022, or soon after UT and OU announce whether they will begin playing in the SEC in 2023, '24, or '25.

3. Soon after the news is announced, ESPN may announce that they are renegotiating the terms of their contract with the AAC downward, due to the expected loss of viewership when Memphis (and SMU/USF) depart.

4. As a result, the AAC schools could take a significant cut in revenue.

5. Alternatively, ESPN could push the AAC to replace Memphis and any other teams that depart. The "AAC remainers" would prefer to add Air Force and Colorado State. It has been speculated that they added three Texas schools to make it easier for those two MWC schools to join the AAC after Memphis departs.
However, there may be no more than a 50/50 chance that they will join the AAC.

6. There will be major changes in 2031-32:
  • It seems very unlikely that the AAC's two-tiered revenue system will be extended beyond 2032.
    .
  • Without Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, or SMU, the only current premier-level programs remaining in the AAC would be Navy and Wichita State.
    .
  • The best the AAC can probably hope for would be for schools such as Temple, UAB, or North Texas to develop NCAA tournament-quality MBB programs powers and for 1 or 2, such as UTSA to emerge as the next Boise or Appalachian State.
    .
  • When the time comes for them to negotiate a new broadcasting agreement with ESPN (their current deal expires after the 2031-32 season), the AAC might drop down in stature to the point of being a middle-of-the-pack G5 conference.
    .

.

The AAC remainers' current "gravy train" may only continue until its broadcasting agreement expires or is renegotiated downward.

Overall, the long-term prognosis for the AAC may not be any brighter than the prognosis for any of the other G5 conferences.

Ranking the G5 conferences (after the membership changes* go into effect):

*Expected membership changes include departure of Memphis & SMU from AAC.

Football:

#1 MWC (tie) - top programs: SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Air Force
#1 SBC (tie) - top programs: App St., Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
#3 CUSA - top programs: Liberty, WKU, SHSU
#4 AAC (tie) - top program: UTSA, Navy, Tulsa
#4 MAC (tie) - top programs: NIU, Toledo, WMU

Basketball:

#1 MWC - top programs: SDSU, Utah St., Colorado St., Boise St.
#2 CUSA - top programs: LTU, LU, NMSU, WKU
#3 AAC - top programs: Wichita St., UAB, Temple/N. Texas
#4 MAC - top programs: Buffalo, Toledo, Akron
#5 SBC - top programs: Georgia St., Texas St.

Looking ahead, the MWC seems to be in a far better position than the AAC is in. The only thing that the AAC has going for it now is that it has the best broadcasting arrangements, but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade.

.

That's just dumb. How about you build a case based on the actual membership each conference will have, instead of using some obscure conspiracy based on further movement?

In football the top spot is most likely to be a toss up between the American and the MWC. After those two the Sun Belt will hold down the 3rd spot. Right now it looks like the MAC will be 4th. And the C-USA 4.0 will be last until the new membership can prove they can complete at the FBS level.

What are you talking about?

The MWC is already ahead of the AAC in the Massey Composite even with UCF, Houston and Cincinnati included.


https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

With the Big 12 3 removed the AAC is way behind the MWC in every ranking. Massey, Sagarin, Billingsly

The new AAC falls to a solid 3rd G5 in football. 2nd in basketball with SMU and Memphis gone the AAC falls to 4th in basketball.

Milwaukee was correct on his well thought out assessment.

Show some valid data to support your opinion instead of spouting off that’s “dumb”

Records and rankings (Coaches/AP) of programs that will be in each conference in 2023....

AAC
#25/#24 UTSA 11-1
SMU 8-4
UAB 8-4
ECU 7-5
Memphis 6-6
Tulsa 6-6
UNT 6-6
FAU 5-7
Charlotte 5-7
Rice 4-8
Navy 3-8
Temple 3-8
Tulane 2-10
USF 2-10

vs.

MWC
San Diego St 11-2
Utah St 10-3
Air Force 9-3
Fresno St 9-3
Nevada 8-4
Boise St 7-5
Wyoming 6-6
Hawaii 6-7
San Jose St 5-7
Colorado St 3-9
New Mexico 3-9
UNLV 2-10

Right now, I just don't see much difference in these two conferences. Again, he based much of his opinion on his hopes of some members of the American leaving... That makes it dumb.


You posted records and stated “not much difference” but every data driven ranking disagrees with you.

And it’s not even close, MWC is head and shoulders above the new AAC


MWC (Sagarin Avg)
79

AAC
102



More useful comparison would be comparing the new AAC to the Sunbelt.

The MWC will be much better in basketball than the AAC also
12-12-2021 09:11 AM
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Side.Show.Joe Offline
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*

Posts: 4,883
Joined: Jan 2021
Reputation: 960
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Post: #88
RE: What is Your Take on the Great C-USA Debate?
(12-12-2021 09:11 AM)Dawgxas Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 04:21 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 03:25 PM)Dawgxas Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 02:55 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  
(12-11-2021 12:28 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  That's the way it looks now, but 6 of the 8 AAC schools are no better off than the SBC schools, and there could be a lot of changes left in store for the AAC "remainers":

1. Memphis and either SMU or USF are expected to join the Big 12, and they may do so as early as 2025 or 2026. SMU currently seems the likeliest to join Memphis in the Big 12.

2. The news of their impending departure could be announced as early as 2022, or soon after UT and OU announce whether they will begin playing in the SEC in 2023, '24, or '25.

3. Soon after the news is announced, ESPN may announce that they are renegotiating the terms of their contract with the AAC downward, due to the expected loss of viewership when Memphis (and SMU/USF) depart.

4. As a result, the AAC schools could take a significant cut in revenue.

5. Alternatively, ESPN could push the AAC to replace Memphis and any other teams that depart. The "AAC remainers" would prefer to add Air Force and Colorado State. It has been speculated that they added three Texas schools to make it easier for those two MWC schools to join the AAC after Memphis departs.
However, there may be no more than a 50/50 chance that they will join the AAC.

6. There will be major changes in 2031-32:
  • It seems very unlikely that the AAC's two-tiered revenue system will be extended beyond 2032.
    .
  • Without Cincy, Houston, UCF, Memphis, or SMU, the only current premier-level programs remaining in the AAC would be Navy and Wichita State.
    .
  • The best the AAC can probably hope for would be for schools such as Temple, UAB, or North Texas to develop NCAA tournament-quality MBB programs powers and for 1 or 2, such as UTSA to emerge as the next Boise or Appalachian State.
    .
  • When the time comes for them to negotiate a new broadcasting agreement with ESPN (their current deal expires after the 2031-32 season), the AAC might drop down in stature to the point of being a middle-of-the-pack G5 conference.
    .

.

The AAC remainers' current "gravy train" may only continue until its broadcasting agreement expires or is renegotiated downward.

Overall, the long-term prognosis for the AAC may not be any brighter than the prognosis for any of the other G5 conferences.

Ranking the G5 conferences (after the membership changes* go into effect):

*Expected membership changes include departure of Memphis & SMU from AAC.

Football:

#1 MWC (tie) - top programs: SDSU, Fresno St., Nevada, Air Force
#1 SBC (tie) - top programs: App St., Louisiana, Coastal Carolina
#3 CUSA - top programs: Liberty, WKU, SHSU
#4 AAC (tie) - top program: UTSA, Navy, Tulsa
#4 MAC (tie) - top programs: NIU, Toledo, WMU

Basketball:

#1 MWC - top programs: SDSU, Utah St., Colorado St., Boise St.
#2 CUSA - top programs: LTU, LU, NMSU, WKU
#3 AAC - top programs: Wichita St., UAB, Temple/N. Texas
#4 MAC - top programs: Buffalo, Toledo, Akron
#5 SBC - top programs: Georgia St., Texas St.

Looking ahead, the MWC seems to be in a far better position than the AAC is in. The only thing that the AAC has going for it now is that it has the best broadcasting arrangements, but that will only continue to be the case til the end of the decade.

.

That's just dumb. How about you build a case based on the actual membership each conference will have, instead of using some obscure conspiracy based on further movement?

In football the top spot is most likely to be a toss up between the American and the MWC. After those two the Sun Belt will hold down the 3rd spot. Right now it looks like the MAC will be 4th. And the C-USA 4.0 will be last until the new membership can prove they can complete at the FBS level.

What are you talking about?

The MWC is already ahead of the AAC in the Massey Composite even with UCF, Houston and Cincinnati included.


https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

With the Big 12 3 removed the AAC is way behind the MWC in every ranking. Massey, Sagarin, Billingsly

The new AAC falls to a solid 3rd G5 in football. 2nd in basketball with SMU and Memphis gone the AAC falls to 4th in basketball.

Milwaukee was correct on his well thought out assessment.

Show some valid data to support your opinion instead of spouting off that’s “dumb”

Records and rankings (Coaches/AP) of programs that will be in each conference in 2023....

AAC
#25/#24 UTSA 11-1
SMU 8-4
UAB 8-4
ECU 7-5
Memphis 6-6
Tulsa 6-6
UNT 6-6
FAU 5-7
Charlotte 5-7
Rice 4-8
Navy 3-8
Temple 3-8
Tulane 2-10
USF 2-10

vs.

MWC
San Diego St 11-2
Utah St 10-3
Air Force 9-3
Fresno St 9-3
Nevada 8-4
Boise St 7-5
Wyoming 6-6
Hawaii 6-7
San Jose St 5-7
Colorado St 3-9
New Mexico 3-9
UNLV 2-10

Right now, I just don't see much difference in these two conferences. Again, he based much of his opinion on his hopes of some members of the American leaving... That makes it dumb.


You posted records and stated “not much difference” but every data driven ranking disagrees with you.

And it’s not even close, MWC is head and shoulders above the new AAC


MWC (Sagarin Avg)
79

AAC
102



More useful comparison would be comparing the new AAC to the Sunbelt.

The MWC will be much better in basketball than the AAC also

When it comes to G5 football, I trust the records more than I trust Sagarin. The MWC got a few more OOC wins because they play more programs from the PAC instead of playing other P5 conference. It's easier for them. I get it. But the PAC isn't what it used to be and the MWC is benefiting in the record column. Good for them. But, the other G5's are facing better overall P5 competition from SEC, BIG10, ACC, & Big12 programs. I watch MWC football. They don't look any better than the teams that will make up the future American.
12-12-2021 03:22 PM
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