UC #4
SDSU #19
Houston #21
Louisiana #24

Safe to say winner of UC vs Houston takes at least the NY6 bowl bid once more for the AAC

Worst case scenario for UC playoff chances other than losing to Houston
Win a close game over Houston
Bama wins close game over Georgia
Michigan wins BigTen
Oklahoma State beats Baylor.

This could vault OKState over UC.

what about #12 BYU and #6 Notre Dame? don't think there is enough NY6 to go around.

(11-30-2021 07:22 PM)willhclark Wrote:  what about BYU and Notre Dame?

For playoffs no shot

Neither can take the best G5 champ slot as independents

so one of them is left out in the cold?

(11-30-2021 07:22 PM)willhclark Wrote:  what about BYU and Notre Dame?

nd is a lock for a ny6... with possibility of a playoff

byu likely has no realistic shot at a ny6 at 12

(11-30-2021 07:25 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:22 PM)willhclark Wrote:  what about BYU and Notre Dame?

nd is a lock for a ny6... with possibility of a playoff

byu likely has no realistic shot at a ny6 at 12

Yup.

(11-30-2021 07:25 PM)pesik Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:22 PM)willhclark Wrote:  what about BYU and Notre Dame?

nd is a lock for a ny6... with possibility of a playoff

byu likely has no realistic shot at a ny6 at 12

Yes but neither can take a NY6 spot from the AAC champ

The winner of #5 OK State vs #9 Baylor for B12 Conf champ game could easily jump ahead of #4 Cinci. especially Okie state

(11-30-2021 07:28 PM)willhclark Wrote:  The winner of #5 OK State vs #9 Baylor for B12 Conf champ game could easily jump ahead of #4 Cinci. especially Okie state

baylor has no chance, but yes for okastate

(11-30-2021 07:28 PM)willhclark Wrote:  The winner of #5 OK State vs #9 Baylor for B12 Conf champ game could easily jump ahead of #4 Cinci. especially Okie state

Correct. Cincy just needs one of these teams to win: UGA, Iowa, Baylor. If all 3 lose Cincy is out imo

(11-30-2021 07:37 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:28 PM)willhclark Wrote:  The winner of #5 OK State vs #9 Baylor for B12 Conf champ game could easily jump ahead of #4 Cinci. especially Okie state

Correct. Cincy just needs one of these teams to win: UGA, Iowa, Baylor. If all 3 lose Cincy is out imo

I think the score of the AAC CCG and the Big 12 CCG matters. If yall stomp us I think it'll be pretty hard to put Okst ahead unless they win convincingly.

(11-30-2021 07:37 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:28 PM)willhclark Wrote:  The winner of #5 OK State vs #9 Baylor for B12 Conf champ game could easily jump ahead of #4 Cinci. especially Okie state

Correct. Cincy just needs one of these teams to win: UGA, Iowa, Baylor. If all 3 lose Cincy is out imo

I like those odds if UC wins by any score.

(11-30-2021 07:48 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:37 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:28 PM)willhclark Wrote:  The winner of #5 OK State vs #9 Baylor for B12 Conf champ game could easily jump ahead of #4 Cinci. especially Okie state

Correct. Cincy just needs one of these teams to win: UGA, Iowa, Baylor. If all 3 lose Cincy is out imo

I think the score of the AAC CCG and the Big 12 CCG matters. If yall stomp us I think it'll be pretty hard to put Okst ahead unless they win convincingly.

Pollack on the ESPN show said as much about watching scores / margin of victory.

Ironically, and this is the cynic in me speaking, if Cincinnati blows out Houston (no Houston fans, I am not predicting that) it could work against them as much as a close or last-minute or "fluky" win -- the powers that be would use a blowout to dismiss (then) 11-2 Houston.

Best case is a two-to-three TD margin, with Cincinnati just being methodical and professional and passing the eye-test, but Houston still holding their own and looking good.

The fact that this is a legitimate discussion highlights the corruption and bias in the CFP Invitational system.

(11-30-2021 07:37 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:28 PM)willhclark Wrote:  The winner of #5 OK State vs #9 Baylor for B12 Conf champ game could easily jump ahead of #4 Cinci. especially Okie state

Correct. Cincy just needs one of these teams to win: UGA, Iowa, Baylor. If all 3 lose Cincy is out imo

I agree with that. The only iffy thing would be if Alabama and Georgia play a really close game, like if it goes to overtime. Then I could see Alabama edging out Cincy.

Not sitting at 3. A loss of any kind will drop them...and more than one spot.

They won’t only drop from 3 to 4...no way they rematch.

Alabama loses and they are out of the running.

Way over thinking it from UC perspective. UC wins and they are in regardless of what happens with the other teams. Now if UC wants to feel safe and secure then Alabama losing would definitely make that feeling happen.

(11-30-2021 08:02 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:48 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:37 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 07:28 PM)willhclark Wrote:  The winner of #5 OK State vs #9 Baylor for B12 Conf champ game could easily jump ahead of #4 Cinci. especially Okie state

Correct. Cincy just needs one of these teams to win: UGA, Iowa, Baylor. If all 3 lose Cincy is out imo

I think the score of the AAC CCG and the Big 12 CCG matters. If yall stomp us I think it'll be pretty hard to put Okst ahead unless they win convincingly.

Pollack on the ESPN show said as much about watching scores / margin of victory.

Ironically, and this is the cynic in me speaking, if Cincinnati blows out Houston (no Houston fans, I am not predicting that) it could work against them as much as a close or last-minute or "fluky" win -- the powers that be would use a blowout to dismiss (then) 11-2 Houston.

Best case is a two-to-three TD margin, with Cincinnati just being methodical and professional and passing the eye-test, but Houston still holding their own and looking good.

The fact that this is a legitimate discussion highlights the corruption and bias in the CFP Invitational system.

May be a moot point if Cincy doesn't win. Cincy hasn't faced a front 4 like Houston's since, maybe, Notre Dame. But even then, I think Houston's front 4 pass rushing ability is Top 15 in the country. Those dudes can fly.

Cincinnati needs to focus on winning, by any number.

If I'm a betting man, I'd say Michigan loses to Iowa and none of this matters. Harbaugh is known for shitting the bed in big games, as they did against Michigan State. Against Ohio State they were winning by too much for his ineptitude to shine through. Iowa's defense is better than Ohio State's so I'd expect a closer game there.

(11-30-2021 09:09 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  Way over thinking it from UC perspective. UC wins and they are in regardless of what happens with the other teams. Now if UC wants to feel safe and secure then Alabama losing would definitely make that feeling happen.

No. It's not that simple.

If Oklahoma State, Alabama, and Michigan win Cincinnati is left out. In playing parlays, I can tell you that the odds of all four of the aforementioned teams winning are quite low. But there is a scenario that sees Cincinnati being left out.

Alabama is going to get beat really handily by Georgia. They'll probably miss the playoffs this year.

(12-01-2021 11:01 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 09:09 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  Way over thinking it from UC perspective. UC wins and they are in regardless of what happens with the other teams. Now if UC wants to feel safe and secure then Alabama losing would definitely make that feeling happen.

No. It's not that simple.

If Oklahoma State, Alabama, and Michigan win Cincinnati is left out. In playing parlays, I can tell you that the odds of all four of the aforementioned teams winning are quite low. But there is a scenario that sees Cincinnati being left out.

I agree. UC needs to win and OSU, Bama or UM needs to lose. If they all happen to win, I think it it a coin flip for OSU/UC for the 4th spot.