Crayton
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Order of Finish (possible final rankings)
The penultimate rankings will be released tonight. I've compiled Predicted Order of Finishes from 538, ESPN, and myself, as we look ahead to the final rankings. 538's is a little different than the other two, but there is not much too surprising. The biggest surprise, perhaps, is that in each prediction 11-1 Notre Dame is favored over 11-2 Alabama, if barely.
What is your predicted Order Of Finish?
Crayton's
1) 13-0 Georgia
2) 12-1 Alabama
3) 12-1 Georgia*1
4) 12-1 Michigan*1
5) 13-0 Cincinnati
6) 11-1 Notre Dame*2
7) 11-2 Alabama*2
8) 12-1 OK State
9) 11-2 Michigan*3
10) 11-2 Iowa*3
*indicates an order of finish that could be changed by a close game or a blowout.
ESPN's
1) 13-0 Georgia
2) 12-1 Alabama
3) 12-1 Georgia
4) 12-1 Michigan*1
5) 13-0 Cincinnati*1
6) 11-1 Notre Dame*2
7) 12-1 OK State*2
8) 11-2 Alabama
9) 11-2 Michigan*3
10) 10-2 Ohio State*3
Nearly identical to mine. Primary functional difference is that 12-1 OK State is flipped with 11-2 Alabama in a "tie" with 11-1 Notre Dame. ESPN also has Ohio State, not Iowa, challenging 11-2 Michigan for the chaos spot.
FiveThirtyEight's
1) 13-0 Georgia
2) 12-1 Michigan*1
3) 12-1 Alabama*1
4) 12-1 OK State
5) 13-0 Cincinnati
6) 12-1 Georgia
7) 11-2 Baylor*2
8) 11-1 Notre Dame*2^
9) 11-2 Alabama*2
10) 11-2 Oregon*3
11) 11-2 Iowa*3
^Notre Dame is virtually eliminated if Cincinnati beats Houston
Not 'too' dissimilar. The main difference is the heightened value of winning the Big 12. The elimination of Notre Dame if Cincy wins is an odd quirk, but I suppose it follows a logic that you don't want a team who already lost to a playoff participant also in the playoff (which may also point to Georgia's drop below Cincy). In the chaos spot, 538 includes Oregon and Iowa, rather than Michigan and Ohio State. As is apparent, 538 places a discrete premium on winning a P5 conference, perhaps appropriately so.
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2021 02:19 PM by Crayton.)
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11-30-2021 01:25 PM |
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Crayton
All American
Posts: 3,351
Joined: Feb 2019
Reputation: 187
I Root For: Florida
Location:
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RE: Order of Finish (possible final rankings)
Now that the CFP Rankings are out, I'd summarize this board's anticipated Order of Finish thusly:
1) 13-0 Georgia
2) 12-1 Alabama
3) 12-1 Michigan
4) 12-1 Georgia
5) 12-1 OK State*1
6) 13-0 Cincinnati*1
7) 11-2 Alabama*2
8) 11-1 Notre Dame*2
9) 11-2 Baylor*3
10) 11-2 Michigan*3
11) 10-2 Ohio St*3
12) 11-2 Iowa*3
There hasn't been much discussion beyond Baylor for the chaos spot: if Cincy, OK State, AND Michigan all lose.
With the Rankings Release, 538's model also got an update. In this update 11-2 Alabama's odds inexplicable decrease as more contenders (Cincy, OKSt, UM) lose. Again, I think it is some weird 538 thing where they don't want to put Alabama in with (or near?) a team (Georgia) to whom they lost.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2021 08:22 PM by Crayton.)
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12-01-2021 02:08 PM |
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