As we face the end of the season, some football fans will wonder "What If...?" What if Auburn had put things away this past weekend? What if Notre Dame had defeated Cincinnati? What if San Diego State was undefeated? What if Purdue did not upset Michigan State?

Here is a way of grading teams' playoff chances with only CCG remaining.
A - in the playoff no matter what
B - MAY drop out of the playoff with a loss
C - WILL drop out of the playoff with a loss
D - needs help, even with a win
F - eliminated, or <1% chance overall

Here are the grades in a few different scenarios?

Real World
A - Georgia
B - Alabama, Michigan
C - Cincinnati
D - OK State, Notre Dame

"What If" Harsin goes for 2
A - Georgia
B - Michigan
C - Cincinnati, Alabama
D - OK State, Notre Dame, Ohio State

"What If" Frost finishes the job against Harbaugh
A - Georgia
B - Alabama
C- Cincinnati
D - OK State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Iowa

"What If" Cristobal survives The Farm
A - Georgia
B - Alabama
C - Michigan, Cincinnati
D - OK State, Notre Dame, Oregon

What is your "What If...?"
Try and keep them to 1 or only a few changes.

(11-28-2021 06:19 PM)Crayton Wrote:  As we face the end of the season, some football fans will wonder "What If...?" What if Auburn had put things away this past weekend? What if Notre Dame had defeated Cincinnati? What if San Diego State was undefeated? What if Purdue did not upset Michigan State?

Here is a way of grading teams' playoff chances with only CCG remaining.
A - in the playoff no matter what
B - MAY drop out of the playoff with a loss
C - WILL drop out of the playoff with a loss
D - needs help, even with a win
F - eliminated, or <1% chance overall

Here are the grades in a few different scenarios?

Real World
A - Georgia
B - Alabama, Michigan
C - Cincinnati
D - OK State, Notre Dame

My grades for the "real world" scenarios:

Georgia .................. A- (may drop out only if shellacked in CCG)
Alabama ................. B- (likely out with loss, some chance of remaining in)
Michigan ................. C+ (very likely out with loss, slight chance of remaining in)
Cincy ...................... D+ (Out with loss, likely in with win, but could miss out)
OK State ................. D (Out with loss, could be in with win, but could miss out)
Notre Dame ............. D- (Out with loss, slight chance to get in with win)

(11-28-2021 10:30 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 06:19 PM)Crayton Wrote:  As we face the end of the season, some football fans will wonder "What If...?" What if Auburn had put things away this past weekend? What if Notre Dame had defeated Cincinnati? What if San Diego State was undefeated? What if Purdue did not upset Michigan State?

Here is a way of grading teams' playoff chances with only CCG remaining.
A - in the playoff no matter what
B - MAY drop out of the playoff with a loss
C - WILL drop out of the playoff with a loss
D - needs help, even with a win
F - eliminated, or <1% chance overall

Here are the grades in a few different scenarios?

Real World
A - Georgia
B - Alabama, Michigan
C - Cincinnati
D - OK State, Notre Dame

My grades for the "real world" scenarios:

Georgia .................. A- (may drop out only if shellacked in CCG)
Alabama ................. B- (likely out with loss, some chance of remaining in)
Michigan ................. C+ (very likely out with loss, slight chance of remaining in)
Cincy ...................... D+ (Out with loss, likely in with win, but could miss out)
OK State ................. D (Out with loss, could be in with win, but could miss out)
Notre Dame ............. D- (Out with loss, slight chance to get in with win)

On a positive note, we will most likely get at least 1 new face in the CFP with a chance at 3.

CCG Winners Scenarios: Schools listed #1-#4
GA/MI/OKST/CIN: GA MI OKST CIN
GA/MI/OKST/HOU: GA MI OKST ND
GA/MI/BAY/CIN: GA MI CIN ND
GA/MI/BAY/HOU: GA MI ND AL
GA/IA/OKST/CIN: GA OKST AL CIN
GA/IA/BAY/CIN: GA CIN ND AL
GA/IA/OKST/HOU: GA OKST ND AL
GA/IA/BAY/HOU: GA ND AL OHST
AL/MI/OKST/CIN: AL MI GA OKST
AL/MI/OKST/HOU: AL MI GA OKST
AL/MI/BAY/CIN: AL MI GA CIN
AL/MI/BAY/HOU: AL MI GA ND
AL/IA/OKST/CIN: AL OKST GA CIN
AL/IA/BAY/CIN: AL CIN GA ND
AL/IA/OKST/HOU: AL OKST GA ND
AL/IA/BAY/HOU: AL GA ND OHST

I hope the committee gives Cincinnati a chance.
I do see apocalyptic scenarios where Ohio St gets the #4 seed (Michigan, Oklahoma St, and Cincinnati all lose CCG); I think the Buckeyes get in over 2-loss conference champions Baylor.
The 6th scenario is incredibly intriguing as it plays 2 rematches in the semifinals.

^I see Michigan hanging on in most of those apocalyptic scenarios, due to their head-to-head over Ohio State. I think in an extreme scenario 11-2 Iowa (with head-to-head over Michigan and the conference championship and the 13th data point over Ohio State) makes the jump to #4.

(11-29-2021 04:23 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 10:30 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 06:19 PM)Crayton Wrote:  As we face the end of the season, some football fans will wonder "What If...?" What if Auburn had put things away this past weekend? What if Notre Dame had defeated Cincinnati? What if San Diego State was undefeated? What if Purdue did not upset Michigan State?

Here is a way of grading teams' playoff chances with only CCG remaining.
A - in the playoff no matter what
B - MAY drop out of the playoff with a loss
C - WILL drop out of the playoff with a loss
D - needs help, even with a win
F - eliminated, or <1% chance overall

Here are the grades in a few different scenarios?

Real World
A - Georgia
B - Alabama, Michigan
C - Cincinnati
D - OK State, Notre Dame

My grades for the "real world" scenarios:

Georgia .................. A- (may drop out only if shellacked in CCG)
Alabama ................. B- (likely out with loss, some chance of remaining in)
Michigan ................. C+ (very likely out with loss, slight chance of remaining in)
Cincy ...................... D+ (Out with loss, likely in with win, but could miss out)
OK State ................. D (Out with loss, could be in with win, but could miss out)
Notre Dame ............. D- (Out with loss, slight chance to get in with win)

On a positive note, we will most likely get at least 1 new face in the CFP with a chance at 3.

CCG Winners Scenarios: Schools listed #1-#4
GA/MI/OKST/CIN: GA MI OKST CIN
GA/MI/OKST/HOU: GA MI OKST ND
GA/MI/BAY/CIN: GA MI CIN ND
GA/MI/BAY/HOU: GA MI ND AL
GA/IA/OKST/CIN: GA OKST AL CIN
GA/IA/BAY/CIN: GA CIN ND AL
GA/IA/OKST/HOU: GA OKST ND AL
GA/IA/BAY/HOU: GA ND AL OHST
AL/MI/OKST/CIN: AL MI GA OKST
AL/MI/OKST/HOU: AL MI GA OKST
AL/MI/BAY/CIN: AL MI GA CIN
AL/MI/BAY/HOU: AL MI GA ND
AL/IA/OKST/CIN: AL OKST GA CIN
AL/IA/BAY/CIN: AL CIN GA ND
AL/IA/OKST/HOU: AL OKST GA ND
AL/IA/BAY/HOU: AL GA ND OHST

I hope the committee gives Cincinnati a chance.
I do see apocalyptic scenarios where Ohio St gets the #4 seed (Michigan, Oklahoma St, and Cincinnati all lose CCG); I think the Buckeyes get in over 2-loss conference champions Baylor.
The 6th scenario is incredibly intriguing as it plays 2 rematches in the semifinals.

This is still how it looks to be

"What If..." The Baylor Bears don't get that 2nd goal line stand. Who gets the 4-seed?

(12-05-2021 12:10 AM)Crayton Wrote:  "What If..." The Baylor Bears don't get that 2nd goal line stand. Who gets the 4-seed?

With how bad Oklahoma St looked combined with how good Cincy looked today, I think it'd be Cincy.

I had a dream the other day that a team scored a touchdown toward the end of the game to go ahead 1. They went for 2, to take a FG lead, because leading by 1 or 2 makes no difference. They botch the try and the other team runs it back to take both the lead and the ball.

As that game was coming to a close I wondered if I might have unlocked some super-human power of premonition. Alas. Still me.

With the obvious bias of seeing OK State lose, I tend to agree that had the Cowboys won at the close of that game Cincinnati would have put together a more defensible case for playoff inclusion.

(11-28-2021 06:19 PM)Crayton Wrote:  "What If" Frost finishes the job against Harbaugh
A - Georgia
B - Alabama
C- Cincinnati
D - OK State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Iowa

Ohio State gets to pound Iowa after their heartbreaker loss to Michigan. 11-2 Ohio State or 11-1 Notre Dame? Thinking Ohio State repeats 2014 and leaps into the playoff due to their strong CCG performance.

What if... Notre Dame was a full ACC member this year, won the ACC Championship, and is 12-1? Would they have put them in over Georgia?