Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/21/21
From an OVERALL Perspective...
While there were only six teams who were eliminated this week, and only a few upsets at the highest levels, there were a number of teams in the middle of the I-AA pack who blew their chances at securing their At-Large spots and join a crowded field of 6 and 7 win teams. There is a bigger breakdown at the end of this article, but there will be a number of teams that are very close to getting in...which will definitely lead to arguments before/during/after the selection show.
To make the playoffs you have to either win a conference Automatic Qualifier (AQ) spot or receive an At-Large bid. To be eligible for an At-Large, technically you need to have at least 6 wins. However, it is very difficult for a 6-win team to claim a spot. Most years, there are enough teams with 7+ wins and a decent resume. (And on my charts, the only games that are considered to be wins are ones against D1 teams – lower division wins do not count. So they are basically the same as losses.) This year, there are 11 AQ spots (an increase of one due to the ASUN/WAC “challenge”) and 13 At-Large spots.
From a JMU Perspective...
JMU was already a lock for a playoff spot entering the final weekend, so all focus turned to earning the highest Seed possible. The first task was beating Towson. A loss in JMU’s final real CAA game ever could very easily have knocked JMU out of the Seed race entirely, but fortunately the Dukes crushed Towson by 46 points.
Then, we needed to watch to see if there were any upsets amongst fellow Top 5 teams. Sam Houston had no problem with Abilene Christian, so that likely locks up the #1 Seed for them. (They are the defending champ and the only undefeated team in I-AA, so it would be a shock to see them any lower than the top spot.) JMU did receive some excellent help, though, by having Montana knock off Montana State by a good margin. That will definitely drop Montana State out of the Top 5.
Unfortunately, there were not too many other upsets in upper echelons of I-AA, so while a high Seed is almost certain (there are only two other teams with ten D1 wins), it will be difficult to get into the heads of the Committee.
But more on that at the end of the article...
By the Numbers (108 total teams)...
Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/24 – 91
10/31 – 74
11/7 – 65
11/14 – 50
11/21 – 44
Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/24 – 74
10/31 – 66
11/7 – 61
11/14 – 47
11/21 – 33
Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/24 – 11
10/31 – 19
11/7 – 28
11/14 – 29
11/21 – 33
Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.
Clinched Conference Titles
ASUN/WAC – Sam Houston State
Big Sky – Sacramento State
Big South – Kennesaw State
CAA – Villanova
MVC – NDSU
NEC – Sacred Heart
OVC – Tenn-Martin
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Davidson
SoCon – ETSU
Southland – Incarnate Word
CAA Football (7 Teams Alive)
Villanova – 9 wins – clinched AQ
JMU – 10 wins
URI – 7 wins
W&M – 6 wins
Elon – 6 wins
Richmond – 6 wins
Maine – 6 wins
ASUN/WAC (3 Teams Alive)
Sam Houston State – 10 wins – clinched AQ
EKU – 7 wins
Stephen F. Austin – 7 wins
Big Sky (6 Teams Alive)
Sacramento State – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Montana State – 9 wins
Montana – 9 wins
UC Davis – 8 wins
EWU – 8 wins
Weber State – 6 wins
Big South (2 Teams Alive)
Kennesaw State – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Monmouth – 7 wins
MEAC (0 Teams Alive – No AQ)
SC State – 6 wins – clinched “bowl” game
MVC (6 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 10 wins – clinched AQ
Missouri State – 8 wins
South Dakota – 7 wins
SIU – 7 wins
SDSU – 7 wins
No. Iowa – 6 wins
NEC (3 Teams Alive)
Sacred Heart – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Bryant – 7 wins
Duquesne – 6 wins
OVC (3 Teams Alive)
Tenn.-Martin – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Austin Peay – 6 wins
Murray State – 6 wins
Patriot League (2 Teams Alive)
Holy Cross – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Fordham – 6 wins
Pioneer League (4 Teams Alive)
Davidson – 7 wins – clinched AQ
San Diego – 7 wins
Morehead State – 6 wins
Dayton – 6 wins
SoCon (5 Teams Alive)
ETSU – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Mercer – 6 wins
Chattanooga – 6 wins
VMI – 6 wins
Furman – 6 wins
Southland (3 Teams Alive)
Incarnate Word – 9 wins – clinched AQ
SE Louisiana – 8 wins
Nicholls State – 6 wins
Finished with 10 wins (without winning AQ):
JMU
Finished with 9 wins (without winning AQ):
Montana
Montana State
Finished with 8 wins (without winning AQ):
SE Louisiana
UC Davis
EWU
Missouri State
Finished with 7 wins (without winning AQ):
URI
EKU
Stephen F. Austin
Monmouth
South Dakota
SIU
SDSU
Bryant
San Diego
Finished with 6 wins (without winning AQ):
W&M
Elon
Richmond
Maine
No. Iowa
Duquesne
Austin Peay
Murray State
Fordham
Morehead State
Dayton
Mercer
Chattanooga
VMI
Furman
Nicholls State
Weber State
Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this past week)
North Alabama (transitioning to I-AA until 2022)
Merrimack (transitioning to I-AA until 2023)
Dixie State (transitioning to I-AA until 2024)
Tarleton State (transitioning to I-AA until 2024)
St. Thomas (transitioning to I-AA until 2024)
McNeese State (postseason ban for low APR)
Albany
UNH
Towson
Stony Brook
Delaware
Jacksonville State
Central Ark
Lamar
Abilene Christian
Northern Colorado
Idaho
Cal Poly
Southern Utah
Idaho State
Portland State
Northern Arizona
NC A&T
Gardner-Webb
Hampton
Campbell
Charleston Southern
Robert Morris
Howard
Morgan State
Delaware State
NC Central
Norfolk State
Illinois State
Indiana State
Youngstown State
W. Illinois
North Dakota
StFU
Wagner
CCSU
LIU
Tenn. State
SE Missouri State
EIU
Tenn. Tech
Lafayette
Georgetown
Lehigh
Bucknell
Colgate
Drake
Butler
Presbyterian
Valparaiso
Stetson
Marist
Western Carolina
Wofford
Citadel
Samford
Houston Baptist
NW State
Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Sam Houston
Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Wagner
Houston Baptist
Conference Analysis
CAA Football – All Villanova needed to do to get the AQ was beat rival Delaware. While it required a 4th quarter comeback, they were able to do it. That also prevents Delaware from getting their 6th win, so they have been eliminated. Of course, JMU also won – so they finish with a tie for the conference title. But we knew coming into this weekend that both Villanova and JMU were heading to the playoffs. The big question was whether any other CAA teams would join them – specifically W&M and URI. At one point, W&M was 6-2 with a great win over Villanova. However, by falling to the Ticks in the final week, they have now lost three games in a row. URI also had a three game losing streak after a strong season start, but they had seemed to turn things around when they were able to beat bad teams in UMass and UNH. If they could beat Elon in the final week, they likely would have had a strong enough resume to get an At-Large. But it was not to be. Elon won by two scores to crush URI’s chances. Looking at the overall picture, I have trouble seeing either W&M or URI making it into the playoffs. Both of them finished 4-4 in CAA...and it’s hard to see a team make it in who can’t even finish .500 in their conference. The same thing is true for Maine – who beat W&M and URI, but lost to Elon and Stony Brook. Elon was able to finish with 6 wins and did finish with a record of 5-3 in the CAA, but they had a horrific loss to Wofford in the first week of the season...which was Wofford’s only win of the season. If Elon had won that game, they would have 7 wins and be in the bubble conversation. But 6 wins and a loss to one of the worst teams in I-AA is not enough.
ASUN/WAC – Sam Houston had already clinched the AQ, so all they had to do was beat a weak Abilene Christian team to lock in the #1 Seed. They had no problem. On the bubble in this conference are EKU and Stephen F Austin. Both teams won their 7th game this week. None of the wins are spectacular, but then neither are any of the losses. These teams will solidly be in the At-Large conversation, although Stephen F Austin will have the edge due to them winning the head-to-head.
Big Sky – Montana knocking off Montana State is not really that big of an upset, but it does at least make the AQ race easy to figure out. Sacramento State wins that due to going 8-0 in the conference. They have some good wins (Montana, UC Davis) and neither of their 2 losses were bad ones. Finishing atop a strong conference such as the Big Sky puts them in a good position for a high Seed. Montana and Montana State both finish with 9 wins, so they will both easily get in to the playoffs – with real possibilities for Seeds for both teams. UC Davis and EWU both have 8 wins – including wins over I-A teams. EWU has also beaten Montana and UC Davis. They should get in easily. UC Davis, however, also has a terrible loss to 1-10 Idaho State. That is going to put them at a huge disadvantage. If they’re going to get in, they will be team #5 from the Big Sky. Weber State is also alive, but only having 6 wins – and meaning that they would have to be team #6 from this conference – which I just can’t see happening.
Big South – Kennesaw and Monmouth played each other for the AQ in the final week – with Kennesaw coming out on top. Kennesaw does have 9 wins, but none of them are that great, so I do not see them as a candidate for a Seed. As for Monmouth, none of their 4 losses are bad, but none of their 7 wins are that great. And getting beaten by 32 points in their final week doesn’t help their case.
MEAC – To make the playoffs, a MEAC team cannot win the conference title (which would send them to the HBCU “bowl” game) and they have to have a very strong resume. SC State just won the conference, so they are going to the Celebration Bowl. No one else can even reach 6 wins.
MVC – Not surprisingly, NDSU won the AQ. Much more surprising was SIU losing again. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 games – and their loss this weekend to Youngstown State was the worst one by far. They are at 7-4 and might be disappointed on Sunday. Also sitting with 7 wins are South Dakota and South Dakota State. They both have some good wins – SDSU beat NDSU while South Dakota beat SDSU – and no terrible losses. Missouri State finished with 8 wins – including in their final four games. Two of their losses are understandable, but they also have a really bad loss to Youngstown. Finishing with 8 wins instead of 7 might be the difference to them getting in versus them being done for the season. Finally, there is Northern Iowa. They always seem to be right on the bubble, but this year will be very tough for them. They only have 6 wins (even though some of them are strong) and are only at 4-4 in the conference.
NEC – Sacred Heart was able to clinch the AQ with a win over LIU in the final weekend. They won’t be a Seeded team, though. Bryant and Duquesne both finished with enough wins to be eligible for an At-Large, but neither of them have a chance.
OVC – I had mentioned a few weeks ago that I felt SEMO was much more dangerous than their record indicated and Tenn-Martin found that out in the final week with a 17-point upset. That loss also ends any claim of Tenn-Martin for a Seed (which would have been a tough argument to begin with). Murray State and Austin Peay both finished with 6 wins, but I don’t think that will be enough.
Patriot – Holy Cross already clinched the AQ and Fordham’s resume is not strong enough for an At-Large. Next...
Pioneer – Davidson was able to wrap up the AQ by beating Drake. Unfortunately for San Diego, before they went on a seven game winning streak, they lost their first four games – culminating with a loss to Davidson – which is what gave Davidson the AQ. The Pioneer is not a conference that earns At-Large spots and this year will be no different.
SoCon – ETSU and Mercer played for the AQ this weekend with ETSU winning. They’ll be going to the playoffs with 9 wins. Surprisingly, none of the other contending SoCon teams stepped up to make a strong At-Large claim. While Furman won, Mercer, Chatty, and VMI all lost. Those four teams each finish with only 6 wins. I would certainly be shocked to see no At-Large bids come from the SoCon, but there might be room for only one of these four to get in. Mercer finished in 2nd place and beat both Furman and Chatty, so I would give them the edge.
Southland – Incarnate Word won the AQ on Thursday when SELA lost to Nicholls State. Incarnate Word will not get a Seed, bu the more important question here is “What happens to SELA?” Their resume is quite weak – even with 8 wins. (Beating up on the Southland teams that the ASUN and WAC didn’t want is not very impressive.) They are on the bubble now and we’ll have to look at the next section to see what happens to them...
My Playoff Picks:
With the 11 AQ spots decided, we need to figure out the 13 At-Large teams. We start with the 33 teams alive for an At-Large spot and then take away the ones who really have no shot. (This would be the NEC, OVC, Patriot, and Pioneer teams.) That gets us down to 25 teams. Then knock off the 6th place teams from the Big Sky and MVC to get us to these 23:
*JMU – 10 wins
*Montana – 9 wins
*Montana State – 9 wins
SE Louisiana – 8 wins
UC Davis – 8 wins
*EWU – 8 wins
*Missouri State – 8 wins
URI – 7 wins
EKU – 7 wins
Stephen F. Austin – 7 wins
Monmouth – 7 wins
*South Dakota – 7 wins
SIU – 7 wins
*SDSU – 7 wins
W&M – 6 wins
Elon – 6 wins
Richmond – 6 wins
Maine – 6 wins
*Mercer – 6 wins
Chattanooga – 6 wins
VMI – 6 wins
Furman – 6 wins
Nicholls State – 6 wins
The teams that have an * before it are teams that I feel are locks, so that brings us to the following 15 teams for only 5 remaining spots:
SE Louisiana – 8 wins
UC Davis – 8 wins
URI – 7 wins
EKU – 7 wins
Stephen F. Austin – 7 wins
Monmouth – 7 wins
SIU – 7 wins
W&M – 6 wins
Elon – 6 wins
Richmond – 6 wins
Maine – 6 wins
Chattanooga – 6 wins
VMI – 6 wins
Furman – 6 wins
Nicholls State – 6 wins
If I had to pick five of them, I would go with Stephen F Austin, UC Davis, SELA, SIU, and Chatty.
Ultimately, here are my picks for Seeds and First-Round match-ups (if I got to make the choices):
Seeds
Seed #1 – Sam Houston
Seed #2 – NDSU
Seed #3 – JMU
Seed #4 – Villanova
Seed #5 – Sacramento State
Seed #6 – Montana
Seed #7 – Missouri State
Seed #8 – Montana State
Round 1
South Dakota
UC Davis
– winner goes to Montana State
SIU
Stephen F. Austin
– winner goes to NDSU
SDSU
EWU
– winner goes to Sacramento State
SELA
Mercer
– winner goes to Missouri State
Chattanooga
Kennesaw State
– winner goes to JMU
Sacred Heart
Holy Cross
– winner goes to Villanova
Davidson
Tenn-Martin
– winner goes to Montana
ETSU
Incarnate Word
– winner goes to Sam Houston State
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