-#21/23 Mercer (7-2/6-1) @ #8/10 ETSU (9-1/6-1) (1 PM, ESPN3)
ETSU maybe gets a low seed with a win.
Mercer might be must win, as only 10 games, 8 So-Con + BAMA and a Div II.

-#24/— Monmouth (7–3/6-0) @ #5/9 KSU (9-1/6-0) (1 PM, ESPN+)
Monmouth is a must win to make playoffs.
KSU maybe gets a low seed with a win.

-#3 MT St (9-1/7-0) @ #7 MT (8-2/5-2) (2 PM, ESPN+)
MT St gets a seed even with a loss. MT maybe gets a low seed with a win.

-#12/13 S Dakota (7-3/5-2) @ #4 NDSU (9-1/6-1) (3 PM, ESPN+)
NDSU probably still gets a low seed with a loss..

-#11/18 Sac St (8-2/7-0) @ UCD #10/11 (8-2/5-2) (4 PM, ESPN+)
Winner maybe gets seed.

CAA games among potential playoff teams:
-VU (8-2/6-1) @ UD (5-5/3-4) (1 PM)
VU has to win to get a seed.

-URI (7-3/4-3) @ Elon (4-3/5-5) (2 PM)

-RU (5-5/3-4) @ W&M (6-4/4-3) (3:30 PM)

*W&M & URI are must wins

Go UD, Montana, SD!

I think a UD win makes a top 4 seed more likely for JMU.
Add a Montana win, and top 2 becomes likely.
And if NDSU goes down with the others, top 2 feels close to a lock.

We definitely need some help for a top 2. We might need some help for a top 4.

would you guys rather play at the Fargodome or at SHSU/Montana ST?

not that i think NDSU is that good this year, but they have a history of winning at home in the playoffs. We are the only team that has taken them down, but that team we had was much better.

so knowing that, we should be rooting for Montana St

I THINK we deserve to be seeded ahead of NDSU. But history and MVC bias says it's likely they will be seeded ahead of us.

so a Montana win over Montana State likely makes the top seeds:

1) Sam Houston
2) NDSU
3) JMU
4 ) who cares

which means we go to the FargoDome in the semis.

A Montana State win makes it:

1) SHS/Montana St
2) Montana St/SHS
3) NDSU
4) JMU

we then go to either SHS or Montana St in the semis

I hope we never go back to the Fargodome. Give me SHSU. Big Montana state fan here this weekend. Big USD fan too. Probably JMU's only shot at a 2 is if NDSU and Montana state go down, and even then Villanova could be seeded ahead of us.

As long as we get the 2 or 4/5 seed im happy. Chances are villanova will be seeded either one above or below us so the travel wont be a factor.

No way Villanova goes ahead of us. Yeah, we lost to them by 1 point, but they got their rears handed to them by the Nerds and only have 9 FCS wins with a win over UD. We have 10 FCS wins after Saturday. If chalk happens this weekend:

1. SHSU
2. Montana St.
3. NDSU
4. JMU

For us to get the 2 seed, both MSU and NDSU have to lose, that could happen.

(11-18-2021 09:40 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  so a Montana win over Montana State likely makes the top seeds:

1) Sam Houston
2) NDSU
3) JMU
4 ) who cares

which means we go to the FargoDome in the semis.

Not sure its this straightforward, or a known outcome. Depends on how each committee member votes in the end.

Thought about it some, and NDSU likely has a slight edge on NCAA SRS/SOS calculation, but those numbers aren't published until after the bracket, so we don't know.

Our loss was also much closer in a game we statistically won outside of missed kicks. How in depth the committee looks at scores and stats I also don't know. We are ranked higher in polls, which I think can influence the committee some.

I could see JMU landing the 2 and NDSU the 3 seed. That would give us the long desired home game against them.

Feels like a coin flip to me.

The big one to me is the UD/Nova game. I don't like our odds of being seeded ahead of Nova if they claim the CAA title and head-to-head.

(11-18-2021 10:54 AM)JMU_71 Wrote:  No way Villanova goes ahead of us. Yeah, we lost to them by 1 point, but they got their rears handed to them by the Nerds and only have 9 FCS wins with a win over UD. We have 10 FCS wins after Saturday. If chalk happens this weekend:

1. SHSU
2. Montana St.
3. NDSU
4. JMU

For us to get the 2 seed, both MSU and NDSU have to lose, that could happen.

No argument with your position! Call me a homer, but I think JMU has the better resume over Villanova too. BUT this is the FCS Playoff Committee we're talking about!

It's a shame we won't be 11-0

The Committee uses an fittingly named system for evaluating team strength: the SIMPLE rating system. Never have been overly impressed with any committees that pick and seed for the playoffs- they'll just re-adjust the numbers to fit the narrative.

(11-18-2021 10:54 AM)JMU_71 Wrote:  No way Villanova goes ahead of us. Yeah, we lost to them by 1 point, but they got their rears handed to them by the Nerds and only have 9 FCS wins with a win over UD. We have 10 FCS wins after Saturday. If chalk happens this weekend:

1. SHSU
2. Montana St.
3. NDSU
4. JMU

For us to get the 2 seed, both MSU and NDSU have to lose, that could happen.

I disagree. The committee won’t reward JMU for Not playing a FBS game. Villanova beat JMU head to head and the only reason they have one less FCS win is they played one less FCS game which was replaced by Penn State.
I would be irate if JMU was in Villanova’s position and did not get the higher seed.

We’ll see. The committee is always subject to inconsistency in how they apply their published guidelines.
Maybe JMU would get some favoritism based on name brand recognition which would feel a little dirty, but we would gladly accept it along with the additional home game it provides.

(11-18-2021 10:57 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-18-2021 09:40 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  so a Montana win over Montana State likely makes the top seeds:

1) Sam Houston
2) NDSU
3) JMU
4 ) who cares

which means we go to the FargoDome in the semis.

Not sure its this straightforward, or a known outcome. Depends on how each committee member votes in the end.

Thought about it some, and NDSU likely has a slight edge on NCAA SRS/SOS calculation, but those numbers aren't published until after the bracket, so we don't know.

Our loss was also much closer in a game we statistically won outside of missed kicks. How in depth the committee looks at scores and stats I also don't know. We are ranked higher in polls, which I think can influence the committee some.

I could see JMU landing the 2 and NDSU the 3 seed. That would give us the long desired home game against them.

Feels like a coin flip to me.

The big one to me is the UD/Nova game. I don't like our odds of being seeded ahead of Nova if they claim the CAA title and head-to-head.

I know that. you know that. most of us on here know that.

but unfortunately, just like the SEC gets the benefit of the doubt in FBS, the MVC gets the benefit of the doubt in FCS.

the resume between us and NDSU will be about as equal as possible. So they will default to the "benefit of the doubt" and seed NDSU ahead of us.

I've watched NDSU games about 3-4 times this year. They have a very good defense. But that D is mostly stout against the run. We will be able to throw on them. And as bad as our run game is, their passing game on offense is horrendous. Neither one of their QB's can throw for a damn. Which again, is a good matchup for us because our weakness on D is the passing game.

I would not be scared AT ALL going to Fargo again. But i can totally see us getting hosed and being a 3 to their 2 should Montana St lose.

I think we still get seeded ahead of Nova. they won by 1 only because our AA kicker missed the only 2 kicks he's missed all year. The committee knows that. They won't penalize us as much for that as they will for Nova getting blasted by a W&M team we easily handled. And they lost at home to the Nerds while we beat them away.

Not sure how closely the committee looks at individual games. I agree Nova should be ranked ahead of us based on head to head at face value, but anyone looking objectively at our game against them would see that was a JMU loss vs a Nova win.

Different story with NDST's loss, they got handled by a team that has 2 FCS losses.

Mont St has no losses but a number of close wins including a Weber team we beat.

Our issue is overcoming a weak CAA schedule against teams that haven't done much against stiff OOC teams, and losses against Ivy League, Patriot and NEC teams.

Thank God we're done with this mess.

I agree with Hart that the committee probably won't punish Villanova for having an FBS game and losing it, but yeah that's probably our only hope of being seeded ahead of them assuming they win on Saturday. Every example I found of two one-FCS-loss teams where one had the head to head, they gave the head to head winner the higher seed.

I didn't find any examples where they didn't both play/lose equal FBS games though, not sure if there's been a true apples to apples for Villanova/JMU this year but there weren't any as far back as I went. So hopefully the extra win gives us the edge, but I don't think it will.

I also think Sammy probably gets more credit than usual for their undefeated season since they're defending champs. MVFC and Big Sky are better than the CAA this year so like I said in the other thread I think we'll be the 5 behind SHSU, Montana State, NDSU, Villanova if no one loses and might even be the 6 behind Sacramento State.

Seems like they always jump on any opportunity to seed others above us anyway, now we're on our way out and lacking quality wins so I really don't see them doing us any favors. Hope I'm wrong and/or some other teams help out on Saturday.

(11-18-2021 02:44 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  I think we'll be the 5 behind SHSU, Montana State, NDSU, Villanova if no one loses and might even be the 6 behind Sacramento State.

agreed. 5 is my guess if nothing changes. think we have some fans expecting (hoping?) for a top 2 seed which is possible but extremely unlikely imo. I think we're going to have some disappointed JMU fans, as usual

although.... #5 JMU @ #4 Villanova in a rematch game in the quarters? in a place where crowd noise is never an issue? sign me up for that. of course i'd rather it be at home but that is definitely a winnable game.

(11-18-2021 09:44 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  I hope we never go back to the Fargodome. Give me SHSU. Big Montana state fan here this weekend. Big USD fan too. Probably JMU's only shot at a 2 is if NDSU and Montana state go down, and even then Villanova could be seeded ahead of us.

Like Deez, I'd like a rematch at Soft (I mean Sam) Houston. Would love the opportunity to give KC Keeler his 1st home playoff loss since it didn't happen this past Spring.

Like many I think the committee will seed us #5 and we'll go to Villanova for a quarterfinal game and SHSU for the semis.

(11-18-2021 04:35 PM)JMU1987UVA1998 Wrote:  

(11-18-2021 09:44 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  I hope we never go back to the Fargodome. Give me SHSU. Big Montana state fan here this weekend. Big USD fan too. Probably JMU's only shot at a 2 is if NDSU and Montana state go down, and even then Villanova could be seeded ahead of us.

Like Deez, I'd like a rematch at Soft (I mean Sam) Houston. Would love the opportunity to give KC Keeler his 1st home playoff loss since it didn't happen this past Spring.

Like many I think the committee will seed us #5 and we'll go to Villanova for a quarterfinal game and SHSU for the semis.

If URI makes the field I have a feeling the winner of their first round game heads to JMU.

Beat Nova in the quarters, SHSU in the semis, NDSU for their first loss in Frisco then sail away from the FCS forever.

(11-18-2021 05:42 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-18-2021 04:35 PM)JMU1987UVA1998 Wrote:  

(11-18-2021 09:44 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  I hope we never go back to the Fargodome. Give me SHSU. Big Montana state fan here this weekend. Big USD fan too. Probably JMU's only shot at a 2 is if NDSU and Montana state go down, and even then Villanova could be seeded ahead of us.

Like Deez, I'd like a rematch at Soft (I mean Sam) Houston. Would love the opportunity to give KC Keeler his 1st home playoff loss since it didn't happen this past Spring.

Like many I think the committee will seed us #5 and we'll go to Villanova for a quarterfinal game and SHSU for the semis.

If URI makes the field I have a feeling the winner of their first round game heads to JMU.

Beat Nova in the quarters, SHSU in the semis, NDSU for their first loss in Frisco then sail away from the FCS forever.

URI against one of the Southern Conference teams makes sense in the 2nd Round.

NDSU sounds like it's a different team on the road. They might lose to Montana State in Bozeman. Better them than us.

In all reality if we were to clean things up and play our best football in the playoffs, I'd love a little revenge against Sam Houston and North Dakota State on our way to the Sun Belt.

Anyone else believe the chickens can whip Nova today? I do, which would give us the AQ and hopefully the 2 seed.

Nova lost to the garbage collectors 31-18. The chickens beat the garbage collectors 24-3. I know some of you ignore transitive property, but it is simply another metric to predict outcomes. Professional prognosticators use it routinely as one forecasting metric, among others. There are always circumstances, but these are not razor-thin margins of a point or two. W&M beat Nova by two touchdowns. UD beat W&M by three touchdowns. That is a 5-touchdown swing.

However, Delaware lost to Stony Brook and the ticks pretty bad. On the other hand, they held us to 22 points and were leading us at the half.

I guess it will depend on which Delaware team shows up. They are playing at home today, so I'm calling this game for the chickens

(11-20-2021 10:23 AM)Purple Wrote:  Anyone else believe the chickens can whip Nova today? I do, which would give us the AQ and hopefully the 2 seed.

Nova lost to the garbage collectors 31-18. The chickens beat the garbage collectors 24-3. I know some of you ignore transitive property, but it is simply another metric to predict outcomes. Professional prognosticators use it routinely as one forecasting metric, among others. There are always circumstances, but these are not razor-thin margins of a point or two. W&M beat Nova by two touchdowns. UD beat W&M by three touchdowns. That is a 5-touchdown swing.

However, Delaware lost to Stony Brook and the ticks pretty bad. On the other hand, they held us to 22 points and were leading us at the half.

I guess it will depend on which Delaware team shows up. They are playing at home today, so I'm calling this game for the chickens.

I thought Henderson was playing today, but there appears to be some doubt about that in Chickenville. So, l'm changing my prediction a bit. If Henderson plays today, the Chickens win. If not, Nova wins.