(11-17-2021 03:08 PM)Claw Wrote:  Elections are a year away. Look how much happened this year. It's way to early to start counting chickens.

Agreed. While some states have passed election integrity laws, where there's a will to cheat there's a way. And far too many still make it easy for 3 AM ballot dumps. Let's also remember that the election integrity laws that have been passed have come from predominantly red states, so they likely would have little impact on areas that are well known for corruption.

One reason they believe it could go up to 70 seats is because of this race in SC:

Republican Daniel Rickenmann, a businessman and Columbia city council member, defeated Democrat Tameika Isaac Devine 52% to 48% on Tuesday night in Columbia, which sits in a county that President Biden carried by almost 40 points in 2020
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-def...city-biden

The democrat was backed by Clyburn and endorsed by Obama. Its a county Biden* carried by 40 points. And the dems lost.

(11-17-2021 02:55 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Va is gonna serve as a pretty good model for ‘22.

Many had given up on the Commonwealth ever going R again, even though they held all three offices and the State house as “recently” as 2009-10. Not exactly a lifetime ago.

Several of us on here sorta thought this May well happen. I see the Va HoR members with a D next to their name running skeered already, there’s a decided shift afoot.

Just a reminder of historical Virginia state politics...

Political party strength in Virginia

Post Civil War
1866-1869: Gov (GOP), Senate (NP), House (NP)
1870-1873: Gov (GOP), Senate (Dem), House (Dem)
1874-1877: Gov (Dem), Senate (Dem), House (Dem)
1878-1881: Gov (Con), Senate (Dem), House (Dem)
1882-1885: Gov (Rea), Senate (Dem), House (Dem)
1886-1969: Gov (Dem), Senate (Dem), House (Dem)
1970-1981: Gov (GOP), Senate (Dem), House (Dem)
1982-1993: Gov (Dem), Senate (Dem), House (Dem)
1994-1995: Gov (GOP), Senate (Dem), House (Dem)
1996-1999: Gov (GOP), Senate (GOP), House (Dem)
2000-2001: Gov (GOP), Senate (GOP), House (GOP)
2002-2007: Gov (Dem), Senate (GOP), House (GOP)
2008-2009: Gov (Dem), Senate (Dem), House (GOP)
2010-2011: Gov (GOP), Senate (Dem), House (GOP)
2012-2013: Gov (GOP), Senate (GOP), House (GOP)
2014-2019: Gov (Dem), Senate (GOP), House (GOP)
2020-2021: Gov (Dem), Senate (Dem), House (Dem)
2022-??: Gov (GOP elect), Senate (Dem), House (GOP elect)


156 years Post-Civil War
Dem Control - 102 years (65.4%)
Split - 50 years (32.0%)*
GOP Control - 4 years (2.6%)

* During the years 1878-1885 the governors were from the Conservative Democrat Party and the Readjuster Party. Both men were veterans of the Confederate Army.

During the past 156 years Republicans have only had majority control in state government for 4 years total. You can essentially say Virginia has not yet been run by Republican policies. Even with the victories that will go into effect in 2022 the Senate will still be controlled by Democrats.

(11-17-2021 10:17 AM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opini...eat-pickup

"...Newt Gingrich, who rode an earlier GOP wave to the House speakership in 1994, has been bullish on the chances Republicans would take back control of the chamber. He just upped his prediction to a GOP gain of 40-70 seats. That would top the 63-seat gain by Republicans in 2010, the height of the Tea Party movement and the highest for both parties since 1948...."

Sounds pretty optomistic. With Democratic gerrymanders in their states and solid D inner cities in Republican states, its hard to find 282 seats that could go Republican. But if its even a 35 seat gain, it would be the biggest Republican majority since before the Great Depression. If so, well, we can say, "Thank you Joe!"

Ohio is about to net a +3 to GOP in the next election with the "bipartisan election map" that is going through the state house right now. I don't really align with either side and think there a metric fuckton of idiots in both, but it is shiesty as **** when either party decides to turn a state that went 54/46 into a 13-2 majority in house districts (and yes, it is shiesty as **** when that happens in Democratic led states too).

I still think you should divvy up House seats by voter share and have individuals selected out of a pool after the fact. Say a state goes 60-40 Republican in a presidential election and they have 10 House seats. There should essentially be a "primary" after that where individuals are able to choose the 6 Republican State Reps and 4 Democratic state reps based on their political affiliation. Purest form of representative democracy if you ask me.

(11-17-2021 04:44 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  One reason they believe it could go up to 70 seats is because of this race in SC:

Republican Daniel Rickenmann, a businessman and Columbia city council member, defeated Democrat Tameika Isaac Devine 52% to 48% on Tuesday night in Columbia, which sits in a county that President Biden carried by almost 40 points in 2020
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-def...city-biden

The democrat was backed by Clyburn and endorsed by Obama. Its a county Biden* carried by 40 points. And the dems lost.

That right there is as clear a sign as any of complete voter apathy in mid-term elections, which is highly likely given national turnout running at about half what it does in presidential years. Contributing factor to that could be a whole lot of things (Presidential Shithousery, people not wanting to go to the polls or not realizing there was an election which is sadly far more likely than you might think, or absentee voter programs being drawn back in).

(11-17-2021 05:06 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 04:44 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  One reason they believe it could go up to 70 seats is because of this race in SC:

Republican Daniel Rickenmann, a businessman and Columbia city council member, defeated Democrat Tameika Isaac Devine 52% to 48% on Tuesday night in Columbia, which sits in a county that President Biden carried by almost 40 points in 2020
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-def...city-biden

The democrat was backed by Clyburn and endorsed by Obama. Its a county Biden* carried by 40 points. And the dems lost.

That right there is as clear a sign as any of complete voter apathy in mid-term elections, which is highly likely given national turnout running at about half what it does in presidential years. Contributing factor to that could be a whole lot of things (Presidential Shithousery, people not wanting to go to the polls or not realizing there was an election which is sadly far more likely than you might think, or absentee voter programs being drawn back in). where/how dems cheated w/o repercussion under the gay-dar

payback fify

(11-17-2021 12:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  With this idiot in the White House----anything is possible including Democrats losing "safe" seats. That said, 70 seats seems like a long shot. I absolutely do expect Republicans to handily capture both the House and Senate.

Logic would seem to favor what you are thinking…….unless the big cheat is in play again. Then - who knows.

Additionally, probably at least 1/2 of the voting age public don’t remember much behind a couple of weeks, a month max. What the country is experiencing now could be long forgotten by next year unless we continue unabated down the toilet until next November (and that’s very possible.)

(11-17-2021 06:16 PM)Crebman Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 12:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  With this idiot in the White House----anything is possible including Democrats losing "safe" seats. That said, 70 seats seems like a long shot. I absolutely do expect Republicans to handily capture both the House and Senate.

Logic would seem to favor what you are thinking…….unless the big cheat is in play again. Then - who knows.

Additionally, probably at least 1/2 of the voting age public don’t remember much behind a couple of weeks, a month max. What the country is experiencing now could be long forgotten by next year unless we continue unabated down the toilet until next November (and that’s very possible.)

E) all the above is in play