Well, if UTA really is going to join the MVC, that leaves a gap between them and the rest of the league. How about adding Oral Roberts to act as a bridge?

(11-17-2021 01:23 AM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 10:42 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  This is a gamble for Loyola because of the higher level of competition they will be playing in the A10.

Its not like they were exhibiting the strength of Butler for 20 years prior to the A10 bid.

(11-17-2021 12:28 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  Loyola has had 2 good teams in 35 years and goes vast stretches without fielding quality teams. It's a gamble by the A-10, they could wind up with another doormat like Duquesne or Fordham.

The amount of investment Loyola has made in athletics in the last decade has been significant. New practice facility, remodel and upgrade of basically everything.

And, BTW, just like Watson was at Dayton, then rebuilt Bona as AD, then Loyola as AD.... Watson worked at UD with Dave Harper, who's now the AD of Duquesne.

They have been a loyal A-10 soldier the last few years, winning OOC games despite their conference standing and helping the league, AND they just finished two years of nomadic "home games" at Robert Morris and other Pittsburgh venues while completely rebuilding their home arena from the ground up.

Duquesne is investing like Loyola did. Hopefully, we're getting two new good teams in Loyola and a resurrected Duquesne soon.

I think Loyola is a good move for the A10. Cuts the head off the MVC, gets them into the Chicago market, regionalizes competition for Saint Louis and Dayton. I would have liked Loyola and St. Louis for the MAC if they would allow non-FB schools.

A10 though is a two tier kind of conference and if you get stuck in the second division its really hard to claw your way out. UMass is an example situation. You don't get any money hardly at all in the A10 unless you make the NCAAs. That is the longer term risk Loyola is taking with this move.

(11-17-2021 12:51 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 07:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 07:39 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 07:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Wait a couple years and then add Murray St and Bellarmine. Then you’re public/football vs private/non-football balance stays in place.

I get it in a vacuum, but as I’ve noted in other discussions over the past few months, that’s simply not how conferences are approaching this round of realignment. There are a lot more aggressive “do it now” moves and leagues are being much more about long-term strategy as opposed to maximizing short-term dollars. Even totally content leagues like the MAC took a swing at adding schools.

It wouldn’t shock me if the MVC jumped up to 14 schools.

Going past 10 or 12 is a poor decision for 1 bid leagues. I think Murray St helps them stay an occasional 2 bid league. Bellarmine intrigues me because they are a football first (and only school) and I think their profile is in line with the likes of Drake, Valpo, Belmont, Bradley, and Evansville.

Depends on what your priorities are.

If you want to cut down travel costs adding a few more can do that for you. Look at what Sun Belt has done creating one very tight division and one pretty tight division

What’s interesting is that it’s clear that the MVC isn’t looking to cut down travel costs at all with the schools that they’re looking at. A key point from Matt Brown’s post is that the MVC private schools straight up want large market schools and that’s why UT-Arlington has been the top of the list for them at this point.

One global issue in higher education is that non-elite private schools are the ones facing the greatest enrollment challenges of them all. They’re also at enrollment sizes where just a small change in the number of students attending can have a significant impact on those schools’ finances.

When looking at it through that lens, the goals of expansion for the MVC private school presidents become much clearer. It’s not really a private vs. public balance that they’re thinking about that we often talk about here with respect to the MVC. Instead, it’s a large market vs. small market focus for expansion. That’s not unusual at all in conference realignment since market size is a driving force in a lot of these decisions.

However, the MVC private school presidents aren’t looking at markets with respect to TV deals or even sports recruiting. Instead, this is all about raising brand awareness in the largest markets possible for “regular student” recruiting.

Remember that Drake, Evansville and Valpo enroll fewer than 1000 students per freshman class and Bradley is only just above that figure. For any of these schools, just getting 10 more tuition-paying students per year from the Dallas area that they otherwise wouldn’t have ever gotten otherwise is HUGE for them. With private school prices, that’s a couple of million more dollars in revenue over 4 years of college… and that’s just with 10 new students. Even just 5 new freshmen per year means around a million dollars in school revenue over 4 years. Just 5-10 more students can change the revenue picture for an entire school by 1-2%, which might not seem like a lot, but that can be the difference between stability versus losing money for these smaller schools in the short-term and the impact of a small increase in enrollment each year can compound itself in a positive way over the long-term.

So, thinking like a university president at an MVC private school, if adding UT-Arlington raises the brand awareness of my school in a Dallas market just enough where my school gets merely a handful of tuition-paying students from that area each year, then I am motivated to add them and don’t care if they never win a single conference game in basketball. That additional handful of students legitimately has more long-term financial impact to these MVC private schools than finding a school that would garner regular at-large bids in the NCAA Tournament.

With all of that in mind, the MVC attraction to UT-Arlington and Kansas City makes a lot more sense and, if anything, it’s Murray State that would be on the chopping block if the MVC only expands by 2. Plus, if the MVC private schools with decent brand names are thinking this way as members of a solid on-the-court basketball league, imagine how even lesser brand name private schools in lesser leagues are thinking right now.

It goes to show that markets continue to matter in conference realignment even for the lower level leagues even if it’s not about TV money.

(11-17-2021 10:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 12:51 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 07:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 07:39 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 07:27 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Wait a couple years and then add Murray St and Bellarmine. Then you’re public/football vs private/non-football balance stays in place.

I get it in a vacuum, but as I’ve noted in other discussions over the past few months, that’s simply not how conferences are approaching this round of realignment. There are a lot more aggressive “do it now” moves and leagues are being much more about long-term strategy as opposed to maximizing short-term dollars. Even totally content leagues like the MAC took a swing at adding schools.

It wouldn’t shock me if the MVC jumped up to 14 schools.

Going past 10 or 12 is a poor decision for 1 bid leagues. I think Murray St helps them stay an occasional 2 bid league. Bellarmine intrigues me because they are a football first (and only school) and I think their profile is in line with the likes of Drake, Valpo, Belmont, Bradley, and Evansville.

Depends on what your priorities are.

If you want to cut down travel costs adding a few more can do that for you. Look at what Sun Belt has done creating one very tight division and one pretty tight division

What’s interesting is that it’s clear that the MVC isn’t looking to cut down travel costs at all with the schools that they’re looking at. A key point from Matt Brown’s post is that the MVC private schools straight up want large market schools and that’s why UT-Arlington has been the top of the list for them at this point.

One global issue in higher education is that non-elite private schools are the ones facing the greatest enrollment challenges of them all. They’re also at enrollment sizes where just a small change in the number of students attending can have a significant impact on those schools’ finances.

When looking at it through that lens, the goals of expansion for the MVC private school presidents become much clearer. It’s not really a private vs. public balance that they’re thinking about that we often talk about here with respect to the MVC. Instead, it’s a large market vs. small market focus for expansion. That’s not unusual at all in conference realignment since market size is a driving force in a lot of these decisions.

However, the MVC private school presidents aren’t looking at markets with respect to TV deals or even sports recruiting. Instead, this is all about raising brand awareness in the largest markets possible for “regular student” recruiting.

Remember that Drake, Evansville and Valpo enroll fewer than 1000 students per freshman class and Bradley is only just above that figure. For any of these schools, just getting 10 more tuition-paying students per year from the Dallas area that they otherwise wouldn’t have ever gotten otherwise is HUGE for them. With private school prices, that’s a couple of million more dollars in revenue over 4 years of college… and that’s just with 10 new students. Even just 5 new freshmen per year means around a million dollars in school revenue over 4 years. Just 5-10 more students can change the revenue picture for an entire school by 1-2%, which might not seem like a lot, but that can be the difference between stability versus losing money for these smaller schools in the short-term and the impact of a small increase in enrollment each year can compound itself in a positive way over the long-term.

So, thinking like a university president at an MVC private school, if adding UT-Arlington raises the brand awareness of my school in a Dallas market just enough where my school gets merely a handful of tuition-paying students from that area each year, then I am motivated to add them and don’t care if they never win a single conference game in basketball. That additional handful of students legitimately has more long-term financial impact to these MVC private schools than finding a school that would garner regular at-large bids in the NCAA Tournament.

With all of that in mind, the MVC attraction to UT-Arlington and Kansas City makes a lot more sense and, if anything, it’s Murray State that would be on the chopping block if the MVC only expands by 2. Plus, if the MVC private schools with decent brand names are thinking this way as members of a solid on-the-court basketball league, imagine how even lesser brand name private schools in lesser leagues are thinking right now.

It goes to show that markets continue to matter in conference realignment even for the lower level leagues even if it’s not about TV money.

Frank, do you think the MVC would ever venture east?

If UTA is an option to get Texas exposure why not Hofstra/Northeastern/Drexel for NYC/Boston/Philly exposure?

Thw MVC, under previous leadership, kicked the tires on Northeastern and Grand Canyon for exactly the reason, but it never really progressed anywhere.

I don’t really buy adding UTA is going to increase enrollment at MVC schools. Dallas area high school students want to go to Illinois state ? I would add Illinois - Chicago and university of st Thomas, think they have the best upside of anybody and profile

I hope we don't add either. I would rather have Northeastern than either if we're going to open our footprint a crazy amount.

(11-17-2021 10:25 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 10:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 12:51 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 07:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 07:39 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I get it in a vacuum, but as I’ve noted in other discussions over the past few months, that’s simply not how conferences are approaching this round of realignment. There are a lot more aggressive “do it now” moves and leagues are being much more about long-term strategy as opposed to maximizing short-term dollars. Even totally content leagues like the MAC took a swing at adding schools.

It wouldn’t shock me if the MVC jumped up to 14 schools.

Going past 10 or 12 is a poor decision for 1 bid leagues. I think Murray St helps them stay an occasional 2 bid league. Bellarmine intrigues me because they are a football first (and only school) and I think their profile is in line with the likes of Drake, Valpo, Belmont, Bradley, and Evansville.

Depends on what your priorities are.

If you want to cut down travel costs adding a few more can do that for you. Look at what Sun Belt has done creating one very tight division and one pretty tight division

What’s interesting is that it’s clear that the MVC isn’t looking to cut down travel costs at all with the schools that they’re looking at. A key point from Matt Brown’s post is that the MVC private schools straight up want large market schools and that’s why UT-Arlington has been the top of the list for them at this point.

One global issue in higher education is that non-elite private schools are the ones facing the greatest enrollment challenges of them all. They’re also at enrollment sizes where just a small change in the number of students attending can have a significant impact on those schools’ finances.

When looking at it through that lens, the goals of expansion for the MVC private school presidents become much clearer. It’s not really a private vs. public balance that they’re thinking about that we often talk about here with respect to the MVC. Instead, it’s a large market vs. small market focus for expansion. That’s not unusual at all in conference realignment since market size is a driving force in a lot of these decisions.

However, the MVC private school presidents aren’t looking at markets with respect to TV deals or even sports recruiting. Instead, this is all about raising brand awareness in the largest markets possible for “regular student” recruiting.

Remember that Drake, Evansville and Valpo enroll fewer than 1000 students per freshman class and Bradley is only just above that figure. For any of these schools, just getting 10 more tuition-paying students per year from the Dallas area that they otherwise wouldn’t have ever gotten otherwise is HUGE for them. With private school prices, that’s a couple of million more dollars in revenue over 4 years of college… and that’s just with 10 new students. Even just 5 new freshmen per year means around a million dollars in school revenue over 4 years. Just 5-10 more students can change the revenue picture for an entire school by 1-2%, which might not seem like a lot, but that can be the difference between stability versus losing money for these smaller schools in the short-term and the impact of a small increase in enrollment each year can compound itself in a positive way over the long-term.

So, thinking like a university president at an MVC private school, if adding UT-Arlington raises the brand awareness of my school in a Dallas market just enough where my school gets merely a handful of tuition-paying students from that area each year, then I am motivated to add them and don’t care if they never win a single conference game in basketball. That additional handful of students legitimately has more long-term financial impact to these MVC private schools than finding a school that would garner regular at-large bids in the NCAA Tournament.

With all of that in mind, the MVC attraction to UT-Arlington and Kansas City makes a lot more sense and, if anything, it’s Murray State that would be on the chopping block if the MVC only expands by 2. Plus, if the MVC private schools with decent brand names are thinking this way as members of a solid on-the-court basketball league, imagine how even lesser brand name private schools in lesser leagues are thinking right now.

It goes to show that markets continue to matter in conference realignment even for the lower level leagues even if it’s not about TV money.

Frank, do you think the MVC would ever venture east?

If UTA is an option to get Texas exposure why not Hofstra/Northeastern/Drexel for NYC/Boston/Philly exposure?

As a Drake alum, it recruits east, not south. Outside of Iowa, most students come from NY and Chicago. It sure seemed like there were more kids from Milwaukee than KC. Adding Dallas to the conference really doesn't help recruiting or alumni contact, at least not for Drake or the other privates like Bradley, Valpo or Evansville. Big city Texas kids are not going to school in mid-sized midwest towns.

It seems to me, the Valley would be much better off looking to the north and east for new members. However, the available schools have limited appeal. UWM, UIC, etc have no fans and are after thoughts in their markets. Say what you want, but most of the Valley schools historically have had strong fan support. There are very few upwardly trending schools in the north and east. To be honest, the Valley needs an up and coming school like Grand Canyon (which is unfortunately outside their geographic area). Growing by leaps and bounds. Sold out their arena (7,000+) before the season started. Incredible facilities. Major metro area. It would be a great fit, if it were not for the location.

As for Loyola, they have had a nice run. That said, going to the A-10 will be a mistake. Financially, I can't imagine it will be a win. Even if they get a few extra bucks from tv, the cost to fly their Olympic sport teams will offset the increase in revenue. Further, this isn't the A-10 of 10 years ago. It is watered down, 1-3 bid league. Chances of Loyola slipping back into oblivion are pretty good. The Valley gave them a chance to compete every once in a while. Now, you simply become another Fordham, LaSalle, Duquense, etc. If I were the one of the top teams in the A-10, I would leave the dead weight behind and form a leaner, more competitive conference.

BTW, it seems to me the Valley is underestimated. They have had pretty good success in the tourney. Historically, even going back to the days of Creighton and WSU, the Valley champ has done well in the NCAAs. Yes, you don't get a lot of publicity in the Valley and you don't earn a lot of tv revenue. But, from a basketball perspective, it is a strong league with strong fanbases.

(11-17-2021 11:20 AM)bluesox Wrote:  I don’t really buy adding UTA is going to increase enrollment at MVC schools. Dallas area high school students want to go to Illinois state ? I would add Illinois - Chicago and university of st Thomas, think they have the best upside of anybody and profile

It's not really a large public school like Illinois State that's concerned about out-of-state enrollment (although I'm sure that they'd welcome it).

Instead, it's places like Drake and Evansville. Those are the ones where even just a handful of extra students per year make a material impact on a school's financial situation.

Now, can you point a direct line to "UTA joined the MVC and now we got a bunch of students from Dallas?" That's generally not the case. Instead, it's about each additional piece of brand awareness - the mention of UTA playing Drake on the local Dallas news, pulling up the MVC standings and seeing Drake's name on there, knowing one high school classmate who takes a scholarship to Drake and likes it and that builds positive word of mouth at that high school, etc. It's not a direct line between conference membership and new students, but rather the building up of brand awareness over time.

Remember that the vast majority of people aren't like the ones on this forum where we're hyper-aware of these small schools and where they're located. IRL, these are schools where simply getting people to be aware of their existence in and of itself is a critical step to survival. Every mention in the Dallas media (or Chicago or KC media or anywhere else) is like an additional advertisement for these schools in a key market. The thing is that they don't need to even convert many of these prospective students into tuition-paying enrolled students to make the whole exercise worthwhile - it only takes a few.

(11-17-2021 11:40 AM)MU88 Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 10:25 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 10:13 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 12:51 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-16-2021 07:45 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Going past 10 or 12 is a poor decision for 1 bid leagues. I think Murray St helps them stay an occasional 2 bid league. Bellarmine intrigues me because they are a football first (and only school) and I think their profile is in line with the likes of Drake, Valpo, Belmont, Bradley, and Evansville.

Depends on what your priorities are.

If you want to cut down travel costs adding a few more can do that for you. Look at what Sun Belt has done creating one very tight division and one pretty tight division

What’s interesting is that it’s clear that the MVC isn’t looking to cut down travel costs at all with the schools that they’re looking at. A key point from Matt Brown’s post is that the MVC private schools straight up want large market schools and that’s why UT-Arlington has been the top of the list for them at this point.

One global issue in higher education is that non-elite private schools are the ones facing the greatest enrollment challenges of them all. They’re also at enrollment sizes where just a small change in the number of students attending can have a significant impact on those schools’ finances.

When looking at it through that lens, the goals of expansion for the MVC private school presidents become much clearer. It’s not really a private vs. public balance that they’re thinking about that we often talk about here with respect to the MVC. Instead, it’s a large market vs. small market focus for expansion. That’s not unusual at all in conference realignment since market size is a driving force in a lot of these decisions.

However, the MVC private school presidents aren’t looking at markets with respect to TV deals or even sports recruiting. Instead, this is all about raising brand awareness in the largest markets possible for “regular student” recruiting.

Remember that Drake, Evansville and Valpo enroll fewer than 1000 students per freshman class and Bradley is only just above that figure. For any of these schools, just getting 10 more tuition-paying students per year from the Dallas area that they otherwise wouldn’t have ever gotten otherwise is HUGE for them. With private school prices, that’s a couple of million more dollars in revenue over 4 years of college… and that’s just with 10 new students. Even just 5 new freshmen per year means around a million dollars in school revenue over 4 years. Just 5-10 more students can change the revenue picture for an entire school by 1-2%, which might not seem like a lot, but that can be the difference between stability versus losing money for these smaller schools in the short-term and the impact of a small increase in enrollment each year can compound itself in a positive way over the long-term.

So, thinking like a university president at an MVC private school, if adding UT-Arlington raises the brand awareness of my school in a Dallas market just enough where my school gets merely a handful of tuition-paying students from that area each year, then I am motivated to add them and don’t care if they never win a single conference game in basketball. That additional handful of students legitimately has more long-term financial impact to these MVC private schools than finding a school that would garner regular at-large bids in the NCAA Tournament.

With all of that in mind, the MVC attraction to UT-Arlington and Kansas City makes a lot more sense and, if anything, it’s Murray State that would be on the chopping block if the MVC only expands by 2. Plus, if the MVC private schools with decent brand names are thinking this way as members of a solid on-the-court basketball league, imagine how even lesser brand name private schools in lesser leagues are thinking right now.

It goes to show that markets continue to matter in conference realignment even for the lower level leagues even if it’s not about TV money.

Frank, do you think the MVC would ever venture east?

If UTA is an option to get Texas exposure why not Hofstra/Northeastern/Drexel for NYC/Boston/Philly exposure?

As a Drake alum, it recruits east, not south. Outside of Iowa, most students come from NY and Chicago. It sure seemed like there were more kids from Milwaukee than KC. Adding Dallas to the conference really doesn't help recruiting or alumni contact, at least not for Drake or the other privates like Bradley, Valpo or Evansville. Big city Texas kids are not going to school in mid-sized midwest towns.

It seems to me, the Valley would be much better off looking to the north and east for new members. However, the available schools have limited appeal. UWM, UIC, etc have no fans and are after thoughts in their markets. Say what you want, but most of the Valley schools historically have had strong fan support. There are very few upwardly trending schools in the north and east. To be honest, the Valley needs an up and coming school like Grand Canyon (which is unfortunately outside their geographic area). Growing by leaps and bounds. Sold out their arena (7,000+) before the season started. Incredible facilities. Major metro area. It would be a great fit, if it were not for the location.

As for Loyola, they have had a nice run. That said, going to the A-10 will be a mistake. Financially, I can't imagine it will be a win. Even if they get a few extra bucks from tv, the cost to fly their Olympic sport teams will offset the increase in revenue. Further, this isn't the A-10 of 10 years ago. It is watered down, 1-3 bid league. Chances of Loyola slipping back into oblivion are pretty good. The Valley gave them a chance to compete every once in a while. Now, you simply become another Fordham, LaSalle, Duquense, etc. If I were the one of the top teams in the A-10, I would leave the dead weight behind and form a leaner, more competitive conference.

BTW, it seems to me the Valley is underestimated. They have had pretty good success in the tourney. Historically, even going back to the days of Creighton and WSU, the Valley champ has done well in the NCAAs. Yes, you don't get a lot of publicity in the Valley and you don't earn a lot of tv revenue. But, from a basketball perspective, it is a strong league with strong fanbases.

I agree that this is true with Drake that it traditionally looks toward Chicago and Eastward for students - I know quite a few people that attended that school.

However, the long-term issue is that the population of college-aged students is falling every year in the Midwest and Northeast, so schools like Drake can no longer rely upon those regions as a source of students if they want to keep their enrollment numbers stable. The future growth of college-aged students is all in the major markets in Texas, Southeast (hence the attraction of Belmont to the MVC regardless of on-the-court credentials), and Interior West (e.g. Denver, Phoenix).

I live in Naperville (a suburb west of Chicago), which from the 1970s through 2000 was one of the fastest-growing towns in the country and specifically known as a draw for its public schools. Due to the strength of the public schools, demographic profile and relatively large size, this is also one of the most heavily recruited towns in the country by colleges for prospective students, particularly any school in the Midwest. It wouldn't surprise me if there were more Naperville students at Drake than the entire City of Chicago itself despite Naperville having 1/15th of the population.

As of right now, we've been heavily reviewing our public school enrollment projections in order to adjust currently imbalanced school boundaries and the reality is that even in our town, the high school age population had already peaked 10 years ago and it's going to go into a steeper decline over the next 10 years. This is happening in every Chicago suburb and it's even worse in other places in the Midwest. It's also happening in the New York suburbs and elsewhere in the Northeast.

Drake and every other Midwestern private school knows these demographic numbers: their home base of students is evaporating and they're facing increased competition from much more well-resourced schools (such as the Big Ten schools) in competing for that smaller home base on top of it. These private schools HAVE to get students from places like Texas and other places where there is still growth in future high school graduates for the long-term. This isn't a choice.

(11-17-2021 01:52 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Here is my thoughts. I do think MVC will lose three of their football public schools soon, or they think they are losing them.

Missouri State to CUSA
Illinois State to the MAC with WKU or CUSA
Northern Iowa been hinting they wanted to go FBS in the past.

MVC knows more than what we do know on who else is leaving the conference. If you noticed? Murray State got pushed behind other public schools, and Missouri State is not happy. If they leave? Than Murray State will be stuck in OVC or they go to the ASUN.

UNI and Ill State are not going anywhere. Missouri State will likely move if the offer is in hand. Bigger question, if Murray moves to the MVC where do they put FB? Not real sure the non-MVC members of the MVFC are interested in adding Murray State and I doubt UNI are interested in divisions based on that they would be placed in the western half of the league.

(11-17-2021 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  ... the high school age population had already peaked 10 years ago and it's going to go into a steeper decline over the next 10 years. This is happening in every Chicago suburb and it's even worse in other places in the Midwest. It's also happening in the New York suburbs and elsewhere in the Northeast.

Drake and every other Midwestern private school knows these demographic numbers: their home base of students is evaporating and they're facing increased competition
... These private schools HAVE to get students from places like Texas and other places where there is still growth in future high school graduates for the long-term. This isn't a choice.

The 2026 cliff is coming ... fast.

https://www.cupahr.org/issue/feature/hig...ent-cliff/

https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-l...ncy-change

(11-17-2021 11:51 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Now, can you point a direct line to "UTA joined the MVC and now we got a bunch of students from Dallas?" That's generally not the case. Instead, it's about each additional piece of brand awareness - the mention of UTA playing Drake on the local Dallas news, pulling up the MVC standings and seeing Drake's name on there, knowing one high school classmate who takes a scholarship to Drake and likes it and that builds positive word of mouth at that high school, etc. It's not a direct line between conference membership and new students, but rather the building up of brand awareness over time.

UTA gets no mentions in local press or TV. SMU games are broadcast on the local all-sports radio station and they can't even get the hosts to talk about them.

The coverage tiers are fairly unchanged:
Tier 1: 60% of coverage
1. Cowboys
2. Rangers/Mavericks/Stars
----------------
Tier 2: 25% of coverage
3. Texas/Texas A&M/Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor
------------------
Tier 3: 12-15% of coverage
5. SMU
6. High schools
7. North Texas
------------------
Tier 4: 0-3% of coverage
8. UTA, WNBA, minor league baseball
9. Univ. of Dallas, Dallas Baptist, Texas Wesleyan, UT-Dallas

The decision to drop football effectively consigned UTA to the bottom tier--no TV, minimal newspaper coverage.

(11-17-2021 12:32 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 11:51 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Now, can you point a direct line to "UTA joined the MVC and now we got a bunch of students from Dallas?" That's generally not the case. Instead, it's about each additional piece of brand awareness - the mention of UTA playing Drake on the local Dallas news, pulling up the MVC standings and seeing Drake's name on there, knowing one high school classmate who takes a scholarship to Drake and likes it and that builds positive word of mouth at that high school, etc. It's not a direct line between conference membership and new students, but rather the building up of brand awareness over time.

UTA gets no mentions in local press or TV. SMU games are broadcast on the local all-sports radio station and they can't even get the hosts to talk about them.

The coverage tiers are fairly unchanged:
Tier 1: 60% of coverage
1. Cowboys
2. Rangers/Mavericks/Stars
----------------
Tier 2: 25% of coverage
3. Texas/Texas A&M/Oklahoma
4. Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor
------------------
Tier 3: 12-15% of coverage
5. SMU
6. High schools
7. North Texas
------------------
Tier 4: 0-3% of coverage
8. UTA, WNBA, minor league baseball
9. Univ. of Dallas, Dallas Baptist, Texas Wesleyan, UT-Dallas

The decision to drop football effectively consigned UTA to the bottom tier--no TV, minimal newspaper coverage.

No doubt that UTA has little local media coverage. However, the important point is in The Sicotaka's post right before yours: the enrollment cliff is coming within the next 5 years and that was an issue even *before* the pandemic. The drop in the birthrate due to the pandemic is going to hit even harder when we're looking at the next 15-20 years.

The point is that these small Midwestern and Northeastern private schools that aren't elite (e.g. not the Ivy League or Georgetown) *have* to recruit places like Texas to survive going forward. No one should think that MVC expansion into those areas is going to be a panacea, but it's one piece of the overall puzzle to address a known enrollment challenge that is coming quickly (and in many cases, already exists).

(11-17-2021 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Drake and every other Midwestern private school knows these demographic numbers: their home base of students is evaporating and they're facing increased competition from much more well-resourced schools (such as the Big Ten schools) in competing for that smaller home base on top of it. These private schools HAVE to get students from places like Texas and other places where there is still growth in future high school graduates for the long-term. This isn't a choice.

I don't think it is going to happen. Why? Drake got students from NY and Chicago because the cost of tuition in Des Moines for a comparable education was much, much cheaper than in NYC. I took a quick look at a couple schools out east which, to me, are somewhat similar to Drake. For example, the list price for going to Drake is about $7,000 cheaper than going to Manhattan College. Its $5,000-$6,000 cheaper than Sacred Heart. The cost for difference for a school like the University of Dallas is much smaller, maybe $1500. Same goes for Tulsa, a former Valley school. People are flocking to the south because it is inexpensive, relative to the west and east coasts. Unless you are going to save a decent amount of cash, what is the attraction for a southerner to attend a school in a hicksville, midwest town.

If recruiting is the goal, Drake needs to continue to concentrate on the east coast with new emphasis on the west coast, where the cost of living and tuition is higher than the midwest. A school like Santa Clara is $15,000 more than Drake. Pacific is $6,000 more. Bradley is $10,000 cheaper than Drake. Pitching their school to parents in California has huge potential. Great education at a low price. Price matters. Maybe Denver would be a good add. Tuition at a Colorado schools have jumped through the roof. Could be a good opportunity for midwest schools to undercut them on price.

(11-17-2021 12:50 PM)MU88 Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Drake and every other Midwestern private school knows these demographic numbers: their home base of students is evaporating and they're facing increased competition from much more well-resourced schools (such as the Big Ten schools) in competing for that smaller home base on top of it. These private schools HAVE to get students from places like Texas and other places where there is still growth in future high school graduates for the long-term. This isn't a choice.

I don't think it is going to happen. Why? Drake got students from NY and Chicago because the cost of tuition in Des Moines for a comparable education was much, much cheaper than in NYC. I took a quick look at a couple schools out east which, to me, are somewhat similar to Drake. For example, the list price for going to Drake is about $7,000 cheaper than going to Manhattan College. Its $5,000-$6,000 cheaper than Sacred Heart. The cost for difference for a school like the University of Dallas is much smaller, maybe $1500. Same goes for Tulsa, a former Valley school. People are flocking to the south because it is inexpensive, relative to the west and east coasts. Unless you are going to save a decent amount of cash, what is the attraction for a southerner to attend a school in a hicksville, midwest town.

If recruiting is the goal, Drake needs to continue to concentrate on the east coast with new emphasis on the west coast, where the cost of living and tuition is higher than the midwest. A school like Santa Clara is $15,000 more than Drake. Pacific is $6,000 more. Bradley is $10,000 cheaper than Drake. Pitching their school to parents in California has huge potential. Great education at a low price. Price matters. Maybe Denver would be a good add. Tuition at a Colorado schools have jumped through the roof. Could be a good opportunity for midwest schools to undercut them on price.

There's a give and take, though, because there's also a lot more private school competition on the East Coast. I don't think Drake's competition is really Manhattan College as a school that's in or around a major metro area. Kids that want to go to those types of schools are going to pay that premium for location. Instead, it's really schools like St. Bonaventure (to use an A-10 example) that Drake is competing with and are going to engage in heavy tuition discounting for target students in order to be price competitive. There are LOTS of private schools like that on the East Coast even more so than the Midwest.

In contrast, there aren't as many of those types of private schools in the South by comparison. Drake's draw can't be just price because if that's what matters, then everyone would simply go to a local in-state public university. Instead, it needs to be a reasonable price for a high engagement private school experience. That's what Drake can sell to someone in Dallas that actually isn't that easy to find in Texas.

I agree that it would be great if Drake could draw more California students, but that state is much more similar to the East Coast and Midwest in terms of a greater saturation of local private school competition. Santa Clara is #55 in the US News Rankings in the middle of Silicon Valley - they're going to draw students that aren't as price sensitive (think the typical Villanova or Syracuse student).

Whether a Southern-focused recruitment target will work for Drake or any other MVC school is an open question. However, it's simply too large of a market to ignore - it's the one area that has a growing product (high school students that want to go to college) that is otherwise declining everywhere else. My belief is that these schools HAVE to try and I don't think that I'm alone considering that UTA is apparently the #1 expansion choice for the MVC private schools.

(11-17-2021 01:10 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 12:50 PM)MU88 Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Drake and every other Midwestern private school knows these demographic numbers: their home base of students is evaporating and they're facing increased competition from much more well-resourced schools (such as the Big Ten schools) in competing for that smaller home base on top of it. These private schools HAVE to get students from places like Texas and other places where there is still growth in future high school graduates for the long-term. This isn't a choice.

I don't think it is going to happen. Why? Drake got students from NY and Chicago because the cost of tuition in Des Moines for a comparable education was much, much cheaper than in NYC. I took a quick look at a couple schools out east which, to me, are somewhat similar to Drake. For example, the list price for going to Drake is about $7,000 cheaper than going to Manhattan College. Its $5,000-$6,000 cheaper than Sacred Heart. The cost for difference for a school like the University of Dallas is much smaller, maybe $1500. Same goes for Tulsa, a former Valley school. People are flocking to the south because it is inexpensive, relative to the west and east coasts. Unless you are going to save a decent amount of cash, what is the attraction for a southerner to attend a school in a hicksville, midwest town.

If recruiting is the goal, Drake needs to continue to concentrate on the east coast with new emphasis on the west coast, where the cost of living and tuition is higher than the midwest. A school like Santa Clara is $15,000 more than Drake. Pacific is $6,000 more. Bradley is $10,000 cheaper than Drake. Pitching their school to parents in California has huge potential. Great education at a low price. Price matters. Maybe Denver would be a good add. Tuition at a Colorado schools have jumped through the roof. Could be a good opportunity for midwest schools to undercut them on price.

There's a give and take, though, because there's also a lot more private school competition on the East Coast. I don't think Drake's competition is really Manhattan College as a school that's in or around a major metro area. Kids that want to go to those types of schools are going to pay that premium for location. Instead, it's really schools like St. Bonaventure (to use an A-10 example) that Drake is competing with and are going to engage in heavy tuition discounting for target students in order to be price competitive. There are LOTS of private schools like that on the East Coast even more so than the Midwest.

In contrast, there aren't as many of those types of private schools in the South by comparison. Drake's draw can't be just price because if that's what matters, then everyone would simply go to a local in-state public university. Instead, it needs to be a reasonable price for a high engagement private school experience. That's what Drake can sell to someone in Dallas that actually isn't that easy to find in Texas.

I agree that it would be great if Drake could draw more California students, but that state is much more similar to the East Coast and Midwest in terms of a greater saturation of local private school competition. Santa Clara is #55 in the US News Rankings in the middle of Silicon Valley - they're going to draw students that aren't as price sensitive (think the typical Villanova or Syracuse student).

Whether a Southern-focused recruitment target will work for Drake or any other MVC school is an open question. However, it's simply too large of a market to ignore - it's the one area that has a growing product (high school students that want to go to college) that is otherwise declining everywhere else. My belief is that these schools HAVE to try and I don't think that I'm alone considering that UTA is apparently the #1 expansion choice for the MVC private schools.

And that is a big reason was Grand Canyon was even discussed. While GCU is technically a "PRIVATE" school, it acts more like a big public. You have one of the fastest growth states with no true liberal arts colleges, but a big demand for that type of education. Combined with a large transplant Midwest population that grew up hearing about Drake/Bradley/Valpo etc, exposure in Arizona would be a goal for those schools.

(11-17-2021 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  However, the long-term issue is that the population of college-aged students is falling every year in the Midwest and Northeast, so schools like Drake can no longer rely upon those regions as a source of students if they want to keep their enrollment numbers stable. The future growth of college-aged students is all in the major markets in Texas, Southeast (hence the attraction of Belmont to the MVC regardless of on-the-court credentials), and Interior West (e.g. Denver, Phoenix).

This is more of a Rust Belt issue than it is a Midwest issue - and it is very Chicago of you to play fast and loose with that distinction :). Those Midwestern metro areas that weren't built on manufacturing (most notably Minneapolis-St. Paul, Columbus, Indianapolis, Madison) are growing at a fine clip.

It becomes an interesting optimization problem: DFW is larger and growing faster than MSP, but due to proximity it may be a superior option for Drake to play regular games in MSP in the near-to-mid term.

(11-17-2021 03:43 PM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  However, the long-term issue is that the population of college-aged students is falling every year in the Midwest and Northeast, so schools like Drake can no longer rely upon those regions as a source of students if they want to keep their enrollment numbers stable. The future growth of college-aged students is all in the major markets in Texas, Southeast (hence the attraction of Belmont to the MVC regardless of on-the-court credentials), and Interior West (e.g. Denver, Phoenix).

This is more of a Rust Belt issue than it is a Midwest issue - and it is very Chicago of you to play fast and loose with that distinction :). Those Midwestern metro areas that weren't built on manufacturing (most notably Minneapolis-St. Paul, Columbus, Indianapolis, Madison) are growing at a fine clip.

That's a bit of an exaggeration, considering that those metro areas are growing modestly while other counties in the same state are losing population, as the first map below shows. It could easily be that people from outlying counties in Minnesota, for example, are just moving close to the urban center.

The second map below shows that all midwestern states are gaining population at a rate that is far below the national average growth rate, with the exceptions of Minnesota (gaining barely above the national average) and Illinois (slightly dropping in population from 2010 to 2020).

(11-17-2021 03:43 PM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 12:09 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  However, the long-term issue is that the population of college-aged students is falling every year in the Midwest and Northeast, so schools like Drake can no longer rely upon those regions as a source of students if they want to keep their enrollment numbers stable. The future growth of college-aged students is all in the major markets in Texas, Southeast (hence the attraction of Belmont to the MVC regardless of on-the-court credentials), and Interior West (e.g. Denver, Phoenix).

This is more of a Rust Belt issue than it is a Midwest issue - and it is very Chicago of you to play fast and loose with that distinction :). Those Midwestern metro areas that weren't built on manufacturing (most notably Minneapolis-St. Paul, Columbus, Indianapolis, Madison) are growing at a fine clip.

It becomes an interesting optimization problem: DFW is larger and growing faster than MSP, but due to proximity it may be a superior option for Drake to play regular games in MSP in the near-to-mid term.

Even in the Midwestern and Northeastern markets where the general population growth has been steady, there is still an outright decline in the number of high school graduates every year. The birth rate was already slowing since the early-2000s, dropped heavily in 2008 (the start of the Great Recession), continued to decline every year thereafter, and then plummeted even worse in connection with the pandemic over the past year. Combine this with slowed down immigration rates (which was what had been largely propping up US population growth from 1990-2015) due to various political policies plus the pandemic and you've got a complete cocktail for a lot fewer school aged kids even if the adult population is growing.