Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
From an OVERALL Perspective...
SDSU gets the Choke of the Week in their loss to South Dakota. That collapse has likely cost them a high Seed and could make their playoff run much more difficult.
We finally do have some AQ spots clinched! This has helped to eliminate some of those teams who were looking to steal a playoff spot by winning an AQ but have an overall losing record. Some of the other conferences will have de facto championship games in the final week while a few others could go deep into the tie-breaker scenarios – which vary for each conference (and are frustratingly not always published online). It does look to be an exciting day next Saturday.
To make the playoffs you have to either win a conference Automatic Qualifier (AQ) spot or receive an At-Large bid. To be eligible for an At-Large, technically you need to have at least 6 wins. However, it is very difficult for a 6-win team to claim a spot. Most years, there are enough teams with 7+ wins and a decent resume. (And on my charts, the only games that are considered to be wins are ones against D1 teams – lower division wins do not count. So they are basically the same as losses.) This year, there are 11 AQ spots (an increase of one due to the ASUN/WAC “challenge”) and 13 At-Large spots.
From a JMU Perspective...
The Dukes managed to make it past W&M which increases their chances of getting a high Seed. Having SDSU lose also helps. If JMU can knock off Towson in the final week, they should be in line for a top 3 Seed. Montana State will have a tough game against Montana and NDSU will have a tough game against South Dakota, so we might even receive some extra help.
JMU needs to focus on getting a solid win and keeping everyone healthy so they get ready for a home game in December.
By the Numbers (108 total teams)...
Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/24 – 91
10/31 – 74
11/7 – 65
11/14 – 50
Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/24 – 74
10/31 – 66
11/7 – 61
11/14 – 47
Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/24 – 11
10/31 – 19
11/7 – 28
11/14 – 29
Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.
Clinched Conference Titles
ASUN/WAC – Sam Houston State
Big Sky –
Big South –
CAA –
MVC –
NEC –
OVC – Tenn-Martin
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer –
SoCon –
Southland –
CAA Football (8 Teams Alive)
JMU – 9 wins
Villanova – 8 wins
URI – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
W&M – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
Delaware (0) – cannot win AQ
Elon (0) – cannot win AQ
Richmond (0) – cannot win AQ
Maine (0) – cannot win AQ
ASUN/WAC (4 Teams Alive)
Sam Houston State – 9 wins – clinched AQ
EKU – 6 wins
Stephen F. Austin – 6 wins
Jacksonville State (0)
Big Sky (6 Teams Alive)
Montana State – 9 wins
Sacramento State – 8 wins
UC Davis – 8 wins – cannot win AQ
Montana – 8 wins – cannot win AQ
EWU – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
Weber State (0) – cannot win AQ
Big South (3 Teams Alive)
Kennesaw State – 8 wins
Monmouth – 7 wins
NC A&T (0) – cannot win AQ
MEAC (0 Teams Alive – No AQ)
SC State (0) – clinched “bowl” game
MVC (7 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 9 wins
South Dakota – 7 wins
SIU – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
Missouri State – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
SDSU – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
No. Iowa (0) – cannot win AQ
North Dakota (0) – cannot win AQ
NEC (4 Teams Alive)
Sacred Heart – 7 wins
Bryant – 6 wins
StFU (0)
Duquesne (0)
OVC (3 Teams Alive)
Tenn.-Martin – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Austin Peay (0)
Murray State (0)
Patriot League (2 Teams Alive)
Holy Cross – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Fordham – 6 wins
Pioneer League (5 Teams Alive)
Davidson – 6 wins
San Diego – 6 wins
Marist (0)
Morehead State (0) – cannot win AQ
Dayton (0) – cannot win AQ
SoCon (5 Teams Alive)
ETSU – 8 wins
Mercer – 6 wins
Chattanooga – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
VMI – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
Furman (0) – cannot win AQ
Southland (3 Teams Alive)
SE Louisiana – 8 wins
Incarnate Word – 8 wins
Nicholls State (0) – cannot win AQ
Must Win Out to reach 6 wins:
Delaware
Elon
Richmond
Maine
Jacksonville State
Weber State
NC A&T
No. Iowa
North Dakota
Duquesne
StFU
Austin Peay
Murray State
Marist
Dayton
Morehead State
Furman
Nicholls State
Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this past week)
North Alabama (transitioning to I-AA until 2022)
Merrimack (transitioning to I-AA until 2023)
Dixie State (transitioning to I-AA until 2024)
Tarleton State (transitioning to I-AA until 2024)
St. Thomas (transitioning to I-AA until 2024)
McNeese State (postseason ban for low APR)
Albany
UNH
Towson
Stony Brook
Central Ark
Lamar
Abilene Christian
Northern Colorado
Idaho
Cal Poly
Southern Utah
Idaho State
Portland State
Northern Arizona
Gardner-Webb
Hampton
Campbell
Charleston Southern
Robert Morris
Howard
Morgan State
Delaware State
NC Central
Norfolk State
Illinois State
Indiana State
Youngstown State
W. Illinois
Wagner
CCSU
LIU
Tenn. State
SE Missouri State
EIU
Tenn. Tech
Lafayette
Georgetown
Lehigh
Bucknell
Colgate
Drake
Butler
Presbyterian
Valparaiso
Stetson
Western Carolina
Wofford
Citadel
Samford
Houston Baptist
NW State
Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Sam Houston
Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Wagner
Houston Baptist
Conference Analysis
CAA Football – Entering the week, the CAA was the only conference left that had a double-digit number of teams still alive for the playoffs. Well, we’re finally down to single-digits with both Towson and Stony Brook being officially knocked out with losses. The overall playoff picture for the CAA has actually become a lot more clear now that JMU and Villanova have separated themselves from the rest of the path and are now the only two teams left who could win the AQ. Villanova has the head-to-head tie-breaker over JMU, so all they need to do is beat Delaware in the final week to clinch. If Delaware is able to pull off the upset (which would not be a gigantic surprise considering they were able to step up their game when they beat W&M a week ago), then JMU can get the AQ with a win over Towson. However, we can easily say that both JMU and Villanova will be in the playoffs no matter what. The big questions will be regarding whether both teams get a Seed and if so, which team is ranked higher? If both teams win, Villanova will have that head-to-head win over JMU – although that would have been 6 weeks ago. Villanova would also have more losses – although one of them was to I-A Penn State. But that 2nd loss was to a team JMU just beat. There are arguments to both teams getting a higher Seed, so it will likely be a coin flip. As for the other teams in the CAA, the only teams with a realistic chance of receiving an At-Large are URI and W&M. For URI, they now have 7 wins – with one of them being over UMass (who is now sitting at 0-2 in the CAA this year). After a rough three game stretch, they have won two games in a row and will finish up with Elon. If they can win, they should get an At-Large. If they lose, they will have to sweat it out on the bubble. W&M is now in the opposite situation. While they do have a great win over Villanova, they have now lost two games in a row and three of their last five. In the final week, they will face rival Richmond – who has now won three in a row. If W&M wins, they will reach 7 wins and will be on the bubble. If they lose, they’re chances will be gone. Finally, we have Delaware, Elon, Richmond, and Maine. All four of these teams will reach 6 wins with victories in the final week, but that won’t be enough. So while they are technically alive, all four should have their seasons end once the regular season is over.
ASUN/WAC – Sam Houston took on EKU this past weekend and came out victorious. Sam Houston has now clinched the AQ for this makeshift “conference”. They will likely get the #1 Seed if they can beat a bad Abilene Christian team in the final week and stay as the only undefeated team in I-AA. If they happen to lose, they’ll take a major hit in the rankings. Both EKU and Stephen F Austin are sitting with 6 D1 wins right now and could reach 7 wins. However, their resumes are both pretty weak. Between those two teams, the only win over a team with a winning record is Stephen F Austin’s win over EKU. These both would be bubble teams if they win their final games – and, ironically, they could be the victims of the fact there is one less At-Large spot this year due to this “conference”.
Big Sky – With six teams remaining in the Big Sky, let’s take care of one of them right now. Weber State can only reach 6 wins and the best case scenario is for them to be tied for 6th place n the Big Sky. I don’t see them with a path to the playoffs, so the focus will now be on the other five teams – who all have very good chances of making it in. The AQ comes down to Montana State and Sacramento State – who are both sitting at 7-0 in the conference and do not play each other. Obviously, if one team wins in the final week while the other loses, the winning team takes the AQ. If they both win or both lose, it could get more complicated. With the head-to-head tie-breaker irrelevant, the next stat to look at is record against common opponents – but in descending order. If Montana State and Sacramento both lose, Sacramento State gets the AQ. (The only common opponent where both teams had different outcomes would be Montana – who Montana State would have just lost to.) If Montana State and Sacramento both win, that stat will be moot since they’ll both be undefeated against all common opponents. The AQ would then go the Sagarin rankings leader. Right now, Montana State is at #106 and Sacramento State is at #124. Montana State plays a higher ranked opponent (Montana) than Sacramento (UC Davis), so logic would stand to reason that Montana State would see their lead increase if they both win. However, it is safe to say that both teams will be in regardless. With all five teams at the top of the standings (Montana State, Sacramento, UC Davis, Montana, and EWU) already having 7 wins – and with the three non-AQ contenders each having I-A wins – it will take a huge upset for any of these teams to be left out. It is also likely that 2-3 Seeds will go to this conference, but we’ll have to see what happens with their final games to see who that could be. Because four of these teams will play each other (Montana State vs Montana and Sacramento vs UC Davis), we know that at least two of these five teams will pick up another loss. (And don’t expect Portland State to lie down when they play against EWU.) Wins will be crucial for Seed contention.
Big South – Both Kennesaw and Monmouth won this past weekend (even though it took a last-minute TD for Kennesaw to beat a terrible North Alabama), but those games were just to shore up resumes for the conference runner-up. The title game will be next weekend when Monmouth travels to Kennesaw. The winner gets the AQ and the loser goes onto the bubble. To be honest, neither team looks especially impressive. With a loss, Monmouth would be 7-4 with no signature wins. Kennesaw would be 8-2 in D1, but again, with no real signature wins. There could be an At-Large coming from here, but we’ll have to see who else is in competition.
MEAC – To make the playoffs, a MEAC team cannot win the conference title (which would send them to the HBCU “bowl” game) and they have to have a very strong resume. SC State just won the conference, so they are going to the Celebration Bowl. No one else can even reach 6 wins.
MVC – Because this can get very complicated (and I can’t find official word that I am looking at the correct tie-breakers), I am going to trust NCAA’s website with regards to the AQ situation here. If NDSU beats South Dakota, they get the AQ. (That scenario is easy.) If South Dakota wins, South Dakota would need SIU to lose to a terrible Youngstown State AND have Missouri State lose to an even worse Dixie State to get the AQ. Otherwise, the AQ goes to NDSU. However, if South Dakota can get the win, the AQ wouldn’t matter – they would easily get an At-Large bid and possibly a Seed – likely moving ahead of NDSU. Could South Dakota still get in with a loss? It’s very possible, but it does get more difficult. They would likely be team #5 from the MVC in that case – which might hurt in a year where there are only 13 At-Large bids instead of 14. We’d have to see what else happens next week. As for the other top MVC teams, Missouri State should get their 8th win in the final week – to get them an At-Large. SIU stopped their slide just in time to give them a real chance of grabbing an At-Large if they can beat Youngstown. Then there is SDSU. They have 7 wins right now with some good wins and no bad losses. If they beat North Dakota, they should be in. If they lose, they’ll probably still be in, but it we need to see how many (good) 8-win teams there are in the other strong conferences.
NEC – The top four teams in the NEC played the bottom four teams this past weekend and there were no upsets, so it will come down to the final week. Sacred Heart has the advantage right now. If they win, they get the AQ. If they lose (to a bad LIU), we could have as many as four teams tied for first. (Again, the top four teams will be playing the bottom four teams.) Because there can be so many variables, I am not going through all of the scenarios, but I am almost certain that if Bryant were to also lose, Sacred Heart would still get the AQ. (Sacred Heart has beaten both Duquesne and StFU, so they would get those head-to-head tie-breakers.) None of these teams would be candidates for an At-Large, so pay attention to those other games if you see Sacred Heart losing on Saturday.
OVC – Tenn-Martin clinched the AQ with a win over Tennessee Tech and SEMO’s loss to Murray State. SEMO’s loss is huge in that they had a real chance to “steal” a playoff spot by winning the AQ. Now, the OVC should be down to just the single bid. Tenn-Martin could possibly finish at 10-1, but as of now, none of those victories was over a team with a winning record, so I do not see them getting a Seed.
Patriot – This AQ race could have become very chaotic if Holy Cross were to lose to Fordham this past weekend. Fortunately, Holy Cross won. They now have clinched the AQ. The only other team eligible for the playoffs is Fordham – who doesn’t have the resume to be seriously considered for an At-Large.
Pioneer – Davidson could not get past Dayton this past weekend, so they do not end the AQ race. However, they still do have the advantage, so if they can beat a bad Drake team in the final week, they will get the AQ. If they lose, the attention turns to San Diego – who would need to beat a bad Stetson team to get the AQ. If both Davidson and San Diego are upset, then we could have a three or four-way tie. Morehead has lost to both Davidson and San Diego, so common sense says that they will be knocked out in at least one round of tie-breakers. Marist did not play either Davidson or San Diego, so things could become complicated if they get involved.
SoCon – What had been a very tight race at the top of the conference loosened up considerably over the weekend as Mercer beat Chatty and Furman upset VMI. The AQ now will be a decided by a simple championship game between ETSU and Mercer in the final week. (It’s awesome how that happened to work out!) If ETSU loses, they should easily get an At-Large. They have 8 D1 wins – including ones over VMI, Furman, and I-A Vanderbilt. Mercer will have a tougher time claiming an At-Large. They only played 9 DI games...and will be only 6-3 if they do not win the AQ. They do have wins over Chatty and Furman, but only having six total wins might doom them. Chatty has 6 wins right now – having beaten Furman and ETSU. I think they get in with a win over a bad Citadel. If they lose, they probably deserve to be out with a bad loss like that. Then there is VMI. They have 6 wins right now – including ones over Chatty and Mercer. But they have now lost two games in a row (to ETSU and Furman) and also has lost to Citadel. They are currently on the very edge of contenders. If they lose to Western Carolina, then they are done. If they win, they’ll have to see what else has happened across the country.
Southland – Incarnate Word beat Nicholls, so Nicholls is now out of the AQ race (and realistically out of the playoff race entirely). Incarnate Word now only has to beat Houston Baptist (who is 0-10 for the season) to win the AQ. If Incarnate Word happens to lose, then SELA would get the AQ if they beat Nicholls. Is there room here for an At-Large? Maybe, but it will be close. Incarnate Word would be 8-3 with a terrible loss to Youngstown State at the very beginning of the season. However, they also beat I-A Texas State a few weeks later. But that loss to Houston Baptist (that would have to happen in this situation) would likely be too much to recover from. For SELA, they could possibly have no wins over teams with a winning record – although they could be responsible for two of Nicholls’ losses. Again, it will be a close call.
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Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
