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Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
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KickItToScotty Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
If all of these teams win this week I think it ends up:

1. SHSU
2. Montana State
3. NDSU
4. Villanova
5. JMU

The committee has generally shown that an FBS win can help but an FBS loss doesn't hurt, and has also shown in the past that in scenarios like JMU vs Villanova they'll give the higher seed to the head to head winner. Big Sky is better than the CAA this year, they might even put Sacramento State above us if they beat UC Davis.
11-15-2021 02:27 PM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
Holy geez...is the bracket show in 6 days?
11-15-2021 02:53 PM
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Dukester Online
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Post: #43
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
(11-15-2021 02:27 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  If all of these teams win this week I think it ends up:

1. SHSU
2. Montana State
3. NDSU
4. Villanova
5. JMU

The committee has generally shown that an FBS win can help but an FBS loss doesn't hurt, and has also shown in the past that in scenarios like JMU vs Villanova they'll give the higher seed to the head to head winner. Big Sky is better than the CAA this year, they might even put Sacramento State above us if they beat UC Davis.

That could certainly happen, and to be quite honest I'd excitedly take that.

1) We could knock out the top CAA team.
2) Home field advantage for Nova? yeah right
3) Chance to pay back Nova for our only loss
4) Chance to payback SHSU for last year
5) Would not have to play at NDSU.

I really wish we could host NDSU, but that looks very unlikely unless they lose to S Dakota, which is possible but highly unlikely at home.
11-15-2021 03:41 PM
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PurpleSoloCup84 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
I assume they didn't do a first look at seeds a few weeks before the end of the season - like they did a couple of years ago. ?? A couple of years ago, during a weeknight football game, they showed who would be seeded if season ended now. Can't recall if they did that more then one season or not.
11-15-2021 07:57 PM
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NH/JMU Saxkow Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
(11-15-2021 07:57 PM)PurpleSoloCup84 Wrote:  I assume they didn't do a first look at seeds a few weeks before the end of the season - like they did a couple of years ago. ?? A couple of years ago, during a weeknight football game, they showed who would be seeded if season ended now. Can't recall if they did that more then one season or not.

No - they did not do that this year. (But even if they did, we went down in the Seeding last time even though we won all of our remaining games...so those rankings were completely worthless.)
11-15-2021 10:53 PM
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94computerguy Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
(11-15-2021 12:27 PM)jmuwyhamhgawd Wrote:  2016 a 4 seed when we were ranked 5 (ask Soft Houston how they feel about that one)

I think it's safe to say that somewhere in the first 63 points, we demonstrated the seeding was appropriate. It's not like we had a 50-point home field advantage.

I mean, "we're ranked #1! We deserve at least a 4 seed!" <<< loses 63-7 to the 5th ranked team >>> "it's because we had to play in the coldy-cold OF NOTED ARCTIC STATE VIRGINIA, not that playing high school teams all year made us look better than we were."
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2021 12:34 AM by 94computerguy.)
11-16-2021 12:32 AM
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JMUNation Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
NDSUs one loss is to a three loss team currently ranked #12 in the country. That team isn’t even in the top three of the MVFC. NDSU trailed by more than one score most of the game until outscoring SDSU 5-0 in the 4th quarter.

JMU’s one loss is by 1 point to an 8-1 team ranked #6. NDSU doesn’t have any solid OOC wins. JMU did beat Weber handily on the road. While Weber is a middle of the road Big Sky school, they are way better than the teams NDSU played.

NDSU beat Towson 35-7. If JMU wins by a larger margin, I don’t know how NDSU gets seeded higher than JMU. Nova has an argument to be seeded higher than JMU. MSU does too. NDSU does not. I don’t care how supposedly strong the MVFC is. NDSUs OOC resume is very weak. They were dominated by SDSU. They don’t deserve a seed.

You guys poo poo the CAA but JMU and Nova are as good as the top teams in other conferences.

1-Montana St.- if they beat Montana. Big Sky is arguably the best league this year. Three FBS wins by the conference members.
2-JMU- lost one game by a point. 5-0 on the road. 9 wins by more than one score. Beat Weber handily on the road. Weber’s record isn’t great but their games against the best teams in the Big Sky have been close and they beat EWU on the road.
3-Nova- CAA winner. They were beaten handily by the Tribe and at home. Only beat Albany 17-10. One upset over JMU is not enough.
4-SHSU- SOS stinks. They have played no one. They get a seed because they are the undefeated reigning national champion who beat JMU, NDSU & SDSU in the playoffs this past spring.
5- NDSU and only because of reputation. What has the MVFC done of note this year? Their best wins are against each other. You might be able to swap Nova and NDSU but I give Nova the edge because they beat JMU and we’re somewhat competitive with Penn St. NDSU has no marquee wins.
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2021 12:36 PM by JMUNation.)
11-16-2021 12:34 PM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
Updated at nobowls.com ...........

Nova rematch?
Chance to play Montana?
Softies and NDSU on same side?
I'll take it

http://nobowls.com/
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2021 12:43 PM by bcp_jmu.)
11-16-2021 12:41 PM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
(11-16-2021 12:41 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  Updated at nobowls.com ...........

Nova rematch?
Chance to play Montana?
Softies and NDSU on same side?
I'll take it

http://nobowls.com/

URI is ranked #25 this week in the Stats top 25.

Anyone think they are a bubble team, or are they solidly in? I guess the FBS win at UMass helps a lot, but they had horrible games against Towson and Nova, along with the Maine loss. Elon seems like a must win game for them.
11-16-2021 12:51 PM
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jmudukes001 Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
(11-15-2021 03:41 PM)Dukester Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 02:27 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  If all of these teams win this week I think it ends up:

1. SHSU
2. Montana State
3. NDSU
4. Villanova
5. JMU

The committee has generally shown that an FBS win can help but an FBS loss doesn't hurt, and has also shown in the past that in scenarios like JMU vs Villanova they'll give the higher seed to the head to head winner. Big Sky is better than the CAA this year, they might even put Sacramento State above us if they beat UC Davis.

That could certainly happen, and to be quite honest I'd excitedly take that.

1) We could knock out the top CAA team.
2) Home field advantage for Nova? yeah right
3) Chance to pay back Nova for our only loss
4) Chance to payback SHSU for last year
5) Would not have to play at NDSU.

I really wish we could host NDSU, but that looks very unlikely unless they lose to S Dakota, which is possible but highly unlikely at home.

Totally agree with you on NDSU. Other than making it to Frisco, my hope is that we get to host NDSU. Too bad it has never happened or may never happen.
11-16-2021 12:54 PM
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JMU2004 Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
I've got a feeling they dump us b/t seed 4-6.

SHSU gets #1 because they're the defending champs and are undefeated.
NDSU gets the higher seed because they're NDSU.
Montana State because Big Fluffy teams always get a high seed.
Villanova could be higher than us due to the head to head win and CAA champ. PSU loss means nothing.

Root for UD, Griz, and USD.
11-16-2021 12:55 PM
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DoubleDogDare Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
While I don't necessarily disagree with any of the details/justifications that JMUNation points out, there is nearly 0% chance that the committee is seeding 2 CAA teams above a MVFC champion with 1 FCS loss, especially when one of the CAA teams lost to the other.

I don't think the committee cares that SDSU has 3 losses, they are going to see SDSU is ranked #10/11 (as SDSU is going to jump the UC Davis / Sac State loser and I'll guess that either Mercer or Monmouth is going to upset ETSU or Kennesaw to put SDSU as #10). Assuming Nova is ranked #6 and SDSU #10, you are splitting hairs on the JMU/NDSU loss comparison. What they will then note is NDSU beat #14 Missouri St and a likely win against #16 South Dakota (who will drop with the win), which is infinitely more top 25 wins than JMU (0 based on current rankings; W&M may creep back in). A 1 loss MVFC champion that is 2-1 versus top 25 is getting seeded above the second place CAA team w/o a top 25 win, 99.99% of the time.

MAYBE if Northern Iowa upsets SDSU's making NDSU's loss look worse, and we blow out Towson, then MAYBE there is a small chance.
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2021 01:28 PM by DoubleDogDare.)
11-16-2021 01:27 PM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
(11-16-2021 12:55 PM)JMU2004 Wrote:  I've got a feeling they dump us b/t seed 4-6.

SHSU gets #1 because they're the defending champs and are undefeated.
NDSU gets the higher seed because they're NDSU.
Montana State because Big Fluffy teams always get a high seed.
Villanova could be higher than us due to the head to head win and CAA champ. PSU loss means nothing.

Root for UD, Griz, and USD.

Agree

I could see things playing out this way, particularly since the CAA representative (Rhode Island AD Thorr Bjorn) is unlikely to push for us as a higher seed than the likely CAA champ (Nova). Maybe best case Nova gets a 3 seed, and we get the 4 seed.

SHSU #1 - good chance, unless the SOS kills them.
Montana St - likely #2 seed right now. Great SOS and close loss to FBS Wyoming
Nova - CAA title plus head-to-head will be the argument for higher seed.
NDSU - We should be above them, but 2 CAA schools seeded above MVC may not happen.

All of this makes me think we are around a #5 seed right now. UD, Griz, USD wins could change that.
11-16-2021 02:12 PM
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Deez Nuts Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
LFG Griz this weekend.


#JOTG
11-16-2021 02:21 PM
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NH/JMU Saxkow Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
Not directly affecting our position, SELA lost last night to Nicholls State in the Southland. Incarnate Word takes the AQ, while SELA and Nichols are now on the bubble.

At first glance, SELA might look to be in a strong position with an 8-3 record, but here is the list of those teams they beat (and the record of those teams going into the final Saturday):
- North Alabama (2-8)
- Central Conn. (3-7...with a loss to D2 South Conn.)
- McNeese State (4-6...with a loss to D2 West Florida) - beat twice
- Nicholls State (6-5) - beat once, lost in rematch
- Houston Baptist (0-10)
- NW State (2-8...beat Houston Baptist twice)

That is NOT a good resume. The four other Southland teams that SELA beat have a combined 12 total wins...with 5 of those wins being against Houston Baptist (and one being against SELA themselves). It would have been questionable even if SELA had won their final game, but they didn't even do that.

Nicholls is in an even worse position at 6-5. None of those losses were "bad" (two I-A losses, twice to Incarnate Word, once to SELA), but their only good win was against SELA...who they also lost to. They really would need to have SELA get in and THEN they would have a chance at a remaining spot...so there is no real chance.
11-19-2021 10:09 PM
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bcp_jmu Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
How about we score 6 TDs and 2 FGs so that they don't think we are a paper tiger?
11-19-2021 10:51 PM
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NH/JMU Saxkow Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
(11-19-2021 10:51 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  How about we score 6 TDs and 2 FGs so that they don't think we are a paper tiger?

(Against the Towson Tigers...how ironic!)

I definitely think we need a good win if we are playing for a top Seed. A 4-point win over what would be a 4-7 Towson team would kill our argument that we deserve to be ranked that high.

We need to run up at least a 3-score lead. If we go above that, get some 2nd teamers in there to avoid key injuries.
11-19-2021 11:54 PM
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94computerguy Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
(11-19-2021 11:54 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  
(11-19-2021 10:51 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  How about we score 6 TDs and 2 FGs so that they don't think we are a paper tiger?

(Against the Towson Tigers...how ironic!)

I definitely think we need a good win if we are playing for a top Seed. A 4-point win over what would be a 4-7 Towson team would kill our argument that we deserve to be ranked that high.

We need to run up at least a 3-score lead. If we go above that, get some 2nd teamers in there to avoid key injuries.

I want to practice punching it in from the 10, either running it or passing, I really don't care. But let's score A LOT.
11-20-2021 06:40 AM
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Hart Foundation Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
Quick summary, who are we rooting for today?
11-20-2021 10:32 AM
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NH/JMU Saxkow Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/14/21
(11-20-2021 10:32 AM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  Quick summary, who are we rooting for today?

For JMU's positioning:

DUKES
Delaware over Villanova
DUKES
Montana over Montana State
DUKES
South Dakota over NDSU
DUKES
UC Davis over Sacramento State
DUKES
Mercer over ETSU
and....DUKES
11-20-2021 10:43 AM
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