With two weeks left in the regular season, 60 schools have already met the 6 win threshold for bowl eligibility. Another 31 already have 7 losses. These are the 39 schools still hoping to qualify. They, and their remaining opponents are as follows (most recent Massey Composite rank in parentheses):

Teams with five wins (25):

(41) Tennessee...........(102) South Alabama, (121) Vanderbilt
(42) Miami.................(74) Virginia Tech, @(107) Duke
(44) North Carolina.....(FCS) Wofford, @(23) NC State
(49) Florida................@(87) Missouri, (79) Florida State
(56) Louisville.............@(107) Duke, (33) Kentucky
(57) Washington St......(116) Arizona, @(77) Washington
(58) Maryland..............(4) Michigan, @(69) Rutgers
(60) Syracuse..............@(23) NC State, (24) Pitt
(61) South Carolina......(18) Auburn, (27) Clemson
(69) Rutgers................@(16) Penn State, (58) Maryland
(74) Virginia Tech.........@(42) Miami, @(36) Virginia
(78) Memphis...............@(28) Houston, (108) Tulane
(80) Ball State..............(94) Central Michigan, (106) Buffalo
(82) Kent State.............@(125) Akron, (92) Miami (O)
(85) Toledo...................@(119) Ohio, (125) Akron
(86) Florida Atlantic.......@(67) Western Kentucky, @(128) Southern Miss
(87) Missouri................(49) Florida, @(26) Arkansas
(89) Wyoming...............@(52) Utah State, (103) Hawaii
(90) Georgia State........(124) Arkansas State, (96) Troy
(92) Miami (O)..............(113) Bowling Green, @(82) Kent State
(96) Troy......................(31) Appalachian State, @(90) Georgia State
(98) San Jose State.......idle, (45) Fresno State
(101) MTSU..................(111) Old Dominion, @(86) Florida Atlantic
(102) South Alabama.....@(41) Tennessee, (34) Coastal Carolina
(105) Charlotte.............(62) Marshall, @ (111) Old Dominion

Teams with four wins (14):

(38) Texas....................@(55) West Virginia, (30) Kansas State
(51) LSU.......................(104) LA-Monroe, (11) Texas A&M
(55) West Virginia..........(38) Texas, @(122) Kansas
(64) TCU.......................(122) Kansas, @(20) Iowa State
(66) Illinois....................@(13) Iowa, (95) Northwestern
(71) USC.......................(50) UCLA, @(91) California
(77) Washington.............@(99) Colorado, (57) Washington State
(79) Florida State...........@(75) Boston College, (49) Florida
(93) Tulsa......................(120) Temple, @(47) SMU
(103) Hawaii *................(97) Colorado State, (89) Wyoming
(104) LA-Monroe.............@(51) LSU, @37 Louisiana
(106) Buffalo..................(72) Northern Illinois, @(80) Ball State
(111) Old Dominion.........@(101) MTSU, (105) Charlotte
(117) North Texas...........@(127) Florida International, (19) UT-San Antonio

* Hawaii already has 7 losses, and will play 13 games. With 6 wins they could sneak in if there aren't enough eligible teams.

My current guess, based on the above matchups, is that we will finish with between 78-80 eligible teams.

Each day,as games are completed, I will use this post to update where we stand while keeping the OP intact as a reference from where we started this stretch run. I won't bother to update Massey rankings, which are already a little out of date since they don't include Week 11 results.

Teams with five wins (20):

Florida.................Florida State
Maryland..............@ Rutgers
Syracuse..............Pitt -11
Rutgers................Maryland
Virginia Tech.........@ Virginia -8
Memphis..............Tulane +5.5
Ball State.............Buffalo +6
Florida Atlantic......MTSU
Troy.....................@ Georgia State -6
San Jose State.......Fresno State -9
MTSU.................. @ Florida Atlantic
South Alabama......Coastal Carolina -15
Charlotte..............@ Old Dominion
LSU.......................Texas A&M -6
West Virginia..........@ Kansas +15
TCU.......................@ Iowa State -15
Florida State...........@Florida
Tulsa.....................@ SMU -6
Old Dominion.........Charlotte
North Texas...........UT-San Antonio -11.5

Team with four wins (1):

California...............@UCLA -7, USC

After Week 12:

Eligible: 72
Ineligible: 37
Undecided: 21
/b]

Teams in blue are playing another five win team, so one of them must win and the other be eliminated. That adds four eligible to the total bringing us to 76.

Teams in red are underdogs this week. That leaves three schools that are favored to become eligible. If all the favorites win, that would only bring the number of eligible schools to 79 (same as last year).

So we would need three out of ten underdogs to pull an upset to get to 82.

Week 12 weeknight games involving undecided teams:

Tues..Toledo -6 @ Ohio
.........Bowling Green @ Miami (O) -15.5

Wed...Central Michigan @ Ball State +2.5
.........Northern Illinois @ Buffalo +2

Thur...Louisville -20 @ Duke

Fri....Arizona @ Washington State -15
........Memphis +8.5 @ Houston

This is exceptionally helpful!

How many bowl slots are there?

(11-15-2021 09:49 AM)OscarWildeCat Wrote:  How many bowl slots are there?

82

Looks like Miami(O) will join Toledo among the bowl eligibles tonight. That brings us to 62. Just 20 more to go.

In both of tonight's games the teams needing a win are at home, but slight underdogs. The spreads are close enough that no outcome could be considered an upset. In Buffalo's case, though, if they don't win they are eliminated with a seventh loss, while Ball State still gets one more shot at a sixth win if they lose tonight.

From your list, I count 15 teams that I think will make it.

Would that leave us short?

Rutgers or Maryland will get in since they are at five and play each other.

(11-17-2021 12:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  From your list, I count 15 teams that I think will make it.

Would that leave us short?

It would. Last year 79 teams qualified with six wins, and it's looking like this year may come up short as well. But we could have some upsets and squeeze by. All the same, though, I'd rather the problem get solved by reducing the number of bowls. But I believe the PTB would rather have to let a five win team get in than have a six win team get left out.

(11-15-2021 09:33 AM)ken d Wrote:  Tennessee...........South Alabama, Vanderbilt
Miami.................Virginia Tech, @ Duke
North Carolina.....Wofford, @ NC State
Florida................@ Missouri, Florida State
Louisville.............@ Duke, Kentucky
Washington St......Arizona, @ Washington
Maryland.............Michigan, @ Rutgers
South Carolina......Auburn, Clemson
Rutgers...............@ Penn State, Maryland
Memphis..............@ Houston, Tulane
Ball State.............Central Michigan, Buffalo
Kent State............@ Akron, Miami (O)
Florida Atlantic......@ Western Kentucky, @ Southern Miss
Wyoming..............@ Utah State, Hawaii
Georgia State........Arkansas State, Troy
MTSU.................. Old Dominion, @ Florida Atlantic


Teams with four wins (14):

West Virginia..........Texas, @ Kansas



Eligible: 62
Ineligible: 31
Undecided: 37

My predictions to make 6 wins - 17 teams

(11-17-2021 01:54 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 09:33 AM)ken d Wrote:  Tennessee...........South Alabama, Vanderbilt
Miami.................Virginia Tech, @ Duke
North Carolina.....Wofford, @ NC State
Florida................@ Missouri, Florida State
Louisville.............@ Duke, Kentucky
Washington St......Arizona, @ Washington
Maryland.............Michigan, @ Rutgers
South Carolina......Auburn, Clemson
Rutgers...............@ Penn State, Maryland
Memphis..............@ Houston, Tulane
Ball State.............Central Michigan, Buffalo
Kent State............@ Akron, Miami (O)
Florida Atlantic......@ Western Kentucky, @ Southern Miss
Wyoming..............@ Utah State, Hawaii
Georgia State........Arkansas State, Troy
MTSU.................. Old Dominion, @ Florida Atlantic


Teams with four wins (14):

West Virginia..........Texas, @ Kansas



Eligible: 62
Ineligible: 31
Undecided: 37

My predictions to make 6 wins - 17 teams

I wouldn't be shocked if 4-win Florida State sneaks in. As bad as the Noles have been, the Gators have been worse. Get past BC this week and it could happen. But then Florida would have to beat Mizzou this week or be left out.

What struck me when I first made this list was how many big names were on it.

(11-17-2021 02:10 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-17-2021 01:54 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 09:33 AM)ken d Wrote:  Tennessee...........South Alabama, Vanderbilt
Miami.................Virginia Tech, @ Duke
North Carolina.....Wofford, @ NC State
Florida................@ Missouri, Florida State
Louisville.............@ Duke, Kentucky
Washington St......Arizona, @ Washington
Maryland.............Michigan, @ Rutgers
South Carolina......Auburn, Clemson
Rutgers...............@ Penn State, Maryland
Memphis..............@ Houston, Tulane
Ball State.............Central Michigan, Buffalo
Kent State............@ Akron, Miami (O)
Florida Atlantic......@ Western Kentucky, @ Southern Miss
Wyoming..............@ Utah State, Hawaii
Georgia State........Arkansas State, Troy
MTSU.................. Old Dominion, @ Florida Atlantic


Teams with four wins (14):

West Virginia..........Texas, @ Kansas



Eligible: 62
Ineligible: 31
Undecided: 37

My predictions to make 6 wins - 17 teams

I wouldn't be shocked if 4-win Florida State sneaks in. As bad as the Noles have been, the Gators have been worse. Get past BC this week and it could happen. But then Florida would have to beat Mizzou this week or be left out.

What struck me when I first made this list was how many big names were on it.

Yup - gonna be a lot of unhappy bowls.

Another one bites the dust. Buffalo falls in OT for its 7th loss, while Ball State fails to get win #6 against CMU.

Got only 36 teams left to figure out and 20 needed. 14 teams have 6 losses, so it's gonna come down to the last 1-2 teams I think.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that Louisville will become #63 by beating Duke tonight.

(11-18-2021 09:31 PM)ken d Wrote:  I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that Louisville will become #63 by beating Duke tonight.

What a desultory game to be shown on a Thursday. Not sure why this was aired. I bet a few dozen are watching on TV.

(11-18-2021 09:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-18-2021 09:31 PM)ken d Wrote:  I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that Louisville will become #63 by beating Duke tonight.

What a desultory game to be shown on a Thursday. Not sure why this was aired. I bet a few dozen are watching on TV.

think preseason they might have expected roles to be reversed here.

Washington State makes 64.