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AAC Champoinship Game
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Post: #21
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-15-2021 08:19 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  I think we should all be a little nervous. SMU and UH are good teams. Even ECU is not terrible and we play them at ECU on senior night. Let's be honest, UC hasn't exactly played like an elite team of late. We are playing down to our opponents. Statistically I can't even understand how Friday's game was not a bigger blowout. UC held USF to under 3 yards per carry and held their QB to 50% completion with two INT's. I guess that's what happens with you have 3 turnovers and allow an 80 yard passing TD.

You've stumbled on something key. It's why the advanced stats still love this team and why Vegas still has us as the 4th or 5th best team (behind Georgia/Bama/OSU who have a pretty big gap from the rest and with Michigan). Even these games that scores don't indicate utter dominance, the relative success rates do. Using SP+ UC has had a 99% or higher post game win expectancy in all but 2 games this year, including last week against USF. UC dominated.

Vegas has similar data they look at when setting lines. They know there is randomness to final scores, but this kind of thing is better for evaluating future success. Despite the narrative that UC is struggling (and games that we didn't get as far away as we'd like) the numbers still suggest this is an elite team. The only two games UC wasn't 99%+ in post game win expectancy were Indiana (UC was 87%) and Tulsa (UC was 88%). I'm guessing only Georgia has been similar dominant post game win expectancies across the season.
 
(This post was last modified: 11-15-2021 10:21 AM by bearcatmark.)
11-15-2021 10:20 AM
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OKIcat Offline
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Post: #22
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-15-2021 09:22 AM)Edgebrookjeff Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 08:49 AM)Racinejake Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 08:34 AM)FLIP Wrote:  Or play prevent defense for an entire half.

Tale of 2 halves. Gave up under 40 yards in the 1st half and over 300 in the 2nd half. We didn't even force a punt in the 2nd half.

However, you could tell when USF came out in the 2nd half they had a different mindset and started running a lot of crossing plays, which are not easy to defend.

Yep. At halftime, I felt our defense had really shown some drive stopping ability we hadn't seen consistently in recent games. But the penalties were deflating and then the second half drives by the Bulls were worrisome. The one long score I just attributed to a breakdown and that happens. The scoring drive that went 98 yards when UC's offense couldn't finish at the goal line was demoralizing.

Then again, it was a 17 point win, with the final 7 points coming pretty much when victory was nearly clinched, just like in Bloomington in September.
 
11-15-2021 10:33 AM
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bcat1997 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-15-2021 10:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 08:19 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  I think we should all be a little nervous. SMU and UH are good teams. Even ECU is not terrible and we play them at ECU on senior night. Let's be honest, UC hasn't exactly played like an elite team of late. We are playing down to our opponents. Statistically I can't even understand how Friday's game was not a bigger blowout. UC held USF to under 3 yards per carry and held their QB to 50% completion with two INT's. I guess that's what happens with you have 3 turnovers and allow an 80 yard passing TD.

You've stumbled on something key. It's why the advanced stats still love this team and why Vegas still has us as the 4th or 5th best team (behind Georgia/Bama/OSU who have a pretty big gap from the rest and with Michigan). Even these games that scores don't indicate utter dominance, the relative success rates do. Using SP+ UC has had a 99% or higher post game win expectancy in all but 2 games this year, including last week against USF. UC dominated.

Vegas has similar data they look at when setting lines. They know there is randomness to final scores, but this kind of thing is better for evaluating future success. Despite the narrative that UC is struggling (and games that we didn't get as far away as we'd like) the numbers still suggest this is an elite team. The only two games UC wasn't 99%+ in post game win expectancy were Indiana (UC was 87%) and Tulsa (UC was 88%). I'm guessing only Georgia has been similar dominant post game win expectancies across the season.

I would guess Navy was lower as well, think they outgained us in yardage.
 
11-15-2021 10:34 AM
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Post: #24
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-15-2021 10:34 AM)bcat1997 Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 10:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 08:19 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  I think we should all be a little nervous. SMU and UH are good teams. Even ECU is not terrible and we play them at ECU on senior night. Let's be honest, UC hasn't exactly played like an elite team of late. We are playing down to our opponents. Statistically I can't even understand how Friday's game was not a bigger blowout. UC held USF to under 3 yards per carry and held their QB to 50% completion with two INT's. I guess that's what happens with you have 3 turnovers and allow an 80 yard passing TD.

You've stumbled on something key. It's why the advanced stats still love this team and why Vegas still has us as the 4th or 5th best team (behind Georgia/Bama/OSU who have a pretty big gap from the rest and with Michigan). Even these games that scores don't indicate utter dominance, the relative success rates do. Using SP+ UC has had a 99% or higher post game win expectancy in all but 2 games this year, including last week against USF. UC dominated.

Vegas has similar data they look at when setting lines. They know there is randomness to final scores, but this kind of thing is better for evaluating future success. Despite the narrative that UC is struggling (and games that we didn't get as far away as we'd like) the numbers still suggest this is an elite team. The only two games UC wasn't 99%+ in post game win expectancy were Indiana (UC was 87%) and Tulsa (UC was 88%). I'm guessing only Georgia has been similar dominant post game win expectancies across the season.

I would guess Navy was lower as well, think they outgained us in yardage.

Actually, UC's SP+ post game win expectancy against Navy rounded up was 100%
 
(This post was last modified: 11-15-2021 10:37 AM by bearcatmark.)
11-15-2021 10:36 AM
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Post: #25
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
Using Navy as a good example.

UC's had 5.16 YPP (really low for UC) to Navy's 3.89.

UC had a 50% success rate, and allowed Navy a 31% Success rate.

UC won the field position battle significantly starting at their own 40 on average v. Navy starting at their own 24.
 
11-15-2021 10:40 AM
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Edgebrookjeff Offline
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Post: #26
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
AT the Navy game, We were up by 2 scores in the 4th qtr, and they had an extended drive. I was more comfortable in that games outcome, than the last 3. That was only because you knew at some point NAVY would eventually have to start throwing the ball exclusively, and then they were doomed.
 
11-15-2021 10:51 AM
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Post: #27
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-15-2021 10:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 08:19 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  I think we should all be a little nervous. SMU and UH are good teams. Even ECU is not terrible and we play them at ECU on senior night. Let's be honest, UC hasn't exactly played like an elite team of late. We are playing down to our opponents. Statistically I can't even understand how Friday's game was not a bigger blowout. UC held USF to under 3 yards per carry and held their QB to 50% completion with two INT's. I guess that's what happens with you have 3 turnovers and allow an 80 yard passing TD.

You've stumbled on something key. It's why the advanced stats still love this team and why Vegas still has us as the 4th or 5th best team (behind Georgia/Bama/OSU who have a pretty big gap from the rest and with Michigan). Even these games that scores don't indicate utter dominance, the relative success rates do. Using SP+ UC has had a 99% or higher post game win expectancy in all but 2 games this year, including last week against USF. UC dominated.

Vegas has similar data they look at when setting lines. They know there is randomness to final scores, but this kind of thing is better for evaluating future success. Despite the narrative that UC is struggling (and games that we didn't get as far away as we'd like) the numbers still suggest this is an elite team. The only two games UC wasn't 99%+ in post game win expectancy were Indiana (UC was 87%) and Tulsa (UC was 88%). I'm guessing only Georgia has been similar dominant post game win expectancies across the season.

Point positive as to why I always tease huge favorites down 8-10 points. It's FAR more likely to hit than not, even on a 3-5 leg parlay (I'm at just over 72% hits so far this year through 11 weeks).
 
11-15-2021 11:39 AM
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RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-15-2021 11:39 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 10:20 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 08:19 AM)nachoman91 Wrote:  I think we should all be a little nervous. SMU and UH are good teams. Even ECU is not terrible and we play them at ECU on senior night. Let's be honest, UC hasn't exactly played like an elite team of late. We are playing down to our opponents. Statistically I can't even understand how Friday's game was not a bigger blowout. UC held USF to under 3 yards per carry and held their QB to 50% completion with two INT's. I guess that's what happens with you have 3 turnovers and allow an 80 yard passing TD.

You've stumbled on something key. It's why the advanced stats still love this team and why Vegas still has us as the 4th or 5th best team (behind Georgia/Bama/OSU who have a pretty big gap from the rest and with Michigan). Even these games that scores don't indicate utter dominance, the relative success rates do. Using SP+ UC has had a 99% or higher post game win expectancy in all but 2 games this year, including last week against USF. UC dominated.

Vegas has similar data they look at when setting lines. They know there is randomness to final scores, but this kind of thing is better for evaluating future success. Despite the narrative that UC is struggling (and games that we didn't get as far away as we'd like) the numbers still suggest this is an elite team. The only two games UC wasn't 99%+ in post game win expectancy were Indiana (UC was 87%) and Tulsa (UC was 88%). I'm guessing only Georgia has been similar dominant post game win expectancies across the season.

Point positive as to why I always tease huge favorites down 8-10 points. It's FAR more likely to hit than not, even on a 3-5 leg parlay (I'm at just over 72% hits so far this year through 11 weeks).

Where can I subscribe to your newsletter?
 
11-15-2021 01:06 PM
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Post: #29
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-15-2021 10:40 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Using Navy as a good example.

UC's had 5.16 YPP (really low for UC) to Navy's 3.89.

UC had a 50% success rate, and allowed Navy a 31% Success rate.

UC won the field position battle significantly starting at their own 40 on average v. Navy starting at their own 24.

But...
TOP: 40/20
1st Downs: 22/14
Total Yds: 308/271
Turnovers: 1/1

They were ahead in all key metrics...6 point swing at end of half was big.
 
11-15-2021 01:53 PM
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Post: #30
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-15-2021 01:53 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 10:40 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Using Navy as a good example.

UC's had 5.16 YPP (really low for UC) to Navy's 3.89.

UC had a 50% success rate, and allowed Navy a 31% Success rate.

UC won the field position battle significantly starting at their own 40 on average v. Navy starting at their own 24.

But...
TOP: 40/20
1st Downs: 22/14
Total Yds: 308/271
Turnovers: 1/1

They were ahead in all key metrics...6 point swing at end of half was big.

Should've been ten too...Pace didn't step out.
 
11-15-2021 01:58 PM
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Post: #31
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
The only stat that really matter is points for wins.
 
11-15-2021 06:59 PM
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RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-15-2021 06:59 PM)doss2 Wrote:  The only stat that really matter is points for wins.

Maybe so looking back. But not necessarily when looking forward.
 
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Post: #33
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
Time of possession was mentioned in this thread with regard to the Navy game but it's really been an issue all season. Anyone else concerned that the UC defense is simply wearing out, running out of gas, or plagued by nagging injuries after logging so many minutes in the first ten games? I know we have some coaches on this board who will offer a more informed opinion than mine so I'm curious to learn more.

We'll take the wins, but from a Bearcat fan perspective that three game stretch of Navy, Tulane, and Tulsa was often brutal to watch as those teams were grinding out yards on the ground, converting 4th downs, and burning the clock to keep our offense off the field.
 
11-16-2021 07:54 AM
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Post: #34
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
I think the D goes conservative as in “prevent victory” mode. In this mode they bend a lot but have not yet broken. Once we get ahead 2 scores we simply back off - both on offense and defense.
 
11-16-2021 11:17 AM
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Post: #35
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-16-2021 07:54 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  Time of possession was mentioned in this thread with regard to the Navy game but it's really been an issue all season. Anyone else concerned that the UC defense is simply wearing out, running out of gas, or plagued by nagging injuries after logging so many minutes in the first ten games? I know we have some coaches on this board who will offer a more informed opinion than mine so I'm curious to learn more.

We'll take the wins, but from a Bearcat fan perspective that three game stretch of Navy, Tulane, and Tulsa was often brutal to watch as those teams were grinding out yards on the ground, converting 4th downs, and burning the clock to keep our offense off the field.

Since teams have started trying to control the clock running the ball, I think our defense has turned into the bend but don't break style, like what we saw 2 years ago against UCF. It is so hard to move the ball consistently with the pass on this group. I think we'll be ok on saturday, unless SMU's qb can hurt us with the run.
 
11-16-2021 11:56 AM
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Post: #36
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-16-2021 11:17 AM)Bcatbog Wrote:  I think the D goes conservative as in “prevent victory” mode. In this mode they bend a lot but have not yet broken. Once we get ahead 2 scores we simply back off - both on offense and defense.

It’s what Tresselball is all about. And you know what? It works a lot more than it doesn’t.
 
11-16-2021 01:27 PM
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RE: AAC Champoinship Game
If we play as well as we did against UCF, we'll win. If not, you win. It's as simple as that.
 
11-16-2021 02:00 PM
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RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-16-2021 02:00 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  If we play as well as we did against UCF, we'll win. If not, you win. It's as simple as that.

You meant to say "If the Bearcats LET you play as well as you did against UCF it will be a good game"

Just having fun 04-cheers04-cheers not trying to 05-stirthepot you've been very classy to this point
 
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2021 02:12 PM by Cal1362.)
11-16-2021 02:12 PM
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RE: AAC Champoinship Game
(11-16-2021 02:00 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  If we play as well as we did against UCF, we'll win. If not, you win. It's as simple as that.

We were 35-0 against UCF before I finished my first beer. I don't think it's as clear cut as you playing like you did against UCF.
 
11-16-2021 02:23 PM
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Post: #40
RE: AAC Champoinship Game
Do we have any idea what time the AAC championship game will be played on December 4?
 
11-21-2021 07:10 PM
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