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Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
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Edgebrookjeff Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
Home field advantage and a better defense against the pass. There's a reason that we're favored to win by double digits.
 
11-16-2021 11:28 AM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
We'll see
 
11-16-2021 11:32 AM
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BearcatMan Online
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Post: #63
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-16-2021 11:18 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  OK but look at this:

Points per game: SMU - 41.6, Cincinnati - 39.2
Yards per game: SMU - 498.7, Cincinnati - 418.7

Granted you have the home field advantage, but...........

Ok but look at this:

Points against per game: SMU 27.9, Cincinnati, 17.2
Yards against per game: SMU 423.9, Cincinnati 322.8

Granted you have the worse schedule, but...........

Using total stats in general are horrible indicators in and of themselves...analytics are showing quite a bit more separation that either of these sets of values because they take into factor how the games play out, not just the numbers at the end of them. Our primary scoring issue has been that we've had essentially 1/4 of the game to work with, and feel pressured to score TDs on EVERY drive because the clock gets killed by teams who decide they're going to run every play and go for it on nearly every 4th, thus only needing 2.5 ypp...that's also NOT something that is going to happen against a passing team like SMU.

Look at Net Points per Drive:
Cincinnati is 5th
SMU is 19th

How about Offensive Points per Drive:
SMU is 9th
Cincinnati 10th

Defensive Points per Drive:
Cincinnati is 9th
SMU is 63rd
 
(This post was last modified: 11-16-2021 12:19 PM by BearcatMan.)
11-16-2021 12:11 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
Granted if it's a defensive battle you probably have the advantage, but if it's a shootout, all bets are off.
 
11-16-2021 12:23 PM
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BearcatMan Online
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Post: #65
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-16-2021 12:23 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Granted if it's a defensive battle you probably have the advantage, but if it's a shootout, all bets are off.

I guess the argument is similar to what we argued last year...it doesn't have to be one or the other. If our defense is able to play like they have all year against the pass (and last year against you all with a similar team), and yours plays the way it has all year...it likely wouldn't be a two way shootout. I trust our defense far more than our offense, yes, but our offense is playing against an average to below-average defense, while yours has to play against one of the best defenses in the country statistically.
 
11-16-2021 12:35 PM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-16-2021 12:23 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Granted if it's a defensive battle you probably have the advantage, but if it's a shootout, all bets are off.

A shootout versus the UC secondary?
 
11-16-2021 12:47 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-16-2021 12:35 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(11-16-2021 12:23 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Granted if it's a defensive battle you probably have the advantage, but if it's a shootout, all bets are off.

I guess the argument is similar to what we argued last year...it doesn't have to be one or the other. If our defense is able to play like they have all year against the pass (and last year against you all with a similar team), and yours plays the way it has all year...it likely wouldn't be a two way shootout. I trust our defense far more than our offense, yes, but our offense is playing against an average to below-average defense, while yours has to play against one of the best defenses in the country statistically.

That's very debatable. Firstly we are much deeper than we were last year. Secondly, our defensive stats are not great, but we have played very well at times. Expect a much tougher game than last year.
 
11-16-2021 02:28 PM
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BearcatMan Online
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Post: #68
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-16-2021 02:28 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(11-16-2021 12:35 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(11-16-2021 12:23 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Granted if it's a defensive battle you probably have the advantage, but if it's a shootout, all bets are off.

I guess the argument is similar to what we argued last year...it doesn't have to be one or the other. If our defense is able to play like they have all year against the pass (and last year against you all with a similar team), and yours plays the way it has all year...it likely wouldn't be a two way shootout. I trust our defense far more than our offense, yes, but our offense is playing against an average to below-average defense, while yours has to play against one of the best defenses in the country statistically.

That's very debatable. Firstly we are much deeper than we were last year. Secondly, our defensive stats are not great, but we have played very well at times. Expect a much tougher game than last year.

I don't think anyone is expecting it to be that easy.
 
11-16-2021 03:59 PM
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ZCat Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-16-2021 09:17 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(11-15-2021 05:25 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  Have to stop playing conservative on both sides of the ball when we get up a couple of scores. That has plagued us in all of these last 4 games. Yes, we may give a big play or turn the ball over by playing more aggressive, but it's worth it. The conservative style leads to points as well, just over more time.

Be careful, if you get into a shootout with SMU, chances are you will lose.

Thanks for stopping by! Wish you guys nothing but the best, except on Saturday.
 
11-16-2021 11:38 PM
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doss2 Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
SMU home beat UCF by 27 we won home by 35
SMU home beat Tulane by 29 we won away by 19
SMU away beat Navy by 7 we won away by 7
SMU home beat USF by 24 we won away by 17

I read that home was generally worth 3 points, I always thought it was more.

Expect a close game.
 
11-17-2021 01:08 PM
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UCBearcatlawjd2 Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-17-2021 01:08 PM)doss2 Wrote:  SMU home beat UCF by 27 we won home by 35
SMU home beat Tulane by 29 we won away by 19
SMU away beat Navy by 7 we won away by 7
SMU home beat USF by 24 we won away by 17

I read that home was generally worth 3 points, I always thought it was more.

Expect a close game.

They also lost to Houston and Memphis on the road.
 
11-17-2021 01:21 PM
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doss2 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-17-2021 01:21 PM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  
(11-17-2021 01:08 PM)doss2 Wrote:  SMU home beat UCF by 27 we won home by 35
SMU home beat Tulane by 29 we won away by 19
SMU away beat Navy by 7 we won away by 7
SMU home beat USF by 24 we won away by 17

I read that home was generally worth 3 points, I always thought it was more.

Expect a close game.

They also lost to Houston and Memphis on the road.

True but we have not played either Memphis or UH. We beat Temple and Tulsa.
 
11-17-2021 01:35 PM
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rtaylor Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
I feel like this is the exact same conversation with the same poster from last year.
 
11-17-2021 06:18 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
We're going to kick SMU's ass. Senior Day in the Nip.


 
11-17-2021 08:05 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
Scoring Offense FBS
SMU 41.6 [6th]
UC 39.2 [9th]

Scoring Defense FBS
UC 16.2 [6th]
SMU 25.9 [64th]
 
11-17-2021 08:16 PM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-14-2021 04:58 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  
(11-14-2021 03:43 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(11-14-2021 03:02 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  
(11-14-2021 02:55 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  FWIW, Vegas’ line opened with UC giving 15.

More candy

We're covering this week.

Easy money betting on UC to cover this week.

Got one right for a change.
 
11-20-2021 07:07 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-17-2021 08:05 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  We're going to kick SMU's ass. Senior Day in the Nip.

Me too Bruce.
 
11-20-2021 07:12 PM
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Nobones Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-16-2021 02:28 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(11-16-2021 12:35 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(11-16-2021 12:23 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Granted if it's a defensive battle you probably have the advantage, but if it's a shootout, all bets are off.

I guess the argument is similar to what we argued last year...it doesn't have to be one or the other. If our defense is able to play like they have all year against the pass (and last year against you all with a similar team), and yours plays the way it has all year...it likely wouldn't be a two way shootout. I trust our defense far more than our offense, yes, but our offense is playing against an average to below-average defense, while yours has to play against one of the best defenses in the country statistically.

That's very debatable. Firstly we are much deeper than we were last year. Secondly, our defensive stats are not great, but we have played very well at times. Expect a much tougher game than last year.

So this guys posts did not age well. 04-cheers
 
11-20-2021 07:14 PM
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Racinejake Offline
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Post: #79
RE: Name the UC score v SMU (aka Pony Excess)
(11-20-2021 07:14 PM)Nobones Wrote:  
(11-16-2021 02:28 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(11-16-2021 12:35 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(11-16-2021 12:23 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  Granted if it's a defensive battle you probably have the advantage, but if it's a shootout, all bets are off.

I guess the argument is similar to what we argued last year...it doesn't have to be one or the other. If our defense is able to play like they have all year against the pass (and last year against you all with a similar team), and yours plays the way it has all year...it likely wouldn't be a two way shootout. I trust our defense far more than our offense, yes, but our offense is playing against an average to below-average defense, while yours has to play against one of the best defenses in the country statistically.

That's very debatable. Firstly we are much deeper than we were last year. Secondly, our defensive stats are not great, but we have played very well at times. Expect a much tougher game than last year.

So this guys posts did not age well. 04-cheers

I'm sure he was just trolling. No way he really thought they'd hang.
 
11-20-2021 07:37 PM
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