I decided I would like to have a separate thread for this, instead of searching the other threads for your thoughts. Discuss …

Not a chance.

(11-13-2021 10:54 PM)LeadBolt Wrote:  Not a chance.

Perhaps if every other bubble team loses next weekend and we curb-stomp UR like they curb-stomped Delaware today.

Can’t see that happening.

Have to agree that a playoff spot is highly unlikely. Three major things would have to happen:

1. W&M would have to beat Richmond. Hardly a sure thing.

2. Rhode Island would have to lose to Elon -- because only 3 CAA teams are getting in AT THE MOST. If we beat UR and URI loses then W&M would be the third best CAA team at 7-4 and with a 5-3 CAA record (Rhody would be 4-4 in the CAA).

3. Unfortunately, to ensure that 3 CAA teams get in, a whole bunch of other teams need to lose. I count 26 teams that could/should make the playoffs but unfortunately only 24 teams are invited. I see:

Big Sky gets 5
MVFC gets 5
CAA gets 3
SoCon gets 3
AQ7 gets 2
Southland gets 2
Big South gets 2
NEC, Ohio Valley, Patriot, and Pioneer each get 1.

The only leagues likely to lose a spot (besides the CAA) would be one from the MVFC (from 5 slots down to 4), 1 from the Big South (but only if Monmouth loses), and 1 from the SoCon (from 3 slots down to 2).

For those things to happen, we need:

Kennesaw St. to beat Monmouth
ETSU to beat Mercer
Citadel to beat Chattanooga
Western Carolina to beat VMI
North Dakota State to beat South Dakota
Jax St. to beat Eastern Kentucky (and even that could be dangerous because Jax beat Florida State)
Colgate to beat Fordham (wouldn't hurt)

So it seems obvious that not all of those results are going to happen. Plus, I repeat, W&M needs to beat Richmond which is probably the hardest of all those possibilities.

EDIT: W&M brought this on themselves by losing to Maine and Delaware. Plus, today was a winnable game (unfortunately, I don't think Mike London ever thought so....or else he wouldn't have started a QB who hadn't played in 8 weeks).

No way.

This team is playing at a very high level in a large part due to the enthusiasm that Coach London has brought to the program.

Unfortunately some of London’s decisions in the last two games had hurt us.

Richmond comes in with a 3 game winning record and total beat down of Delaware 51-27.


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Agree on both of your points on London, but both are known London traits. He has always been known as a "players coach", and has also been known as "sometimes squirrely" on game management.

The thread question assumes we beat Richmond so not going to qualify on that. I do think we win though.

If we finish 3rd in the CAA, I think our chances are 50/50. The league has two teams in the top ten. We beat one of them and gave the other one a full game. I think that will top a potential tie with URI (though I think Elon wins).

I also don’t think the Commission would dock the CAA to just two teams. Not sure if that has ever happened. They also look for first round match-ups and they will need some representation in the East.

We are ranked 25th which I think will stick or slightly improve given the competitive JMU game (judges look at score and stats). That means someone below us would have to jump us to get the spot.

Think you have to beat Richmond pretty handily, with help. Donavyn Lester did say he’ll be back next week, that’s a huge deal.

(11-14-2021 09:04 AM)TribePride52 Wrote:  Think you have to beat Richmond pretty handily, with help. Donavyn Lester did say he’ll be back next week, that’s a huge deal.

And Richmond has a big, experienced QB who can run some. Have to tackle him.

They are solid against the run. If they stop our run........

A little surprised how bearish this thread is. If we beat Richmond, and that's a big if, I think we're on the right side of the bubble.

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(11-14-2021 02:49 PM)zablenoise Wrote:  A little surprised how bearish this thread is. If we beat Richmond, and that's a big if, I think we're on the right side of the bubble.

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Many forecasters give us a low chance. Of the 24 bids there is common agreement on who should get 22 of the bids. That leaves us competing with a bunch of conferences and teams for the last two bids.

Upon reflection, if Nova wins out then they are our AQ and Nova would argue to be seeded over JMU which does help us if that line of reasoning prevails.

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa-...ojections/

This latest prediction has us as the first team out. I think that presumes us winning over Richmond and still missing out. But, we are squarely on the bubble if we can win. Will try and look on Wednesday or Thursday to see what teams are close but in the field that would need to lose.

Beating Richmond is the only part the Tribe can control and that will be hard enough.

Need Elon to beat Rhode Island and Kennesaw to beat Monmouth.

(11-15-2021 09:40 AM)Tribe4SF Wrote:  Need Elon to beat Rhode Island and Kennesaw to beat Monmouth.

Elon should beat Rhody. That Kennesaw v Monmouth game should be exceptional. Kennesaw is at the top of the Big South but Monmouth can score in bunches.


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(11-15-2021 10:10 AM)Tribal Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 09:40 AM)Tribe4SF Wrote:  Need Elon to beat Rhode Island and Kennesaw to beat Monmouth.

Elon should beat Rhody. That Kennesaw v Monmouth game should be exceptional. Kennesaw is at the top of the Big South but Monmouth can score in bunches.

It would be ironic if a Monmouth win knocked W&M out of the playoffs and Owen Wright scored the decisive points.

Beating Richmond to end the season and then reach the playoffs from the bubble has been a tall task.

In 2008, we lost in OT. Missed the playoffs and then watched Richmond and our current coach win the National Title.

In 2013, we had a shot to make the playoffs, but lost to a 6-6 Richmond team, 31-20.

In 2014, in a win or go home national game, the Spiders beat us 34-20.

In 2015, our last playoff appearance, the Spiders beat us twice, 20-9 to close the regular season and cost us the outright CAA title, and 48-13 in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

And even in 2009, one of the best Tribe teams ever, lost at Richmond 13-10, costing us the CAA title and probably a home game in the playoffs in the late rounds.

So that is 5 times in the last 15 years when we had a playoff quality team and they either damaged or crushed those hopes. Let's beat the Spiders with an inspired, disciplined effort Saturday and then see if it merits a playoff bid.

Other than the 41-3 drubbing of the Spiders in 2010, we haven't won a single meaningful game against them in 15 years. We only have 4 wins against them since 2005. 4-14 including the 2015 playoff loss. Time to change that trend Saturday!

(11-15-2021 10:35 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  In 2008, we lost in OT. Missed the playoffs and then watched Richmond and our current coach win the National Title.

I put an asterisk by this one. A bad call on a fumble in OT cost us that game. There was no official replay (television replays clearly showed that the receiver's knee was down (for a first down) before the ball came out).

(11-15-2021 09:19 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  https://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa-...ojections/

This latest prediction has us as the first team out. I think that presumes us winning over Richmond and still missing out. But, we are squarely on the bubble if we can win. Will try and look on Wednesday or Thursday to see what teams are close but in the field that would need to lose.

Beating Richmond is the only part the Tribe can control and that will be hard enough.

Good link, shows RI getting into playoffs from CAA and W&M first team out. This site only has ETSU from the Southern Conference in playoffs while ignoring completely Mercer who is playing ETSU for the conference title on Saturday. Mercer should be in front of VMI in the article. Mercer will be get in before us if they have a competitive game against ETSU and lose.

Also think Western Conference will get SFA (if they win on Saturday) at 8-3 in front of us at 7-4 but our win at Nova maybe a plus if Nova gets the #4 seed over JMU.

Last weeks polls for STATS still show Tribe at #25 with Mercer at #26 and SFA at #27.

Coaches poll from today has Mercer at #23 and SFA at #22 and W&M tied at #33.

link to polls today:

Coaches poll:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...aches-poll

AGS poll:

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthr...ek-11-2021

(11-15-2021 12:12 PM)wmmii Wrote:  

(11-15-2021 09:19 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  https://www.dratings.com/predictor/ncaa-...ojections/

This latest prediction has us as the first team out. I think that presumes us winning over Richmond and still missing out. But, we are squarely on the bubble if we can win. Will try and look on Wednesday or Thursday to see what teams are close but in the field that would need to lose.

Beating Richmond is the only part the Tribe can control and that will be hard enough.

Good link, shows RI getting into playoffs from CAA and W&M first team out. This site only has ETSU from the Southern Conference in playoffs while ignoring completely Mercer who is playing ETSU for the conference title on Saturday. Mercer should be in front of VMI in the article. Mercer will be get in before us if they have a competitive game against ETSU and lose.

Also think Western Conference will get SFA (if they win on Saturday) at 8-3 in front of us at 7-4 but our win at Nova maybe a plus if Nova gets the #4 seed over JMU.

Last weeks polls for STATS still show Tribe at #25 with Mercer at #26 and SFA at #27.

Coaches poll from today has Mercer at #23 and SFA at #22 and W&M tied at #33.

Sadly, I think the best argument for the Tribe getting in is historical precedence which might not matter much. No way is the CAA getting 4 teams in though. So Rhode Island has to lose. All the games that need to break the Tribe's way kickoff before 330 though. The Monmouth, Rhode Island and Mercer all kickoff by 2PM. Could I see the committee leaving out a 7-4 W&M and 7-4 Rhode Island? Unsure. 8 at large bids going to the MVC and Big Sky make it hard for any other conference. JMU is getting one of those bids. So, that only leaves 4 more. Southland is going to get 1 at large as well.