(02-11-2022 11:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-11-2022 11:48 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(02-11-2022 11:39 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-11-2022 11:33 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  SBC is the biggest winner since they've moved from being slightly ahead of CUSA to arguably the number 2 conference behind the MWC.

That I would agree with 100%. And with 14 teams a much easier path to have a CCG with teams that have 0-1 losses to get the G5 spot.

I'm not sure about that as the SBC is going to be deeper and more competitive.

SBC in many ways now has more mature programs than the AAC. SoMiss and Marshall have deep traditions at this level. ODU/JMU have good fanbases. AAC going with the likes of UTSA, Charlotte, FAU are rolling the dice like CUSA 3.0 did on them.

But the point is that with only 2 crossover games instead of 3, gives the division champion a lot greater shot not having faced the other division champion. Could easily have both division champs with only like 1 conference loss. That doesn't happen anywhere near as often in the MWC due to the extra crossover game.

Never thought of that angle.

(02-11-2022 11:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  But the point is that with only 2 crossover games instead of 3, gives the division champion a lot greater shot not having faced the other division champion. Could easily have both division champs with only like 1 conference loss. That doesn't happen anywhere near as often in the MWC due to the extra crossover game.

Right, here's the math, if a conference has two divisions and no "permanent crosssover" football games:

-- 12 teams, 8 conference games = 50% chance, on average, that the CCG is a rematch
-- 14 teams, 8 conference games = 29% chance of a rematch
-- 16 teams, 8 conference games = 13% chance of a rematch

-- 12 teams, 9 conference games = 75% chance of a rematch
-- 14 teams, 9 conference games = 43% chance of a rematch
-- 16 teams, 9 conference games = 25% chance of a rematch

Which means getting rid of divisions would be beneficial.

(02-11-2022 01:26 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Which means getting rid of divisions would be beneficial.

I think that would just increase the chance of a rematch in the title game.

(02-11-2022 01:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-11-2022 01:26 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Which means getting rid of divisions would be beneficial.

I think that would just increase the chance of a rematch in the title game.

Not really - the team that lost would be behind the 8-ball. And even if a rematch, the teams would have better records.

Regardless of set up, you have the same number of losses to spread out over the teams.

Yes, with no divisions and a CCG, the probability of a CCG rematch is higher. For example, with 14 teams and 8 conference games, and if each team theoretically has an equal chance of finishing 1st or 2nd, the rematch probability is 8/13 = 62%. It goes up to 69% if they play 9 conference games.

(02-11-2022 03:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Yes, with no divisions and a CCG, the probability of a CCG rematch is higher. For example, with 14 teams and 8 conference games, and if each team theoretically has an equal chance of finishing 1st or 2nd, the rematch probability is 8/13 = 62%. It goes up to 69% if they play 9 conference games.

The question isn't so much the rematch, but the record.

With divisions you have a much greater chance of a two-three loss team in the CCG.

Again, the same number of losses per team have to be spread around a 12 or 14 team league if they are playing the same number of conference games.


Rematch isn't the issue. The records are.

(02-11-2022 01:00 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(02-11-2022 11:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  But the point is that with only 2 crossover games instead of 3, gives the division champion a lot greater shot not having faced the other division champion. Could easily have both division champs with only like 1 conference loss. That doesn't happen anywhere near as often in the MWC due to the extra crossover game.

Right, here's the math, if a conference has two divisions and no "permanent crosssover" football games:

-- 12 teams, 8 conference games = 50% chance, on average, that the CCG is a rematch
-- 14 teams, 8 conference games = 29% chance of a rematch
-- 16 teams, 8 conference games = 13% chance of a rematch

-- 12 teams, 9 conference games = 75% chance of a rematch
-- 14 teams, 9 conference games = 43% chance of a rematch
-- 16 teams, 9 conference games = 25% chance of a rematch

If the two best teams played a regular season cross-over it reduces the chances that the lose of that game will be the division winner.

.

The whole topic of CUSA divisions and crossover games would be very meaningful if the conference had more than 9 or 10 teams.

Unfortunately, since every team in the CUSA will play 8 CUSA teams per year, they would play 4 divisional games and 4 crossover games each year, so this part of the discussion becomes more or less moot.

.