I honestly think things may work out. Ohio State still has games vs Michigan State and Michigan. That should knock 2 out of 3 around Cincinnati. That's not counting what happens in the Big Ten championship game. Oregon needs to win out also and hope Ohio State doesn't lose to both Michigan State and Michigan. Georgia and Alabama meet most likely in the SEC championship game. Assuming both teams win out I think both are almost guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. Georgia should have a easier schedule for a undefeated year.

(11-02-2021 09:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 08:04 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  This board is full of the reasons college football has already peaked & is dying, especially conference realignment destroying rivalries without creating enough new ones.

It appears from this week's rankings that the CFP Board actively wants to kill the sport:


1. How can Alabama be #2 with a loss? It's not possible that Alabama is the clear #2 team.

(SNIP)

Oregon sticks out like a sore thumb, but other than that, they hewed very closely to the computer rankings, such as the Massey Composite, which has Georgia and Alabama at #1 and #2.

ranking school (Massey composite)
3. Michigan St. (6)
4. Oregon (15)
5. Ohio St. (3)
6. Cincinnati (5)
7. Michigan (4)
8. Oklahoma (7)
9. Wake Forest (9)
10. Notre Dame (8)
11. Oklahoma St. (10)
12. Baylor (11)
13. Auburn (12)
14. Texas A&M (17)
15. BYU (19)
16. Ole Miss (14)
17. MS St. (35)
18. Kentucky (21)
19. NC St. (25)
20. Minnesota (23)
21. Wisconsin (16)
22. Iowa (13)
23. Fresno St. (39)
24. San Diego St. (33)
25. Pitt (20)

Unranked
Penn St. (18)
UTSA (22)
Iowa St. (24)

Ranked ahead of Fresno, in order, Utah, Houston, Arkansas, Texas, Purdue, Clemson, KSU, SDSU, Florida, MS St., SMU, Coastal Carolina, App. St.

(11-02-2021 08:51 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 08:07 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Think they got it right though. I don’t see how UC can feel disrespected when they are ahead of WF and OU.

We just have an Armageddon scenario brewing with the number of teams in the mix such that every Saturday is must watch. It’s why CFB is still a national sport (despite the southeast bias in recent years).

I see your point - Rutgers has accomplished absolutely nothing in 150 years of college football but still was promoted to the second best conference in order to screw millions of cable viewers that watch Lifetime, Discovery, etc. along with screwing New Jersey taxpayers with hidden loans to cover massive losses. Makes sense that you think they got it right.

Bwahaha. The truest statement in the thread. Talk about failing up. I've made fun of that fact just today, and a mouthy St Johns fan mocking CUSA potential media deals got schooled on what a leach that school is with their big conference payout despite no tourney wins in over 20 years.

Its dumb luck all puffed up like its talent.

Talk about overreacting.

Theres still so many games left to be played and a few more weeks of CFP polls to be released.

The AP and coaches polls are whats wrong with CFB. Worthless and useless.

(11-02-2021 09:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 09:02 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I would agree that there needs to be a computer component. But how do you weight that? If it’s a 50/50 weight who would break the tie? Do you have have multiple algorithms and then weight the computer 66/34? I don’t know what the right weighting should be, or what the best computer model should be.

Have 6 guaranteed slots for conference champions. Then the rankings only matter at the margins.

I think the 2:1 human:computer ratio of the BCS was fine. The humans will be slowly tugged toward aligning with the computer rankings anyway and giving us (the humans) a higher weight will let us feel like we are still superior to them (the computers).

True about limiting the scope of the rankings. But the last at large (whether #4 vs. #5 or #11 vs. #12) will still be close most years. Yet another plug opportunity for my 6+3, where final rankings will only determine the best 6 champs and just 1 at large spot.

CFP Rankings History (or, why the only ranking that means anything is the last one):

2014
First Top 4: 1) Mississippi St, 2) Florida St, 3) Auburn, 4) Mississippi
Final Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Oregon, 3) Florida St, 4) Ohio St
# Schools Reach Top 4: 8 (including TCU)
First to Final School Differences: 3/4 different

2015
First Top 4: 1) Clemson, 2) LSU, 3) Ohio St, 4) Alabama
Final Top 4: 1) Clemson, 2) Alabama, 3) Michigan St, 4) Oklahoma
# Schools Reach Top 4: 8 (including Iowa, Notre Dame)
First to Final School Differences: 2/4 different

2016
First Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) Michigan, 4) Texas A&M
Final Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) Ohio St, 4) Washington
# Schools Reach Top 4: 6
First to Final School Differences: 2/4 different

2017
First Top 4: 1) Georgia, 2) Alabama, 3) Notre Dame, 4) Clemson
Final Top 4: 1) Clemson, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Georgia, 4) Alabama
# Schools Reach Top 4: 8 (including Miami FL, Notre Dame, Wisconsin)
First to Final School Differences: 1/4 different

2018
First Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) LSU, 4) Notre Dame
Final Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) Notre Dame, 4) Oklahoma
# Schools Reach Top 4: 8 (including Georgia, Michigan)
First to Final School Differences: 1/4 different

2019
First Top 4: 1) Ohio St, 2) LSU, 3) Alabama, 4) Penn St
Final Top 4: 1) LSU, 2) Ohio St, 3) Clemson, 4) Oklahoma
# Schools Reach Top 4: 7 (including Georgia)
First to Final School Differences: 2/4 different

2020
First Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Notre Dame, 3) Clemson, 4) Ohio St
Final Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) Ohio St, 4) Notre Dame
# Schools Reach Top 4: 4
First to Final School Differences: None (same 4 schools)

---

On average, 7 schools find their way into the CFP Top 4. We should expect 1-2 schools not in the Top 4 to finish in the Top 4. With this information, my guess is Cincinnati, Ohio St, and Oklahoma find their way into the Top 4 at some point. I suspect Michigan St and Oregon will lay an egg at some point and Alabama will finish 11-2 (losing the SEC CCG). The final rankings:
1) Georgia (13-0, SEC Champion)
2) Ohio St (12-1, B1G Champion)
3) Alabama (11-2, SEC Runner-Up)
4) Oklahoma (13-0, XII Champion)
---
5) Cincinnati (13-0, AAC Champion)
6) Oregon (11-2, PAC Champion)

(11-02-2021 09:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ^13-0 Wake Forest could be that other team.

True. However, I would prefer it be an undefeated OU, as that would look, on a paper, like a more impressive win for UC than a win over Wake (and I say that with tremendous respect for WFU, as I would be pleased to see the underdog Demon Deacons make the playoffs).

Of course, this will all be moot if Cincy loses.

(11-02-2021 10:07 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 09:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ^13-0 Wake Forest could be that other team.

True. However, I would prefer it be an undefeated OU, as that would look, on a paper, like a more impressive win for UC than a win over Wake (and I say that with tremendous respect for WFU, as I would be pleased to see the underdog Demon Deacons make the playoffs).

Of course, this will all be moot if Cincy loses.

Bill, check out this music video - - their style of music making is similar to that of Larkin Poe - - let me know if you see it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRipadkd6wk

If the NFL did this:

1) Teams would only play 12 games, and in most cases would not have any common opponents.
2) Some teams would have a schedule such that they have no chance to play in the Superbowl.
3) After 12 games, a very small group of people would take a vote on which 2 teams belong in the Superbowl, regardless of record.
4) Those 2 teams would play the Superbowl to win it all.

(11-02-2021 10:07 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 09:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ^13-0 Wake Forest could be that other team.

True. However, I would prefer it be an undefeated OU, as that would look, on a paper, like a more impressive win for UC than a win over Wake (and I say that with tremendous respect for WFU, as I would be pleased to see the underdog Demon Deacons make the playoffs).

Of course, this will all be moot if Cincy loses.

Undefeated OU would be better, but Cincinnati can't get into the Sugar Bowl to play them. Maybe a 12-1 MSU who beat Ohio State yet lost to Minnesota would fit the bill of playoff-snubbed. Or, Georgia losing to Auburn in a rematch and somehow ending up #5? Michigan could go 11-1, beat Ohio State, but fail to make the Big Ten Championship and playoff (the West Champ would still need to win the BT, to take the Rose spot). 12-1 Oklahoma, losing in the XII Championship, is not a bad opponent.

(11-02-2021 10:59 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 10:07 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 09:30 PM)Crayton Wrote:  ^13-0 Wake Forest could be that other team.

True. However, I would prefer it be an undefeated OU, as that would look, on a paper, like a more impressive win for UC than a win over Wake (and I say that with tremendous respect for WFU, as I would be pleased to see the underdog Demon Deacons make the playoffs).

Of course, this will all be moot if Cincy loses.

Bill, check out this music video - - their style of music making is similar to that of Larkin Poe - - let me know if you see it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRipadkd6wk

Oh, yes. TTB is outstanding. I've never been a big fan but I hugely respect. And, yes, there are some similarities between Tedeschi Trucks Band and Larkin Poe.

Good music, Milwaukee. Thanks!

(11-02-2021 11:09 PM)NIU007 Wrote:  If the NFL did this:

1) Teams would only play 12 games, and in most cases would not have any common opponents.
2) Some teams would have a schedule such that they have no chance to play in the Superbowl.
3) After 12 games, a very small group of people would take a vote on which 2 teams belong in the Superbowl, regardless of record.
4) Those 2 teams would play the Superbowl to win it all.

For so many decades we had the bowl system. Not even a semi-playoff. Just random exhibitions. Then AP or coaches voted on a champion after these exhibitions. What a croc!

Then we had the bowl coalition. That was still kind of worthless since I think a couple conferences werent even part of it.

BCS was a step up. Much better than any previous system.

This system is a bit better than the BCS.

We will soon get 8 or 12 teams.

(11-02-2021 08:04 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  This board is full of the reasons college football has already peaked & is dying, especially conference realignment destroying rivalries without creating enough new ones.

It appears from this week's rankings that the CFP Board actively wants to kill the sport:


1. How can Alabama be #2 with a loss? It's not possible that Alabama is the clear #2 team. Who cares that many players will play in the NFL - Alabama should be punished for losing with such great talent - coaches must suck!
2. Oregon lost to a bad team from an almost Ivy League school - can't be #3
3. Ohio State lost - at least they are behind Oregon
4. If Cincinnati isn't eligible due to conference affiliation, just state that before the season starts. Don't say beating Notre Dame on the road is the second best win in college football this year but that is negated by only beating Navy by 7. Why is Oregon's great win not negated by losing to Stanford?
5. Oklahoma at #8? Is the point to win to game or not?

No wonder the NFL crushes college football in attention & ratings. The old bowl system was better than this mess - a bunch of good ole boys from the hollers are destroying this once fun sport.

They are setting it up so a 2 loss team from either the Big10 or the SEC can make it in. Let the season play out. Cincy has a good shot. Cincy is positioned above the ACC and the Big12 this year.

Decline? C’mon. Only someone who started following this sport in the last few years could think this is something new or recent.

Hell, I can even give you an example from before I was old enough to follow this sport. Ask Arizona State about the 1975 season. More recently, ask Utah about 2008 or ask UCF about 2017.

Recognition of “non-power” teams is better than it was way back when. Nowhere near perfect. A Cincinnati fan today probably thinks it’s not nearly enough. Cincinnati’s win at Notre Dame is the second-best win of the whole season (Oregon’s win at Ohio State is first), and they should get more credit for it from the committee.

But if you think things were better for underdogs in “the old days”, that is very far from accurate.

System I’d be fine with: all 10 conference champs play in a designated bowl, UNLESS they’re the #2 team. Opponents in the other bowls filled by at-large teams.

(11-02-2021 10:06 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  CFP Rankings History (or, why the only ranking that means anything is the last one):

2014
First Top 4: 1) Mississippi St, 2) Florida St, 3) Auburn, 4) Mississippi
Final Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Oregon, 3) Florida St, 4) Ohio St
# Schools Reach Top 4: 8 (including TCU)
First to Final School Differences: 3/4 different

2015
First Top 4: 1) Clemson, 2) LSU, 3) Ohio St, 4) Alabama
Final Top 4: 1) Clemson, 2) Alabama, 3) Michigan St, 4) Oklahoma
# Schools Reach Top 4: 8 (including Iowa, Notre Dame)
First to Final School Differences: 2/4 different

2016
First Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) Michigan, 4) Texas A&M
Final Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) Ohio St, 4) Washington
# Schools Reach Top 4: 6
First to Final School Differences: 2/4 different

2017
First Top 4: 1) Georgia, 2) Alabama, 3) Notre Dame, 4) Clemson
Final Top 4: 1) Clemson, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Georgia, 4) Alabama
# Schools Reach Top 4: 8 (including Miami FL, Notre Dame, Wisconsin)
First to Final School Differences: 1/4 different

2018
First Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) LSU, 4) Notre Dame
Final Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) Notre Dame, 4) Oklahoma
# Schools Reach Top 4: 8 (including Georgia, Michigan)
First to Final School Differences: 1/4 different

2019
First Top 4: 1) Ohio St, 2) LSU, 3) Alabama, 4) Penn St
Final Top 4: 1) LSU, 2) Ohio St, 3) Clemson, 4) Oklahoma
# Schools Reach Top 4: 7 (including Georgia)
First to Final School Differences: 2/4 different

2020
First Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Notre Dame, 3) Clemson, 4) Ohio St
Final Top 4: 1) Alabama, 2) Clemson, 3) Ohio St, 4) Notre Dame
# Schools Reach Top 4: 4
First to Final School Differences: None (same 4 schools)

---

On average, 7 schools find their way into the CFP Top 4. We should expect 1-2 schools not in the Top 4 to finish in the Top 4. With this information, my guess is Cincinnati, Ohio St, and Oklahoma find their way into the Top 4 at some point. I suspect Michigan St and Oregon will lay an egg at some point and Alabama will finish 11-2 (losing the SEC CCG). The final rankings:
1) Georgia (13-0, SEC Champion)
2) Ohio St (12-1, B1G Champion)
3) Alabama (11-2, SEC Runner-Up)
4) Oklahoma (13-0, XII Champion)
---
5) Cincinnati (13-0, AAC Champion)
6) Oregon (11-2, PAC Champion)

I think Cincy would probably get in at #4 over a two-loss Alabama, but an 11-1 Michigan State team could jump them both.

I knew UC's chance was over when SMU and Houston were left out of the 25.

After that I expected to see UC ranked anywhere from 7-10.

It will be a steady decline for UC the rest of the season, no matter if the Bearcats win the rest of their games.

A G5 team will never be in the playoffs in this current format.

Looks like another year of declining tv ratings for the same old teams every year.

Time to end this crap, just go back to bowls.

(11-02-2021 08:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 08:04 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  This board is full of the reasons college football has already peaked & is dying, especially conference realignment destroying rivalries without creating enough new ones.

It appears from this week's rankings that the CFP Board actively wants to kill the sport:


1. How can Alabama be #2 with a loss? It's not possible that Alabama is the clear #2 team. Who cares that many players will play in the NFL - Alabama should be punished for losing with such great talent - coaches must suck!
2. Oregon lost to a bad team from an almost Ivy League school - can't be #3
3. Ohio State lost - at least they are behind Oregon
4. If Cincinnati isn't eligible due to conference affiliation, just state that before the season starts. Don't say beating Notre Dame on the road is the second best win in college football this year but that is negated by only beating Navy by 7. Why is Oregon's great win not negated by losing to Stanford?
5. Oklahoma at #8? Is the point to win to game or not?

No wonder the NFL crushes college football in attention & ratings. The old bowl system was better than this mess - a bunch of good ole boys from the hollers are destroying this once fun sport.

That's why we need 12 and we need guaranteed spots for conference champions (or at least 8 with guaranteed spots)--to eliminate this eyeball nonsense that ignores what happens on th field.

We might get there with 12 teams...but the SEC's surreptitious actions blew that up for the moment.

Can't really call it a playoff unless you have 8 teams, or maybe 12. Somehow I have little confidence in the "eye test". How about settling it on the field. If you can't do that, then just go back to strictly bowl games.