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70shawk Offline
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MyBB Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/colo...22-preview

The 'predicted order of finish' is pretty conventional, but their write-up on the Seahawks is more thoughtful than the other previews I've seen:


9. UNC Wilmington

Key Returners: Mike Okauru, Jaylen Sims, Jamahri Harvey, Shykeim Phillips
Key Losses: Ty Gadsen, Joe Pridgen, Jake Boggs, John Brown, Imajae Dodd, Brian Tolefree

Key Newcomers: Jaylen Fornes (Nicholls State), James Baker (Morehead State), Alec Oglesby (Cleveland State), Amari Kelly (Duquesne), Trazarien White (JUCO), Jamarii Thomas, Khamari McGriff

Lineup:


Outlook: It’s been tough sledding for the UNCW program since Kevin Keatts travelled up north to Raleigh. CB McGrath wasn’t the answer, and Sakayo Tiddle’s first season was marred by injuries and COVID pauses. The Seahawks have won just 18 CAA contests in the past four years – Keatts won 41 in three.

We’re going to give Siddle a pass for last season. His starting point guard was injured most of the year, his best player missed the last five games, and his team went through two 20+ day pauses. Nobody can win under those circumstances, especially a first-year coach with an abbreviated offseason. 2021-22 will be Siddle’s first true test – the CAA is wide open, his team is fully healthy, and he has a good mix of talent and experience on his roster. Wilmington will look to crack the top five of the CAA standings for the first time since 2017.

Siddle didn’t get a chance to run his preferred style to its fullest on both ends of the floor. Offensively, UNCW was uptempo, but it feels like Siddle would prefer his squad play even faster and be more of a “run-n-gun” attack versus a half-court dribble-drive attack. UNCW lacked shooting last year (especially when Jaylen Sims went down) and thus were forced to rely on rim running and the free throw line to score points. The Seahawks ranked 10th in the country in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe. Expect more transition this season, more three-point shooting, and a consistent dose of ball screens in a spread-out offense.

UNCW is about the guards, ‘bout the guards, ‘bout the guards, no treble. Siddle will often throw out four or even five “guards” on the floor at the same time, making his offense extremely difficult to defend. Former Florida transfer Mike Okauru, a 3rd Team All-CAA selection last year, and Jaylen Sims lead the way. Okauru was forced into point guard duties last season with the injury to Shykeim Phillips. He performed his duties admirably, ranking 5th in the CAA in assist rate and 7th in TO rate. Okauru developed into a leader and was the 2nd highest used player in the league. His impact was clearly seen in Hoop-Explorer on/off splits, as his Seahawks scored 104.4 points per 100 possessions on an adjusted basis when he played versus just 94.3 when he sat. That is an enormous margin.

Sims missed the final four games of last season with a knee injury, but he should be ready to go for the start of the ’21-22 season. He would’ve easily etched his name on the All-CAA squad had he finished the year after averaging nearly 18 PPG. With his improved outside shooting, Sims became impossible to defend – he can score from all three levels and can beat any defender in the CAA in isolation. He’ll have a good shot at leading the league in scoring in his senior season.

Phillips is back to run point after playing just the final two games of last season. He was a CAA All-Rookie selection in ’19-20, and he’s a bloodhound on the ball defensively. His return allows Okauru to play a more natural off-ball position and gives the Seahawks a better lineup for attacking the opposing offense in their full-court press.

Sophomore Jamahri Harvey started 13 games as a freshman last year, and Siddle told Blue Ribbon he expects him to breakout in his second season. Harvey will compete with Jaylen Fornes for a starting spot, as the latter returns to UNCW from Nicholls State for his final year. Fornes spent his first three seasons at UNCW and is a career 38% shooter from deep. He can hold his own at the 3 with his ability to mix it up, slash, and compete on the glass.

Cleveland State transfer Alec Oglesby will play a role with his sniper-like shooting. He shot 43% from downtown as a freshman for the Vikings. Freshman PG Jamarii Thomas could also see run in a backup role; he’s a freak athlete who can yam at just barely 6-foot and a dynamic and confident ball-handler and playmaker.

Defense was a nightmare last season. UNCW finished outside the top 300 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings and graded out as the worst defensive team in the CAA. Conference foes shot 60.4% inside the arc against UNCW, an unfathomably bad number for the defending team. Siddle obviously preaches running shooters off the 3-point line, as evidenced by his team’s 13th-best 3PA rate allowed, but when you have no interior resistance to speak of, that style results in handing the opposition layup after layup after layup. Siddle likes to pick up full-court – UNCW pressed at the 5th highest rate in the country per Synergy, implementing a trapping zone full-court press as well as man-to-man. Every indication is Siddle intends to continue and extend this pressure, especially with a deeper backcourt.

Frontcourt play needs to be better on both ends. Defensively, UNCW was brutalized at the rim and on the boards and killed on post-ups. Per Synergy, UNCW allowed 1.107 PPP on post-ups, the 343rd worst mark in the country. On offense, the Seahawks had zero frontcourt weapons capable of scoring on the block or keeping possessions alive. They should be improved on both ends in 2021-22.

Morehead State transfer James Baker will have the biggest impact in the frontcourt. He’s listed as a guard on the UNCW roster, but he will play mostly 4 and even small-ball 5. Baker is a versatile defender who comes from an awesome defensive program, and on offense he can shoot, drive, and get to the foul line. He’ll be a legit asset in the frontcourt this season.

Duquesne transfer Amari Kelly should see a ton of run, if for nothing else than he’s tall, can block shots, and can rebound. Kelly’s length is his greatest asset, and he gives UNCW something it sorely needed last season. JUCO newbies Trazarien White and Khadim Samb will play roles up front as well. White in particular will be impactful after averaging 18.5 PPG and 7.1 RPG last year in the JUCO ranks. Freshman Khamari McGriff rounds out the rotation, a long forward with a ton of potential.

Bottom Line: UNCW has a wide array of potential outcomes this season. If everything clicks offensively, the players stay healthy, and Siddle’s pressure scheme forces turnovers and bothers opponents effectively, a top five finish is in play. However, if the defense is still the worst in the league and shooting remains dicey, the Seahawks may be looking at yet another sub-.500 CAA season.
10-31-2021 02:00 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
(10-31-2021 02:00 PM)70shawk Wrote:  https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/colo...22-preview

The 'predicted order of finish' is pretty conventional, but their write-up on the Seahawks is more thoughtful than the other previews I've seen:


9. UNC Wilmington

Key Returners: Mike Okauru, Jaylen Sims, Jamahri Harvey, Shykeim Phillips
Key Losses: Ty Gadsen, Joe Pridgen, Jake Boggs, John Brown, Imajae Dodd, Brian Tolefree

Key Newcomers: Jaylen Fornes (Nicholls State), James Baker (Morehead State), Alec Oglesby (Cleveland State), Amari Kelly (Duquesne), Trazarien White (JUCO), Jamarii Thomas, Khamari McGriff

Lineup:


Outlook: It’s been tough sledding for the UNCW program since Kevin Keatts travelled up north to Raleigh. CB McGrath wasn’t the answer, and Sakayo Tiddle’s first season was marred by injuries and COVID pauses. The Seahawks have won just 18 CAA contests in the past four years – Keatts won 41 in three.

We’re going to give Siddle a pass for last season. His starting point guard was injured most of the year, his best player missed the last five games, and his team went through two 20+ day pauses. Nobody can win under those circumstances, especially a first-year coach with an abbreviated offseason. 2021-22 will be Siddle’s first true test – the CAA is wide open, his team is fully healthy, and he has a good mix of talent and experience on his roster. Wilmington will look to crack the top five of the CAA standings for the first time since 2017.

Siddle didn’t get a chance to run his preferred style to its fullest on both ends of the floor. Offensively, UNCW was uptempo, but it feels like Siddle would prefer his squad play even faster and be more of a “run-n-gun” attack versus a half-court dribble-drive attack. UNCW lacked shooting last year (especially when Jaylen Sims went down) and thus were forced to rely on rim running and the free throw line to score points. The Seahawks ranked 10th in the country in percentage of points scored from the charity stripe. Expect more transition this season, more three-point shooting, and a consistent dose of ball screens in a spread-out offense.

UNCW is about the guards, ‘bout the guards, ‘bout the guards, no treble. Siddle will often throw out four or even five “guards” on the floor at the same time, making his offense extremely difficult to defend. Former Florida transfer Mike Okauru, a 3rd Team All-CAA selection last year, and Jaylen Sims lead the way. Okauru was forced into point guard duties last season with the injury to Shykeim Phillips. He performed his duties admirably, ranking 5th in the CAA in assist rate and 7th in TO rate. Okauru developed into a leader and was the 2nd highest used player in the league. His impact was clearly seen in Hoop-Explorer on/off splits, as his Seahawks scored 104.4 points per 100 possessions on an adjusted basis when he played versus just 94.3 when he sat. That is an enormous margin.

Sims missed the final four games of last season with a knee injury, but he should be ready to go for the start of the ’21-22 season. He would’ve easily etched his name on the All-CAA squad had he finished the year after averaging nearly 18 PPG. With his improved outside shooting, Sims became impossible to defend – he can score from all three levels and can beat any defender in the CAA in isolation. He’ll have a good shot at leading the league in scoring in his senior season.

Phillips is back to run point after playing just the final two games of last season. He was a CAA All-Rookie selection in ’19-20, and he’s a bloodhound on the ball defensively. His return allows Okauru to play a more natural off-ball position and gives the Seahawks a better lineup for attacking the opposing offense in their full-court press.

Sophomore Jamahri Harvey started 13 games as a freshman last year, and Siddle told Blue Ribbon he expects him to breakout in his second season. Harvey will compete with Jaylen Fornes for a starting spot, as the latter returns to UNCW from Nicholls State for his final year. Fornes spent his first three seasons at UNCW and is a career 38% shooter from deep. He can hold his own at the 3 with his ability to mix it up, slash, and compete on the glass.

Cleveland State transfer Alec Oglesby will play a role with his sniper-like shooting. He shot 43% from downtown as a freshman for the Vikings. Freshman PG Jamarii Thomas could also see run in a backup role; he’s a freak athlete who can yam at just barely 6-foot and a dynamic and confident ball-handler and playmaker.

Defense was a nightmare last season. UNCW finished outside the top 300 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency ratings and graded out as the worst defensive team in the CAA. Conference foes shot 60.4% inside the arc against UNCW, an unfathomably bad number for the defending team. Siddle obviously preaches running shooters off the 3-point line, as evidenced by his team’s 13th-best 3PA rate allowed, but when you have no interior resistance to speak of, that style results in handing the opposition layup after layup after layup. Siddle likes to pick up full-court – UNCW pressed at the 5th highest rate in the country per Synergy, implementing a trapping zone full-court press as well as man-to-man. Every indication is Siddle intends to continue and extend this pressure, especially with a deeper backcourt.

Frontcourt play needs to be better on both ends. Defensively, UNCW was brutalized at the rim and on the boards and killed on post-ups. Per Synergy, UNCW allowed 1.107 PPP on post-ups, the 343rd worst mark in the country. On offense, the Seahawks had zero frontcourt weapons capable of scoring on the block or keeping possessions alive. They should be improved on both ends in 2021-22.

Morehead State transfer James Baker will have the biggest impact in the frontcourt. He’s listed as a guard on the UNCW roster, but he will play mostly 4 and even small-ball 5. Baker is a versatile defender who comes from an awesome defensive program, and on offense he can shoot, drive, and get to the foul line. He’ll be a legit asset in the frontcourt this season.

Duquesne transfer Amari Kelly should see a ton of run, if for nothing else than he’s tall, can block shots, and can rebound. Kelly’s length is his greatest asset, and he gives UNCW something it sorely needed last season. JUCO newbies Trazarien White and Khadim Samb will play roles up front as well. White in particular will be impactful after averaging 18.5 PPG and 7.1 RPG last year in the JUCO ranks. Freshman Khamari McGriff rounds out the rotation, a long forward with a ton of potential.

Bottom Line: UNCW has a wide array of potential outcomes this season. If everything clicks offensively, the players stay healthy, and Siddle’s pressure scheme forces turnovers and bothers opponents effectively, a top five finish is in play. However, if the defense is still the worst in the league and shooting remains dicey, the Seahawks may be looking at yet another sub-.500 CAA season.


Most accurate write up I've seen so far.
10-31-2021 02:16 PM
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solohawks Online
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
Agree
Good find

Will check that site out more
11-01-2021 07:12 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
Three Man Weave has become my go-to when "scouting" our opponents. Love that site.
11-01-2021 02:34 PM
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
Thanks for sharing the Three Man Weave preview. It looks about right for us and I'm optimistic about the talent that Siddle has brought in. Disturbingly, from this preview it looks like several of our rivals have really brought in some excellent new blood--none of our recruits are rated among the top newcomers by them. I guess that's good for the CAA, but maybe not so much for us!
11-01-2021 02:58 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
(11-01-2021 02:58 PM)Osprey#1 Wrote:  Thanks for sharing the Three Man Weave preview. It looks about right for us and I'm optimistic about the talent that Siddle has brought in. Disturbingly, from this preview it looks like several of our rivals have really brought in some excellent new blood--none of our recruits are rated among the top newcomers by them. I guess that's good for the CAA, but maybe not so much for us!

Interesting to see the large number of transfers, 4 of the top 5 teams had 4 or more transfers.
11-01-2021 03:04 PM
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B_Hawk06 Offline
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Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
(11-01-2021 02:58 PM)Osprey#1 Wrote:  Thanks for sharing the Three Man Weave preview. It looks about right for us and I'm optimistic about the talent that Siddle has brought in. Disturbingly, from this preview it looks like several of our rivals have really brought in some excellent new blood--none of our recruits are rated among the top newcomers by them. I guess that's good for the CAA, but maybe not so much for us!


Great point. Our recruiting success is always going to be tied to the success/failure of our conference foes’ recruiting. It looks like we have some really fun players in the mix, but if the folks that know the conference the best aren’t rating them as high as others, than we either have a large number of under the radar talents or we could be in for another long one.


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11-01-2021 08:48 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
(11-01-2021 08:48 PM)B_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(11-01-2021 02:58 PM)Osprey#1 Wrote:  Thanks for sharing the Three Man Weave preview. It looks about right for us and I'm optimistic about the talent that Siddle has brought in. Disturbingly, from this preview it looks like several of our rivals have really brought in some excellent new blood--none of our recruits are rated among the top newcomers by them. I guess that's good for the CAA, but maybe not so much for us!


Great point. Our recruiting success is always going to be tied to the success/failure of our conference foes’ recruiting. It looks like we have some really fun players in the mix, but if the folks that know the conference the best aren’t rating them as high as others, than we either have a large number of under the radar talents or we could be in for another long one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I'm not too worried about it. With the exception of CJ Bryce, none of Keatts recruits or transfers were thought of as top of the line CAA players. Siddle has a very system oriented style of play that relies on the ability to create turnovers, get on the break, and finish at the rim or hit threes. If our defensive intensity is there, we can dictate style of play and negate individual talent on other teams.

It will call come down to chemistry and having a few go to guys who can get a bucket at the end of games. We all remember the great teams with finshers like Blizzard, TJ Carter and Denzel Ingram who came through when they had to. If we have one of those in this group, we could see a quick turnaround for the Hawks'. And nobody saw Ingram or Carter as anything special when they came in, and they became that guy, but had never been that guy before.

We'll find out soon enough. Can't wait to get a glimpse of these guys on the floor Thursday night.
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2021 02:25 AM by 82hawk.)
11-02-2021 02:24 AM
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
(11-02-2021 02:24 AM)82hawk Wrote:  
(11-01-2021 08:48 PM)B_Hawk06 Wrote:  
(11-01-2021 02:58 PM)Osprey#1 Wrote:  Thanks for sharing the Three Man Weave preview. It looks about right for us and I'm optimistic about the talent that Siddle has brought in. Disturbingly, from this preview it looks like several of our rivals have really brought in some excellent new blood--none of our recruits are rated among the top newcomers by them. I guess that's good for the CAA, but maybe not so much for us!


Great point. Our recruiting success is always going to be tied to the success/failure of our conference foes’ recruiting. It looks like we have some really fun players in the mix, but if the folks that know the conference the best aren’t rating them as high as others, than we either have a large number of under the radar talents or we could be in for another long one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I'm not too worried about it. With the exception of CJ Bryce, none of Keatts recruits or transfers were thought of as top of the line CAA players. Siddle has a very system oriented style of play that relies on the ability to create turnovers, get on the break, and finish at the rim or hit threes. If our defensive intensity is there, we can dictate style of play and negate individual talent on other teams.

It will call come down to chemistry and having a few go to guys who can get a bucket at the end of games. We all remember the great teams with finshers like Blizzard, TJ Carter and Denzel Ingram who came through when they had to. If we have one of those in this group, we could see a quick turnaround for the Hawks'. And nobody saw Ingram or Carter as anything special when they came in, and they became that guy, but had never been that guy before.

We'll find out soon enough. Can't wait to get a glimpse of these guys on the floor Thursday night.

Yep! Can't wait to see these guys on the court!
11-02-2021 05:19 AM
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
Sims is that guy because he can score at all 3 levels and is very hard to stop. He’s a nightmare to guard.
11-02-2021 07:16 PM
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82hawk Offline
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
(11-02-2021 07:16 PM)billthebighawksfan Wrote:  Sims is that guy because he can score at all 3 levels and is very hard to stop. He’s a nightmare to guard.

Coming through in the clutch is what matters, not where you can score from. We haven't had that go to guy at the end of games since Ingram left, and every championship team had had that guy for UNCW. He may be that guy, but hasn't so far.
11-02-2021 07:29 PM
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RE: Three Man Weave: Colonial 2021-22 Preview
He was being that guy last year before getting hurt. He will make money playing basketball, perhaps a lot of it, if he pursues that route. I don’t see another player in the CAA as diverse with size like that. I definitely agree with the coach, he can be CAA player of the year.
11-02-2021 08:27 PM
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