(11-01-2021 02:49 PM)mtmedlin Wrote: With UTSA taking their big step and keeping their coach, if Rice can put this money to good use, we could have a VERY strong contingent of Texas schools. Really hope through all of this that SMU can hold onto their coach.
This all seems like wishful thinking at this point - - "pie in the sky."
I haven't seen any compelling evidence that the AAC will have a VERY strong contingent of Texas schools. None of the current or future Texas AAC schools, other than Houston, is very strong this year, and even Houston hasn't been that impressive, considering that they lost to (5-4) Texas Tech, in Houston, by 15 points and only managed to beat (2-7) USF by 12 points over the weekend.
All I see at this point are two very weak G5 programs (UNT and Rice) and two fairly (not very) strong football schools - - SMU and UTSA. UTSA has a chance to finish the season in the top 25, but they seem over-ranked, and I doubt that they would beat any of the other top 25 teams on a neutral field.
SMU is fairly strong, but not VERY STRONG this year. They lost to (5-4) Memphis, only beat (2-7) La Tech by 2 points and only beat (2-7) Navy by 7.
Is UTSA for real? It looks that way now, and
much like SMU, they're a fairly strong team, but their most impressive wins to date have been:
32-28 (by 4 pts) @ (5-4) Memphis (predicted to finish 7-5)
37-30 (by 7 pts) @ (4-6) Illinois (predicted to finish 5-7)
44-23 (by 21 pts) @ (6-3) UTEP (predicted to finish 7-5)
52-46 (by 6 pts) @ (5-4) WKU (predicted to finish 7-5)
Although they're 9-0, they only have 3 wins vs. teams with winning records, so I'm not convinced that they're going to be the next Boise St. or App State.
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They certainly have a good CUSA team, but they've played a light schedule and I would expect them to lose by 2 or 3 touchdowns to a 7 or 8 win P5 team in a bowl game.
Take Illinois, for example. They lost home games to (4-5) Rutgers by 6 pts, to (5-4) Maryland by 3 pts, and to (6-3) Wisconsin by 24 pts, and they were blown out by (6-3) Virginia). They've only beaten two teams with winning records.
Or take WKU, which UTSA beat by 6 points. WKU isn't bad this year, but they lost to (2-7) Indiana, and haven't beaten an FBS team with a winning record all season
Or take Memphis, which UTSA beat by 4 points. Memphis has lost to #94 Tulsa and #122 Temple, and they've only beaten two teams with winning records, both on their home field, by an average of 25 points.
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This is UTSA's 10th season as an FBS program. They lost more games than they won over their first nine seasons, averaging only 5.33 wins per season. To date,
they have only qualified for two bowl games, and they lost both of them.
This has been their best season yet. Whether they have greater upside potential or not isn't clear yet.
That doesn't mean that they have a bad or mediocre program, but simply that they've still got some work to do to prove that they can, for example, beat a P5 team with a winning record.
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There's very little evidence to suggest that Rice and North Texas are any more likely than schools such as Charlotte or FIU to become either "fairly" strong or "very strong," much less VERY strong. Rice has done practically nothing for decades, and North Texas has only had three winning seasons in the past decade. They've played in a few bowl games, including two that they played in despite winning fewer than 6 games, and they've lost all but one of them - - back in 2013.
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I tend to root for underdogs, and would like to see them get somewhere, but all I really see right now are hopes and dreams, or "mirages" of what "might" be very strong programs 2 or 3 years from now. Just pie in the sky.
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So, will the AAC West be a strong football division, with teams such as Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Navy, UTSA, UNT, and Rice?
Unless Navy re-emerges as a periodic football power - - which it might - - I would expect to see SMU leading the pack most years, followed (in no particular order) by UTSA, Tulsa. and Tulane, with UNT and Rice tending to bring up the rear most years.
I don't expect SMU to stay much beyond 2026, when many are predicting they and Memphis will join the Big 12.
At that point, Navy, UTSA, Tulsa, and Tulane might battle amongst themselves for the division championship, and one of them might occasionally end up in the nation's top 25, but
I'm not seeing any evidence, right now, that any more than one of the Texas imports from the CUSA has a shot at becoming anything like a football dynasty or a powerhouse.