(10-28-2021 10:56 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Not going to go look but how many G5 schools lead in their home markets?

Not G5, but Montana schools were dominating Montana. Alabama/Clemson/Ohio St/LSU didn’t spread there.

(10-27-2021 10:16 PM)jhn31 Wrote:  I think this is especially relevant in the time of realignment, judging which conferences actually "won" realignment. Looking at the Big 12 adds:

• BYU - virtual tie with Utah for 1st in Salt Lake City DMA and Utah, which are close to contiguous, and some additional spread into Idaho
• Cincinnati - 14% of Cincinnati DMA (2nd), 3% of Ohio
• Houston - 5% of Houston DMA (5th)
• UCF - 12% of Orlando DMA (2nd)
  

Those don't super impressive, but they clearly picked the best schools outside of the P5. Houston is a huge metro area (7M), larger than a lot of states, so getting 5% of the interest there is better than, say, 37% of the state of Wyoming (which has <600K people).

The other 4 schools supposedly considered by the Big 12 but not added just don't perform as well:

• Memphis - 19% of Memphis DMA (1st), 4% of Tennessee (6th and 1st non-SEC)
• Boise State - 44% of Boise DMA (1st), spread into the rest of Idaho, 34% of Idaho (1st)
• SMU - 3% of Dallas-Fort Worth DMA (10th), 1% of Texas
• USF - 5% of Tampa DMA (6th), 2% of Florida
  

I think we all know the AAC and Sun Belt took different approaches in who to add, but it may not be as different as you might think:

• Charlotte - 2% in Charlotte DMA
• FAU - 4% in West Palm Beach DMA
• North Texas - 2% in Dallas-Fort Worth DMA
• Rice - 1% in Houston DMA
• UAB - 2% in Birmingham DMA
• UTSA - 4% in San Antonio DMA
  

• James Madison - 21% in Harrisonburg DMA (1st, though it's a very small DMA)
• Marshall - 12% in Charleston DMA (3rd), 7% in West Virginia (2nd)
• Old Dominion - 6% in Norfolk DMA
• Southern Miss - 12% in Hattiesburg DMA (5th, but within 3% of first)
  

I don't have exact population totals of each region, and it's all just relativities to each other rather than actual counts of searches, but it's not clear that the AAC teams are less popular - North Texas getting 2% of the huge Dallas market is going to be the highest of these 10, with UTSA, Marshall, and Old Dominion roughly tying for second, but there's something to be said for the fact that the Sun Belt adds actually have a significant following in their home areas.

As far as potential FCS callups go, Sam Houston State getting 1% in Houston is more people overall than Lamar (5% in Beaumont), Missouri State (5% in Springfield), or Stephen F. Austin (4% in Tyler), but the real power might be in Montana and North Dakota State, who dominate the interest of small population states.

(Also worth noting that Maine, New Hampshire, and Delaware rank in #1 in their states, but Rhode Island is barely edged out by Notre Dame.)

And Houston getting 5% in Houston is significant when the top remaining Big 12 school is Baylor with only 3% (Texas + OU was 18%). By contrast, Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech combine for 10% in DFW. They had a pretty solid base there.

Awesome job, Thank you!

(10-27-2021 10:16 PM)jhn31 Wrote:  I used Python (Pytrends package) to scrape Google Trends data for every college football team by media market (DMA) and state (shown at the top right), and then Tableau to show it.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/h...Metros/CFB

This is based on the time period of August 2018 - July 2021, which I wanted to be as current as possible, but not split any seasons up. It shows the percent of Google Searches (including Youtube and similar sites) by category. So it's not exactly a fandom map, since some people probably search for multiple teams, but since almost everyone uses Google at some point on their phone, tablet, or computer, I think it's a good proxy for how much interest there is by market and by state. Unfortunately, it only gives by whole numbers, which makes it hard to compare very small or close results, and since it changes a bit from day to day (I believe it's just using a sample), I ran it every day for a week and averaged the results.

Right now it's set to shade the regions and states by how popular the most popular team in the state is, but you can select to see a single color for the "winner" of each, or choose a school and see how common-searched-for that particular school is everywhere.

Does your Google Trends dataset only contain one search term per school?

Example 1: "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns" instead of also UL/ULL/UL Lafayette/Ragin' Cajuns/etc.?
Example 2: "LSU Tigers" instead of LSU/Louisiana State/etc.?

(10-28-2021 03:28 PM)Complacent Cajun Wrote:  

(10-27-2021 10:16 PM)jhn31 Wrote:  I used Python (Pytrends package) to scrape Google Trends data for every college football team by media market (DMA) and state (shown at the top right), and then Tableau to show it.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/h...Metros/CFB

This is based on the time period of August 2018 - July 2021, which I wanted to be as current as possible, but not split any seasons up. It shows the percent of Google Searches (including Youtube and similar sites) by category. So it's not exactly a fandom map, since some people probably search for multiple teams, but since almost everyone uses Google at some point on their phone, tablet, or computer, I think it's a good proxy for how much interest there is by market and by state. Unfortunately, it only gives by whole numbers, which makes it hard to compare very small or close results, and since it changes a bit from day to day (I believe it's just using a sample), I ran it every day for a week and averaged the results.

Right now it's set to shade the regions and states by how popular the most popular team in the state is, but you can select to see a single color for the "winner" of each, or choose a school and see how common-searched-for that particular school is everywhere.

Does your Google Trends dataset only contain one search term per school?

Example 1: "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns" instead of also UL/ULL/UL Lafayette/Ragin' Cajuns/etc.?
Example 2: "LSU Tigers" instead of LSU/Louisiana State/etc.?

No, it's based on Google's categories, which covers all of it

In the multiple P5 state category, the most surprising to me was Arizona when Arizona State led Arizona 17% to 11%. In Mississippi, Mississippi and Mississippi State tied with 17% each. I would've though Ole Miss would've "won the state". It wasn't a surprise that Clemson led South Carolina the way Clemson has played lately but it is shameful if you are South Carolina that the namesake is losing the state. Notre Dame is leading Indiana 17% to 14%. Michigan and Michigan State play Saturday but if this site is any indication the state is overall going to be blue over green by a 2 to 1 margin (36% to 18%). Kansas State leads Kansas 26% to 17% but considering how bad Kansas football is shouldn't that be higher? How about LSU is higher than Texas A&M in Texas (9% to 8%)? Temple is pretty embarrassing. They're not even on the board in Pennsylvania and just 3% of Philly.

If you're looking for Pac 12 to expand into Texas, you want 4% of the state (Texas Tech or Baylor) or 3% (TCU)? Houston isn't on the board. If Texas wanted the fans of Texas, they're better off getting LSU (9%), Oklahoma (5%), or even Alabama (5%)!

(10-28-2021 06:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  In the multiple P5 state category, the most surprising to me was Arizona when Arizona State led Arizona 17% to 11%. In Mississippi, Mississippi and Mississippi State tied with 17% each. I would've though Ole Miss would've "won the state". It wasn't a surprise that Clemson led South Carolina the way Clemson has played lately but it is shameful if you are South Carolina that the namesake is losing the state. Notre Dame is leading Indiana 17% to 14%. Michigan and Michigan State play Saturday but if this site is any indication the state is overall going to be blue over green by a 2 to 1 margin (36% to 18%). Kansas State leads Kansas 26% to 17% but considering how bad Kansas football is shouldn't that be higher? How about LSU is higher than Texas A&M in Texas (9% to 8%)? Temple is pretty embarrassing. They're not even on the board in Pennsylvania and just 3% of Philly.

If you're looking for Pac 12 to expand into Texas, you want 4% of the state (Texas Tech or Baylor) or 3% (TCU)? Houston isn't on the board. If Texas wanted the fans of Texas, they're better off getting LSU (9%), Oklahoma (5%), or even Alabama (5%)!

These are google searches and LSU was the best team in the nation in 2019 so people were paying attention to them. LSU is NOT ahead of Texas A&M in Texas. And they aren't ahead of Houston in Houston (although good chance they are #4 in Houston).

This is a really nice piece of work and tells you a lot, but can't be treated as definitive level of interest.

(10-28-2021 06:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  In the multiple P5 state category, the most surprising to me was Arizona when Arizona State led Arizona 17% to 11%. In Mississippi, Mississippi and Mississippi State tied with 17% each. I would've though Ole Miss would've "won the state". It wasn't a surprise that Clemson led South Carolina the way Clemson has played lately but it is shameful if you are South Carolina that the namesake is losing the state. Notre Dame is leading Indiana 17% to 14%. Michigan and Michigan State play Saturday but if this site is any indication the state is overall going to be blue over green by a 2 to 1 margin (36% to 18%). Kansas State leads Kansas 26% to 17% but considering how bad Kansas football is shouldn't that be higher? How about LSU is higher than Texas A&M in Texas (9% to 8%)? Temple is pretty embarrassing. They're not even on the board in Pennsylvania and just 3% of Philly.

If you're looking for Pac 12 to expand into Texas, you want 4% of the state (Texas Tech or Baylor) or 3% (TCU)? Houston isn't on the board. If Texas wanted the fans of Texas, they're better off getting LSU (9%), Oklahoma (5%), or even Alabama (5%)!

Let's compare Tech, Baylor, TCU and Houston again in a few years once the UT and OU halos have worn off the former three.

Again, great work. If you do the same for college basketball, please post it here.

(10-28-2021 06:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  In the multiple P5 state category, the most surprising to me was Arizona when Arizona State led Arizona 17% to 11%. In Mississippi, Mississippi and Mississippi State tied with 17% each. I would've though Ole Miss would've "won the state". It wasn't a surprise that Clemson led South Carolina the way Clemson has played lately but it is shameful if you are South Carolina that the namesake is losing the state. Notre Dame is leading Indiana 17% to 14%. Michigan and Michigan State play Saturday but if this site is any indication the state is overall going to be blue over green by a 2 to 1 margin (36% to 18%). Kansas State leads Kansas 26% to 17% but considering how bad Kansas football is shouldn't that be higher? How about LSU is higher than Texas A&M in Texas (9% to 8%)? Temple is pretty embarrassing. They're not even on the board in Pennsylvania and just 3% of Philly.

If you're looking for Pac 12 to expand into Texas, you want 4% of the state (Texas Tech or Baylor) or 3% (TCU)? Houston isn't on the board. If Texas wanted the fans of Texas, they're better off getting LSU (9%), Oklahoma (5%), or even Alabama (5%)!

The data are interesting though not definitive. Anyway, Memphis = 4% of TN (population 6.8 million). Temple = 3% of the Philadelphia DMA (population 8.35 million). The absolute numbers are nearly identical. Temple does well for a G5.

Hey UB is number one in our DMA, and by a pretty solid margin. Not too long ago we were not even there, it's been a long haul to get up for Buffalo.

21% in the 50th biggest market in the nation is a better showing than this program was near a decade ago.

(10-28-2021 10:56 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Not going to go look but how many G5 schools lead in their home markets?

I think that's going to depend on what dominant teams are nearby. GS is 4th in their market, but UGA is going to dominate everything except west Georgia, and that's not because of another G5...it's because Columbus is basically adopted Alabama, and Auburn rules with an iron fist.

For reference, GT also gets little traction in the Atlanta market, and GaState is basically unheard of (and I believe they beat Tennessee during this time frame).

When you look at ME, NH, VT, Eastern NY and MA, there's a possible opportunity for UMass to expand its reach. Other than FCS, its out of region teams they follow. BC being private doesn't seem to be noticed outside Boston.

Nebraska and Texas seem to have the biggest regional reach, often being high in neighboring states. Of course Notre Dame, Alabama and Ohio St. seem to pop up everywhere.

As I was looking at the data, I saw that Texas gets 4% in Knoxville. It's enough to get a shade of orange on the map. I wonder if that's catching searches in Knoxville for "UT".

(10-28-2021 08:55 PM)johnintx Wrote:  As I was looking at the data, I saw that Texas gets 4% in Knoxville. It's enough to get a shade of orange on the map. I wonder if that's catching searches in Knoxville for "UT".

Probably. They search UT and accidentally pick University of Texas. I noticed Texas rated relatively high in Tennessee. Unless its Tennessee relatives of all of those Tennessee boys who died in the Alamo.

(10-28-2021 10:56 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Not going to go look but how many G5 schools lead in their home markets?

Memphis seemingly leads rather nicely in the city of Memphis.

(10-28-2021 03:08 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(10-28-2021 10:56 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Not going to go look but how many G5 schools lead in their home markets?

Not G5, but Montana schools were dominating Montana. Alabama/Clemson/Ohio St/LSU didn’t spread there.

We Do, Fresno St.36% to USC 5%
Also Fresno has 543,000(5th highest in CA) pop., Fresno County over 1 Million. Visalia is Tulare county 469,000. Also not included Madera/Kings counties which are major Fresno St. markets.

(10-28-2021 06:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-28-2021 06:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  In the multiple P5 state category, the most surprising to me was Arizona when Arizona State led Arizona 17% to 11%. In Mississippi, Mississippi and Mississippi State tied with 17% each. I would've though Ole Miss would've "won the state". It wasn't a surprise that Clemson led South Carolina the way Clemson has played lately but it is shameful if you are South Carolina that the namesake is losing the state. Notre Dame is leading Indiana 17% to 14%. Michigan and Michigan State play Saturday but if this site is any indication the state is overall going to be blue over green by a 2 to 1 margin (36% to 18%). Kansas State leads Kansas 26% to 17% but considering how bad Kansas football is shouldn't that be higher? How about LSU is higher than Texas A&M in Texas (9% to 8%)? Temple is pretty embarrassing. They're not even on the board in Pennsylvania and just 3% of Philly.

If you're looking for Pac 12 to expand into Texas, you want 4% of the state (Texas Tech or Baylor) or 3% (TCU)? Houston isn't on the board. If Texas wanted the fans of Texas, they're better off getting LSU (9%), Oklahoma (5%), or even Alabama (5%)!

These are google searches and LSU was the best team in the nation in 2019 so people were paying attention to them. LSU is NOT ahead of Texas A&M in Texas. And they aren't ahead of Houston in Houston (although good chance they are #4 in Houston).

This is a really nice piece of work and tells you a lot, but can't be treated as definitive level of interest.

Agree and disagree. The time frame of the data is when Alabama, Clemson and LSU all had undefeated teams that won and/or played for the national title. So they pop up everywhere, probably disproportionately to "normal" times.

E.g., IMO there's little chance LSU has 4% fan support in Greenville SC (home of Clemson) or Clemson has 4% fan interest in Baton Rouge (home of LSU). But each was googling the other because they were big teams at the time. That's IMO why you see LSU and Clemson at 4% or 3% in lots of places on this map.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if LSU is more popular than Houston in Houston. LSU has a big following in Houston, Baton Rouge is only about 30 miles farther from Houston than Dallas is. Houston is also culturally a bayou city and a lot of LSU grads go to work there, while Houston the school is a G5 team. I'm not saying it is true, but wouldn't surprise me if it were.

All of that said, I repped the author because this is outstanding work, overall.

(10-29-2021 08:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-28-2021 06:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-28-2021 06:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  In the multiple P5 state category, the most surprising to me was Arizona when Arizona State led Arizona 17% to 11%. In Mississippi, Mississippi and Mississippi State tied with 17% each. I would've though Ole Miss would've "won the state". It wasn't a surprise that Clemson led South Carolina the way Clemson has played lately but it is shameful if you are South Carolina that the namesake is losing the state. Notre Dame is leading Indiana 17% to 14%. Michigan and Michigan State play Saturday but if this site is any indication the state is overall going to be blue over green by a 2 to 1 margin (36% to 18%). Kansas State leads Kansas 26% to 17% but considering how bad Kansas football is shouldn't that be higher? How about LSU is higher than Texas A&M in Texas (9% to 8%)? Temple is pretty embarrassing. They're not even on the board in Pennsylvania and just 3% of Philly.

If you're looking for Pac 12 to expand into Texas, you want 4% of the state (Texas Tech or Baylor) or 3% (TCU)? Houston isn't on the board. If Texas wanted the fans of Texas, they're better off getting LSU (9%), Oklahoma (5%), or even Alabama (5%)!

These are google searches and LSU was the best team in the nation in 2019 so people were paying attention to them. LSU is NOT ahead of Texas A&M in Texas. And they aren't ahead of Houston in Houston (although good chance they are #4 in Houston).

This is a really nice piece of work and tells you a lot, but can't be treated as definitive level of interest.

Agree and disagree. The time frame of the data is when Alabama, Clemson and LSU all had undefeated teams that won and/or played for the national title. So they pop up everywhere, probably disproportionately to "normal" times.

E.g., IMO there's little chance LSU has 4% fan support in Greenville SC (home of Clemson) or Clemson has 4% fan interest in Baton Rouge (home of LSU). But each was googling the other because they were big teams at the time. That's IMO why you see LSU and Clemson at 4% or 3% in lots of places on this map.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if LSU is more popular than Houston in Houston. LSU has a big following in Houston, Baton Rouge is only about 30 miles farther from Houston than Dallas is. Houston is also culturally a bayou city and a lot of LSU grads go to work there, while Houston the school is a G5 team. I'm not saying it is true, but wouldn't surprise me if it were.

All of that said, I repped the author because this is outstanding work, overall.

One type of test is the sporting goods store. In Houston, Texas and Texas A&M will have similar sized sections of gear. Houston will be a clear 3rd. With a lot less space, you may see LSU, Baylor and Rice. Usually don't see anything else unless its one of those shoe store chains that will have Duke, Kentucky, Notre Dame, etc. hats.

(10-28-2021 07:21 PM)LostInSpace Wrote:  

(10-28-2021 06:32 PM)schmolik Wrote:  In the multiple P5 state category, the most surprising to me was Arizona when Arizona State led Arizona 17% to 11%. In Mississippi, Mississippi and Mississippi State tied with 17% each. I would've though Ole Miss would've "won the state". It wasn't a surprise that Clemson led South Carolina the way Clemson has played lately but it is shameful if you are South Carolina that the namesake is losing the state. Notre Dame is leading Indiana 17% to 14%. Michigan and Michigan State play Saturday but if this site is any indication the state is overall going to be blue over green by a 2 to 1 margin (36% to 18%). Kansas State leads Kansas 26% to 17% but considering how bad Kansas football is shouldn't that be higher? How about LSU is higher than Texas A&M in Texas (9% to 8%)? Temple is pretty embarrassing. They're not even on the board in Pennsylvania and just 3% of Philly.

If you're looking for Pac 12 to expand into Texas, you want 4% of the state (Texas Tech or Baylor) or 3% (TCU)? Houston isn't on the board. If Texas wanted the fans of Texas, they're better off getting LSU (9%), Oklahoma (5%), or even Alabama (5%)!

The data are interesting though not definitive. Anyway, Memphis = 4% of TN (population 6.8 million). Temple = 3% of the Philadelphia DMA (population 8.35 million). The absolute numbers are nearly identical. Temple does well for a G5.

The problem in the case of Temple is that 3% is being compared to other schools. Penn State has 18% of the Philly market. If you're the Big Ten and you think going to Temple will bring you the Philadelphia market, this data disputes that. In fact, Ohio State has 5% of Philly! ACC going to Philly? Clemson has 4%. It doesn't scream to the ACC to add them either. By contrast, Cincinnati is a much smaller market and UC is still only 14% of it. But they're second only to OSU (27%) and no other current ACC school comes close (the OSU % tells you why the Big Ten wouldn't necessarily need Cincinnati either). By contrast, the University of Pittsburgh does lead the Pittsburgh market (22% to 14% for Penn State) so they would be the add that would make the most sense among these three for the Big Ten.

Adding Temple expands your Philadelphia presence from 18% to 21% (add in 5% for OSU and 3% for Michigan, from 26% to 29%)

Adding Cincinnati expands your Cincinnati presence from 27% to 41% (add in 6% for UM, from 33% to 47%)

Adding Pittsburgh expands your Pittsburgh presence from 14% to 36% (add in 6% for OSU, from 20% to 42%, still more than doubles it)

Of course adding an out of market school adds more potential eyeballs but also adds geographic miles for your athletes. Pittsburgh is still a potential growth market for the Big Ten and you box the ACC out of it as well as the entire state of PA unless they add Temple (and if they do, it's a win for the state).

BTW, Virginia barely cracks the radar in the DC market (3%). The Big Ten has two of the top three schools in the market, Maryland and Penn State, both tied at 6%. Ohio State has 5% and Michigan 3%. Of course this isn't including men's basketball.