(07-01-2022 09:17 AM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  I think the lesson here is delaying capital spend thinking the future costs will be justified is penny wise and pound foolish. Project costs seem to exponentially grow beyond inflation. $62M bought a 25K seat stadium in 2011. $139.5M bought an 8,500 seat arena in 2020… I can’t imagine what the cost to complete Bridgeforth will be… but likely between 1-1.5x of the original renovation costs. What would it have cost in 2011, another $20M, max?

I dont think you can really compare the two apples to apples. Yes, the cost of construction did increase in the ten years between the two projects but it's much more difficult to build an arena than an outdoor stadium. Need to remember that the HVAC alone for an enclosed space that big is probably in the $25M+ range.

(07-05-2022 06:11 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(07-01-2022 09:17 AM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  I think the lesson here is delaying capital spend thinking the future costs will be justified is penny wise and pound foolish. Project costs seem to exponentially grow beyond inflation. $62M bought a 25K seat stadium in 2011. $139.5M bought an 8,500 seat arena in 2020… I can’t imagine what the cost to complete Bridgeforth will be… but likely between 1-1.5x of the original renovation costs. What would it have cost in 2011, another $20M, max?

I dont think you can really compare the two apples to apples. Yes, the cost of construction did increase in the ten years between the two projects but it's much more difficult to build an arena than an outdoor stadium. Need to remember that the HVAC alone for an enclosed space that big is probably in the $25M+ range.

It's really tough to compare it to any build... even the new Bridgeforth side.
The demolition is probably similar. But there may be less or more work that needs to happen. We all remember micropiling, right? Perhaps that is or isn't needed. Plus, there will be no pressbox or club section. Nor will they be building a part for the endzone. There will most likely be more suites added, but aside from that, it should be a cheaper build as there's less "extra" stuff that needs to be added.
They have mentioned that Godwin doesn't need to be moved, but that could make it more expensive as it may be a bit more difficult to do.
I'm sure the admin knows how much the build will be and if the need is there, will make sure the funding is as well when the time arises.

so much micropiling

and so many flaps

(07-04-2022 11:43 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(07-04-2022 02:38 AM)HolyCityDuke Wrote:  

(07-03-2022 06:32 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(07-03-2022 01:11 PM)HolyCityDuke Wrote:  Recession is gonna be bad... Will be a good time for JMU to take advantage of cheap money come 2024-25 when economic recovery will begin. Will allow provided much needed job opportunities as well.

Based on what? Inflation? Energy prices? Neither of those factors portend a “bad recession”…perhaps even using the word “recession” is hyperbolic. A correction? Sure. A slow down? Likely. Employment is at historic lows, and the demand for labor is pushing wages/salaries up. Until you see a real slow down/uptick in unemployment rates there will be no recession.

Considering we just finished the 2nd quarter of negative growth… Also…

1. 58% of Americans now living paycheck to paycheck

2. Consumer confidence lowest since 1950

3. Stock market having its worst year since 1970

4. Mortgage demand lowest since 2001

5. Credit card debt up 20% in 1 month

We are just getting started.

1. Yes, negative growth after a year of record GDP growth, and a dollar whose value is ascending against other world currencies because the U. S. economy is relatively strong compared to other Western countries. It’s also worth pointing out most corporations are posting record profits, especially energy-related firms.

1A. So? Sadly, a majority of Americans have been living paycheck-to-paycheck for an untold number of years. Not a good thing. We can both agree about that fact, however, the stat you cite is not a drastic change forecasting a recession. The good news people have employment, so (as of this time) they have paychecks.

2. And yet consumer spending has hardly slowed.

3. The stock market is not the economy. Like many folks, my retirement accounts have taken a big hit during the first 2 qtrs., but you invest in the market expecting long-term plus results. Nothing in the first half of 2022 has made me question that the fundamental future prospects of the market have changed.

4. Mortgage rates often mirror demand. The Feds raising interests rates have also raised mortgage rates, which in turn have slowed demand. Rising mortgage rates is an effort by the Fed to tame inflation.

5. 1 month is not a trend.

None of what you’ve shared changes the fact employment remains strong. As I suggested in my first post, when lay-offs start to increase and unemployment rates rise then we can agree whether the word “recession” is applicable. Unemployment rates above 6% would be the trip-wire I’d be watching.

As an aside, recessions are not that uncommon, and given the SNAFU created by the COVID pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and related global issues impacting supply chains, energy and food prices, it would be a minor miracle to think some economic adjustments won’t happen, or are not happening. We just disagree about your language forecasting a severe period of adjustment.

1. Its getting worse not better

2. Consumer spending is increasing as well as Credit Card debt (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG) coupled with interest rates increasing, this is very bad.

3. Because it's common for the stock market to drop 25% in a few months during a roaring economy. 40% of the stock market is made up of zombie companies, they rely on debt for growth. Debt becoming more expensive, these companies will fold.

4. Yes, and with rising mortgage interests rates comes affordability. Housing is losing equity and will also get worse. We are in a severe housing bubble (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA). In addition, home prices adjusted for inflation is higher than its peak of the last bubble.

5. See 2. for trend.

As I stated prior, we are in the beginning of a recession, layoffs will soon follow.

(07-06-2022 08:25 AM)HolyCityDuke Wrote:  

(07-04-2022 11:43 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(07-04-2022 02:38 AM)HolyCityDuke Wrote:  

(07-03-2022 06:32 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(07-03-2022 01:11 PM)HolyCityDuke Wrote:  Recession is gonna be bad... Will be a good time for JMU to take advantage of cheap money come 2024-25 when economic recovery will begin. Will allow provided much needed job opportunities as well.

Based on what? Inflation? Energy prices? Neither of those factors portend a “bad recession”…perhaps even using the word “recession” is hyperbolic. A correction? Sure. A slow down? Likely. Employment is at historic lows, and the demand for labor is pushing wages/salaries up. Until you see a real slow down/uptick in unemployment rates there will be no recession.

Considering we just finished the 2nd quarter of negative growth… Also…

1. 58% of Americans now living paycheck to paycheck

2. Consumer confidence lowest since 1950

3. Stock market having its worst year since 1970

4. Mortgage demand lowest since 2001

5. Credit card debt up 20% in 1 month

We are just getting started.

1. Yes, negative growth after a year of record GDP growth, and a dollar whose value is ascending against other world currencies because the U. S. economy is relatively strong compared to other Western countries. It’s also worth pointing out most corporations are posting record profits, especially energy-related firms.

1A. So? Sadly, a majority of Americans have been living paycheck-to-paycheck for an untold number of years. Not a good thing. We can both agree about that fact, however, the stat you cite is not a drastic change forecasting a recession. The good news people have employment, so (as of this time) they have paychecks.

2. And yet consumer spending has hardly slowed.

3. The stock market is not the economy. Like many folks, my retirement accounts have taken a big hit during the first 2 qtrs., but you invest in the market expecting long-term plus results. Nothing in the first half of 2022 has made me question that the fundamental future prospects of the market have changed.

4. Mortgage rates often mirror demand. The Feds raising interests rates have also raised mortgage rates, which in turn have slowed demand. Rising mortgage rates is an effort by the Fed to tame inflation.

5. 1 month is not a trend.

None of what you’ve shared changes the fact employment remains strong. As I suggested in my first post, when lay-offs start to increase and unemployment rates rise then we can agree whether the word “recession” is applicable. Unemployment rates above 6% would be the trip-wire I’d be watching.

As an aside, recessions are not that uncommon, and given the SNAFU created by the COVID pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and related global issues impacting supply chains, energy and food prices, it would be a minor miracle to think some economic adjustments won’t happen, or are not happening. We just disagree about your language forecasting a severe period of adjustment.

1. Its getting worse not better

2. Consumer spending is increasing as well as Credit Card debt (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG) coupled with interest rates increasing, this is very bad.

3. Because it's common for the stock market to drop 25% in a few months during a roaring economy. 40% of the stock market is made up of zombie companies, they rely on debt for growth. Debt becoming more expensive, these companies will fold.

4. Yes, and with rising mortgage interests rates comes affordability. Housing is losing equity and will also get worse. We are in a severe housing bubble (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA). In addition, home prices adjusted for inflation is higher than its peak of the last bubble.

5. See 2. for trend.

As I stated prior, we are in the beginning of a recession, layoffs will soon follow.

Have to agree here. If you are in business at a decision making level you will understand where we are right now as far as what is forecasted over the next year or so. Companies are already pulling offers that they have made and cutting open positions that have not been filled and inevitably that will be followed by layoffs. While unemployment is low there is little to no growth in the economy and when you couple that with rising rates and inflation it adds up to some tough times ahead. Fed needs to continue to raise rates to beat inflation out of the economy and if they do the recession will be tough but short-lived. If they don't welcome to the 70's all over again.

As far as the market goes it will make it's upturn right before the economy bottoms which will most likely be in Q1 or Q2 of next year. I would expect that in the meantime the market will trade in a range and react to good and bad news as it comes with another 10-15% downside possible. If I had to bet at this time next year the market will be slightly higher than it is today but nowhere near the top at end of last year. I don't expect those valuations again for at least a few years, particularly in overall Nasdaq market though QQQ will recover quicker.

Why would consumer spending slow, the federal government can print more money and give it to us Venezuela style

It was mentioned here, but I'm not sure if it's really feasible -- Does anyone know if there's the ability to bring in temp bleachers between the new section and the old? There's not a ton of space, but probably enough that you could have some there, but no idea if that would violate any ingress/egress rules.

Seems that we'll have at least a couple games this year that would be able to take advantage of that. Assuming you could get in another 400+ butts, that could be enough revenue to make it worthwhile.

Edit:
Based on this picture, seems there may be 30-40' of space (using the size of an endzone to guesstimate)


If we're optimistically saying 42', with 20 rows, that would be an extra 440 seats:

Link to site: Link to site

to me, paying for the rent on 400 seats sounds like a wasted business choice. JMU would probably need to make them student seats since it would be sandwiched in between two student sections, which wouldn't generate revenue unless you take away student seating somewhere else.

Claim sellouts, make it a harder ticket to get, and we get to expansion that much sooner.

(07-06-2022 10:00 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  to me, paying for the rent on 400 seats sounds like a wasted business choice. JMU would probably need to make them student seats since it would be sandwiched in between two student sections, which wouldn't generate revenue unless you take away student seating somewhere else.

Claim sellouts, make it a harder ticket to get, and we get to expansion that much sooner.

Agree, just let the game sell out. Make it the hottest ticket in the state of VA.

(07-06-2022 10:00 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  to me, paying for the rent on 400 seats sounds like a wasted business choice. JMU would probably need to make them student seats since it would be sandwiched in between two student sections, which wouldn't generate revenue unless you take away student seating somewhere else.

Claim sellouts, make it a harder ticket to get, and we get to expansion that much sooner.

Agree.

(07-06-2022 10:00 PM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  to me, paying for the rent on 400 seats sounds like a wasted business choice. JMU would probably need to make them student seats since it would be sandwiched in between two student sections, which wouldn't generate revenue unless you take away student seating somewhere else.

Claim sellouts, make it a harder ticket to get, and we get to expansion that much sooner.

100% agree.
The higher demand also will make more want to see what all the hype is about. Plus I think it will make those that are there more raucous as they will truly want to be there.
This is a new era and we are going to see it from the ground floor. I am so psyched.

I also think there would be other issues. That area is the main entrance for the Students so a suitable space would have to be left for entry/egress. Sure the Fire Marshall would have something to say. It is also right next to the handicap access ramp so space would have to be left for that also. In the end I do not think you would be able to squeeze many seats in that space while also leaving suitable space for access to the old side and the end zone seats.

Brian