Three Man Weave picks Illinois State to finish 8th in the 10-team Missouri Valley this year.
https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/miss...22-preview
8. Illinois State
Key Returners: Josiah Strong, Antonio Reeves, Emon Washington, Howard Fleming, Harouna Sissoko
Key Losses: DJ Horne
Key Newcomers: Mark Freeman (Tennessee State), Kendall Lewis (Appalachian State), Liam McChesney (Utah State), Ryan Schmitt (JUCO)
Lineup:
Outlook: Oh, how the mighty have fallen…
After bringing up the rear last season, the Redbirds are now 17-39 over the last two seasons – only Evansville has fewer conference wins during that span, who leapfrogged Illinois State in the standings last year.
There’s plenty of finger pointing to go around but the cumulative lack of experience didn’t do Dan Muller any favors (ISU ranked 329th in KenPom’s experience metric last season). Muller didn’t shy away from voicing his frustration with such an unseasoned group, precisely why he nabbed experienced newcomers via the portal this offseason:
"I love freshmen, but not having any (first-year scholarship freshmen) is obvious,” Muller told the Pantagraph. “You put something in and guys kind of know what to do. [This year], we have three newcomers who have two years Division I experience and who know how to jump to the ball and know how to guard ball screens. Even if our technique is different, they pick it up quickly because they've been taught. Experience does help your talent equal production."
Muller circled the center position as top priority for offseason transfer targets. Dusan Mahorcic departs, a pleasant surprise last season who emerged as the Redbirds’ meal ticket inside, but Muller restocked the cupboard this summer. Liam McChesney and Ryan Schmitt are the two most imposing bigs – the former hails from Utah State’s forward factory while the latter dominated the D-II JUCO landscape. Neither is a proven commodity, though, so look for Abdou Ndiaye and Sy Chatman to gobble up a hearty share of the frontcourt minutes. ISU is fortunate to get both back in the fold. Ndiaye initially put his name in the portal but chose to return to Normal. Chatman opted out a few games into the season but stayed true to his commitment to return for the 2022 campaign.
Another fortuitous roster development was Antonio Reeves’ forgoing his pro prospects and boomeranging back to ISU. Reeves tested the NBA waters this summer but ultimately chose to stick around for another season. The former Simeon product out of Chicago has always been a tantalizing prospect, but he officially got our attention in late January when the Redbirds, miraculously, lasted 15 rounds with Drake. No one expected ISU to compete in that game, but Reeves essentially went 1-v-5 against the Bulldogs, tallying 27 of ISU’s 76 points. In that duel, there was a stretch Reeves scored 14 straight points, pushing the undefeated Bulldogs to the brink of their first loss:
Along with Reeves, the Redbirds will be highly leveraged on their four top producers: Reeves, Josiah Strong, Mark Freeman and Kendall Lewis. Freeman and Lewis were terrific at their prior destinations, compiling a resume that qualifies them as potential starters in the Valley. Specifically, their defense is what lured Muller to seek their services on the transfer wire:
"We've brought in some high-level defenders, in particular Kendall Lewis and Mark Freeman,” Muller told the Peoria Star Journal. In this league, you don't win unless you guard. I have very high hopes for this team defensively. It's no secret our defense hasn't been good the last couple years, and we have to get where we were a couple years ago. That's my goal."
Last year’s uncharacteristically poor defensive unit did nothing to offset the offensive shortcomings, as Muller was forced to rely on a 2-3 matchup zone (per Synergy, the Redbirds played zone on over half of their defensive possessions). When executed effectively, there’s an element of unfamiliarity that can bewilder opponents, since the zone doesn’t take a conventional 2-3 or 3-2 shape. But, the advanced numbers reveal ISU was still more effective in man-to-man. Per a recent interview with the Pantagraph, Muller is making a wise decision to reinstall man to man as his primary base defensive coverage.
Last year’s growing pains, particularly for the underclassmen, should start to yield returns in 2022. Emon Washington could be the best kept secret of this bunch, a rangy smooth wing who does serious damage around the restricted area. Howard Fleming’s injury baggage is worrisome but the flashy 6’5 playmaker forged his way into the starting lineup down the stretch last year. Harouna Sissoko, on the other hand, will have to scrap and claw to regain his place in the pecking order after forfeiting his starting job, while Alston Andrews offers additional size in the middle.
Bottom Line: Dissatisfied with the talent pipeline in house, Muller didn’t hesitate to hire external help this summer. Freeman and Lewis could emerge as ISU’s best players, but the incumbents have a pinch of firepower as well, namely Strong and Reeves. Above all, the personnel upgrades and stylistic adjustments point to a defensive turnaround in 2022, which has been Muller’s calling card for years. That alone should nudge ISU out of the basement but this league is simply too deep to realistically bet on a monumental turnaround.