As they say, loose lips sink ships.

This was true when the reporters tipped off the impending CSU/AFA defections...

And, it was also true when it was revealed that those schools desired to play Texas teams and the MWC was looking that way...

As with all realignment chatter, people will downplay interest as they see fit. However, it's widely accepted that the fatal flaw of Western based leagues is awful start times, which lead to innate disparities in exposure/bad bowl contracts/lower revenue.

That being said, IMO the mutual interest between Boise and the Big 12 made Texas expansion a pressing issue with the MWC.

The AAC's decision to remove that option from the big 'war board' has reset boundaries and walled off the MWC - not only from being able to expand in size when Boise leaves, but - from expanding their reach, both in terms of population and time offerings.

Craig Thompson is notoriously slow to press an advantage and this lack of aggression has left Colorado State and Air Force vulnerable - if indeed there is substance to the Big 12 rumors.

Because while both the MWC and AAC would both be in the crosshairs, only the AAC seriously has the capacity (and the heft) to absorb the hit - and adapt quickly. Navy's Western needs are taken care of, regardless; and (imo) Air Force's eastern needs will be met after the Big 12 expands.

Consequently, the AAC "Western Gambit" is in all actuality a few moves ahead in the sequence to be played.

If anyone wants to argue that UTEP and NMSU will satisfy the needs of Air Force and Colorado State, you're welcome to do so.

If anyone wants to talk about the appeal of certain additions, I'll posit that both leagues have memberships in flux right now and there is a greater vision that is playing out.

The key (at least for the American) right now is they have a media partner that is committed to seeing their conference succeed over the next decade; while the MWC is in dire straits if Boise State leaves at or before 2025 (as rumored). They simply have no way to recoup the hit just as their media deal runs out.

Now we all see why Colorado State and Air Force really wanted to leave. They know this is not over, and they don't have the security of a long term deal with a major network.

I just might be correct. I am sure we will get more details about the battle for Texas schools over the next few months

The MWC defeated the AAC by doing nothing.

I've been saying it the past few weeks the AAC should take UNT/UTSA just to keep them out of the hands of the MWC and they did so.

Also by going to 14 the AAC hedges its future against a couple of defections (SMU and Memphis for example) and wouldn't have to expand again like they did this time.

The AAC lost out on poaching B12 teams. They lost out on poaching MWC teams. According to reports, many of the teams joining were rejected by the MWC. And you people still worship at the altar of this clown, Aresco. I feel bad for Temple as a whole and for fans who root for Memphis.

Anyone ‘member when certain AAC fans claimed equality if not superiority with/to the BE? Pepperidge farms remembers, you were never close and are now competing with the WCC and MVC for 9th place. Good luck!

(10-19-2021 10:30 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  As they say, loose lips sink ships.

This was true when the reporters tipped off the impending CSU/AFA defections...

And, it was also true when it was revealed that those schools desired to play Texas teams and the MWC was looking that way...

As with all realignment chatter, people will downplay interest as they see fit. However, it's widely accepted that the fatal flaw of Western based leagues is awful start times, which lead to innate disparities in exposure/bad bowl contracts/lower revenue.

That being said, IMO the mutual interest between Boise and the Big 12 made Texas expansion a pressing issue with the MWC.

The AAC's decision to remove that option from the big 'war board' has reset boundaries and walled off the MWC - not only from being able to expand in size when Boise leaves, but - from expanding their reach, both in terms of population and time offerings.

Craig Thompson is notoriously slow to press an advantage and this lack of aggression has left Colorado State and Air Force vulnerable - if indeed there is substance to the Big 12 rumors.

Because while both the MWC and AAC would both be in the crosshairs, only the AAC seriously has the capacity (and the heft) to absorb the hit - and adapt quickly. Navy's Western needs are taken care of, regardless; and (imo) Air Force's eastern needs will be met after the Big 12 expands.

Consequently, the AAC "Western Gambit" is in all actuality a few moves ahead in the sequence to be played.

If anyone wants to argue that UTEP and NMSU will satisfy the needs of Air Force and Colorado State, you're welcome to do so.

If anyone wants to talk about the appeal of certain additions, I'll posit that both leagues have memberships in flux right now and there is a greater vision that is playing out.

The key (at least for the American) right now is they have a media partner that is committed to seeing their conference succeed over the next decade; while the MWC is in dire straits if Boise State leaves at or before 2025 (as rumored). They simply have no way to recoup the hit just as their media deal runs out.

Now we all see why Colorado State and Air Force really wanted to leave. They know this is not over, and they don't have the security of a long term deal with a major network.

So you are saying the AAC, as constituted with the 6 additions, will be better positioned to respond to losing Memphis to further Big XII expansion than the Mountain West will be to losing Boise. I got that. But the Colorado State-Air Force part: you project an Boise-less, 11 team MWC could not induce Colorado State or Air Force to remain by adding both UTEP and NMSU, so both Centennial State schools bolt and the league drops down to 9 schools, and the AAC, at 13 football playing schools after losing Memphis, in turn grows to 15 in FB by adding CSU and AFA?

(10-19-2021 10:30 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  As they say, loose lips sink ships.

This was true when the reporters tipped off the impending CSU/AFA defections...

And, it was also true when it was revealed that those schools desired to play Texas teams and the MWC was looking that way...

As with all realignment chatter, people will downplay interest as they see fit. However, it's widely accepted that the fatal flaw of Western based leagues is awful start times, which lead to innate disparities in exposure/bad bowl contracts/lower revenue.

That being said, IMO the mutual interest between Boise and the Big 12 made Texas expansion a pressing issue with the MWC.

The AAC's decision to remove that option from the big 'war board' has reset boundaries and walled off the MWC - not only from being able to expand in size when Boise leaves, but - from expanding their reach, both in terms of population and time offerings.

Craig Thompson is notoriously slow to press an advantage and this lack of aggression has left Colorado State and Air Force vulnerable - if indeed there is substance to the Big 12 rumors.

Because while both the MWC and AAC would both be in the crosshairs, only the AAC seriously has the capacity (and the heft) to absorb the hit - and adapt quickly. Navy's Western needs are taken care of, regardless; and (imo) Air Force's eastern needs will be met after the Big 12 expands.

Consequently, the AAC "Western Gambit" is in all actuality a few moves ahead in the sequence to be played.

If anyone wants to argue that UTEP and NMSU will satisfy the needs of Air Force and Colorado State, you're welcome to do so.

If anyone wants to talk about the appeal of certain additions, I'll posit that both leagues have memberships in flux right now and there is a greater vision that is playing out.

The key (at least for the American) right now is they have a media partner that is committed to seeing their conference succeed over the next decade; while the MWC is in dire straits if Boise State leaves at or before 2025 (as rumored). They simply have no way to recoup the hit just as their media deal runs out.

Now we all see why Colorado State and Air Force really wanted to leave. They know this is not over, and they don't have the security of a long term deal with a major network.

I think it's a little too soon to declare a "winner" in this year's realignment war, for two reasons.

First, it's by no means assured that Boise State will be leaving the MWC. The Big 12 isn't looking beyond its currently planned four additions right now, and if and when it does, it may very well choose to further cherry-pick the AAC instead of push its conference footprint all the way to Idaho.

Second, the big flaw in the AAC's box-out strategy is that it doesn't include giving its new Texas members shares of TV revenue anywhere close to what the incumbent AAC members will be receiving. This discrepancy will shrink somewhat but almost certainly will still exist over the full remaining ten years of the AAC's ESPN contract.

Meanwhile the MWC's TV contract is only in effect for five more years which means it will go out for bid in four years. That timing is perfect for the MWC and its network suitors to ascertain which of the AAC's three Texas additions have advanced far enough in terms of on-field performance, fan support, budget and brand value to increase rather than dilute the per-school value of the new MWC contract, and for the MWC in turn to offer membership to those schools. The offer would likely constitute a significant pay increase for those schools if they make the jump, and the offer will be even more appealing if the MWC has been more successful than the AAC in landing Access Bowl/expanded CFP berths during the interim.

So all the AAC may actually achieve with its box-out strategy is to furnish its new Texas members with helpful auditions for future invitations to the MWC. Of course there's no guaranty this will be the outcome, but to assume it can't or won't be ignores the considerations above.

The big12 is done expanding. They would only do so if the pac12 raided them and the pac12 has clearly stated they have no desire to expand. They are going to their tv negotiations with their current members. CUSA will do its thing then everyone will have to wait 10 years for the ACC to start the ball rolling again.

Boise has no market and their football may be mediocre from here on out. The BIG XII has no need for them.

If Air Force and Colorado St want exposure in Texas they can schedule OOC football and basketball games with a number of different Texas schools.

(10-19-2021 10:41 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I've been saying it the past few weeks the AAC should take UNT/UTSA just to keep them out of the hands of the MWC and they did so.

Also by going to 14 the AAC hedges its future against a couple of defections (SMU and Memphis for example) and wouldn't have to expand again like they did this time.

I'm looking at this way-- the AAC lost their lunch money to the Big 12. Then they spotted some gum under the table and grabbed it before the Mountain West spotted it. And now they think they are the big winner of the day. Wow. Congrats I guess. I'm not sold the MW wanted either team anyway. Yes, they're in Texas, but that's about all they've got going for them.

If the rumor is correct, the new AAC will have unequal revenue sharing. This is intrinsically unstable for those who get more as well as those who get less. Texas remains in play.

You know why the AAC didn't "win" because all of the AAC fans on here were saying only add 2, to not further dilute our conference. So I'm sure everyone will get on board and in a few years, acting like they're the tallest midget again.

Worst comes to worst for the MWC and they lose Boise, we add UTEP. SDSU, Fresno will carry the flag. If the AAC loses Memphis they can add ODU.

The realignment war was won early on why the SEC added Texas and Oklahoma. The ‘runner up’ spot remains to be decided.

(10-20-2021 12:38 AM)Huan Wrote:  If the rumor is correct, the new AAC will have unequal revenue sharing. This is intrinsically unstable for those who get more as well as those who get less. Texas remains in play.

The MWC also splits the TV money unevenly, and when they tried to stop, Boise threatened to leave.

(10-19-2021 10:30 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  The key (at least for the American) right now is they have a media partner that is committed to seeing their conference succeed over the next decade; while the MWC is in dire straits if Boise State leaves at or before 2025 (as rumored). They simply have no way to recoup the hit just as their media deal runs out.

Now we all see why Colorado State and Air Force really wanted to leave. They know this is not over, and they don't have the security of a long term deal with a major network.

This has a lot to it. If ESPN is guaranteeing the 2019 billion-dollar deal, then that's a huge advantage for the AAC going forward.

Now, there's no guarantee that the Big 12 expands. I'm very skeptical of the value of a league's 7th football game every week. But if the Big 12 does grab Memphis and Boise State, the AAC has a pretty good chance of recruiting Air Force or Colorado State to replace Memphis, with a bunch of schools in big easy-to-get-to Texas DMAs and a more valuable TV contract.

And if the Big 12 doesn't expand, "full shares for the leftover 8 and half-shares for the 6 new schools" is a better outcome for the leftovers than "add 2 and share equally" or "add 2 and watch ESPN renegotiate the contract"

(10-20-2021 05:34 AM)Chappy Wrote:  

(10-20-2021 12:38 AM)Huan Wrote:  If the rumor is correct, the new AAC will have unequal revenue sharing. This is intrinsically unstable for those who get more as well as those who get less. Texas remains in play.

The MWC also splits the TV money unevenly, and when they tried to stop, Boise threatened to leave.

Which just underscores the point. The MWC allowed only one of 12 members to receive preferential treatment and it eventually created so much rancor there were threats of lawsuits and defections. In the AAC there will be eight of 14 members getting preferential treatment until at least 2031. How happy will the have-nots be about that by around, say, 2025? My guess is not very.

Talk about a spin job if you’re ever dying for one. Seems likely the Big 12 is done at 14 and SMU and USF probably duke it out for the last spot. BSU is stuck. CSU and AFA aren’t making that move.

Aresco probably sits tight at 12 once the Big 12 is done. I don’t see how CSU moves after the AAC loses their next top 2 in a couple years. For replacements, you got plenty of solid Conf USA and Sun Belt programs to poach.

(10-20-2021 05:59 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 10:30 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  The key (at least for the American) right now is they have a media partner that is committed to seeing their conference succeed over the next decade; while the MWC is in dire straits if Boise State leaves at or before 2025 (as rumored). They simply have no way to recoup the hit just as their media deal runs out.

Now we all see why Colorado State and Air Force really wanted to leave. They know this is not over, and they don't have the security of a long term deal with a major network.

This has a lot to it. If ESPN is guaranteeing the 2019 billion-dollar deal, then that's a huge advantage for the AAC going forward.

Now, there's no guarantee that the Big 12 expands. I'm very skeptical of the value of a league's 7th football game every week. But if the Big 12 does grab Memphis and Boise State, the AAC has a pretty good chance of recruiting Air Force or Colorado State to replace Memphis, with a bunch of schools in big easy-to-get-to Texas DMAs and a more valuable TV contract.

And if the Big 12 doesn't expand, "full shares for the leftover 8 and half-shares for the 6 new schools" is a better outcome for the leftovers than "add 2 and share equally" or "add 2 and watch ESPN renegotiate the contract"

It’s absolutely a better outcome for the leftovers. The question is whether it gives enough to the newbies to deter a couple of them from turning down potential MWC offers in 2025 that would likely exceed their diminished shares.

One thing I haven’t seen reported yet is whether the six schools who will be joining the AAC have all agreed to the same $10 million exit fee that applies to current AAC members, despite the fact that they’ll be receiving only $2 million per year in TV money instead of $7 million. If it turns out their exit fee is proportionately lower, the barn door will be wide open for the MWC come 2025.

The MWC announced they weren’t expanding Monday. Perhaps that was due to the AAC’s impending expansion.

Texas State is still on the table if the MWC wants to explore a CTZ school in Texas. IMO, they have just as much potential as UNT and more than UTSA. It’s the fifth largest university in the state and has almost double the endowment of UTSA and it is also higher than UNT’s—which surprised me.

If the MWC really wanted Texas they could invite Texas State and UTEP. The Miners don’t help with the time zone so I’m not sure that would fly.

There is some potential just sitting around: UTA is the fourth largest university in the state. They’ve looked into restarting football before, and if they could split time in Cowboys Stadium and on-campus, it might work. I’m not advocating another UT football program, but they’re no different than UTSA besides having a better basketball arena and being in a larger market.

(10-20-2021 06:22 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(10-20-2021 05:59 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(10-19-2021 10:30 PM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  The key (at least for the American) right now is they have a media partner that is committed to seeing their conference succeed over the next decade; while the MWC is in dire straits if Boise State leaves at or before 2025 (as rumored). They simply have no way to recoup the hit just as their media deal runs out.

Now we all see why Colorado State and Air Force really wanted to leave. They know this is not over, and they don't have the security of a long term deal with a major network.

This has a lot to it. If ESPN is guaranteeing the 2019 billion-dollar deal, then that's a huge advantage for the AAC going forward.

Now, there's no guarantee that the Big 12 expands. I'm very skeptical of the value of a league's 7th football game every week. But if the Big 12 does grab Memphis and Boise State, the AAC has a pretty good chance of recruiting Air Force or Colorado State to replace Memphis, with a bunch of schools in big easy-to-get-to Texas DMAs and a more valuable TV contract.

And if the Big 12 doesn't expand, "full shares for the leftover 8 and half-shares for the 6 new schools" is a better outcome for the leftovers than "add 2 and share equally" or "add 2 and watch ESPN renegotiate the contract"

It’s absolutely a better outcome for the leftovers. The question is whether it gives enough to the newbies to deter a couple of them from turning down potential MWC offers in 2025 that would likely exceed their diminished shares.

One thing I haven’t seen reported yet is whether the six schools who will be joining the AAC have all agreed to the same $10 million exit fee that applies to current AAC members, despite the fact that they’ll be receiving only $2 million per year in TV money instead of $7 million. If it turns out their exit fee is proportionately lower, the barn door will be wide open for the MWC come 2025.

Highly doubt the league would offer a tiered exit fee, because that sets up a potential argument for anyone who departs that they should be able to pay the lower amount. One of the few things the BE/AAC has done really well is collect and use exit fees to float left behind members to not financially fall off a cliff.