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(10-25-2021 05:28 AM)bearcat_df Wrote:  We have a week before the CFP rankings come out (11/3). It will give us a clear picture of our chances. Below I’ve grouped this list into conference scenarios. How many times have 2 teams from the same conference be included?

SEC - 1, unlikely 2
Georgia 7-0
Bama 7-1
Kentucky 6-1 (No Path)
Miss 6-1 (No Path)

Big10 - 1
Michigan St 7-0
Michigan 7-0
Ohio St 6-1
Iowa 6-1

Big12 - 1
Okla 8-0
Oka St 6-1
Baylor 6-1

ACC - unlikely 1
Wake 7-0
Pitt 6-1

PAC 12 - unlikely 1
Oregon

If we are behind Bama, Oregon or Wake it’s clear we will be screwed

Miss and Mich scare me finishing the year with 1 loss against Bama and OSU and don't make the championship game. Would they get in over Cincy...not sure. Oregon will be above us if they win out, little doubt in my mind.

I think Ole Miss has a path. It requires another Bama loss and winning the SEC Championship against Georgia.

(10-25-2021 06:33 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(10-25-2021 06:02 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  Michigan and Michigan State play this weekend and the loser will likely be eliminated from the CFP discussion (unless some form of mayhem occurs and one of these teams still magically wins the Big 10 CCG).

If MSU wins, they still have to play @Purdue, @OSU, and beat Penn State at home.

If Michigan wins, they still have to play @Penn State and beat OSU at home.

OSU running the table seems like the most likely scenario in that league.

If they trip up against Iowa in the CCG, hopefully Iowa was previously dealt a 2nd loss in one of their 3 remaining road games (@Wisconsin, @Northwestern, @Nebraska).

Bolded, having watched Penn State struggle against a poor IL team in State College, I think PSU certainly won't beat MI. Maybe this is the year that the Wolverines finally have OSU's number in Ann Arbor. I wouldn't bet the rent money on it, but odds are they're going to win that game sometime this decade. But it appears increasingly likely that both teams in the B10 CCG will have at least one loss before that kicks off.

Good points. Based on all that, it's probably in our best interest that MSU wins this weekend as they have the much tougher remaining schedule.

(10-25-2021 06:02 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  Michigan and Michigan State play this weekend and the loser will likely be eliminated from the CFP discussion (unless some form of mayhem occurs and one of these teams still magically wins the Big 10 CCG).

If MSU wins, they still have to play @Purdue, @OSU, and beat Penn State at home.

If Michigan wins, they still have to play @Penn State and beat OSU at home.

OSU running the table seems like the most likely scenario in that league.

If they trip up against Iowa in the CCG, hopefully Iowa was previously dealt a 2nd loss in one of their 3 remaining road games (@Wisconsin, @Northwestern, @Nebraska).

1 loss, non division Champ Michigan is a distinct possibility. Their schedule has been meh so far though. I think we pull hard for MSU this weekend.

(10-25-2021 09:50 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(10-25-2021 06:02 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  Michigan and Michigan State play this weekend and the loser will likely be eliminated from the CFP discussion (unless some form of mayhem occurs and one of these teams still magically wins the Big 10 CCG).

If MSU wins, they still have to play @Purdue, @OSU, and beat Penn State at home.

If Michigan wins, they still have to play @Penn State and beat OSU at home.

OSU running the table seems like the most likely scenario in that league.

If they trip up against Iowa in the CCG, hopefully Iowa was previously dealt a 2nd loss in one of their 3 remaining road games (@Wisconsin, @Northwestern, @Nebraska).

1 loss, non division Champ Michigan is a distinct possibility. Their schedule has been meh so far though. I think we pull hard for MSU this weekend.

I'm not worried about one loss Michigan or Michigan State. THey'll be behind UC.

I tend to think so too. I think a 1 loss Oklahoma lands behind us too. I don't want to be left wondering after Championship week though.

While it's great fun to speculate, there are just too many pieces missing from the jigsaw puzzle at this point in the season. It's been said before but all UC can really do is win out and then enjoy a CFP or NY6 bid to cap the finest season in school history. At this point, a degree of risk still remains that we get neither. That's not to be negative, but lots can happen so I'm going to enjoy each autumn weekend in expectation of a promising future turn of events.

Are poll voters enjoying angering SEC and B10 fans with their voting? I actually believe they are to point out the silliness of a four team playoff.

(10-25-2021 10:18 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  While it's great fun to speculate, there are just too many pieces missing from the jigsaw puzzle at this point in the season. It's been said before but all UC can really do is win out and then enjoy a CFP or NY6 bid to cap the finest season in school history. At this point, a degree of risk still remains that we get neither. That's not to be negative, but lots can happen so I'm going to enjoy each autumn weekend in expectation of a promising future turn of events.

Are poll voters enjoying angering SEC and B10 fans with their voting? I actually believe they are to point out the silliness of a four team playoff.

Honestly, I'm kinda seeing it break down very simply. If Alabama, Georgia (disregarding a potential Bama loss), or Oklahoma suffers another loss I feel extremely good about our chances.

(10-25-2021 07:29 AM)bcat1997 Wrote:  

(10-25-2021 05:28 AM)bearcat_df Wrote:  We have a week before the CFP rankings come out (11/3). It will give us a clear picture of our chances. Below I’ve grouped this list into conference scenarios. How many times have 2 teams from the same conference be included?

SEC - 1, unlikely 2
Georgia 7-0
Bama 7-1
Kentucky 6-1 (No Path)
Miss 6-1 (No Path)

Big10 - 1
Michigan St 7-0
Michigan 7-0
Ohio St 6-1
Iowa 6-1

Big12 - 1
Okla 8-0
Oka St 6-1
Baylor 6-1

ACC - unlikely 1
Wake 7-0
Pitt 6-1

PAC 12 - unlikely 1
Oregon

If we are behind Bama, Oregon or Wake it’s clear we will be screwed

Miss and Mich scare me finishing the year with 1 loss against Bama and OSU and don't make the championship game. Would they get in over Cincy...not sure. Oregon will be above us if they win out, little doubt in my mind.

The Ole Miss loss to Bama was brutal. Despite the inevitable espn lobbying for a second SEC team, I really don't think they have shot. They're not a national brand, and they got beat down in their loss. Michigan--assuming they roll MSU and PSU and lose a close one to OSU while OSU goes out and destroys Iowa is the greater threat. The powers that be in cfb have been desperate for Michigan to be nationally relevant again, and I don't like what might happen in the committee room with them. That being said, I think Ohio State blows them out. It's a vengeance game for Day for a couple of reasons.

(10-25-2021 10:58 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote:  The Ole Miss loss to Bama was brutal. Despite the inevitable espn lobbying for a second SEC team, I really don't think they have shot. They're not a national brand, and they got beat down in their loss. Michigan--assuming they roll MSU and PSU and lose a close one to OSU while OSU goes out and destroys Iowa is the greater threat. The powers that be in cfb have been desperate for Michigan to be nationally relevant again, and I don't like what might happen in the committee room with them. That being said, I think Ohio State blows them out. It's a vengeance game for Day for a couple of reasons.

Why is it a vengeance game? I really haven't followed.....

Ole Miss is not making the CFP. Whomever wins the round robin that starts next week with OSU, Michigan and Michigan State likely will.

(10-25-2021 11:40 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Ole Miss is not making the CFP. Whomever wins the round robin that starts next week with OSU, Michigan and Michigan State likely will.

They aren't...because this won't happen...but if Bama loses again and they won out, including beating Georgia in the SEC Championship, they probably would.

(10-25-2021 11:33 AM)geef Wrote:  

(10-25-2021 10:58 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote:  The Ole Miss loss to Bama was brutal. Despite the inevitable espn lobbying for a second SEC team, I really don't think they have shot. They're not a national brand, and they got beat down in their loss. Michigan--assuming they roll MSU and PSU and lose a close one to OSU while OSU goes out and destroys Iowa is the greater threat. The powers that be in cfb have been desperate for Michigan to be nationally relevant again, and I don't like what might happen in the committee room with them. That being said, I think Ohio State blows them out. It's a vengeance game for Day for a couple of reasons.

Why is it a vengeance game? I really haven't followed.....

Harbaugh said something insulting before the 2020 season, and Day reportedly told his team that they were going to "hang a hundred on them." That and OSU believes that Michigan used COVID to run away from that beating last year and do it in a way designed to keep OSU out of the B10 championship game and playoff.

(10-25-2021 01:49 PM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote:  That and OSU believes that Michigan used COVID to run away from that beating last year and do it in a way designed to keep OSU out of the B10 championship game and playoff.

I imagine the OSU people are right on that one.

Teams that actually ARE above Cincy as of now:

Georgia 7-0

(10-25-2021 01:49 PM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote:  

(10-25-2021 11:33 AM)geef Wrote:  

(10-25-2021 10:58 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote:  The Ole Miss loss to Bama was brutal. Despite the inevitable espn lobbying for a second SEC team, I really don't think they have shot. They're not a national brand, and they got beat down in their loss. Michigan--assuming they roll MSU and PSU and lose a close one to OSU while OSU goes out and destroys Iowa is the greater threat. The powers that be in cfb have been desperate for Michigan to be nationally relevant again, and I don't like what might happen in the committee room with them. That being said, I think Ohio State blows them out. It's a vengeance game for Day for a couple of reasons.

Why is it a vengeance game? I really haven't followed.....

Harbaugh said something insulting before the 2020 season, and Day reportedly told his team that they were going to "hang a hundred on them." That and OSU believes that Michigan used COVID to run away from that beating last year and do it in a way designed to keep OSU out of the B10 championship game and playoff.

I guess I forgot that they didn't even play. Not a fan of OSU, but Harbaugh makes me root for Michigan to get crushed every time they play.

(10-25-2021 06:02 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  Michigan and Michigan State play this weekend and the loser will likely be eliminated from the CFP discussion (unless some form of mayhem occurs and one of these teams still magically wins the Big 10 CCG).

If MSU wins, they still have to play @Purdue, @OSU, and beat Penn State at home.

If Michigan wins, they still have to play @Penn State and beat OSU at home.

OSU running the table seems like the most likely scenario in that league.

If they trip up against Iowa in the CCG, hopefully Iowa was previously dealt a 2nd loss in one of their 3 remaining road games (@Wisconsin, @Northwestern, @Nebraska).

Personally I think it would be hilarious if Penn State crashes the party. It's a long shot, but the possibility exists for the Big Ten champion to have 2 losses. Michigan, Michigan State, OSU, and PSU all play each other a lot these last few weeks. If things break just right the east division could be sending a 2 loss team in to play Iowa, and they would likely be the favorites.

If the Big Ten champion has 2 losses is there any way they get in? If UC and Oklahoma win out I don't think they have a chance at all. A long shot, but it's my dream scenario as a Big Ten hater.

(10-26-2021 11:40 AM)bearcats23 Wrote:  

(10-25-2021 06:02 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  Michigan and Michigan State play this weekend and the loser will likely be eliminated from the CFP discussion (unless some form of mayhem occurs and one of these teams still magically wins the Big 10 CCG).

If MSU wins, they still have to play @Purdue, @OSU, and beat Penn State at home.

If Michigan wins, they still have to play @Penn State and beat OSU at home.

OSU running the table seems like the most likely scenario in that league.

If they trip up against Iowa in the CCG, hopefully Iowa was previously dealt a 2nd loss in one of their 3 remaining road games (@Wisconsin, @Northwestern, @Nebraska).

Personally I think it would be hilarious if Penn State crashes the party. It's a long shot, but the possibility exists for the Big Ten champion to have 2 losses. Michigan, Michigan State, OSU, and PSU all play each other a lot these last few weeks. If things break just right the east division could be sending a 2 loss team in to play Iowa, and they would likely be the favorites.

If the Big Ten champion has 2 losses is there any way they get in? If UC and Oklahoma win out I don't think they have a chance at all. A long shot, but it's my dream scenario as a Big Ten hater.

Sure. If Georgia wins out, then the SEC runner-up will have 2 losses. A 2-loss Big Ten champ probably gets the #4 spot over 12-2 Alabama/Ole Miss and 11-1 UK/Notre Dame.

The only other threat in that scenario is if Oregon or Wake Forest runs the table. But I doubt either of those happen.

Also I think a 11-2 Big Ten champ gets in over 12-1 Oregon (unless the Big Ten champ is Ohio State, where Oregon has the head-to-head win).

I refuse to add Kentucky to my list of contenders. Wake Forest too.

Kentucky's remaining schedule isn't exactly Murderer's Row:

@ Mississippi State (4-3)
vs Tennessee (4-4)
@ Vanderbilt (2-6)
vs New Mexico State (1-7)
@ Louisville (4-3)