The unofficial online home for fans of the University of Cincinnati Bearcats. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

So critical that ND, SMU, and Houston keep winning to combat this weak SOS argument.

(11-02-2021 08:20 AM)bcat1997 Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 08:12 AM)uccheese Wrote:  A lot will happen to bump some of these things off the board, but for fun.....The way I would expect them to rank theoretical teams if they exist.

Undefeated Georgia
1 loss Alabama
Undefeated Michigan St
1 loss Georgia
1 loss Ohio St
Undefeated Oklahoma
1 loss Michigan/Michigan St if B10 champs
Undefeated Wake
Undefeated Cincy
1 loss B12 champ
1 loss Oregon
2 loss Bama

If I'm being really honest about it all, the ones that feel like toss ups to me are undefeated Wake, 12-1 Baylor, 12-1 OKST, 12-1 Oregon.

I think these are all in above us. Even a 2-loss Bama scares me but I think that is the cut-off and we would be in above them.

Between UC, Wake, and Oregon, it will come down to style points.

However, Wake Forest has only 2 guys who are considered NFL draft prospects. They're more similar to a G5 who got lucky against a weak schedule than UC is.

Oregon is filled with talent, but they don't have an elite run defense, pass defense, run offense, or passing offense.

With Oregon, the style points definitely aren't there. It's not just the Stanford loss. They haven't blown out anyone other than Colorado and an FCS school. At home, 0-8 Arizona (who is on the short list for the worst FBS team) was within 5 points in the 4th quarter. At home, 3-5 Cal was tied with 5 minutes left. Even at home against Colorado (their only FBS blowout win), they gave up 341 yards and 29 points to the worst offense in FBS (251 yards/game) despite Colorado not forcing any turnovers.

(11-02-2021 08:20 AM)bcat1997 Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 08:12 AM)uccheese Wrote:  A lot will happen to bump some of these things off the board, but for fun.....The way I would expect them to rank theoretical teams if they exist.

Undefeated Georgia
1 loss Alabama
Undefeated Michigan St
1 loss Georgia
1 loss Ohio St
Undefeated Oklahoma
1 loss Michigan/Michigan St if B10 champs
Undefeated Wake
Undefeated Cincy
1 loss B12 champ
1 loss Oregon
2 loss Bama

If I'm being really honest about it all, the ones that feel like toss ups to me are undefeated Wake, 12-1 Baylor, 12-1 OKST, 12-1 Oregon.

I think these are all in above us. Even a 2-loss Bama scares me but I think that is the cut-off and we would be in above them.

If we give them the benefit of the doubt and work under the assumption that it's not just "don't let Cincy in because money", I think these are my takeaways from the rankings...

A 1 loss Oregon is above us and is likely to stay above us. We really need them to lose.
2 loss Alabama is still in the mix. It's not right, but it is what it is.

Now, the good news from the rankings.
I think we can now say that we are ahead of a 1 loss Baylor and a 1 loss OKST even if they win out against a decent schedule.
Undefeated Wake is probably staying below us.

I really don't think it's about money, and if it is, then the committee is being incredibly stupid. The first G5 to make the playoffs would be a huge draw to see how they would do, not to mention that most diehard G5 fans around the country are going to become fans of the Bearcats that night.

Now, if a G5 gets in a couple of times (or maybe even once) and gets ran out of the stadium, then you would probably see a large ratings drop for any future G5 games in the playoffs. The first time though the game would be huge.

(11-04-2021 09:17 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote:  I really don't think it's about money, and if it is, then the committee is being incredibly stupid. The first G5 to make the playoffs would be a huge draw to see how they would do, not to mention that most diehard G5 fans around the country are going to become fans of the Bearcats that night.

Now, if a G5 gets in a couple of times (or maybe even once) and gets ran out of the stadium, then you would probably see a large ratings drop for any future G5 games in the playoffs. The first time though the game would be huge.

You are conflating the networks with the committee. The committee, with 4 members with direct ties to the B10, want to ensure the purse does not go to a G5 school— particularly not UC.

(11-04-2021 09:22 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 09:17 AM)Bearcat 1985 Wrote:  I really don't think it's about money, and if it is, then the committee is being incredibly stupid. The first G5 to make the playoffs would be a huge draw to see how they would do, not to mention that most diehard G5 fans around the country are going to become fans of the Bearcats that night.

Now, if a G5 gets in a couple of times (or maybe even once) and gets ran out of the stadium, then you would probably see a large ratings drop for any future G5 games in the playoffs. The first time though the game would be huge.

You are conflating the networks with the committee. [b]The committee, with 4 members with direct ties to the B10, want to ensure the purse does not go to a G5 school— particularly not UC[/b].

Exactly! The schools AND the conferences that participate in the playoffs benefit not only from the national exposure but get an extra multi-million dollar payday. Why would the SEC and the B1G want to share that with a G5 team?

(11-04-2021 09:06 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 08:20 AM)bcat1997 Wrote:  

(11-02-2021 08:12 AM)uccheese Wrote:  A lot will happen to bump some of these things off the board, but for fun.....The way I would expect them to rank theoretical teams if they exist.

Undefeated Georgia
1 loss Alabama
Undefeated Michigan St
1 loss Georgia
1 loss Ohio St
Undefeated Oklahoma
1 loss Michigan/Michigan St if B10 champs
Undefeated Wake
Undefeated Cincy
1 loss B12 champ
1 loss Oregon
2 loss Bama

If I'm being really honest about it all, the ones that feel like toss ups to me are undefeated Wake, 12-1 Baylor, 12-1 OKST, 12-1 Oregon.

I think these are all in above us. Even a 2-loss Bama scares me but I think that is the cut-off and we would be in above them.

If we give them the benefit of the doubt and work under the assumption that it's not just "don't let Cincy in because money", I think these are my takeaways from the rankings...

A 1 loss Oregon is above us and is likely to stay above us. We really need them to lose.
2 loss Alabama is still in the mix. It's not right, but it is what it is.

Now, the good news from the rankings.
I think we can now say that we are ahead of a 1 loss Baylor and a 1 loss OKST even if they win out against a decent schedule.
Undefeated Wake is probably staying below us.

Whoever comes out of the BIG12 with max 1-loss and undefeated Wake would be in above us IMO. I don't think we are going to make it, but would love for it to come down to 2-loss Bama and undefeated Cincy for the last spot. Make this clown committee squirm.

If the committee functioned with any measure of predictability or rationality, we actually would feel pretty good about our spot. The probability that all of Michigan State (or OSU), Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma all pickup a loss still favors us strongly. Unfortunately, we have to account for bizarre scenarios where teams like 1-loss Michigan or 2 - loss Bama get in over us. Nonetheless...

I think the best scenario as I look at it now is this:

1. Bama loses to Auburn
-or- Oklahoma, Baylor, and OK State split their games (OK State already beat Baylor)

2. Oregon loses at any point
3. OSU dominates Michigan State and Michigan.
-or-
Michigan State wins out


That makes it Georgia, OSU, Cincinnati, and Alabama or Georgia, OSU, Cincinnati and Oklahoma.

Wake has a path but is super unlikely to win out. The ACC is done. The Pac 12 should be done but I think Oregon drops one somewhere and the comittee no longer has to worry about their head to head with OSU.

Many think Ohio State wins out. Perfect. I think Michigan State needs to lose 2 but our resume is very favorably compared to theirs even if they only have 1 loss.

Variables: Michigan and ND performance the rest of the way. The Irish are very favorably in the top 10. Michigan is looking at some losses.

I'm gonna be watching Oregon, MSU, and Oklahoma hard over the next 3 weeks. There are some losses coming there.

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It’s not a legitimate system. No matter who loses they will rig it to keep us out and protect the money.

(11-04-2021 01:09 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  I'm gonna be watching Oregon, MSU, and Oklahoma hard over the next 3 weeks. There are some losses coming there.

Michigan State loses: Oh, put in Ohio State

Oklahoma loses: Oh, put in Oklahoma State or Baylor

Oregon loses: Oh, put in Wake Forest or another Big Ten team. Hey, Notre Dame is looking strong these days.

(11-04-2021 02:55 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 01:09 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  I'm gonna be watching Oregon, MSU, and Oklahoma hard over the next 3 weeks. There are some losses coming there.

Michigan State loses: Oh, put in Ohio State

Oklahoma loses: Oh, put in Oklahoma State or Baylor

Oregon loses: Oh, put in Wake Forest or another Big Ten team. Hey, Notre Dame is looking strong these days.

The probability we get screwed by the committee is > 0.99.

But, not gonna let that ruin the fun.


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Updated after WK10. Eliminated: Wake (removing 1 loss here) and Baylor. Michigan St adds a loss. But I'm getting very concerned that 2 loss above us is also in play with the way we're playing.

Oregon 8-1
Okla 9-0
Okla St 8-1
Michigan St 8-1
Michigan 8-1
Ohio St 8-1
Georgia 9-0
Bama 8-1

Oklahoma @ Baylor and Michigan @ Penn State are the two biggest games for us next Saturday

(11-07-2021 11:44 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  Oklahoma @ Baylor and Michigan @ Penn State are the two biggest games for us next Saturday

WRONG....the game in Tampa is the most important.....

Here ya go...

Michigan State picking up a loss was very expected. So now I think it breaks down to 2 of Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, and Oklahoma taking another loss. Those losses cannot be 1. a close Bama loss to Georgia 2. An OSU to Michigan State or 3. Oklahoma losing to Ok State twice (the big 12 will be interesting).

I know most think a 2 loss Bama or 1-loss Oklahoma gets in over us. Not sure yet. I think a two loss Oregon and two loss Ohio State likely is done.

Notre Dame is getting better and may generate playoff noise as those 2 loss teams accumulate. Having a 1-loss Irish directly behinds us completely buffers the arguments against us.

(11-07-2021 03:01 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

Here ya go...

Michigan State picking up a loss was very expected. So now I think it breaks down to 2 of Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, and Oklahoma taking another loss. Those losses cannot be 1. a close Bama loss to Georgia 2. An OSU to Michigan State or 3. Oklahoma losing to Ok State twice (the big 12 will be interesting).

I know most think a 2 loss Bama or 1-loss Oklahoma gets in over us. Not sure yet. I think a two loss Oregon and two loss Ohio State likely is done.

Notre Dame is getting better and may generate playoff noise as those 2 loss teams accumulate. Having a 1-loss Irish directly behinds us completely buffers the arguments against us.

Utah and Tavion Thomas will take down The Ducks.

They're certainly a strong favorite now.

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(11-07-2021 11:44 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  Oklahoma @ Baylor and Michigan @ Penn State are the two biggest games for us next Saturday

SMU will play us like Tulsa. ECU at home can be trouble. Our strategy flaws are obvious to the ignorant. Get smart and easily win out. Ignore the obvious and risk it all. It is that simple.

SMU passes the ball like crazy. Our defense is designed to play teams like them.