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It finally happens YAWN
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #41
RE: It finally happens YAWN
(10-14-2021 09:20 AM)RobUCF Wrote:  
(10-14-2021 07:45 AM)JTApps1 Wrote:  
(10-14-2021 05:32 AM)jaybird44 Wrote:  The AAC finally will pick 4 and they will pick 4 that can afford the budget and the other conferences make the small adjustments and the college realignment fiasco of 2021 will finally be over. This is all so easy to predict. Just follow the money.

AAC EAST- Temple, ODU, Charlotte, East Carolina,UAB, USF
AAC WEST- Navy, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Rice

CUSA picks Liberty and Georgia State

SUN BELT reloads with James Madison

Not to difficult to figure out because of BUDGETS and MONEY.

No big surprises. Thoughts? I would rather the region idea to work, but AAC will not go for it. Thoughts???

CUSA taking anyone from the SBC is wishful thinking. The most likely outcome is CUSA will lose between 4 and 6 of the following schools:

Marshall, UAB, USM, ODU, UNCC, WKU, FAU and UTSA


That means CUSA will either stay put at 10 if they only lose 4, or they'll need to add a few FCS teams (maybe Liberty) to get to 10 or 12.

What I don't understand is that, like yourself, most are speculating that the AAC will take teams from C-USA. Since the AAC could easily take teams from either C-USA or the Sunbelt, and the AAC will be looking for the most valuable programs available, this implies that the most valuable programs are in C-USA.

But then you state that C-USA taking anyone from the Belt is wishful thinking. These two positions seem contradictory to me. If Sunbelt teams have greater/equivalent value as C-USA teams, shouldn't the speculation be that the Belt will lose teams instead?

For those who would argue that the SBC could raid CUSA today ... that's a fair point.

For those who would argue that neither could raid the other today, then the SBC being able to attract CUSA schools from the post AAC raid CUSA is more plausible, since it seems like that the schools you'd want to stay for are the ones that are on their way out the door.

And if they are in fact on level footing, it doesn't mean that there can't be movement, since post-raid, some CUSA schools will be more unhappy with the result than others.
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2021 12:23 PM by BruceMcF.)
10-14-2021 12:19 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #42
RE: It finally happens YAWN
(10-14-2021 11:12 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(10-14-2021 10:32 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Thus, I think the AAC goes small for now. UAB and Buffalo. UAB and Marshall. UAB and App St. UAB and LaTech. It will be some pairing of UAB with another top SB/CUSA/MAC school. No need to gamble at this time on the potential of schools with zero value right now. ESPN does not pay a "you added them early" bonus for adding a school a decade or two before they have any discernible value. However, as CUSA has found---there is a substantial market penalty for adding schools purely on potential if that potential does not quickly pan out. Those schools will always be available down the road if needed. The Charlotte's of the world aren't going anywhere.

Knowing that the AAC will likely pick the team with the most wins to go along with UAB, the number of wins from 2015-2019 for the above mentioned teams are: App St - 54, La Tech - 43, Marshall - 38, and Buffalo - 30. Given this fact, the choice would be App St with the most wins. Of course there are other factors too to be considered like athletic budgets, viewership, endowment, academics, non-football programs, etc.

For mens basketball, the Sagarin ratings are: La Tech - 78.38, Buffalo - 78.31, Marshall - 77.16, and App St - 69.67. But the AAC is primarily about football and viewership.
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2021 12:56 PM by SMUstang.)
10-14-2021 12:48 PM
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HawaiiMongoose Online
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Post: #43
RE: It finally happens YAWN
(10-14-2021 05:32 AM)jaybird44 Wrote:  The AAC finally will pick 4 and they will pick 4 that can afford the budget and the other conferences make the small adjustments and the college realignment fiasco of 2021 will finally be over. This is all so easy to predict. Just follow the money.

AAC EAST- Temple, ODU, Charlotte, East Carolina,UAB, USF
AAC WEST- Navy, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Rice

I agree that budget is a key decision driver. But depite ODU’s CUSA-leading $49 million budget, I could see ECU blocking them from joining the AAC in an effort to stay a step ahead of a nearby rival.

In lieu of ODU I’m tempted to go with FAU, which has a $40 million budget that’s comparable to Charlotte’s $41 million and which ticks enough other boxes (academics, market, some football success) to fill the final spot. But USF could block FAU for the same reason ECU blocks ODU.

So my dark horse pick for the final AAC addition after UAB, Rice and Charlotte is Coastal Carolina. Its $42 million budget exceeds both Charlotte’s and FAU’s and is the largest in the Sun Belt.

Coastal Carolina isn’t strong academically, but neither was Boise State in 2010. The MWC added them anyhow because they were the football powerhouse in the next strongest conference in the MWC’s footprint. Also like Boise State, Coastal Carolina isn’t in a big city but the surrounding metro area is growing rapidly and easy to reach (Myrtle Beach’s airport has direct flights to over 50 destinations nationally including Dallas and Philadelphia). And of course what seals the deal is the turf factor: if you can’t have blue turf in your conference the obvious next best option is teal.
10-14-2021 02:14 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #44
RE: It finally happens YAWN
(10-14-2021 02:14 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(10-14-2021 05:32 AM)jaybird44 Wrote:  The AAC finally will pick 4 and they will pick 4 that can afford the budget and the other conferences make the small adjustments and the college realignment fiasco of 2021 will finally be over. This is all so easy to predict. Just follow the money.

AAC EAST- Temple, ODU, Charlotte, East Carolina,UAB, USF
AAC WEST- Navy, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Rice

I agree that budget is a key decision driver. But depite ODU’s CUSA-leading $49 million budget, I could see ECU blocking them from joining the AAC in an effort to stay a step ahead of a nearby rival.

In lieu of ODU I’m tempted to go with FAU, which has a $40 million budget that’s comparable to Charlotte’s $41 million and which ticks enough other boxes (academics, market, some football success) to fill the final spot. But USF could block FAU for the same reason ECU blocks ODU.

So my dark horse pick for the final AAC addition after UAB, Rice and Charlotte is Coastal Carolina. Its $42 million budget exceeds both Charlotte’s and FAU’s and is the largest in the Sun Belt.

Coastal Carolina isn’t strong academically, but neither was Boise State in 2010. The MWC added them anyhow because they were the football powerhouse in the next strongest conference in the MWC’s footprint. Also like Boise State, Coastal Carolina isn’t in a big city but the surrounding metro area is growing rapidly and easy to reach (Myrtle Beach’s airport has direct flights to over 50 destinations nationally including Dallas and Philadelphia). And of course what seals the deal is the turf factor: if you can’t have blue turf in your conference the obvious next best option is teal.

That would be a massive about face from ECU, because ODU is only in C-USA right now because Terry Holland pushed hard for their inclusion and at that time ECU had enough power in the very weakened C-USA to make demands. Now it's possible ECU feels differently now under completely new leadership, but ECU in general has typically favored some levels of regionalization to a point. Where that line is drawn is if it's a choice between the most regional option or being at the highest level possible they always pick option B, but they push for regionalization at the highest level possible.
10-14-2021 02:21 PM
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HawaiiMongoose Online
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Post: #45
RE: It finally happens YAWN
(10-14-2021 02:21 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(10-14-2021 02:14 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  
(10-14-2021 05:32 AM)jaybird44 Wrote:  The AAC finally will pick 4 and they will pick 4 that can afford the budget and the other conferences make the small adjustments and the college realignment fiasco of 2021 will finally be over. This is all so easy to predict. Just follow the money.

AAC EAST- Temple, ODU, Charlotte, East Carolina,UAB, USF
AAC WEST- Navy, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU, Rice

I agree that budget is a key decision driver. But depite ODU’s CUSA-leading $49 million budget, I could see ECU blocking them from joining the AAC in an effort to stay a step ahead of a nearby rival.

In lieu of ODU I’m tempted to go with FAU, which has a $40 million budget that’s comparable to Charlotte’s $41 million and which ticks enough other boxes (academics, market, some football success) to fill the final spot. But USF could block FAU for the same reason ECU blocks ODU.

So my dark horse pick for the final AAC addition after UAB, Rice and Charlotte is Coastal Carolina. Its $42 million budget exceeds both Charlotte’s and FAU’s and is the largest in the Sun Belt.

Coastal Carolina isn’t strong academically, but neither was Boise State in 2010. The MWC added them anyhow because they were the football powerhouse in the next strongest conference in the MWC’s footprint. Also like Boise State, Coastal Carolina isn’t in a big city but the surrounding metro area is growing rapidly and easy to reach (Myrtle Beach’s airport has direct flights to over 50 destinations nationally including Dallas and Philadelphia). And of course what seals the deal is the turf factor: if you can’t have blue turf in your conference the obvious next best option is teal.

That would be a massive about face from ECU, because ODU is only in C-USA right now because Terry Holland pushed hard for their inclusion and at that time ECU had enough power in the very weakened C-USA to make demands. Now it's possible ECU feels differently now under completely new leadership, but ECU in general has typically favored some levels of regionalization to a point. Where that line is drawn is if it's a choice between the most regional option or being at the highest level possible they always pick option B, but they push for regionalization at the highest level possible.

Interesting. I wasn't aware of that history. Thanks for sharing.
10-14-2021 04:18 PM
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jaybird44 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: It finally happens YAWN
Look, I know I sound like a homer. I really don't know what will happen to CUSA, but barring something crazy happening like MWC taking SMU, I think Rice, UAB, ODU, and Charlotte is gonna be a done deal. If the AAC was smart they should consider Marshall and UTSA as well, but 12 seems to be the way to go. I personally would rather see the regional deal go through, but I don't see that happening
10-17-2021 09:42 AM
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UConnHusky Offline
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Post: #47
RE: It finally happens YAWN
UConn shouldn’t go to CUSA or the MAC as a football only. We currently schedule P5 teams at home as an Indy. They aren’t coming if we are in one of those two leagues. As there isn’t a northeastern equivalent of the AAC, Indy makes the most sense for UConn at the moment.

It may be a different story for UMass as they aren’t hosting nearly as many P5 schools as UConn.
10-17-2021 10:07 AM
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