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The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #1
The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
So again a lot has happened this week. C-USA is down to its last strike and hoping for a 10-run bottom of the ninth through regionalization. I don't foresee that happening.

What I do foresee is the American adding four schools by the time college basketball season begins. The obvious choice is UAB. According to our board insider, Matt Brown, another choice as of now appears to be leaning in the direction of Charlotte. The last two remaining spots will go to Rice (2nd Texas school with great academics to appease Navy) and Marshall (good all around athletics and helps Temple with geography).

West: Navy, Tulsa, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Memphis
East: UAB, Charlotte, Marshall, Temple, USF, ECU

The Mountain West will get in the action as well. Colorado State and Air Force are dying to get into the central time zone and will get their wish with the additions of North Texas and UTSA.

West: SDSU, SJSU, Fresno St., Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, Boise State
East: Wyoming, UNM, AFA, CSU, USU, UNT, UTSA

The MAC looks around and stands pat.

The Sun Belt then makes its move. It politely helps its basketball schools find new homes and then invites two schools to get to 12 overall: Southern Miss and Old Dominion

West: Louisiana, Texas St., UL Monroe, USA, Ark St., Troy
East: Southern Miss, ODU, CCU, App State, Georgia So., Georgia St.

This leaves C-USA with just six schools: FAU, FIU, MTSU, WKU, UTEP, LaTech. Survival mode sets in. They start by adding NMSU and Liberty. That gets them back to 8. Their choice becomes going to 10 or 12 by adding 2 or 4 FCS schools. I think they add two: James Madison and Missouri State.

West: NMSU, UTEP, LaTech, Missouri State, WKU
East: MTSU, Liberty, JMU, FAU, FIU
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2021 09:55 PM by shizzle787.)
10-13-2021 09:52 PM
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Shannon Panther Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
I have nothing against Marshall, but Buffalo makes a lot more sense from a viewership perspective. NY is a top 5 state in population. WV is near the bottom. A small percentage of the Buffalo market would trump the entirety of the Huntington, WV market. Buffalo has 260,000 living alumni vs Marshall who has 91,000. Buffalo has a student body of 32,000 vs Marshall's enrollment of 12,000. As far as giving Temple a geographic partner, it is a 6.5 hour drive from Temple to UB. It is 8 hours and 20 minutes from Temple to Marshall. Marshall has had better success athletically, but Buffalo has done well enough that when you look at the entire package, they seem like a good choice.
10-13-2021 10:53 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).
10-13-2021 11:06 PM
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All4One Online
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

Exactly. ODU with their basketball rich traditions would never make such a move. The Sun Belt doesn't give a crap in the least about their basketball product. One NCAA Tournament win by this current Sun Belt membership is not going to impress them when CUSA has raked in five such wins in the same time frame.
10-13-2021 11:11 PM
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CarlSmithCenter Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

Sun Belt adds La Tech and USM.
AAC adds UAB, Rice, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, and Buffalo.
UConn to the MAC FB-only.
CUSA (FAU, FIU, WKU, MTSU, UNT, UTSA, and UTEP) adds NMSU, Liberty, and 3-5 FCS call-ups who would accept (not JMU) like Sam Houston, EKU, NC A&T, Chattanooga, Jacksonville St., Kennesaw State, North Alabama, Missouri State, Lamar, Tennessee State, ETSU, SE LA etc.
10-13-2021 11:32 PM
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bullet Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-13-2021 11:11 PM)All4One Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

Exactly. ODU with their basketball rich traditions would never make such a move. The Sun Belt doesn't give a crap in the least about their basketball product. One NCAA Tournament win by this current Sun Belt membership is not going to impress them when CUSA has raked in five such wins in the same time frame.

The Sun Belt is a clear rung below CUSA on every metric but TV money, where they are equal, and football strength the last 3 years, where they have an advantage.

I think all this moving from CUSA to Sun Belt is a Sun Belt fantasy. The 7 eastern schools have no reason to join the Sun Belt as they like being together. And the 5 westernmost schools have no reason to join the Sun Belt. UAB is probably going to the AAC and USM just is not likely to take a step down in status either.
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2021 11:36 PM by bullet.)
10-13-2021 11:35 PM
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CoachMaclid Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-13-2021 10:53 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  I have nothing against Marshall, but Buffalo makes a lot more sense from a viewership perspective.

Then why does Marshall consistently generate higher national TV viewers than anyone in the C-USA, MAC, or Sun Belt?

The "market" strategy is a losing strategy as has been proven by C-USA.
10-13-2021 11:56 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
Next Domino:

Three week from today Mike Aresco announces the American will give invites out in the next few weeks to a month. 07-coffee3 03-yawn 03-zzz
10-14-2021 01:43 AM
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All4One Online
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-14-2021 01:43 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Next Domino:

Three week from today Mike Aresco announces the American will give invites out in the next few weeks to a month. 07-coffee3 03-yawn 03-zzz

Yep! Pretty much! Hahahaha!
10-14-2021 01:56 AM
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Duke Dawg Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-13-2021 09:52 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  So again a lot has happened this week. C-USA is down to its last strike and hoping for a 10-run bottom of the ninth through regionalization. I don't foresee that happening.

What I do foresee is the American adding four schools by the time college basketball season begins. The obvious choice is UAB. According to our board insider, Matt Brown, another choice as of now appears to be leaning in the direction of Charlotte. The last two remaining spots will go to Rice (2nd Texas school with great academics to appease Navy) and Marshall (good all around athletics and helps Temple with geography).

West: Navy, Tulsa, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Memphis
East: UAB, Charlotte, Marshall, Temple, USF, ECU

The Mountain West will get in the action as well. Colorado State and Air Force are dying to get into the central time zone and will get their wish with the additions of North Texas and UTSA.

West: SDSU, SJSU, Fresno St., Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, Boise State
East: Wyoming, UNM, AFA, CSU, USU, UNT, UTSA

The MAC looks around and stands pat.

The Sun Belt then makes its move. It politely helps its basketball schools find new homes and then invites two schools to get to 12 overall: Southern Miss and Old Dominion

West: Louisiana, Texas St., UL Monroe, USA, Ark St., Troy
East: Southern Miss, ODU, CCU, App State, Georgia So., Georgia St.

This leaves C-USA with just six schools: FAU, FIU, MTSU, WKU, UTEP, LaTech. Survival mode sets in. They start by adding NMSU and Liberty. That gets them back to 8. Their choice becomes going to 10 or 12 by adding 2 or 4 FCS schools. I think they add two: James Madison and Missouri State.

West: NMSU, UTEP, LaTech, Missouri State, WKU
East: MTSU, Liberty, JMU, FAU, FIU

Not in a million years would JMU join that leftover six in CUSA. Nothing in common, no history, won’t happen. We’ll stay fcs and caa if it goes down like all that. But I also don’t think it will go that way.
10-14-2021 03:39 AM
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RamblinRedWolf Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-13-2021 11:32 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

Sun Belt adds La Tech and USM.
AAC adds UAB, Rice, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, and Buffalo.
UConn to the MAC FB-only.
CUSA (FAU, FIU, WKU, MTSU, UNT, UTSA, and UTEP) adds NMSU, Liberty, and 3-5 FCS call-ups who would accept (not JMU) like Sam Houston, EKU, NC A&T, Chattanooga, Jacksonville St., Kennesaw State, North Alabama, Missouri State, Lamar, Tennessee State, ETSU, SE LA etc.

La tech would rather die as a program than join the SBC (and most from the league wouldn’t complain if that happened).
10-14-2021 05:10 AM
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All4One Online
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-14-2021 05:10 AM)RamblinRedWolf Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:32 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

Sun Belt adds La Tech and USM.
AAC adds UAB, Rice, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, and Buffalo.
UConn to the MAC FB-only.
CUSA (FAU, FIU, WKU, MTSU, UNT, UTSA, and UTEP) adds NMSU, Liberty, and 3-5 FCS call-ups who would accept (not JMU) like Sam Houston, EKU, NC A&T, Chattanooga, Jacksonville St., Kennesaw State, North Alabama, Missouri State, Lamar, Tennessee State, ETSU, SE LA etc.

La tech would rather die as a program than join the SBC (and most from the league wouldn’t complain if that happened).

Mostly in Jonesboro and Lafayette. Not totally shocking. Jealousy and self-entitlement does that. Had Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State managed their exits from the failed Big West better rather than allowing themselves to decay for years while an Independent, they might very well had been chosen first for CUSA when they came to the Sun Belt in 2012, and they absolutely would've went.
10-14-2021 06:53 AM
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chuckk3 Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-14-2021 05:10 AM)RamblinRedWolf Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:32 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

Sun Belt adds La Tech and USM.
AAC adds UAB, Rice, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, and Buffalo.
UConn to the MAC FB-only.
CUSA (FAU, FIU, WKU, MTSU, UNT, UTSA, and UTEP) adds NMSU, Liberty, and 3-5 FCS call-ups who would accept (not JMU) like Sam Houston, EKU, NC A&T, Chattanooga, Jacksonville St., Kennesaw State, North Alabama, Missouri State, Lamar, Tennessee State, ETSU, SE LA etc.

La tech would rather die as a program than join the SBC (and most from the league wouldn’t complain if that happened).

The first part of your statement is not true at all. Nothing should ever be off the table.

I have no words for the second part...who wishes death on a program of 18-22 year old student-athletes?
10-14-2021 07:04 AM
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

UB's "cone of influence" goes to the city's south east. A huge number of our alumni are in the NYC to DC corridor. Depending on who else is added UB would be interested.

I don't think if you're adding the three other schools mentioned it would appeal to UB but if it were Buffalo / Marshall / App State / UAB then I think UB is interested.
10-14-2021 07:12 AM
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-14-2021 03:39 AM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 09:52 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  So again a lot has happened this week. C-USA is down to its last strike and hoping for a 10-run bottom of the ninth through regionalization. I don't foresee that happening.

What I do foresee is the American adding four schools by the time college basketball season begins. The obvious choice is UAB. According to our board insider, Matt Brown, another choice as of now appears to be leaning in the direction of Charlotte. The last two remaining spots will go to Rice (2nd Texas school with great academics to appease Navy) and Marshall (good all around athletics and helps Temple with geography).

West: Navy, Tulsa, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Memphis
East: UAB, Charlotte, Marshall, Temple, USF, ECU

The Mountain West will get in the action as well. Colorado State and Air Force are dying to get into the central time zone and will get their wish with the additions of North Texas and UTSA.

West: SDSU, SJSU, Fresno St., Hawaii, Nevada, UNLV, Boise State
East: Wyoming, UNM, AFA, CSU, USU, UNT, UTSA

The MAC looks around and stands pat.

The Sun Belt then makes its move. It politely helps its basketball schools find new homes and then invites two schools to get to 12 overall: Southern Miss and Old Dominion

West: Louisiana, Texas St., UL Monroe, USA, Ark St., Troy
East: Southern Miss, ODU, CCU, App State, Georgia So., Georgia St.

This leaves C-USA with just six schools: FAU, FIU, MTSU, WKU, UTEP, LaTech. Survival mode sets in. They start by adding NMSU and Liberty. That gets them back to 8. Their choice becomes going to 10 or 12 by adding 2 or 4 FCS schools. I think they add two: James Madison and Missouri State.

West: NMSU, UTEP, LaTech, Missouri State, WKU
East: MTSU, Liberty, JMU, FAU, FIU

Not in a million years would JMU join that leftover six in CUSA. Nothing in common, no history, won’t happen. We’ll stay fcs and caa if it goes down like all that. But I also don’t think it will go that way.

Have to agree. That makes the current CUSA look like the Taj Mahal.
10-14-2021 07:29 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-14-2021 07:12 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

UB's "cone of influence" goes to the city's south east. A huge number of our alumni are in the NYC to DC corridor. Depending on who else is added UB would be interested.

I don't think if you're adding the three other schools mentioned it would appeal to UB but if it were Buffalo / Marshall / App State / UAB then I think UB is interested.


I would be fine with having Buffalo in the league. Have seen the campus and it's very nice. A quality combo of football, hoops, academic and location.
10-14-2021 08:15 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-13-2021 11:11 PM)All4One Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

Exactly. ODU with their basketball rich traditions would never make such a move. The Sun Belt doesn't give a crap in the least about their basketball product. One NCAA Tournament win by this current Sun Belt membership is not going to impress them when CUSA has raked in five such wins in the same time frame.


Yep. I can't foresee ODU joining the Belt.
10-14-2021 08:17 AM
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-14-2021 07:12 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

UB's "cone of influence" goes to the city's south east. A huge number of our alumni are in the NYC to DC corridor. Depending on who else is added UB would be interested.

I don't think if you're adding the three other schools mentioned it would appeal to UB but if it were Buffalo / Marshall / App State / UAB then I think UB is interested.

I'm starting to become more and more convinced the AAC has to find the group of schools who have the ability to get their budget in line with the AAC and who have the commitment to go all in and aren't worried about travel or costs and are willing to spend beyond their means if necessary to succeed at the highest level. Not saying this as an insult to Buffalo, but not add schools who are like "well we could be interested if you add enough schools to make this comfortable for us". Who are those schools though? I don't know.
10-14-2021 08:34 AM
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-13-2021 11:56 PM)CoachMaclid Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 10:53 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  I have nothing against Marshall, but Buffalo makes a lot more sense from a viewership perspective.

Then why does Marshall consistently generate higher national TV viewers than anyone in the C-USA, MAC, or Sun Belt?

Also Marshall has a 38,000 seat stadium and deep FB tradition going back 30 years.
10-14-2021 08:34 AM
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RE: The next dominoes (October 13 edition)
(10-14-2021 08:34 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(10-14-2021 07:12 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:06 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  shizzle787's assessment seems very solid. However, the "ODU to the Sun Belt" element made me take pause.

Buffalo is an interesting option for the AAC (assuming UB would be interested).

UB's "cone of influence" goes to the city's south east. A huge number of our alumni are in the NYC to DC corridor. Depending on who else is added UB would be interested.

I don't think if you're adding the three other schools mentioned it would appeal to UB but if it were Buffalo / Marshall / App State / UAB then I think UB is interested.

I'm starting to become more and more convinced the AAC has to find the group of schools who have the ability to get their budget in line with the AAC and who have the commitment to go all in and aren't worried about travel or costs and are willing to spend beyond their means if necessary to succeed at the highest level. Not saying this as an insult to Buffalo, but not add schools who are like "well we could be interested if you add enough schools to make this comfortable for us". Who are those schools though? I don't know.

I agree with this. I believe that when all this happens, there will be some surprises.
10-14-2021 08:37 AM
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