(10-18-2021 08:19 PM)trephin Wrote: forgetting the derision and the realistic chances of these 2 schools, as i understand you the premise is good OOC/ bad In Conference ..
what are you looking for in the OOC win percentage? i assume in conference doesn't matter / below .500?
wouldn't Duquesne be part of a recency bias .. maybe just 2 years under dambrot and MAAYBE the everhart years?
SBU would be less so having good runs with schmidt and baron
i think they stay at 11 but are you also proposing they go beyond 12?
Yeah, you get the gist of it. You can find extremely long, detailed explanations on the Holy Land of Hoops boards, where I actually won some converts to my line of thinking. I'll try to keep it short.
Conference play is zero-sum: 10 team Big East, 18 games = 90-90. With UConn, 110-110 conference record. Because about half the league is gonna be under .500, they're capping themselves at 6 teams max, 7 with UConn. But the difference between 3rd and 9th is FREAKISHLY TINY with their membership, so they're not getting a true "tiered separation" like some other leagues, so they've averaged less than half their size in bid numbers.
If they had gone a different route at the outset... I'll use Detroit and Duquesne instead of the Bonnies, because we know they sucked for a decade and the Bonnies didn't.
18 game schedule, Duquesne in the East, Detroit in the West. Duquesne might have upset a rebuilding GTown or St John's at home, and beaten Detroit. But they're going 3-15 max. Detroit is probably going 1-17 or 0-18.
So the other 10 would have been 104-76 instead of 90 and 90. Look at the Big East standings and add 2.5 conference wins to teams 5-9 in the Big East... They'd be AVERAGING 6.5 bids.
It's counter-intuitive, for sure, but that's how conference play works.
But adding "bad teams" makes the league less strong, right? Not necessarily. Duquesne has done an admirable job in the A-10 of scheduling weak OOC to not hurt the league. You add $5 million in TV revenue to their budgets and now they don't have to go play OOC road games like they do in the A-10. Duquesne will play WVU and Pitt or Penn State.
You just let them know when you talk to them to invite them: We want you to play the worst 12 teams in Division I, all at home in OOC play. Your goal is to be 12-0 when Big East play starts.
All they have to do is MATCH the Big East OOC win percentage, and the league stays the same strength in the NET/RPI numbers. Duquesne and Detroit don't need OOC SOS, because if they finish .500 in the Big East, they're having enough marquee wins to get a bid, period.
Your SOS = the average win percentage of your opponents. But 19+ opponents are CONFERENCE TEAMS. So the overall record of your conference opponents matters a lot more than "playing a tough OOC schedule."
Conferences go .500 against each other, so the way to make your conference game SOS high is to have the whole league post good OOC records.
If my school is picked to finish 8th in the Big East, and we go 11-1 OOC, and finish 8th in the Big East at 6-12, we are 17-13.
If your school is picked to finish 9th in the Big East and goes 11-1 OOC and finish 9th in the Big East at 5-13, you are 16-14.
When teams 1-7 in the Big East play us, they're playing 17-13, and 16-14. Their SOS is high even though we got those records by buying guarantee games against 5-26 teams from the MEAC, SWAC and NEC.