(10-13-2021 09:36 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote: I think the KEY question here is does the MW take two from Texas or NOT?? IF they do then there is a possibility that C-USA dies.
AAC-- six ( five CUSA, 1 SBC)
SBC-- three from C-USA
AND the tipping point... IF MW takes two from Texas then CUSA is down to FOUR...
You say-- "Well they can still add four and go to eight"--- Maybe-- but then the final hammer drops as the SBC takes two more to get to fourteen.
Two schools left go Indy or back to FCS.
Why would the SBC take two more? Reduces competition in the South from another league for recruits, media, and fans. Also reduces travel costs as tight divisional play and close rivalries kick in. Increases share of CFP money even though it is split among fourteen. League commissions a study for a possible conference name change.
Of course if the MW takes none and/or the AAC takes four or less------ C-USA lives.
A large part of it would depend on how fast moves are announced.
Say the AAC strikes first, bringing C-USA down to nine. The East wants an addition, so they ask for JMU. The west wants an addition, so they ask for NMSU. The jury is out on #12, because three schools are looking to hit the exits.
So then Southern Miss and two others leave for the Sun Belt. C-USA takes Lamar and Kennesaw State.
UTSA and UNT them defect to the Mountain West, and are immediately replaced by Sam Houston and Stephen F. Austin.
The Sun Belt then makes their final pull. Those schools are replaced by Missouri State and Kennesaw State.
UConn and UMass join for football only.
CUSA
West - NMSU, UTEP, SFA, SHSU, Lamar, MSU
East - JMU, KSU, EKU, ODU, UConn, UMass