(10-13-2021 01:40 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:32 PM)Bogg Wrote:  I doubt they get raided down to 4, and if they're at 6 it's just too easy to go back to 8 and grab an affiliate or two to get to whatever minimum number you're comfortable with.

If CUSA gets raided down to 6, those 6 are going to be looking for other options to ensure the stability of their athletic deparment

Would UTEP looking to be the WAC #14?
Would FIU and FAU look to the ASUN?

None of this is ideal, but having the NMSU/UMass setup beats having no conference at all

UTEP isn't jumping to the WAC and football independence - they'll insist on NMSt for a local partner. Even if they're left with, say, UTEP, La Tech, and the Floridas they'll add NMSt, try to get Liberty/JMU, and if that fails go and get, like, Missouri State/EKU/Jacksonville State to get to 8. Maybe double back to Liberty and/or UConn/UMass as affiliates to get to 10. Maybe NDSU is more concerned with actually getting an FBS invite and figuring it out from there than they are finding a perfect fit.

(10-13-2021 01:49 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:45 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:42 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:38 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:35 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  If you go to 4, you could probably get NMSU and Liberty, but why would they want to join that league for non-football sports?

Well, I can't imagine New Mexico State or Liberty passing up an opportunity to be in an FBS conference that carries direct bowl bids and is extended a sizable chunk from the CFP distribution moreso than they would get as Independents.

Liberty already has a direct bowl bid in the ESPN event pool

as for CFP money, who knows what that will look like next go round.

Liberty's bowl bid is not direct. It is contingent to there being no available Gang of 5 school to fill the bid. I checked into it.

Fair enough but ESPN takes care of their own and Liberty has gone all in with ESPN. I don't think Liberty is worried about missing out on a bowl anytime soon.

I'm sure they'll try to help Liberty as much as they can, but their bids are more guaranteed when they are in a conference. That's why Liberty tried to buy their way into Conference USA 8 years ago during the last round of realignment.

(10-13-2021 01:51 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:40 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:32 PM)Bogg Wrote:  I doubt they get raided down to 4, and if they're at 6 it's just too easy to go back to 8 and grab an affiliate or two to get to whatever minimum number you're comfortable with.

If CUSA gets raided down to 6, those 6 are going to be looking for other options to ensure the stability of their athletic deparment

Would UTEP looking to be the WAC #14?
Would FIU and FAU look to the ASUN?

None of this is ideal, but having the NMSU/UMass setup beats having no conference at all

UTEP isn't jumping to the WAC and football independence - they'll insist on NMSt for a local partner. Even if they're left with, say, UTEP, La Tech, and the Floridas they'll add NMSt, try to get Liberty/JMU, and if that fails go and get, like, Missouri State/EKU/Jacksonville State to get to 8. Maybe double back to Liberty and/or UConn/UMass as affiliates to get to 10.

They don't technically have to have 10 football members to split divisions. There is no rule on that. The divisions just have to be as evenly split as possible, and the league must have 8 full members.

(10-13-2021 01:51 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:49 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:45 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:42 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:38 PM)All4One Wrote:  Well, I can't imagine New Mexico State or Liberty passing up an opportunity to be in an FBS conference that carries direct bowl bids and is extended a sizable chunk from the CFP distribution moreso than they would get as Independents.

Liberty already has a direct bowl bid in the ESPN event pool

as for CFP money, who knows what that will look like next go round.

Liberty's bowl bid is not direct. It is contingent to there being no available Gang of 5 school to fill the bid. I checked into it.

Fair enough but ESPN takes care of their own and Liberty has gone all in with ESPN. I don't think Liberty is worried about missing out on a bowl anytime soon.

I'm sure they'll try to help Liberty as much as they can, but their bids are more guaranteed when they are in a conference. That's why Liberty tried to buy their way into Conference USA 8 years ago during the last round of realignment.

8 years ago they didnt have a strong relationship with ESPN.

I'm sure Liberty and NMSU would strongly consider any CUSA invite, I just don't see it as slam dunk as many do

If CUSA did get down to 6 and those 6 didnt have any other options, i think that CUSA would be ok. JMU is dying to get out of the CAA so there is your #7 and I think MO St would be interested as #8 and would feel comfortable being in a conference with WKU and MTSU.

Once you get back to a stable 8, then you can pick from ASun and WAC schools interested in upgrading while also making NMSU and Liberty feel more comfortable they are not jumping on a sinking ship.

My concern is that if they get down to 6, the remaining schools will find other options.

I honestly see C-USA only losing 6 right now. 4 to the AAC and maybe 2 to the Sun Belt. I think the Mountain West only expands if it loses teams to the Big 12 or PAC 12.

(10-13-2021 01:50 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:28 PM)All4One Wrote:  What a banner performance for the first woman FBS commissioner.

Classy.

Dude, that's what she was most accredited for. She had no other milestones as commissioner of the league. I have no problem with a woman being a commissioner of the conference, but she should be qualified. It shouldn't be the only thing that defines her career.

(10-13-2021 01:59 PM)46566 Wrote:  I honestly see C-USA only losing 6 right now. 4 to the AAC and maybe 2 to the Sun Belt. I think the Mountain West only expands if it loses teams to the Big 12 or PAC 12.

If the MWC doesn't take any TX schools, I think the CUSA at 8 will be ok and would probably be able to get NMSU and Liberty

The east of FAU, FIU, WKU, MTSU would probably seek to add JMU and Liberty.

The west of UTEP, UTSA, N Texas, LA Tech would probably seek to add MO St. and NMSU

While I mismash, it would be stable with fairly sensible travel pairs

(10-13-2021 01:58 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If CUSA did get down to 6 and those 6 didnt have any other options, i think that CUSA would be ok. JMU is dying to get out of the CAA so there is your #7 and I think MO St would be interested as #8 and would feel comfortable being in a conference with WKU and MTSU.

Once you get back to a stable 8, then you can pick from ASun and WAC schools interested in upgrading while also making NMSU and Liberty feel more comfortable they are not jumping on a sinking ship.

My concern is that if they get down to 6, the remaining schools will find other options.

If CUSA gets down to 6, nobody's going to have any other options because those options will be full from raiding CUSA.

Having an auto-bid and share of the CFP money will keep it alive even if raided down to 6. There would be no shortage of FCS schools that would leap at the chance to jump up.

(10-13-2021 02:15 PM)chidave Wrote:  Having an auto-bid and share of the CFP money will keep it alive even if raided down to 6. There would be no shortage of FCS schools that would leap at the chance to jump up.

Maybe

I just remember the WAC and the Sun Belt at their lowest times not having the easiest time finding interested FCS schools.

(10-13-2021 01:35 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:32 PM)Bogg Wrote:  I doubt they get raided down to 4, and if they're at 6 it's just too easy to go back to 8 and grab an affiliate or two to get to whatever minimum number you're comfortable with.

If you go to 4, you could probably get NMSU and Liberty, but why would they want to join that league for non-football sports?

Yes for NMSU as they want back into a FBS conference. A setup like this could work as there are good travel partners that setup nicely
UTEP/NMSU, WKU/MT, FAU/FIU, LATech/?…(MoSt, SHSU).

It would be good if the NCAA would be willing to pass a waiver where they became a FBS Football only conference. and the teams could then place their basketball and other olympic sports in other conferences that would be more regional to their location. It could still have a bowl ties, CFP payout, media deal, etc. The WAC, ASUN, OVC, MVC, SoCon, or whoever could then add the basketball + olympic sports of these other universities.

NMSU, UTEP, LA TECH, MTSU, WKU, ODU, FAU, FIU, UMASS, LIBERTY. A 10 team football only league.

You could also see if Missouri State, JMU wanted to join as teams 11 and 12. Have East / West divisions.

I'm not saying that these will be the only teams left behind or the teams not taken I am just using the OP to go off of.

(10-13-2021 01:20 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Killing a conference is very hard, but I do see some plausible scenarios where it would be very hard to rebuild the CUSA shell

If AAC goes to 12 and takes 4 from CUSA - UAB, Charlotte, Rice, and Marshall
then
MWC and Sunbelt take 2 each - N Texas and UTSA to MWC and USM and ODU to the Sunbelt

That leaves the CUSA with a very odd couple mix of 6
FIU, FAU, WKU, MTSU, LA Tech, and UTEP

If that were to happen, you know MTSU and WKU would be pushing hard to join the MAC

If the MAC takes WKU and MTSU, I don't see how CUSA rebuilds, unless they become the FBS gateway conference for the 1AA schools that have been long rumored to be interested in upgrading.

If the AAC, MWC, and Sunbelt all take CUSA schools, will the conference have the ability to survive?

I don't see anyone doing a lateral move to the Sun Belt. What's much more likely is the remnants of CUSA absorb the best 7 to 9 from the Sun Belt which gives the Sun Belt members an easy way to dump the 2 basketball schools and ULM.

(10-13-2021 01:28 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:20 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Killing a conference is very hard, but I do see some plausible scenarios where it would be very hard to rebuild the CUSA shell

If AAC goes to 12 and takes 4 from CUSA - UAB, Charlotte, Rice, and Marshall
then
MWC and Sunbelt take 2 each - N Texas and UTSA to MWC and USM and ODU to the Sunbelt

That leaves the CUSA with a very odd couple mix of 6
FIU, FAU, WKU, MTSU, LA Tech, and UTEP

If that were to happen, you know MTSU and WKU would be pushing hard to join the MAC

If the MAC takes WKU and MTSU, I don't see how CUSA rebuilds, unless they become the FBS gateway conference for the 1AA schools that have been long rumored to be interested in upgrading.

If the AAC, MWC, and Sunbelt all take CUSA schools, will the conference have the ability to survive?

Would the MAC actually want to go above 12?

I would guess that NMSU would be the first add. Now you have 7 with 6 of those having close travel partners. If Missouri St is truly interested in moving up, add them for number 8. That's a start. More fcs schools in the middle of those 8 schools are likely interested in finding an fbs home. It will happen and lots of fbs folks won't like it but that's the result of trying to kill a conference.

I think WKU basketball would be attractive enough to get MAC to 14.

(10-13-2021 02:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:20 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Killing a conference is very hard, but I do see some plausible scenarios where it would be very hard to rebuild the CUSA shell

If AAC goes to 12 and takes 4 from CUSA - UAB, Charlotte, Rice, and Marshall
then
MWC and Sunbelt take 2 each - N Texas and UTSA to MWC and USM and ODU to the Sunbelt

That leaves the CUSA with a very odd couple mix of 6
FIU, FAU, WKU, MTSU, LA Tech, and UTEP

If that were to happen, you know MTSU and WKU would be pushing hard to join the MAC

If the MAC takes WKU and MTSU, I don't see how CUSA rebuilds, unless they become the FBS gateway conference for the 1AA schools that have been long rumored to be interested in upgrading.

If the AAC, MWC, and Sunbelt all take CUSA schools, will the conference have the ability to survive?

I don't see anyone doing a lateral move to the Sun Belt. What's much more likely is the remnants of CUSA absorb the best 7 to 9 from the Sun Belt which gives the Sun Belt members an easy way to dump the 2 basketball schools and ULM.

I don't see anyone leaving the Sun Belt for CUSA at this point. That ship has sailed

(10-13-2021 02:33 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 02:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:20 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Killing a conference is very hard, but I do see some plausible scenarios where it would be very hard to rebuild the CUSA shell

If AAC goes to 12 and takes 4 from CUSA - UAB, Charlotte, Rice, and Marshall
then
MWC and Sunbelt take 2 each - N Texas and UTSA to MWC and USM and ODU to the Sunbelt

That leaves the CUSA with a very odd couple mix of 6
FIU, FAU, WKU, MTSU, LA Tech, and UTEP

If that were to happen, you know MTSU and WKU would be pushing hard to join the MAC

If the MAC takes WKU and MTSU, I don't see how CUSA rebuilds, unless they become the FBS gateway conference for the 1AA schools that have been long rumored to be interested in upgrading.

If the AAC, MWC, and Sunbelt all take CUSA schools, will the conference have the ability to survive?

I don't see anyone doing a lateral move to the Sun Belt. What's much more likely is the remnants of CUSA absorb the best 7 to 9 from the Sun Belt which gives the Sun Belt members an easy way to dump the 2 basketball schools and ULM.

I don't see anyone leaving the Sun Belt for CUSA at this point. That ship has sailed

I believe that Texas State would jump, but only if none of the CUSA Texas schools leave. Which isn’t likely, but TSU would definitely jump if they remained.

(10-13-2021 02:33 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 02:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:20 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Killing a conference is very hard, but I do see some plausible scenarios where it would be very hard to rebuild the CUSA shell

If AAC goes to 12 and takes 4 from CUSA - UAB, Charlotte, Rice, and Marshall
then
MWC and Sunbelt take 2 each - N Texas and UTSA to MWC and USM and ODU to the Sunbelt

That leaves the CUSA with a very odd couple mix of 6
FIU, FAU, WKU, MTSU, LA Tech, and UTEP

If that were to happen, you know MTSU and WKU would be pushing hard to join the MAC

If the MAC takes WKU and MTSU, I don't see how CUSA rebuilds, unless they become the FBS gateway conference for the 1AA schools that have been long rumored to be interested in upgrading.

If the AAC, MWC, and Sunbelt all take CUSA schools, will the conference have the ability to survive?

I don't see anyone doing a lateral move to the Sun Belt. What's much more likely is the remnants of CUSA absorb the best 7 to 9 from the Sun Belt which gives the Sun Belt members an easy way to dump the 2 basketball schools and ULM.

I don't see anyone leaving the Sun Belt for CUSA at this point. That ship has sailed

That would be more of a merger.

If CUSA manages to survive with 10 schools: Five teams per division, play everyone in your division twice, division winners meet for the title. No interdivision play otherwise.

Divisions for scheduling purposes but not standings in non-football sports; you play everyone in your division twice and everyone in the other division once. Works better if you can add two non-football schools.

I'm a little worried tbh. If ODU ends up in a CUSA with no Marshall or Charlotte, and no JMU or even Liberty, it's going to be really depressing. It's not even that it's going to be a bad conference, or can't get good schools, but we'll be so isolated that we might as well be in the Big Sky. And if the A-10 doesn't want to go to 16 (they don't) then there's really not many good options for us. We spend an awful lot of money to be on the outside looking in. I don't really need a replay of my social life.

(10-13-2021 01:50 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  

(10-13-2021 01:28 PM)All4One Wrote:  What a banner performance for the first woman FBS commissioner.

Classy.

Inaccurate?