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Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-13-2021 02:49 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 02:18 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 01:19 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 01:14 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 01:06 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC isn't "expanding". The SEC expanded. Expansion is a pro-active move to add schools from a position of strength.

Like the L8, the AAC is "backfilling".

It can be both.

Yes, anytime you’re adding a member, you’re expanding.

The AAC is down to 8, so they’re expanding to 10 or 12.


Correct. However, I see this as more so a "replacing" than an "expanding."

Is there a time frame in your mind where the line is drawn between replacement and expansion?


A very good question. I would think it's not just the time frame but the context of the matter. The AAC is not voluntarily expanding. It has been force to expand (or replace, as I see it).

But as to a time frame, I would think at least one year.
10-13-2021 03:55 PM
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AuzGrams Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
Just add Rice, UAB and maybe another basketball school and call it good.

Although App State looks good in the AAC for football.
10-13-2021 03:56 PM
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LaTex14 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-13-2021 03:56 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Just add Rice, UAB and maybe another basketball school and call it good.

Although App State looks good in the AAC for football.

I can’t find an article but I think Arseco said they were adding “4 to 6” at one point right?
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2021 04:37 PM by LaTex14.)
10-13-2021 04:29 PM
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SMUstang Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-13-2021 03:56 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Just add Rice, UAB and maybe another basketball school and call it good.

Although App State looks good in the AAC for football.

Possible, but lets see what Aresco and the experts say. But I think we should leave the door open for at least 4 MWC schools.
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2021 04:39 PM by SMUstang.)
10-13-2021 04:31 PM
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AuzGrams Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-13-2021 04:29 PM)LaTex14 Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 03:56 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Just add Rice, UAB and maybe another basketball school and call it good.

Although App State looks good in the AAC for football.

I can’t find an article but I think Arseco said they were adding “4 to 6” at one point right?

Found it!

“We do want to get back to either 10 or 12 [schools],” Aresco told the Orlando Sentinel on Friday. “We have some good candidates and we’re only dealing with candidates who have approached us — who have expressed an interest in us.”
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/c...story.html

So probably closer to 6 than 2.

Just think anything more than 12 and 14 at max is ridiculous for football. I personally think the SEC at 16 is ridiculous and they need to go to 9 games.
10-13-2021 04:34 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-13-2021 01:19 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 01:14 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 01:06 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The AAC isn't "expanding". The SEC expanded. Expansion is a pro-active move to add schools from a position of strength.

Like the L8, the AAC is "backfilling".

It can be both.

Yes, anytime you’re adding a member, you’re expanding.

The AAC is down to 8, so they’re expanding to 10 or 12.

Not IMO. Expansion vs backfill isn't purely about numbers.

First, what triggered this alleged expansion?

It wasn't proactive, it was reactive, a reaction to being raided by another conference.

Second, the typical post-raid motivation for adding more members than you lost in a backfill situation is as a perceived "buffer" against future raids. So adding 4 to replace 3 is still backfill. It's backfill with extra padding because you think it might protect you from the next raid, or at least buffer its effects.

Different from expansion, IMO.
10-14-2021 08:54 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-13-2021 04:31 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 03:56 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Just add Rice, UAB and maybe another basketball school and call it good.

Although App State looks good in the AAC for football.

Possible, but lets see what Aresco and the experts say. But I think we should leave the door open for at least 4 MWC schools.

Why? They’re not joining though and nobody is going to poach their teams.
10-14-2021 09:02 AM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-13-2021 04:34 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 04:29 PM)LaTex14 Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 03:56 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Just add Rice, UAB and maybe another basketball school and call it good.

Although App State looks good in the AAC for football.

I can’t find an article but I think Arseco said they were adding “4 to 6” at one point right?

Found it!

“We do want to get back to either 10 or 12 [schools],” Aresco told the Orlando Sentinel on Friday. “We have some good candidates and we’re only dealing with candidates who have approached us — who have expressed an interest in us.”
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/c...story.html

So probably closer to 6 than 2.

Just think anything more than 12 and 14 at max is ridiculous for football. I personally think the SEC at 16 is ridiculous and they need to go to 9 games.

That quote statement about 6 is from before the 4 MWC schools turned away the AAC overtures and they were only looking at 1 or 2 CUSA schools. It doesn't apply anymore. Now they are looking at 2 or 4 CUSA schools. Even to get to 4 requires dramatic lowering of standards. 6 would be ridiculous lowering of standards and lowering of the conference quality.
10-14-2021 10:00 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-13-2021 12:19 PM)No Bull Wrote:  Nothing groundbreaking. We can safely assume UAB and Rice have reached out. UAB and the AAC are negotiating. That’s about all that can be reasonably assumed. Anyone got a flight racket on Aresco? Anyone seen any AAC folks on their campus. There should be more leaks by now.

They visited Jonesboro last week. Though the assumption on our end is that it was more done as a favor since we have a bunch of ties with the league office.
10-14-2021 11:16 PM
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Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
I am obviously guessing, just like everyone else. However, based on what I’ve seen and read and heard, I think the American is going to add four teams to get to 12. It seems like they are shooting for more than just two teams. I don’t know if I necessarily agree with that approach, but that does appear to be their plan.

Honestly, my guess is the reason why they are going to 12 schools instead of 10, which I would recommend, is because they expect to incur more losses and they want to be buffered against that possibility.

With that in mind, again, if I were advising them, I think I would choose programs based on institutional qualities like enrollment because those are factors that never change. Choosing a school based on its current success in football or any other sport is really a dumb approach because that can change at a moments notice. However, if the institution itself is strong and stable then it can always create strong and stable athletic departments.

I would also prefer schools with large on campus housing. Again, I think that’s really important because that creates culture and the AAC is gambling on some futures here and trying to cultivate winning cultures among its members.

So, based on that rationale, if I were the AAC, I think the four programs I would lean towards choosing
would be UAB, Georgia State, Charlotte and UTSA.

On-campus housing is an issue a Georgia State but their enrollment is robust. That feels like a stock that would be worth buying. UTSA profiles similarly but San Antonio is an underserved market compared to Atlanta. Charlotte seems like the most underrated of the group and UAB is a complete no-brainer.

I would also be open to discussing Old Dominion, James Madison, Liberty and Florida Atlantic. I think all of the schools are worth consideration, IMHO. I don’t think I would consider Appalachian State or Marshall. They are both fine programs but they feel maxed out to me. It doesn’t feel like there’s any growth potential there at all.

I don’t believe I would consider Rice at all. I honestly don’t understand their appeal? Maybe someone can better explain it to me but basically, what they have going for them is they were in the Southwest Conference and they have a huge endowment. However, none of that endowment is going towards athletics. Their facilities are terrible, they have an enrollment of 3500 students, and they have no fan base. Respectfully, I just don’t see their appeal at all as an athletic addition. Now, if you were forming some sort of academic coalition, that’s a different deal. They would be one of my first phone calls. However, adding Rice to retain the Houston market would be like adding Columbia to get into the New York City market. It just doesn’t make any sense.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2021 08:22 AM by Dr. Isaly von Yinzer.)
10-15-2021 07:52 AM
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Gakusei Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-15-2021 07:52 AM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  I don’t believe I would consider UTSA at all. I honestly don’t understand their appeal? Maybe someone can better explain it to me... Their facilities are terrible..., and they have no fan base. Respectfully, I just don’t see their appeal at all as an athletic addition. However, adding UTSA to retain the San Antonio market would be like adding Georgia State to get into the Atlanta market. It just doesn’t make any sense.

Not really sure your arguments make any sense either. I edited your last paragraph to show why.
10-15-2021 09:55 AM
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chidave Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
I think they stop at 4 this time to leave the door open for Air Force and Colorado St. 4 is enough to protect you but keeps you flexible in the future as well.
10-15-2021 10:00 AM
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Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-15-2021 09:55 AM)Gakusei Wrote:  
(10-15-2021 07:52 AM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  I don’t believe I would consider UTSA at all. I honestly don’t understand their appeal? Maybe someone can better explain it to me... Their facilities are terrible..., and they have no fan base. Respectfully, I just don’t see their appeal at all as an athletic addition. However, adding UTSA to retain the San Antonio market would be like adding Georgia State to get into the Atlanta market. It just doesn’t make any sense.

Not really sure your arguments make any sense either. I edited your last paragraph to show why.

Yeah, I suppose that’s fair on certain levels but those are not schools of 4000 students. They have much larger undergraduate enrollments, which in time could lead to much larger followings.

Rice is now exactly what it was 10, 20 and 30 years ago, and what it will be 10, 20 and 30 years from now. There just aren’t enough Rice alumni and even fewer who are still in Houston.

I don’t think you’re taking Georgia State to capture the Atlanta market. I don’t think you’re taking UTSA to capture Texas. However, you are betting on two very young programs that have grown a fair amount in a short period of time and are decent bets to continue to grow. You can make no case for Rice.

As far as App State and Marshall, they are safer choices but their ceilings are each so low that I just don’t think it’s worth it.

Full disclosure: I’m not an AAC fan, I’m just interested in this more as a theoretical exercise than anything else. However, the idea here is to elevate your league — or at least maintain its current status as the clear leader among the non-Power Five leagues. I don’t think you can do that by adding rural outposts like Huntington or Boone; and I know you can’t do it by taking on charity cases like Rice.
10-15-2021 02:13 PM
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Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
Also, I want to make it clear that my sympathies lie with Rice.

Schools located in urban settings are at such a severe disadvantage on almost every level. A school like Appalachian State, for example, has almost no local competition for attention. Everyone in the area goes to mountaineers games on the weekends because that’s what you do there. Now, it’s in a much smaller pond but everyone in that pond cares about Appalachian State. Who in Houston cares about Rice?

I have always said of the infamous SMU death penalty, that would have only happened to an urban school if for no other reason than the Dallas Morning News is not imbedding a reporter in College Station or Lubbock or Austin.

So, urban institutions tend to suffer from greater scrutiny and less support than their rural counterparts. That becomes even more challenging whenever those urban institutions are also private schools because your support tends to be limited to your alumni. It’s hard to have civic pride in a private school. It happens but it is relatively rare.

For those reasons, I’ve always believed that the popularity of the urban schools is very often grossly underrated. Obviously, the people who do this type of thing for a living agree with me, which is why you so often see teams in larger markets regularly chosen over their rural counterparts in matters of conference expansion.

Still, I just don’t see Rice as being a really good choice for the AAC. I get UAB and I even think they are a little bit overrated in all of this. I don’t think they are a much better choice than a handful of other contenders. I think they’re all roughly comparable. That is why I think undergraduate enrollment, on campus housing, etc. are much more reliable predictors of success. I think that is what set apart from the rest of the AAC schools like UCF, Cincinnati and Houston.
10-15-2021 02:27 PM
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Gakusei Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-15-2021 02:13 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  I don’t think you’re taking Georgia State to capture the Atlanta market. I don’t think you’re taking UTSA to capture Texas. However, you are betting on two very young programs that have grown a fair amount in a short period of time and are decent bets to continue to grow. You can make no case for Rice.

Well, the case that I would make for Rice is that they have the money to handle a conference change where UTSA does not. Also, Rice controls their own finances and are not beholden the way UTSA is to the UT system. Finally, Rice has decent, not great facilities.

I understand the argument of UTSA having future potential, but at the same time, they have some very real ground level limitations at the moment that fans will look past, but university presidents and ADs will not.

Quote:As far as App State and Marshall, they are safer choices but their ceilings are each so low that I just don’t think it’s worth it.

I think they make sense in a more eastern focused AAC, but if they're really attempting to fill in the blanks out west/south then I'd agree.
10-15-2021 04:14 PM
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Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
OK, so I think you’re making a better case against UTSA than you are for Rice. Rice definitely has more than enough money to do whatever the hell it wants to do. Again though, that’s been the case for the past 30 years and what has that led to?

The other way to look at it is Rice has proven that it does not really need a thriving athletic department to be a thriving university. It doesn’t need to use athletics as a loss leader like so many of its peers do.

For me, I just can’t get over the tiny undergraduate enrollment and the really sparse home crowds over multiple decades now. i’m trying to imagine a scenario in which a Rice team playing under the banner of the American Athletic Conference suddenly starts to thrive and I just can’t fathom that ever happening.
10-15-2021 10:07 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-14-2021 11:16 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 12:19 PM)No Bull Wrote:  Nothing groundbreaking. We can safely assume UAB and Rice have reached out. UAB and the AAC are negotiating. That’s about all that can be reasonably assumed. Anyone got a flight racket on Aresco? Anyone seen any AAC folks on their campus. There should be more leaks by now.

They visited Jonesboro last week. Though the assumption on our end is that it was more done as a favor since we have a bunch of ties with the league office.

That’s cool. Maybe something is in the works.
10-15-2021 10:16 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-15-2021 10:07 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  OK, so I think you’re making a better case against UTSA than you are for Rice. Rice definitely has more than enough money to do whatever the hell it wants to do. Again though, that’s been the case for the past 30 years and what has that led to?

The other way to look at it is Rice has proven that it does not really need a thriving athletic department to be a thriving university. It doesn’t need to use athletics as a loss leader like so many of its peers do.

For me, I just can’t get over the tiny undergraduate enrollment and the really sparse home crowds over multiple decades now. i’m trying to imagine a scenario in which a Rice team playing under the banner of the American Athletic Conference suddenly starts to thrive and I just can’t fathom that ever happening.

It would be about them pouring more money into the program and getting better exposure from ESPN/ABC. No reason SMU and Tulsa can be competitive and Rice cant. That said---if we assume the AAC adding a Texas school is a MUST (and we really dont know that it is), does the AAC really care which Texas G5 steps up to the plate and indicates it is willing to expand its athletic budget to meet the 45-50 million it will take to be consistently competitive in the AAC? I mean---if UTSA and N Texas (or N Texas and Rice) decide they can accept a MW invite and not have to meet the AAC higher budget requirements---does that really matter to the AAC?

It may very be that it doesnt matter at all. Its not like any of the available G5's in the Texas have been power football programs---all three look to be a gamble on future potential. So---if the MW wants to take two or three Texas teams that the AAC has vetted and already knows are not willing to spend at the level required to compete in the AAC (or MW--as those two conferences have similar budget ranges)--thats basically the MW adding teams to that are likely to rarely ever climb out of the MW cellar. Meanwhile, if the AAC is taking the one available Texas G5 committed to spending what it takes to compete in the AAC---I dont think the AAC will really care which one of the 4 it is (even if its say--Texas St.---the program thats the least successful in the bunch)---as it would be the one program thats financially committed to competing. I suppose---if they could have thier druthers---it would be nice if the school with the best brand and AAU academics was the school that was willing to spend the money.

That said---if your having to choose from 4 programs that simply cant seem to consistently field decent teams---maybe you should just add 2 teams for now or--if thats not an option---at least widen the search beyond Texas.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2021 10:29 PM by Attackcoog.)
10-15-2021 10:19 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-15-2021 10:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-15-2021 10:07 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  OK, so I think you’re making a better case against UTSA than you are for Rice. Rice definitely has more than enough money to do whatever the hell it wants to do. Again though, that’s been the case for the past 30 years and what has that led to?

The other way to look at it is Rice has proven that it does not really need a thriving athletic department to be a thriving university. It doesn’t need to use athletics as a loss leader like so many of its peers do.

For me, I just can’t get over the tiny undergraduate enrollment and the really sparse home crowds over multiple decades now. i’m trying to imagine a scenario in which a Rice team playing under the banner of the American Athletic Conference suddenly starts to thrive and I just can’t fathom that ever happening.

It would be about them pouring more money into the program and getting better exposure from ESPN/ABC. No reason SMU and Tulsa can be competitive and Rice cant. That said---if we assume the AAC adding a Texas school is a MUST (and we really dont know that it is), does the AAC really care which Texas G5 steps up to the plate and indicates it is willing to expand its athletic budget to meet the 45-50 million it will take to be consistently competitive in the AAC? I mean---if UTSA and N Texas (or N Texas and Rice) decide they can accept a MW invite and not have to meet the AAC higher budget requirements---does that really matter to the AAC?

It may very be that it doesnt matter at all. Its not like any of the available G5's in the Texas have been power football programs---all three look to be a gamble on future potential. So---if the MW wants to take two or three Texas teams that the AAC has vetted and already knows are not willing to spend at the level required to compete in the AAC (or MW--as those two conferences have similar budget ranges)--thats basically the MW adding teams to that are likely to rarely ever climb out of the MW cellar. Meanwhile, if the AAC is taking the one available Texas G5 committed to spending what it takes to compete in the AAC---I dont think the AAC will really care which one of the 4 it is (even if its say--Texas St.---the program thats the least successful in the bunch)---as it would be the one program thats financially committed to competing. I suppose---if they could have thier druthers---it would be nice if the school with the best brand and AAU academics was the school that was willing to spend the money.

That said---if your having to choose from 4 programs that simply cant seem to consistently field decent teams---maybe you should just add 2 teams for now or--if thats not an option---at least widen the search beyond Texas.

Basically agree with everything you both said. Rice, even if they were to start hitting the top 25 regularly, would see a more pronounced version of what you’re seeing with SMU now. Despite being top 25, SMU won’t fill their 30k stadium. They don’t have the same buy-in from Dallas the way TCU does in Fort Worth, and they don’t have the alums to fill the gap. The upside of private schools is the resources, and the downside is that schools like Miami and USC are more the exception than the rule.

For the Texas schools (UNT, UTSA, TSU, and Rice), none of them really offer anything compelling in a vacuum. If they did, they’d already have moved conferences. That said, we’re not in a vacuum. If MWC expands it’ll be for visibility in Texas, and if AAC expands with Texas schools, it’ll be with schools that can expand their budget to be more in line with the rest of the conference.

For the MWC, UNT and UTSA offer the most visibility. For the AAC, UNT, TSU, and Rice are capable of expanding their budgets. The difference is there are far fewer options for the MWC than there are for the AAC. Personally, I feel like it makes more sense for that conference to push eastward than to reinforce SMU, who aspires to leave, and Tulsa, who always seems like their football program is in a precarious position.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2021 11:49 PM by Gakusei.)
10-15-2021 11:45 PM
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Post: #40
RE: Memphis Beat Tweets AAC Expansion updates from Aresco
(10-15-2021 04:14 PM)Gakusei Wrote:  
(10-15-2021 02:13 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  I don’t think you’re taking Georgia State to capture the Atlanta market. I don’t think you’re taking UTSA to capture Texas. However, you are betting on two very young programs that have grown a fair amount in a short period of time and are decent bets to continue to grow. You can make no case for Rice.

Well, the case that I would make for Rice is that they have the money to handle a conference change where UTSA does not. Also, Rice controls their own finances and are not beholden the way UTSA is to the UT system. Finally, Rice has decent, not great facilities.

I understand the argument of UTSA having future potential, but at the same time, they have some very real ground level limitations at the moment that fans will look past, but university presidents and ADs will not.

Quote:As far as App State and Marshall, they are safer choices but their ceilings are each so low that I just don’t think it’s worth it.

I think they make sense in a more eastern focused AAC, but if they're really attempting to fill in the blanks out west/south then I'd agree.


The endowment money is mainly for academics and not athletics. Rice academics may have the money to move, but not the athletic's department.
10-16-2021 12:03 AM
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