Big 12 future as a power conference
Since UT and OU (or OUT as some have taken to calling them) announced their decision to leave the Big 12, there have been no shortage of opinions about how that move will affect the league's power conference status.
With that in mind, I've done some analysis to project what the "new Big 12" with their four announced decisions would look like on the football field. And, while performance alone doesn't confer "P" status, lack thereof would likely be a certain death blow to it.
I used the Sagarin power ratings over the 10 seasons from 2010-19 (excluding the oddball COVID year). These numbers are for the SEC including OUT and the Big 12 excluding OUT but adding BYU, Houston, Cincy and UCF. The first column is the average power rating of all the schools over the 10 year period. This is a measure of top to bottom strength of a league. But leagues are also measured by how strong they are at the top - their "tentpole" teams. So the second column is the average of the rating of the highest rated team in each conference over that same period.
The third column shows how many different teams in each league had the highest rating in at least one year from 2007-2010 and the number of teams after the realignment moves are finalized. The fourth and final column is the range between the highest rated team over the 1o year period and the lowest rated team's average. The larger the number, the more top-heavy the league. Below this table I have listed the highest rated teams with the number of times they earned that rating in parentheses.
..........10 year......Average of.....Highest
Conf...average.......best team..rated teams..Range
SEC..........81............101..........4/16............31
PAC..........77..............93..........4/12............21
B1G..........75..............94..........5/14............29
ACC..........75..............94..........3/14............24
B12..........75..............90..........6/12............26
AAC..........65..............77...........4/8............13
MWC.........64..............81..........6/12...........25
MAC..........59..............74..........8/12...........19
USA..........58..............76..........8/14...........20
SBC..........58..............72..........4/10...........20
SEC: Alabama (9), LSU (2), Auburn (1), Florida (1)
PAC: Oregon (6), Washington (3), USC (2), Stanford (2)
B1G: Ohio State (9), Michigan (1), Michigan St (1), Penn State (1), Wisconsin (1)
ACC: Clemson (6), Virginia Tech (4), Florida State (3)
B12: TCU (5), Oklahoma St (3), Baylor (2), Kansas St (1), Kansas (1), West Virginia (1)
AAC: Tulsa (5), Memphis (4), Navy (3), USF (1)
MWC: Boise St (7), Utah St (2), Air Force (1), San Diego St (1), Fresno St (1), Hawaii (1)
MAC: Northern Illinois (3), Toledo (2), CMU (2), Ohio (2), WMU (1), Ball St (1), Bowling Green (1), Buffalo (1)
USA: FAU (3), Southern Miss (2), Marshall (2), Western Kentucky (2), UAB (1), Rice (1), MTSU (1), La Tech (1)
SBC: Appalachian St (7), Arkansas St (3), Georgia Southern (2), Troy (1)
Note: Some of these high ratings were earned while playing in a different conference than their current (after announced realignment moves) one.
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2021 02:40 PM by ken d.)
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