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Big 12 future as a power conference
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ken d Online
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Post: #1
Big 12 future as a power conference
Since UT and OU (or OUT as some have taken to calling them) announced their decision to leave the Big 12, there have been no shortage of opinions about how that move will affect the league's power conference status.

With that in mind, I've done some analysis to project what the "new Big 12" with their four announced decisions would look like on the football field. And, while performance alone doesn't confer "P" status, lack thereof would likely be a certain death blow to it.

I used the Sagarin power ratings over the 10 seasons from 2010-19 (excluding the oddball COVID year). These numbers are for the SEC including OUT and the Big 12 excluding OUT but adding BYU, Houston, Cincy and UCF. The first column is the average power rating of all the schools over the 10 year period. This is a measure of top to bottom strength of a league. But leagues are also measured by how strong they are at the top - their "tentpole" teams. So the second column is the average of the rating of the highest rated team in each conference over that same period.

The third column shows how many different teams in each league had the highest rating in at least one year from 2007-2010 and the number of teams after the realignment moves are finalized. The fourth and final column is the range between the highest rated team over the 1o year period and the lowest rated team's average. The larger the number, the more top-heavy the league. Below this table I have listed the highest rated teams with the number of times they earned that rating in parentheses.

..........10 year......Average of.....Highest
Conf...average.......best team..rated teams..Range

SEC..........81............101..........4/16............31
PAC..........77..............93..........4/12............21
B1G..........75..............94..........5/14............29
ACC..........75..............94..........3/14............24
B12..........75..............90..........6/12............26
AAC..........65..............77...........4/8............13
MWC.........64..............81..........6/12...........25
MAC..........59..............74..........8/12...........19
USA..........58..............76..........8/14...........20
SBC..........58..............72..........4/10...........20


SEC: Alabama (9), LSU (2), Auburn (1), Florida (1)
PAC: Oregon (6), Washington (3), USC (2), Stanford (2)
B1G: Ohio State (9), Michigan (1), Michigan St (1), Penn State (1), Wisconsin (1)
ACC: Clemson (6), Virginia Tech (4), Florida State (3)
B12: TCU (5), Oklahoma St (3), Baylor (2), Kansas St (1), Kansas (1), West Virginia (1)
AAC: Tulsa (5), Memphis (4), Navy (3), USF (1)
MWC: Boise St (7), Utah St (2), Air Force (1), San Diego St (1), Fresno St (1), Hawaii (1)
MAC: Northern Illinois (3), Toledo (2), CMU (2), Ohio (2), WMU (1), Ball St (1), Bowling Green (1), Buffalo (1)
USA: FAU (3), Southern Miss (2), Marshall (2), Western Kentucky (2), UAB (1), Rice (1), MTSU (1), La Tech (1)
SBC: Appalachian St (7), Arkansas St (3), Georgia Southern (2), Troy (1)

Note: Some of these high ratings were earned while playing in a different conference than their current (after announced realignment moves) one.
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2021 02:40 PM by ken d.)
10-13-2021 11:21 AM
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ken d Online
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RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
The way I would interpret that data is that, if on field performance is the main determinant of "P" status, the new Big 12 definitely retains it. And, regardless of who the AAC is likely to backfill with, they would still be a "tweener", a status they would now share with the MWC.

Another thing to note: the top four P conferences are more top heavy than anyone else. They have all had one dominant team in recent years. But we didn't need analysis to tell us that.

Additional analysis (not shown) also says there is no combination of adds that would elevate either the MWC or AAC to P status or lower them from tweener status. But if the AAC could snag six top schools from the MWC they would reduce that league's remnants to bottom feeder status (if they survive at all).
(This post was last modified: 10-14-2021 02:37 PM by ken d.)
10-13-2021 11:31 AM
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DavidSt Online
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Post: #3
RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
James Madison, Montana, North Dakota State and EWU had a million viewership when FCS schools played when FBS did not played. The big named FCS schools that win are the ones that get that as well.
10-13-2021 11:59 AM
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e-parade Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
(10-13-2021 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  The way I would interpret that date is that, if on field performance is the main determinant of "P" status, the new Big 12 definitely retains it. And, regardless of who the AAC is likely to backfill with, they would still be a "tweener", a status they would now share with the MWC.

Another thing to note: the top four P conferences are more top heavy than anyone else. They have all had one dominant team in recent years. But we didn't need analysis to tell us that.

Additional analysis (not shown) also says there is no combination of adds that would elevate either the MWC or AAC to P status or lower them from tweener status. But if the AAC could snag six top schools from the MWC they would reduce that league's remnants to bottom feeder status (if they survive at all).

Based on the way I read the table up there, it definitely looks like they line up with the bottom P conferences still and are well ahead of the AAC and MWC. Interesting to see if holding onto the B12 name gives them a heads up in the polls still and such or if no longer being associated with Texas and Oklahoma would be a drag on their numbers.


Since it doesn't seem like the AAC will be able to snag anything from the MWC for now, it will be interesting to see how the teams they do grab impact this. It won't drop them to the CUSA level for sure, but would it be possible that they wind up lower than the MWC based on who they might be able to snag?
10-13-2021 01:30 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
The NB12 is going to be a fine conference, but there's going to be a revenue gap with some of the other big-money conferences, and as a result schools won't sign a GOR because they'll be hoping the B1G or PAC decide to expand with them, and it'll bring the associated instability. It is what it is. They'll be perfectly good on the field and the court though.
10-13-2021 01:39 PM
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Huan Online
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Post: #6
RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
(10-13-2021 01:39 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The NB12 is going to be a fine conference, but there's going to be a revenue gap with some of the other big-money conferences, and as a result schools won't sign a GOR because they'll be hoping the B1G or PAC decide to expand with them, and it'll bring the associated instability. It is what it is. They'll be perfectly good on the field and the court though.

except for Kansas, i don't see any NB12 teams getting invites upward. i think a GOR as likely.
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2021 03:14 PM by Huan.)
10-13-2021 03:13 PM
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BePcr07 Online
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RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
(10-13-2021 03:13 PM)Huan Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 01:39 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The NB12 is going to be a fine conference, but there's going to be a revenue gap with some of the other big-money conferences, and as a result schools won't sign a GOR because they'll be hoping the B1G or PAC decide to expand with them, and it'll bring the associated instability. It is what it is. They'll be perfectly good on the field and the court though.

except for Kansas, i don't see any NB12 teams getting invites upward. i think a GOR as likely.

I can see Kansas and Oklahoma St finding a home elsewhere. The rest will have to wait until either or both of the ACC/PAC get raided or are forced to expand.
10-13-2021 03:19 PM
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ken d Online
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RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
One thing that struck me was that, in the list of schools that had the highest rating in at least one year out of thirteen, neither Oklahoma or Georgia made the cut.
10-13-2021 03:29 PM
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ken d Online
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RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
(10-13-2021 01:30 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(10-13-2021 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  The way I would interpret that date is that, if on field performance is the main determinant of "P" status, the new Big 12 definitely retains it. And, regardless of who the AAC is likely to backfill with, they would still be a "tweener", a status they would now share with the MWC.

Another thing to note: the top four P conferences are more top heavy than anyone else. They have all had one dominant team in recent years. But we didn't need analysis to tell us that.

Additional analysis (not shown) also says there is no combination of adds that would elevate either the MWC or AAC to P status or lower them from tweener status. But if the AAC could snag six top schools from the MWC they would reduce that league's remnants to bottom feeder status (if they survive at all).

Based on the way I read the table up there, it definitely looks like they line up with the bottom P conferences still and are well ahead of the AAC and MWC. Interesting to see if holding onto the B12 name gives them a heads up in the polls still and such or if no longer being associated with Texas and Oklahoma would be a drag on their numbers.


Since it doesn't seem like the AAC will be able to snag anything from the MWC for now, it will be interesting to see how the teams they do grab impact this. It won't drop them to the CUSA level for sure, but would it be possible that they wind up lower than the MWC based on who they might be able to snag?

You could make the case that they are only equal to the MWC now (with Boise giving the MWC the edge in "highest rated champ" category). The only way I could see the AAC really helping itself is to not give up on raiding the MWC. Instead, go big and take Boise, SDSU, Fresno, AFA, Colorado St and either Nevada or UNLV, and then go east to take Army and Rice (with the Owls going to the west division and the Cadets to the east). That would essentially neuter the MWC, and probably wouldn't have a significant negative impact on the AAC's per team media payouts..
10-13-2021 03:39 PM
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Huan Online
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Post: #10
RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
(10-13-2021 03:29 PM)ken d Wrote:  One thing that struck me was that, in the list of schools that had the highest rating in at least one year out of thirteen, neither Oklahoma or Georgia made the cut.

neither OU nor UT
yeah Georgia's absence was conspicuous
10-13-2021 03:40 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
(10-13-2021 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  The way I would interpret that date is that, if on field performance is the main determinant of "P" status, the new Big 12 definitely retains it.

100%
10-13-2021 03:44 PM
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AuzGrams Offline
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RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
The Big 12 is a good conference that still deserves its status. All 4 schools have consistently proven to be good over the past 20 years.

I just hope they keep their brand this time unlike the Big 10+4.
(This post was last modified: 10-13-2021 03:49 PM by AuzGrams.)
10-13-2021 03:47 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Big 12 future as a power conference
(10-13-2021 11:31 AM)ken d Wrote:  The way I would interpret that date is that, if on field performance is the main determinant of "P" status, the new Big 12 definitely retains it. And, regardless of who the AAC is likely to backfill with, they would still be a "tweener", a status they would now share with the MWC.

Another thing to note: the top four P conferences are more top heavy than anyone else. They have all had one dominant team in recent years. But we didn't need analysis to tell us that.

Additional analysis (not shown) also says there is no combination of adds that would elevate either the MWC or AAC to P status or lower them from tweener status. But if the AAC could snag six top schools from the MWC they would reduce that league's remnants to bottom feeder status (if they survive at all).

Agree that top-to-bottom their on-field football should be just as good as the B1G, ACC and PAC. Their problem is that they don’t have football blue bloods, nor even nouveau riche. They need brands for their forthcoming negotiations. More reason to hold OU and UT accountable to their full terms, or until new media deal and CFP expansion are finalized…all associations with blue bloods should help in negotiations.
10-13-2021 04:15 PM
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