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Cincinnati in CFP
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #161
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 04:22 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

Nah, no way they gonna pass up a one loss MSU/UM runner up in the East (both of whom will probably lose to OSU), versus UGa in the Orange. UC most likely goes to the Peach against 11-2 Bama or 11-1 UK.

The only time two teams from the same conference made the CFP is 2017/18 - #3 Georgia [12-1] and #4 Bama [11-1]. Doesn't mean it can't happen again but it appears the Committee has no penchant for that.

Agreed. It only happens this year if Alabama and Georgia both win out until the SECCG, and then Alabama beats Georgia, and doesn't shellack them. It has to be reasonably close.

Then it happens. But that's a very tight window, IMO.
10-17-2021 05:23 PM
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Post: #162
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
I think the Rutgers guy is a little too awash in the B10 love juice.

The B10 will get its one CFP participant as of right. That’s all they are getting. Ohio State losing at home to Oregon and Iowa pooping the bed to Purdue cratered any hopes of 2. Only one of the East teams gets the chance to rout a woefully overrated Iowa.
10-17-2021 05:38 PM
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Post: #163
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 04:40 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  [sarcasm] For some reason I didn't realize that so many of the College Football Championship selection board hung out on the CSNbbs "College Sports and Realignment" page.

I am truly humbled that so many of you vaunted experts hang out here. [/sarcasm]

I really do not care what "Quo Vadis" or "Bullet" or "RUScarlets" think unless they are on the selection board. Y'all are entitled to your opinion but it doesn't actually account for anything...unless you are on the CFP board.

Until they release their first seedings in a couple of weeks, I really don't care much. And even then, UC can't do anything "about it" except win the games on their schedule. As a fan, I can do even less...except enjoy the ride.

Sounds like you have a huge chip on your shoulder, taking everything personally.

We're simply predicting what the committee would do based on past history. Deserves really has nothing to do with getting in the CFP 4.

If you don't want to hear our opinions, don't respond and don't read them.
10-17-2021 05:38 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #164
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 04:22 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

Nah, no way they gonna pass up a one loss MSU/UM runner up in the East (both of whom will probably lose to OSU), versus UGa in the Orange. UC most likely goes to the Peach against 11-2 Bama or 11-1 UK.

The only time two teams from the same conference made the CFP is 2017/18 - #3 Georgia [12-1] and #4 Bama [11-1]. Doesn't mean it can't happen again but it appears the Committee has no penchant for that.

The ACC had two teams in the CFP last year: both Clemson and ND made it with 1 loss records.

It’s still too early to rule-out many CFP scenarios.
10-17-2021 05:40 PM
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Post: #165
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 04:22 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

Nah, no way they gonna pass up a one loss MSU/UM runner up in the East (both of whom will probably lose to OSU), versus UGa in the Orange. UC most likely goes to the Peach against 11-2 Bama or 11-1 UK.

The only time two teams from the same conference made the CFP is 2017/18 - #3 Georgia [12-1] and #4 Bama [11-1]. Doesn't mean it can't happen again but it appears the Committee has no penchant for that.

Agreed. It only happens this year if Alabama and Georgia both win out until the SECCG, and then Alabama beats Georgia, and doesn't shellack them. It has to be reasonably close.

Then it happens. But that's a very tight window, IMO.

Unless Wake, OU/Okie St. AND UM/MSU are unbeaten, Georgia is in if they go 12-0 pretty much no matter what happens in the SEC ccg.
10-17-2021 05:41 PM
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Post: #166
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 05:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 04:22 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

Nah, no way they gonna pass up a one loss MSU/UM runner up in the East (both of whom will probably lose to OSU), versus UGa in the Orange. UC most likely goes to the Peach against 11-2 Bama or 11-1 UK.

The only time two teams from the same conference made the CFP is 2017/18 - #3 Georgia [12-1] and #4 Bama [11-1]. Doesn't mean it can't happen again but it appears the Committee has no penchant for that.

Agreed. It only happens this year if Alabama and Georgia both win out until the SECCG, and then Alabama beats Georgia, and doesn't shellack them. It has to be reasonably close.

Then it happens. But that's a very tight window, IMO.

Unless Wake, OU/Okie St. AND UM/MSU are unbeaten, Georgia is in if they go 12-0 pretty much no matter what happens in the SEC ccg.

That's true. Lots of football left. For example, I bet two weeks ago, nobody was creating CFP scenarios that had Alabama losing to Texas AM or Iowa losing to Purdue.
10-17-2021 05:42 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #167
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 05:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 05:23 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 04:22 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

Nah, no way they gonna pass up a one loss MSU/UM runner up in the East (both of whom will probably lose to OSU), versus UGa in the Orange. UC most likely goes to the Peach against 11-2 Bama or 11-1 UK.

The only time two teams from the same conference made the CFP is 2017/18 - #3 Georgia [12-1] and #4 Bama [11-1]. Doesn't mean it can't happen again but it appears the Committee has no penchant for that.

Agreed. It only happens this year if Alabama and Georgia both win out until the SECCG, and then Alabama beats Georgia, and doesn't shellack them. It has to be reasonably close.

Then it happens. But that's a very tight window, IMO.

Unless Wake, OU/Okie St. AND UM/MSU are unbeaten, Georgia is in if they go 12-0 pretty much no matter what happens in the SEC ccg.

If that happens, I do not hesitate to think that Georgia gets in ahead of unbeaten Wake.

They aren't going to leave Georgia out for having to play an 11-1, probably no lower than #4 Alabama, while Wake beats say a 3-loss North Carolina team in the ACC CCG. Not IMO.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2021 05:47 PM by quo vadis.)
10-17-2021 05:45 PM
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Post: #168
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 05:38 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I think the Rutgers guy is a little too awash in the B10 love juice.

The B10 will get its one CFP participant as of right. That’s all they are getting. Ohio State losing at home to Oregon and Iowa pooping the bed to Purdue cratered any hopes of 2. Only one of the East teams gets the chance to rout a woefully overrated Iowa.

I’m usually advocating access to the G5 and am still more of an old Big East guy, but I have to call it the way I see it. It’s going to be very difficult leaving one loss MSU/UM out, although this is a very unlikely scenario. The more likely scenario which we all agree on is a UGa upset in Atlanta.
10-17-2021 05:47 PM
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Post: #169
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 03:57 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 03:12 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  And they start a round robin in a week or so. MSU and Michigan each have to play OSU, PSU and each other. Only 1 B10 team max will be in the CFP.

Nah, no way they gonna pass up a one loss MSU/UM runner up in the East (both of whom will probably lose to OSU), versus UGa in the Orange. UC most likely goes to the Peach against 11-2 Bama or 11-1 UK.

Sorry but Michigan and Michigan St. aren't exactly Alabama or Ohio St. They haven't earned the benefit of the doubt. They'll have to win the Big 10 to make the playoff.
10-17-2021 06:20 PM
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BigEastMike Offline
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Post: #170
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
UM and MSU will lose to both PSU and OSU will beat all 3 then make quick work of Iowa in the CCG.

UGA vs OSU

Cincy vs OU

Thats your playoff field as of now.
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2021 09:44 AM by BigEastMike.)
10-18-2021 09:43 AM
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Post: #171
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
There’s a lot of football left to play but Cincinnati’s odds improve each time an undefeated P5 takes a loss.

PAC 12: their only hope is 1 loss Oregon. If the Ducks take another L they are done.

ACC: WF is their only undefeated and 1 loss Pitt and NC State don’t have a lot of respect. I’d be shocked to see any of those 3 leap frog an undefeated Cincinnati.

Big 12: Oklahoma and Oklahoma St will have to play once, if not twice. A 1 loss Big 12 champ is good for Cincinnati

SEC: Alabama wasn’t punished much for losing to A&M and if they win out and upset Georgia, Bama will be in. Georgia probably needs 2 losses to be eliminated.

Big 10: The Eastern 4 still have to play roundrobin amongst each other so some losses are coming. Iowa doesn’t look so invincible now.

Cincinnati will also benefit if ND and SMU continue to do well.
10-18-2021 01:11 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #172
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
Iowa losing to Purdue was the sixth Top 5 team to lose a game this year - half a season yet to go. What does this mean? Don't bet on stability at the top as we continue moving forward. Latest ESPN Playoff Predictor:

90% Georgia
62% Oklahoma
61% Cincinnati
59% Alabama
38% Michigan
36% Ohio St
15% Pitt
10% Michigan St
5% Notre Dame
5% Penn St
10-18-2021 01:17 PM
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Post: #173
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
The B1G is getting the usual biased infused rankings with all those teams from 5-12 range. Only one has beaten a ranked opponent other than other artificially highly ranked B1G take and that is Penn State beating Auburn, which wasn't even ranked last week.
10-18-2021 04:54 PM
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Post: #174
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-18-2021 04:54 PM)RTPBearcat Wrote:  The B1G is getting the usual biased infused rankings with all those teams from 5-12 range. Only one has beaten a ranked opponent other than other artificially highly ranked B1G take and that is Penn State beating Auburn, which wasn't even ranked last week.

It’s like when mid major conferences figured out how to game the RPI by scheduling bad teams that were only in the 200 range and then once they got to conference play everyone inflated their rankings by playing each other every week.
10-18-2021 05:02 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #175
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-18-2021 05:02 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  
(10-18-2021 04:54 PM)RTPBearcat Wrote:  The B1G is getting the usual biased infused rankings with all those teams from 5-12 range. Only one has beaten a ranked opponent other than other artificially highly ranked B1G take and that is Penn State beating Auburn, which wasn't even ranked last week.

It’s like when mid major conferences figured out how to game the RPI by scheduling bad teams that were only in the 200 range and then once they got to conference play everyone inflated their rankings by playing each other every week.

Well, it's about time when the computers have washed out all their fill-in data from last year, and we can use them to compare teams. Here's the MC. It does have five B1G teams in the top 10:

https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
(This post was last modified: 10-18-2021 05:21 PM by quo vadis.)
10-18-2021 05:20 PM
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Post: #176
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-18-2021 09:43 AM)BigEastMike Wrote:  UM and MSU will lose to both PSU and OSU will beat all 3 then make quick work of Iowa in the CCG.

UGA vs OSU

Cincy vs OU

Thats your playoff field as of now.

Yet OU gets a pass for getting blown out every year they made an appearance in the playoff?
10-18-2021 05:28 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #177
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-18-2021 01:17 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Iowa losing to Purdue was the sixth Top 5 team to lose a game this year - half a season yet to go. What does this mean? Don't bet on stability at the top as we continue moving forward. Latest ESPN Playoff Predictor:

90% Georgia
62% Oklahoma
61% Cincinnati
59% Alabama
38% Michigan
36% Ohio St
15% Pitt
10% Michigan St
5% Notre Dame
5% Penn St

With Iowa losing, it seems like the B1G is down to one team in the CFP. The Game is lining-up to have CFP implications…it’s been a while.

I’m surprised by Pitt’s high percentile. If they can beat Clemson this weekend, they will be the darlings of the media.

This is turning into an ideal year for an undefeated G5 champ like Cincinnati.
10-18-2021 05:30 PM
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Crayton Online
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Post: #178
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-18-2021 05:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-18-2021 05:02 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  
(10-18-2021 04:54 PM)RTPBearcat Wrote:  The B1G is getting the usual biased infused rankings with all those teams from 5-12 range. Only one has beaten a ranked opponent other than other artificially highly ranked B1G take and that is Penn State beating Auburn, which wasn't even ranked last week.

It’s like when mid major conferences figured out how to game the RPI by scheduling bad teams that were only in the 200 range and then once they got to conference play everyone inflated their rankings by playing each other every week.

Well, it's about time when the computers have washed out all their fill-in data from last year, and we can use them to compare teams. Here's the MC. It does have five B1G teams in the top 10:

https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Ya, RPI, like the old BCS Computers, did not consider MOV (margin-of-victory). Most computer rankings take that into account now, unshackled from their previous BCS overlords. Most incorporate diminishing returns so as not to over-value running the score up. I tried to make mine MOV-neutral, where blowing out an opponent makes you look good on others' schedules but makes your own schedule look weaker; MOV (actually an SRS, so it is schedule dependent) is still used in some tie-breaking circumstances.
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Crayton Online
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Post: #179
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-18-2021 01:17 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Iowa losing to Purdue was the sixth Top 5 team to lose a game this year - half a season yet to go. What does this mean? Don't bet on stability at the top as we continue moving forward. Latest ESPN Playoff Predictor:

90% Georgia
62% Oklahoma
61% Cincinnati
59% Alabama
38% Michigan
36% Ohio St
15% Pitt
10% Michigan St
5% Notre Dame
5% Penn St

When you play around with the "Win Out" function you find that Cincinnati is at 93%. The following 3 teams clock-in above that:

SEC Champs: Alabama, Georgia (0 or 1 loss)
B1G Champs: Ohio State, Michigan (0 or 1 loss)
B12 Champs: Oklahoma

Some other notables:
93% 13-0 Michigan State
91% Oklahoma, 1-loss Champ
90% Georgia lose CCG
84% 12-1 Penn State
83% 2-loss 'Bama/Georgia Champ
77% 12-1 Ole Miss
67% 12-1 Pitt
62% 12-1 Iowa
41% 11-2 Iowa State
32% 11-1 Notre Dame
32% 11-2 Clemson
12% 13-0 Coastal
12% 2-loss Iowa Champ

Wake Forest is not listed, so cannot tell if they would box Cincinnati out. Some of these are questionable. Not sure an undefeated Big Ten Champ is behind a Cincinnati or anywhere south of 99%. Also not buying a 12-1 Ole Miss down at 77%. 2-loss ISU > 2-loss Iowa?
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 07:42 AM by Crayton.)
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