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Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
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LeeNobody Offline
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Post: #1
Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
As the other option for the AAC have declined, the AAC is looking to CUSA and the Sunbelt to add teams. There has been chatter about the AAC going big and grabbing 8 teams. Is this mutually beneficial for ESPN and the AAC. If the 8 teams take most of the value out of Sunbelt, and Cusa, ESPN can renegotiate the value down and push this content to ESPN+ even more. In the next round of TV deals, ESPN could simply no bid these conferences. What would the values of CUSA and Sunbelt be without: App State, Louisiana, Marshall, UAB, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State/Southern, UTSA/Rice and Old Dominion?

Pods might look like:
SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, UTSA/Rice
Navy, Temple, Marshall, ODU
Coastal, GaSo/St, ECU, App State
Memphis, UAB, USF, Louisiana
Thoughts?
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2021 09:01 AM by LeeNobody.)
10-12-2021 08:25 AM
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Post: #2
RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
Why would ESPN want to kill off one of their other leagues, especially one that has decent teams at the top? Admittedly, I wouldn't put it past ESPN to consolidate as much of the quality G5 into one conference, but it seems like a very risky play.
10-12-2021 08:32 AM
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EagleNationRising Offline
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 08:25 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  As the other option for the AAC have declined, the AAC is looking to CUSA and the Sunbelt to add teams. There has been chatter about the AAC going big and grabbing 8 teams. Is this mutually beneficial for ESPN and the AAC. If the 8 teams take most of the value out of Sunbelt, and Cusa, ESPN can renegotiate the value down and push this content to ESPN+ even more. In the next round of TV deals, ESPN could simply no bid these conferences. What would the values of CUSA and Sunbelt be without: App State, Louisiana, Marshall, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State/Southern, UAB, UTSA/Rice?

Pods might look like:
SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, UTSA/Rice
Navy, Temple, Marshall, ECU
Coastal, GaSo/St, ECU, App State
Memphis, UAB, USF, Louisiana
Thoughts?

Currently ESPN has no CUSA teams. The most beneficial thing for ESPN is to grab the most valuable cusa schools and add them to their portfolio. It seems like ESPN did not bid on the last cusa media deal. Grabbing Sunbelt schools would more likely hurt ESPN more than help as its unlikely you can lower the Sunbelt contract as much as they'd raise the AAC contract (for the Sunbelt schools).

Ex: Let's say that it's true that the Sinbelt is getting paid 1.4 million per school now. If they take the heart from the Sunbelt and move it to the aac, and the aac contract ends up being like 3.5 million per school, that's a net gain of 2 million per Sunbelt school. Taking half the Sunbelt, and ESPN loses on that deal.
10-12-2021 08:39 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
There's no way I believe that ESPN is going to make a 16 teams AAC with just C-USA/Sun Belt schools a financially viable option. Maybe I'm wrong and they want content for ESPN+ that badly, but if there's any truth to that whole "16 team" thing being considered that has to either be a return play to the MWC since it sounds like part of the reason they said no was wanting at least 4 teams added, or some kind of weird all sports/FB only/non-FB hybrid additions. Obviously I don't think this is likely at all, but maybe something like UAB and insert your next favorite choice all sports, App State and maybe like UTSA FB only, and then like 4 non-FB schools some combination of Dayton/VCU/St. Louis/whoever else fits in this group. Basically recreating C-USA 1.0, which is honestly a far better idea than attempting to recreate C-USA 2.0 or 3.0.
10-12-2021 08:52 AM
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Michael in Raleigh Online
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
The AAC is in a tough position.

1) Any addition is at least their fifth choice behind the four MW schools it pursued. In all likelihood, an addition would likely be sixth behind FB-only Army, who I am fairly certain has been pursued as well.

2) The threat that the Big 12 could take Memphis remains. Even worse, there is the threat the Big 12 could also go after USF and/or SMU. This makes the AAC even less attractive to C-USA and especially SB schools.

3) Some C-USA and SB schools that the AAC may be otherwise interested in may turn down an invitation because their athletic budget is so far below the lowest athletic budget in the AAC, much less the median AAC budget. Rumors are that UTSA has already turned down overtures from the AAC, though this has yet to be confirmed my a reputable reporter.

4) The AAC will have a hard time coming to a consensus about what exactly it wants to be. Does it primarily want academic peers with R1 Carnegie profiles? If so, that may come at the expense of athletic success, support, and budget. Does it want to go after football success? That may come at the expense of matching the academic missions of the current AAC schools, as well as athletic budget. Another question is how much basketball profile factors in.

5) It is a valid question whether the AAC boxed itself in with the P6 campaign. If it adds, for example, Charlotte, how can that campaign continue if it is adding the program with the smallest stadium in FBS? If the AAC adds schools and continues the P6 campaign, and includes all the new members, why, then, did the league not add those new schools when UConn departed? How are they suddenly "P6" quality if they were not a mere two years ago?

6) Isn't a concern when the president of a conference member, the president of Temple, publicly states that conferences need to be more regional? That's impossible with the AAC as it is currently constructed. Philadelphia to Wichita to Dallas to Tampa is not regional.
-----
Now, I believe the AAC can reach a consensus on one school: UAB. UAB, I believe, would also be a willing partner and would choose the AAC over it's current league and over the SB. But the AAC needs to go to, at minimum, 10 schools. And it may want to go to 12, or, as speculated, as many as 16.

All that said, I do think the AAC will keep it simple. Rather than going hog wild and adding 8 schools, I think it just adds two members to get to ten total. UAB, as I said, is in, and I expect the league to add the most academically appealing school available, Rice. These are college presidents making these decisions, after all. However, I think Rice will only be invited if Rice pledges to commit to athletics in a way it hasn't in decades. Otherwise, I just don't have any idea.
10-12-2021 09:02 AM
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MinerInWisconsin Offline
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 08:25 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  As the other option for the AAC have declined, the AAC is looking to CUSA and the Sunbelt to add teams. There has been chatter about the AAC going big and grabbing 8 teams. Is this mutually beneficial for ESPN and the AAC. If the 8 teams take most of the value out of Sunbelt, and Cusa, ESPN can renegotiate the value down and push this content to ESPN+ even more. In the next round of TV deals, ESPN could simply no bid these conferences. What would the values of CUSA and Sunbelt be without: App State, Louisiana, Marshall, UAB, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State/Southern, UTSA/Rice and Old Dominion?

Pods might look like:
SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, UTSA/Rice
Navy, Temple, Marshall, ODU
Coastal, GaSo/St, ECU, App State
Memphis, UAB, USF, Louisiana
Thoughts?

What chatter? But if this did come to pass it would certainly give the SBC and CUSA reason to either regionalize or merge.
10-12-2021 09:13 AM
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Attackcoog Online
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 08:39 AM)EagleNationRising Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 08:25 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  As the other option for the AAC have declined, the AAC is looking to CUSA and the Sunbelt to add teams. There has been chatter about the AAC going big and grabbing 8 teams. Is this mutually beneficial for ESPN and the AAC. If the 8 teams take most of the value out of Sunbelt, and Cusa, ESPN can renegotiate the value down and push this content to ESPN+ even more. In the next round of TV deals, ESPN could simply no bid these conferences. What would the values of CUSA and Sunbelt be without: App State, Louisiana, Marshall, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State/Southern, UAB, UTSA/Rice?

Pods might look like:
SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, UTSA/Rice
Navy, Temple, Marshall, ECU
Coastal, GaSo/St, ECU, App State
Memphis, UAB, USF, Louisiana
Thoughts?

Currently ESPN has no CUSA teams. The most beneficial thing for ESPN is to grab the most valuable cusa schools and add them to their portfolio. It seems like ESPN did not bid on the last cusa media deal. Grabbing Sunbelt schools would more likely hurt ESPN more than help as its unlikely you can lower the Sunbelt contract as much as they'd raise the AAC contract (for the Sunbelt schools).

Ex: Let's say that it's true that the Sinbelt is getting paid 1.4 million per school now. If they take the heart from the Sunbelt and move it to the aac, and the aac contract ends up being like 3.5 million per school, that's a net gain of 2 million per Sunbelt school. Taking half the Sunbelt, and ESPN loses on that deal.

How so? In your example ESPN is now saving 4 million a year per team in the AAC (nearly a 60% savings) and they will likely slash the SB deal back to CUSA level. That’s said—-Ive come come to the conclusion I don’t think ESPN really cares. It’s all rounding errors when it comes to how much they are going to have to pay the new SEC with Texas and Oklahoma. Even if they preferred the AAC to take from CUSA, the reality is the whole CUSA deal comes up for renewal next year. ESPN could easily buy the whole silly CUSA deal for 12 million (almost a 50% increase over what CUSA now makes). It will cost ESPN 12 million to just get 4 CUSA teams into the AAC at 3 million a pop. Since no CUSA team would be playing in the AAC prior to 2022—there is really no huge advantage for ESPN having the AAC pluck teams ESPN could get for less money on their own.

So—I’ve come to the conclusion they probably would just want the AAC to select the best long term options available so the AAC—-the conference they pay the most for and is filling the most linear slots for ESPN—remains as interesting as possible as a media property. In other words, I don’t think ESPN cares one way or another where the AAC replacements come from—they’d just like them to be among the best media draws available to the AAC.
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2021 09:44 AM by Attackcoog.)
10-12-2021 09:34 AM
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Attackcoog Online
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 09:02 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The AAC is in a tough position.

1) Any addition is at least their fifth choice behind the four MW schools it pursued. In all likelihood, an addition would likely be sixth behind FB-only Army, who I am fairly certain has been pursued as well.

2) The threat that the Big 12 could take Memphis remains. Even worse, there is the threat the Big 12 could also go after USF and/or SMU. This makes the AAC even less attractive to C-USA and especially SB schools.

3) Some C-USA and SB schools that the AAC may be otherwise interested in may turn down an invitation because their athletic budget is so far below the lowest athletic budget in the AAC, much less the median AAC budget. Rumors are that UTSA has already turned down overtures from the AAC, though this has yet to be confirmed my a reputable reporter.

4) The AAC will have a hard time coming to a consensus about what exactly it wants to be. Does it primarily want academic peers with R1 Carnegie profiles? If so, that may come at the expense of athletic success, support, and budget. Does it want to go after football success? That may come at the expense of matching the academic missions of the current AAC schools, as well as athletic budget. Another question is how much basketball profile factors in.

5) It is a valid question whether the AAC boxed itself in with the P6 campaign. If it adds, for example, Charlotte, how can that campaign continue if it is adding the program with the smallest stadium in FBS? If the AAC adds schools and continues the P6 campaign, and includes all the new members, why, then, did the league not add those new schools when UConn departed? How are they suddenly "P6" quality if they were not a mere two years ago?

6) Isn't a concern when the president of a conference member, the president of Temple, publicly states that conferences need to be more regional? That's impossible with the AAC as it is currently constructed. Philadelphia to Wichita to Dallas to Tampa is not regional.
-----
Now, I believe the AAC can reach a consensus on one school: UAB. UAB, I believe, would also be a willing partner and would choose the AAC over it's current league and over the SB. But the AAC needs to go to, at minimum, 10 schools. And it may want to go to 12, or, as speculated, as many as 16.

All that said, I do think the AAC will keep it simple. Rather than going hog wild and adding 8 schools, I think it just adds two members to get to ten total. UAB, as I said, is in, and I expect the league to add the most academically appealing school available, Rice. These are college presidents making these decisions, after all. However, I think Rice will only be invited if Rice pledges to commit to athletics in a way it hasn't in decades. Otherwise, I just don't have any idea.

Ehh. In the final analysis your basically admitting what the AAC has been saying. The P6 AAC marketing turned out to be more right than wrong. Of the schools promoted to the Big12 from the G5—-all 3 were from the AAC. Your own post indicates they might take 3 more AAC schools. At the very least that makes the AAC the primary feeder conference to the P5—not the Sunbelt, not CUSA, and not the MW.

Of all those points, I’d say only your point #4 is real substantive issue. I agree—the AAC will find few schools that check all the boxes this time around—-thus, they will have to decide what attribute they most desire in a conference and go after replacements that best reflect that attribute. The AAC is going to have to set an identity for their conference and prioritize schools that reflect that identity.
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2021 10:52 AM by Attackcoog.)
10-12-2021 09:59 AM
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
No.
10-12-2021 10:01 AM
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 09:59 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 09:02 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The AAC is in a tough position.

1) Any addition is at least their fifth choice behind the four MW schools it pursued. In all likelihood, an addition would likely be sixth behind FB-only Army, who I am fairly certain has been pursued as well.

2) The threat that the Big 12 could take Memphis remains. Even worse, there is the threat the Big 12 could also go after USF and/or SMU. This makes the AAC even less attractive to C-USA and especially SB schools.

3) Some C-USA and SB schools that the AAC may be otherwise interested in may turn down an invitation because their athletic budget is so far below the lowest athletic budget in the AAC, much less the median AAC budget. Rumors are that UTSA has already turned down overtures from the AAC, though this has yet to be confirmed my a reputable reporter.

4) The AAC will have a hard time coming to a consensus about what exactly it wants to be. Does it primarily want academic peers with R1 Carnegie profiles? If so, that may come at the expense of athletic success, support, and budget. Does it want to go after football success? That may come at the expense of matching the academic missions of the current AAC schools, as well as athletic budget. Another question is how much basketball profile factors in.

5) It is a valid question whether the AAC boxed itself in with the P6 campaign. If it adds, for example, Charlotte, how can that campaign continue if it is adding the program with the smallest stadium in FBS? If the AAC adds schools and continues the P6 campaign, and includes all the new members, why, then, did the league not add those new schools when UConn departed? How are they suddenly "P6" quality if they were not a mere two years ago?

6) Isn't a concern when the president of a conference member, the president of Temple, publicly states that conferences need to be more regional? That's impossible with the AAC as it is currently constructed. Philadelphia to Wichita to Dallas to Tampa is not regional.
-----
Now, I believe the AAC can reach a consensus on one school: UAB. UAB, I believe, would also be a willing partner and would choose the AAC over it's current league and over the SB. But the AAC needs to go to, at minimum, 10 schools. And it may want to go to 12, or, as speculated, as many as 16.

All that said, I do think the AAC will keep it simple. Rather than going hog wild and adding 8 schools, I think it just adds two members to get to ten total. UAB, as I said, is in, and I expect the league to add the most academically appealing school available, Rice. These are college presidents making these decisions, after all. However, I think Rice will only be invited if Rice pledges to commit to athletics in a way it hasn't in decades. Otherwise, I just don't have any idea.

Ehh. In the final analysis your basically admitting what the AAC has been saying. The P6 AAC marketing turned out to be more right than wrong. Of the schools promoted to the Big12 from the G5—-all 3 were from the AAC. Your own post indicates they might take 3 more AAC schools. At the very least that makes the AAC the primary feeder conference to the P5—not the Sunbelt, not CUSA, and not the MW.

Of all those points, I’d say only your point #4 is real substantive issue. I agree—the AAC will find few schools that check all the boxes this time around—-thus, they will have to decide what attribute they most desire in a conference and go after replacements that best reflect that attribute. The AAC is going to have to se an identity fir their conference and prioritize schools that reflect that identity.

I would venture to say that after SMU, South Florida, and Memphis, the AAC doesn't have anything else the Big XII or any other Power Conference could want.
10-12-2021 10:19 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 10:19 AM)All4One Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 09:59 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 09:02 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The AAC is in a tough position.

1) Any addition is at least their fifth choice behind the four MW schools it pursued. In all likelihood, an addition would likely be sixth behind FB-only Army, who I am fairly certain has been pursued as well.

2) The threat that the Big 12 could take Memphis remains. Even worse, there is the threat the Big 12 could also go after USF and/or SMU. This makes the AAC even less attractive to C-USA and especially SB schools.

3) Some C-USA and SB schools that the AAC may be otherwise interested in may turn down an invitation because their athletic budget is so far below the lowest athletic budget in the AAC, much less the median AAC budget. Rumors are that UTSA has already turned down overtures from the AAC, though this has yet to be confirmed my a reputable reporter.

4) The AAC will have a hard time coming to a consensus about what exactly it wants to be. Does it primarily want academic peers with R1 Carnegie profiles? If so, that may come at the expense of athletic success, support, and budget. Does it want to go after football success? That may come at the expense of matching the academic missions of the current AAC schools, as well as athletic budget. Another question is how much basketball profile factors in.

5) It is a valid question whether the AAC boxed itself in with the P6 campaign. If it adds, for example, Charlotte, how can that campaign continue if it is adding the program with the smallest stadium in FBS? If the AAC adds schools and continues the P6 campaign, and includes all the new members, why, then, did the league not add those new schools when UConn departed? How are they suddenly "P6" quality if they were not a mere two years ago?

6) Isn't a concern when the president of a conference member, the president of Temple, publicly states that conferences need to be more regional? That's impossible with the AAC as it is currently constructed. Philadelphia to Wichita to Dallas to Tampa is not regional.
-----
Now, I believe the AAC can reach a consensus on one school: UAB. UAB, I believe, would also be a willing partner and would choose the AAC over it's current league and over the SB. But the AAC needs to go to, at minimum, 10 schools. And it may want to go to 12, or, as speculated, as many as 16.

All that said, I do think the AAC will keep it simple. Rather than going hog wild and adding 8 schools, I think it just adds two members to get to ten total. UAB, as I said, is in, and I expect the league to add the most academically appealing school available, Rice. These are college presidents making these decisions, after all. However, I think Rice will only be invited if Rice pledges to commit to athletics in a way it hasn't in decades. Otherwise, I just don't have any idea.

Ehh. In the final analysis your basically admitting what the AAC has been saying. The P6 AAC marketing turned out to be more right than wrong. Of the schools promoted to the Big12 from the G5—-all 3 were from the AAC. Your own post indicates they might take 3 more AAC schools. At the very least that makes the AAC the primary feeder conference to the P5—not the Sunbelt, not CUSA, and not the MW.

Of all those points, I’d say only your point #4 is real substantive issue. I agree—the AAC will find few schools that check all the boxes this time around—-thus, they will have to decide what attribute they most desire in a conference and go after replacements that best reflect that attribute. The AAC is going to have to se an identity fir their conference and prioritize schools that reflect that identity.

I would venture to say that after SMU, South Florida, and Memphis, the AAC doesn't have anything else the Big XII or any other Power Conference could want.

How much does the MWC or any other G5 league have that any other Power Conferences want? I also suspect that someone in the AAC will become someone Power Conferences could want in the future, same as Houston and UCF did (Cincy was seriously considered prior to the AAC forming so I won't count them).
10-12-2021 10:29 AM
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
The AAC isn't adding 8 schools and ESPN wouldn't want to pay for 8 new schools. 90% chance they take 2 or 4.
10-12-2021 10:45 AM
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 10:19 AM)All4One Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 09:59 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 09:02 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The AAC is in a tough position.

1) Any addition is at least their fifth choice behind the four MW schools it pursued. In all likelihood, an addition would likely be sixth behind FB-only Army, who I am fairly certain has been pursued as well.

2) The threat that the Big 12 could take Memphis remains. Even worse, there is the threat the Big 12 could also go after USF and/or SMU. This makes the AAC even less attractive to C-USA and especially SB schools.

3) Some C-USA and SB schools that the AAC may be otherwise interested in may turn down an invitation because their athletic budget is so far below the lowest athletic budget in the AAC, much less the median AAC budget. Rumors are that UTSA has already turned down overtures from the AAC, though this has yet to be confirmed my a reputable reporter.

4) The AAC will have a hard time coming to a consensus about what exactly it wants to be. Does it primarily want academic peers with R1 Carnegie profiles? If so, that may come at the expense of athletic success, support, and budget. Does it want to go after football success? That may come at the expense of matching the academic missions of the current AAC schools, as well as athletic budget. Another question is how much basketball profile factors in.

5) It is a valid question whether the AAC boxed itself in with the P6 campaign. If it adds, for example, Charlotte, how can that campaign continue if it is adding the program with the smallest stadium in FBS? If the AAC adds schools and continues the P6 campaign, and includes all the new members, why, then, did the league not add those new schools when UConn departed? How are they suddenly "P6" quality if they were not a mere two years ago?

6) Isn't a concern when the president of a conference member, the president of Temple, publicly states that conferences need to be more regional? That's impossible with the AAC as it is currently constructed. Philadelphia to Wichita to Dallas to Tampa is not regional.
-----
Now, I believe the AAC can reach a consensus on one school: UAB. UAB, I believe, would also be a willing partner and would choose the AAC over it's current league and over the SB. But the AAC needs to go to, at minimum, 10 schools. And it may want to go to 12, or, as speculated, as many as 16.

All that said, I do think the AAC will keep it simple. Rather than going hog wild and adding 8 schools, I think it just adds two members to get to ten total. UAB, as I said, is in, and I expect the league to add the most academically appealing school available, Rice. These are college presidents making these decisions, after all. However, I think Rice will only be invited if Rice pledges to commit to athletics in a way it hasn't in decades. Otherwise, I just don't have any idea.

Ehh. In the final analysis your basically admitting what the AAC has been saying. The P6 AAC marketing turned out to be more right than wrong. Of the schools promoted to the Big12 from the G5—-all 3 were from the AAC. Your own post indicates they might take 3 more AAC schools. At the very least that makes the AAC the primary feeder conference to the P5—not the Sunbelt, not CUSA, and not the MW.

Of all those points, I’d say only your point #4 is real substantive issue. I agree—the AAC will find few schools that check all the boxes this time around—-thus, they will have to decide what attribute they most desire in a conference and go after replacements that best reflect that attribute. The AAC is going to have to se an identity fir their conference and prioritize schools that reflect that identity.

I would venture to say that after SMU, South Florida, and Memphis, the AAC doesn't have anything else the Big XII or any other Power Conference could want.

And before the 8 years they spent in the AAC incubator---none of the current P5 want any of them. Eight years from now---who knows? I suspect that the willingness to make a financial commitment to spend near the bottom of the current AAC athletic budget range is one of the hurdles ANY finalist will be required to clear. While any single snap shot of the current standings might make budget size appear irrelevant with respect to results on the field---over the long term--that willingness to spend at a higher level is an important factor in the AAC's successful rise since 2013.
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2021 11:02 AM by Attackcoog.)
10-12-2021 10:55 AM
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RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 09:13 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 08:25 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  As the other option for the AAC have declined, the AAC is looking to CUSA and the Sunbelt to add teams. There has been chatter about the AAC going big and grabbing 8 teams. Is this mutually beneficial for ESPN and the AAC. If the 8 teams take most of the value out of Sunbelt, and Cusa, ESPN can renegotiate the value down and push this content to ESPN+ even more. In the next round of TV deals, ESPN could simply no bid these conferences. What would the values of CUSA and Sunbelt be without: App State, Louisiana, Marshall, UAB, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State/Southern, UTSA/Rice and Old Dominion?

Pods might look like:
SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, UTSA/Rice
Navy, Temple, Marshall, ODU
Coastal, GaSo/St, ECU, App State
Memphis, UAB, USF, Louisiana
Thoughts?

What chatter? But if this did come to pass it would certainly give the SBC and CUSA reason to either regionalize or merge.

If they do go to 16 I suspect 15 and 16 would be schools like Dayton and St. Louis for basketball
10-12-2021 10:56 AM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #15
RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 10:56 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 09:13 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 08:25 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  As the other option for the AAC have declined, the AAC is looking to CUSA and the Sunbelt to add teams. There has been chatter about the AAC going big and grabbing 8 teams. Is this mutually beneficial for ESPN and the AAC. If the 8 teams take most of the value out of Sunbelt, and Cusa, ESPN can renegotiate the value down and push this content to ESPN+ even more. In the next round of TV deals, ESPN could simply no bid these conferences. What would the values of CUSA and Sunbelt be without: App State, Louisiana, Marshall, UAB, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State/Southern, UTSA/Rice and Old Dominion?

Pods might look like:
SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, UTSA/Rice
Navy, Temple, Marshall, ODU
Coastal, GaSo/St, ECU, App State
Memphis, UAB, USF, Louisiana
Thoughts?

What chatter? But if this did come to pass it would certainly give the SBC and CUSA reason to either regionalize or merge.

If they do go to 16 I suspect 15 and 16 would be schools like Dayton and St. Louis for basketball

That sounds more likely. I still like the idea of just adding just two---and then layering on a pair of solid basketball additions like you suggest.
10-12-2021 11:04 AM
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Post: #16
RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 08:39 AM)EagleNationRising Wrote:  Ex: Let's say that it's true that the Sinbelt is getting paid 1.4 million per school now. If they take the heart from the Sunbelt and move it to the aac, and the aac contract ends up being like 3.5 million per school, that's a net gain of 2 million per Sunbelt school. Taking half the Sunbelt, and ESPN loses on that deal.

Also, they are not just collectible trading cards. From ESPN's perspective, they are sources of programming, and they play different roles. The Sunbelt provides ESPN with midweek games in September and October. The AAC provides a flexible supply of games to slot into Saturday ESPNU and sometimes higher programming slots, based on what is available in that week from the P5.

A single conference does not serve ESPN's needs as well as a pair. So why would ESPN want to gut the Sunbelt?

The sensible commercial decision is for ESPN to analyze what the AAC would be at 10, with two from CUSA, and what it would be at 12, with four from CUSA, and how much increase in programming value the AAC at 12 would provide to ESPN, and then when the AAC's "media consultants" come to talk to them ... tell them, including specifics about specific possible combinations.

And then, the AAC Presidents decide based on the input from their "media consultants" as well as their own view of the strategic benefits of different possible realignments.
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2021 11:06 AM by BruceMcF.)
10-12-2021 11:04 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 09:13 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  
(10-12-2021 08:25 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  As the other option for the AAC have declined, the AAC is looking to CUSA and the Sunbelt to add teams. There has been chatter about the AAC going big and grabbing 8 teams. Is this mutually beneficial for ESPN and the AAC. If the 8 teams take most of the value out of Sunbelt, and Cusa, ESPN can renegotiate the value down and push this content to ESPN+ even more. In the next round of TV deals, ESPN could simply no bid these conferences. What would the values of CUSA and Sunbelt be without: App State, Louisiana, Marshall, UAB, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State/Southern, UTSA/Rice and Old Dominion?

Pods might look like:
SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, UTSA/Rice
Navy, Temple, Marshall, ODU
Coastal, GaSo/St, ECU, App State
Memphis, UAB, USF, Louisiana
Thoughts?

What chatter? But if this did come to pass it would certainly give the SBC and CUSA reason to either regionalize or merge.

One almost throw away line that doesn't even sound like it has a real source in the Dodd regionalization article

"After failing to lure any Mountain West schools, sources said the AAC had set its sights East on some combination of UAB, North Texas, Texas State, UTSA, Appalachian State and perhaps others. There has also been buzz about Aresco going "big" and inviting up to eight schools to grow his conference to 16 teams."

This makes zero sense to me without either revisiting the MWC schools or some really weird hybrid model that ended up looking like C-USA 1.0 with a whole group of non-FB schools and some more FB only members. I think neither of those are realistic, but of the 2 there's a better chance of going back to the MWC schools and saying we'll add like 6-8 of you than convincing schools like App to join FB only and the best A10 schools to sign on to the AAC in this moment.
10-12-2021 11:06 AM
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TroyTBoy Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 11:04 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  A single conference does not serve ESPN's needs as well as a pair. So why would ESPN want to gut the Sunbelt?

There are really two schools of thought... one in which the Sunbelt doesn't get touched, and one in which it does...

The first school of thought is that the AAC needs to take the programs with the best blend of institutional profile and market (with recent success factored in to some extent)... in which case they would be selecting from a pool that includes:

Rice
UTSA
Charlotte
UAB
ODU
Buffalo

The second school of thought is that the AAC must look to immediate success and momentum of brand. This is where the Sunbelt schools that could/would factor into the AAC's plans enter the discussion. There really are 3:

Coastal Carolina
App State
Louisiana

The BIGGER the expansion, the more the Sunbelt schools must be involved to sell the league to the masses.

Personally, I would take 2 from the Sunbelt and 2 from the CUSA (if I were going to 12), mainly to make the expansion more sexy and reinforce hierarchy in the East.

The AAC should absolutely take Coastal Carolina and App State from the Belt to build on its P6 brand.

However, I'm admittedly not a school President.
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2021 11:22 AM by TroyTBoy.)
10-12-2021 11:20 AM
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Post: #19
RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
Actually, I am thinking this would make since for ESPN if they wanted to strengthen both Sun Belt and AAC, Basically kills off CUSA.

AAC grabs 6 the following to go 14

UTSA
RICE
North Texas
UAB
Charlotte (Even though App is a stronger football team)
ODU


Sun Belt gets grabs 4 teams (Probably goes all sports conference)
Marshall
La Tech
FAU
Southern Miss
10-12-2021 11:21 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Does ESPN want the AAC to take 8 from Sunbelt and CUSA
(10-12-2021 11:21 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Actually, I am thinking this would make since for ESPN if they wanted to strengthen both Sun Belt and AAC, Basically kills off CUSA.

AAC grabs 6 the following to go 14

UTSA
RICE
North Texas
UAB
Charlotte (Even though App is a stronger football team)
ODU


Sun Belt gets grabs 4 teams (Probably goes all sports conference)
Marshall
La Tech
FAU
Southern Miss

So like what are you envisioning ESPN paying the AAC to add almost all the schools that sank C-USA to the point they fell behind the Sun-Belt? Also what is the ESPN strategic benefit to killing C-USA? Like I could at least follow the logic of ESPN wanting to kill the B12, but what do they really gain by killing C-USA?
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2021 11:27 AM by b0ndsj0ns.)
10-12-2021 11:25 AM
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