Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 7
Teams with 1st Loss Week 6:
Alabama
Penn State
Brigham Young
Wyoming
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 6:
Auburn
Texas
Maryland
Arkansas
Virginia Tech
Western Michigan
Oregon State
Texas Tech
South Alabama
Teams with 1st Win Week 6:
Massachusetts
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
8: Conference champs of every conference except the MAC and PAC-12
-We dropped 1 this week with BYU's loss.
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 41.53% (54 of 130)
Week 2: 34.21% (26 of 76)
Week 3: 32% (16 of 50)
Week 4: 23.53% (8 of 34)
Week 5: 34.62% (9 of 26)
Week 6: 23.53% (4 of 17)
Week 6 Thoughts:
-The MAC was the first conference to be completely eliminated from all lists this week. All teams have more than a win and more than 2 losses. This is pretty early for this to happen if my memory serves.
-We have at most 4 games left between undefeated teams before bowl season. This week we'll have Kentucky/Georgia. In the Big 12, we can have Oklahoma/Oklahoma State. In the Big Ten, we can have Michigan State/Michigan and then the winner of that against a possible undefeated Iowa. It takes very little to throw off most the rest of those though and so we probably only have 1 or 2 left (Kentucky/Georgia is safe to be one and Michigan/Michigan State is likely to be; it is a lot of time for other 2 to happen).
-Lot of big things happened this week. The biggest story was definitely Alabama losing to Texas A@M. This is big because of the surprise and for the possibilities, but only matters in the end for the CFP if Alabama loses another one. If the Tide win out, they are still in. If Georgia wins out except against Alabama in the SE Championship, they are most likely in too. The Tide will likely be out if they lose in the SEC Championship to Georgia now though and that leaves open a door to others. Anyone who wants the SEC not to get 2 teams in, needs to root for one more Alabama loss and/or a Georgia loss before the SEC Championship.
-The most underrated story of the week was probably BYU losing to Boise State. At first glance this might not be big and probably wouldn't have ended up that way, but BYU had already won 3 PAC-12 games including against Arizona State who is now favored to win the PAC-12. They were going to play Baylor next week who was in the top part of the Big 12. There was definite room for BYU to make a lot of noise if they continued to win. Now they still have the chance at a NY6, but that is the limit of where any talk will go.
-Iowa beat Penn State in a game where Penn State lost its quarterback. This was a win the western division needed in the Big Ten to show it was not all the eastern teams this year. Penn State still controls its destiny, but can't lose again. Iowa could probably afford to lose 1 as long as it is not in the Big Ten Championship. There is a small chance this sets the Big Ten up for 2 in, but I don't see it as very likely final result.
-Oklahoma had a great come from behind win vs. Texas. Oklahoma is continues to look beatable, but is definitely coming along. Big 12 is now relying on one of the Oklahoma schools for the CFP spot (although Baylor could probably get to if wins out).
-Cincinnati easily took out Temple this week and moved up to #3 in the polls. It is a fantastic spot to be in and says a lot for the team and coaches. Despite their spot though, they will need some help as the season progresses for the committee to ultimately put them at 4. Based on the way the committee has gone, my view is that any undefeated champion from a power 5 conference will push past them and most 1-loss champs would as well (as would a 1-loss non-champ Georgia). The only one I could see possibly not passing an undefeated UC as a 1-loss champ right now, might be some ACC teams (and that is still debatable).
Despite this, a lot is actually going right for the Bearcats. The SEC odds at getting 2 in has declined, the ACC top is weak and hurting itself, and the PAC-12 is very close to cannibalizing itself. If those 3 happen or the Big Ten or Big 12 find their way out, UC will be in a position to find their way in if they win out. I'd still lean slightly against everything happening they need, but it is actually pretty close if they manage to win out and look mostly good doing it.
-On the rest of the Group of 5 front, I think we can say the likely order for the Group of 5 NY6 bowl spot looks like this:
1. Undefeated Cincinnati/SMU
2. Undefeated San Diego State
From there, watching the committee, I would lean very slightly to a 1-loss American champ in over an undefeated Coastal Carolina or UTSA. If we have a 2-loss American champ, Coastal and UTSA will beat that. Boise State's win over BYU meanwhile I think sets them up decently in the very off chance we start talking about a 2 loss American champ vs. a 2 loss Mountain West champ (would mean both UTSA and Coastal Carolina lose somewhere too).
Week 7 Thoughts:
-We have 1 game between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Kentucky @ undefeated Georgia: The last 2 undefeated in the SEC. Who would have guessed that for Kentucky? Their recruiting has showed upswings, but it never seemed to amount to much. They are big underdogs here but would shake up whole national title race if they win. They would also almost certainly be going to Atlanta with tiebreakers over both Florida and Georgia.
Yale at winless UConn: This is definitely the best chance at a win for UConn.
Undefeated Michigan State at Indiana: The Spartans are a small favorite on the road. Win this and a big matchup with Michigan is set up.
Undefeated Oklahoma State at Texas: Texas is favored here, but definitely much better for Big 12 to have the Cowboys win as can keep Big 12 with 2 undefeateds.
1-loss BYU at 1-loss Baylor: This is not as big a game as could have been, but still some importance to both sides. BYU is still playing for a NY6 bowl. A loss for the Baylor meanwhile leaves the Big 12's fate entirely in the state Oklahoma.
1-loss NC State at 1- loss Boston College: Boston college only a small underdog here. Having a 1 loss champ is the ACC's only hope at the CFP and NC State definitely has easier road there having already beat Clemson.
1-loss Arizona state @ Utah: This is a very big game for the PAC-12 here. Arizona State ranked and has potential to move up. The conference needs a 1-loss school to win to have a chance at the CFP. If the Sun Devils lose in this game that they are small favorites in, Oregon is the conference's only hope
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 13
Wake Forest
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Cincinnati
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Southern Methodist
San Diego State
Georgia
Kentucky
UTSA
Coastal Carolina
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 2. SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 4, total: 21
North Carolina State
Boston College
Pittsburgh
Houston
Baylor
Ohio State
UTEP
Nevada
Air Force
Oregon
Arizona
Mississippi
Appalachian State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Army
Liberty
Notre Dame
Alabama
Penn State
Brigham Young
Wyoming
Remaining Winless Teams: Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, independents: 1, total: 3
UNLV
Arizona
Connecticut
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Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 7
