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The American is getting applications this week
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #121
RE: The American is getting applications this week
(10-20-2021 08:04 AM)Latilleon Wrote:  
(10-19-2021 09:58 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  
(10-19-2021 07:23 AM)tigerlands Wrote:  Why would the conference even consider Rice? They bring absolutely nothing to the table with football. And football is what it is all about, right? Just because they are in a big market means nothing since their fan support is worse than even Houston. They would do better to go after Marshall or App State than Rice. Or Even MTSU.

I can think of around 6.4 million reasons why. AAC will remain in 4 of the top 10 markets in the US. And 6 teams in the top 20 markets. 7 if you include the Navy's proximity to DC.

There will be at least 4 and possibly 5 teams who will battle for top 25 status each year and will carry on the tradition of the AAC being G5 representative to Access Bowl.

Navy is in a top five TV market, because you need to count both the DC and Baltimore markets.

Army - Navy draws more viewers than all the games for the entire season of any other AAC member.
(This post was last modified: 10-20-2021 11:33 AM by Stammers.)
10-20-2021 11:33 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #122
RE: The American is getting applications this week
(10-19-2021 06:51 PM)Mimi Wrote:  
(10-19-2021 09:29 AM)CKMcDan Wrote:  UTSA is definitely benefitting from the timing of their good season. However, I'm curious about the "staying power" that UTSA will have going forward.

UTSA came into Memphis and had to come from behind to win on a last-minute field goal with a senior-laden team. How good will they be next year once all of those seniors graduate?

Yes, San Antonio is a large market, but this league is full of teams that barely move the needle in their large markets.

Agree

This seems incredibly over reactionary to a school having a good season being taken over several schools with much longer runs of success

The big market TX if possible moves seem to be the deal here, but man oh man while there are no mega schools out there in the Belt and CUSA there are stronger schools than this

Fanbase has to matter

The #1 thing to remember is that the Remaining 8 keep their tv revenue as is. That was a priority and it appears to be happening.

To accomplish this, ESPN must have provided a list of programs that would work in this formula.

UTSA is the local college in a top 50 market. They may not have major penetration, but it gets on tv sets there.

UTSA, UNT, and Rice also help to block the MWC from getting into Texas. Key point.

Finally some have reported that UTSA and UNT are showing a strong commitment to growing their athletic programs. That is something the committee finds out after interviewing the candidates - and that the public doesn't necessarily know.
10-20-2021 01:33 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #123
RE: The American is getting applications this week
(10-19-2021 09:03 PM)GoDownSwinging Wrote:  
(10-19-2021 05:16 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(10-19-2021 05:00 PM)GoDownSwinging Wrote:  If this happens, we're at the point where botching football in the American (head into independent) and heading over to the Big East will be the best thing possible (olympic sports). That'll give football more matchups with Notre Dame, Ole Miss, and other P5 suitors. In addition, we could still eye for a spot at the big group of 5 bowl game.

In football, you still have the opportunity to play Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and other P5 schools. We don't have to deal with Charlotte, UTSA, UAB, etc.

In basketball, Butler, Creighton, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Xavier, and UConn coming to the FedEx Forum? Plus the games will be on Fox/FS1/FS2? That, to me, is the better deal to take.

What do you wanna call that model?
"The UConn model" - the worst team in college football this year?
Or, "The BYU model" - which they are abandoning in order to join a conference?

The last season UConn won 4 games in football was in 2015. They've been bad for a while.
BYU has the market, the fanbase, and the academics, that is what got them into the Big12. In 2019, BYU was 22 in the country in attendance with an average of 59,000+. Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas were the only 3 Big 12 schools that averaged more than BYU in attendance.

Where do you want this athletic program to go? They can't afford to sit there and go to the Big 12 which the direction of where the football is going.
Going 8-4/9-3 is acceptable to some in the AAC with the current conference members.
If the AAC add the majority (if not, all) of the 6 "new" members. Then going 8-4/9-3 is down right unacceptable.

The University got finessed by the city because of playing in a stadium that is "cheap" to the University. The city knows the U of M can't build a stadium on school property, so adding little renovations to the stadium is nice.
The university knows that not having a OCS is holding them back on so many things. Yet, they're downgrading to the Liberty Bowl because it's the only option. The athletic department and the University are stuck and they have no where to run.

Struggling to follow all your arguments. They seem a bit disjointed. Summary seems to suggest you want the football to go indy because they can't get an OCS. hmmm...

You don't go indy in football today. Period. It's a recipe for failure. UConn did it because they were already there, and don't care about football. We are not UConn.

Giving up football marginalizes the entire university. We could no longer consider ourselves one of the top public universities in the state. Currently stagnant enrollment would decline dramatically.

Anyone suggesting indy in football cannot be taken seriously. So this is the last I'll reply to you about this.
10-20-2021 01:37 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #124
RE: The American is getting applications this week
(10-19-2021 09:20 PM)TylerTiger Wrote:  
(10-19-2021 05:16 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(10-19-2021 05:00 PM)GoDownSwinging Wrote:  If this happens, we're at the point where botching football in the American (head into independent) and heading over to the Big East will be the best thing possible (olympic sports). That'll give football more matchups with Notre Dame, Ole Miss, and other P5 suitors. In addition, we could still eye for a spot at the big group of 5 bowl game.

In football, you still have the opportunity to play Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and other P5 schools. We don't have to deal with Charlotte, UTSA, UAB, etc.

In basketball, Butler, Creighton, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Xavier, and UConn coming to the FedEx Forum? Plus the games will be on Fox/FS1/FS2? That, to me, is the better deal to take.

What do you wanna call that model?
"The UConn model" - the worst team in college football this year?
Or, "The BYU model" - which they are abandoning in order to join a conference?

The thing to remember about BYU is they have their own network deal, and a big base backed by Mormons all over. It works for them because they get the financial backing, much like Notre Dame. The only difference is Notre Dame has had NBC shilling out to them. And even Notre Dame has compromised with the ACC.

The other independents don’t have that. Army is somewhat an exception because it is a military school and has the government.

Long ago being Independent might be fine for us. It isn’t anymore.

Absolutely
And even BYU is giving up the indy model because they can't get access to good bowls, CFP, scheduling is getting tougher, and the tv money is better.
10-20-2021 01:39 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #125
RE: The American is getting applications this week
(10-20-2021 12:57 AM)BIGDTiger Wrote:  I’ve yet to understand why the conference needs to expand, and especially by so many. This is subtraction by addition if I’ve ever seen it. Adding UTSA because of one good season, wth. Not one of these teams makes sense.

Aresco talks about raising the profile of these schools. WTH is he talking about. Teams raise their own profile. Like we did. It’s disgusting. Our football, and even worse, basketball schedule will be horrific. It’s already bad enough that P5’s won’t play us, now we are adding horrific mandatory opponents.

Our payout is staying the same.
ESPN needs expansion for content in order to keep our payout the same.
UTSA is supposedly an up and comer.
The AAC will absolutely help expedite that through our profile.
10-20-2021 01:41 PM
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Stammers Offline
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Post: #126
RE: The American is getting applications this week
(10-20-2021 01:33 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(10-19-2021 06:51 PM)Mimi Wrote:  
(10-19-2021 09:29 AM)CKMcDan Wrote:  UTSA is definitely benefitting from the timing of their good season. However, I'm curious about the "staying power" that UTSA will have going forward.

UTSA came into Memphis and had to come from behind to win on a last-minute field goal with a senior-laden team. How good will they be next year once all of those seniors graduate?

Yes, San Antonio is a large market, but this league is full of teams that barely move the needle in their large markets.

Agree

This seems incredibly over reactionary to a school having a good season being taken over several schools with much longer runs of success

The big market TX if possible moves seem to be the deal here, but man oh man while there are no mega schools out there in the Belt and CUSA there are stronger schools than this

Fanbase has to matter

The #1 thing to remember is that the Remaining 8 keep their tv revenue as is. That was a priority and it appears to be happening.

To accomplish this, ESPN must have provided a list of programs that would work in this formula.

UTSA is the local college in a top 50 market. They may not have major penetration, but it gets on tv sets there.

UTSA, UNT, and Rice also help to block the MWC from getting into Texas. Key point.

Finally some have reported that UTSA and UNT are showing a strong commitment to growing their athletic programs. That is something the committee finds out after interviewing the candidates - and that the public doesn't necessarily know.

The other thing is that the incumbents are going to take most of the tv money from the newcomers. The first season, most of it, probably half of it the second season, and some of it the third season.

So 14 teams X $7 million = $98 million + $30 million exit fees (Cincinnati, UCF, Houston)

Year 1 - Newcomers get $2 million
Year 2 - Newcomers get $3.5 million
Year 3 - Newcomers get $5 million
Year 4 - Newcomers get $7 million

Incumbent Share
Year 1 - $10.8 million + $3.75 million exit fees = $14.5 million
Year 2 - $9.6 million
Year 3 - $8.5 million


The entrance fees might be slightly different, and the exit fees might be deferred over a couple of years. The exit fees will almost certainly be more because the 3 schools will negotiate a deal to leave early.

The first 3 years after the newcomers are added, we will make somewhere in the neighborhood of $11 million per year, each year. as a worst case scenario; if we don't leave. We probably won't play a single AAC conference game by the time any of them are added.
(This post was last modified: 10-20-2021 01:49 PM by Stammers.)
10-20-2021 01:47 PM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #127
RE: The American is getting applications this week
Looking at UConn's football schedule this year. Just wanted to see how they were doing as an indy. (Bottom line - not too good.) But I was surprised to see UCF and Houston doing Home/Home games with them. Why? I know they were trying to negotiate some games in lieu of exit fees. Makes no sense to me as terrible as they are and their location, but maybe they were successful?
10-20-2021 03:42 PM
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