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Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
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olddawg Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
Sagarin ratings currently have us 5th ranked of the FCS teams (behind 3 Valley teams and Sammy). We were ranked 4th last week, but were leapfrogged by SHSU and UNI. Style points obviously matter for the computers-will they matter to the selection committee?

Massey ratings have us currently ranked 10th. They had us 11th last week.

I think an average of the two ratings is probably fair right now as far as seeding. But we have 4 relatively easy weeks to get our offense in gear. Defensively, I think we'll be able to hang with the best. Gonna need the offense to score TDs to get past the Semis though.
10-25-2021 10:37 AM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(10-25-2021 09:38 AM)Dukester Wrote:  
(10-24-2021 11:51 AM)2Buck Wrote:  Don't know if this is the new normal, but NDST is not a great team and totally beatable. They are lucking out with some of their wins. We picked a terrible year to regress.

I still haven't looked at the championship games we lost to them, should have won both. They are just one of those maddening teams that get more luck than anyone deserves. This move out of FCS can't happen quick enough for me, good riddance.

History tells me that bad teams that continue to win many times improve and become good/great teams.

Little surprised at us a #7 seed, but this bracket would be fine to me. NDSU #1 seed probably makes sense and the likely outcome if they win out.

- I don't like any bracket that has us going to play NDSU on the road.
- I don't mind playing at SHSU.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs...acketology
No way a 10-1 EWU would be ahead of a 10-1 JMU based on common opponent. JMU soundly beat Weber @ Weber, Weber just beat EWU @ EWU.

And for EWU to be #5, that means they would have to win their last 3 (Mt St, @ UCD, PRST). And if EWU beats UCD, giving UCD their 2nd Big Sky loss, UCD isn't going to be the #6 seed. In other words, its virtually impossible impossible that both EWU AND UCD would be top 6 seeds.

This guy must have been drunk when he put this together lol..
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2021 10:48 AM by BDKJMU.)
10-25-2021 10:41 AM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(10-25-2021 10:37 AM)olddawg Wrote:  Sagarin ratings currently have us 5th ranked of the FCS teams (behind 3 Valley teams and Sammy). We were ranked 4th last week, but were leapfrogged by SHSU and UNI. Style points obviously matter for the computers-will they matter to the selection committee?

Massey ratings have us currently ranked 10th. They had us 11th last week.

I think an average of the two ratings is probably fair right now as far as seeding. But we have 4 relatively easy weeks to get our offense in gear. Defensively, I think we'll be able to hang with the best. Gonna need the offense to score TDs to get past the Semis though.

Sagarin and Massey ratings generally irrelevant to the committee.

The NCAA SRS/SOS score matters, resume matters, conference title matters, and perhaps national polls to a lesser degree.

My guess is Big Sky and MVFC SOS will be strongest per ncaa ranking, and those two conf champs end up top seeds. SHSU obviously in the mix, and CAA champ likely a top 4 also.
10-25-2021 10:44 AM
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fishingduke12 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(10-25-2021 10:41 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(10-25-2021 09:38 AM)Dukester Wrote:  
(10-24-2021 11:51 AM)2Buck Wrote:  Don't know if this is the new normal, but NDST is not a great team and totally beatable. They are lucking out with some of their wins. We picked a terrible year to regress.

I still haven't looked at the championship games we lost to them, should have won both. They are just one of those maddening teams that get more luck than anyone deserves. This move out of FCS can't happen quick enough for me, good riddance.

History tells me that bad teams that continue to win many times improve and become good/great teams.

Little surprised at us a #7 seed, but this bracket would be fine to me. NDSU #1 seed probably makes sense and the likely outcome if they win out.

- I don't like any bracket that has us going to play NDSU on the road.
- I don't mind playing at SHSU.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs...acketology
No way a 10-1 EWU would be ahead of a 10-1 JMU based on common opponent. JMU soundly beat Weber @ Weber, Weber just beat EWU @ EWU.

Depends how much weight the committee puts on Ewu's FBS win against a crap UNLV. They also have a d2 win that will be thrown out
10-25-2021 10:46 AM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(10-25-2021 10:46 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  
(10-25-2021 10:41 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  
(10-25-2021 09:38 AM)Dukester Wrote:  
(10-24-2021 11:51 AM)2Buck Wrote:  Don't know if this is the new normal, but NDST is not a great team and totally beatable. They are lucking out with some of their wins. We picked a terrible year to regress.

I still haven't looked at the championship games we lost to them, should have won both. They are just one of those maddening teams that get more luck than anyone deserves. This move out of FCS can't happen quick enough for me, good riddance.

History tells me that bad teams that continue to win many times improve and become good/great teams.

Little surprised at us a #7 seed, but this bracket would be fine to me. NDSU #1 seed probably makes sense and the likely outcome if they win out.

- I don't like any bracket that has us going to play NDSU on the road.
- I don't mind playing at SHSU.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs...acketology
No way a 10-1 EWU would be ahead of a 10-1 JMU based on common opponent. JMU soundly beat Weber @ Weber, Weber just beat EWU @ EWU.

Depends how much weight the committee puts on Ewu's FBS win against a crap UNLV. They also have a d2 win that will be thrown out

It will automatically boost the EWU SRS score. FBS wins get a nice bonus regardless of who you play. However, I would think the judgement call would still to JMU given how close our only loss was, and given outcome of the common opponent. The committee spends time looking at game results "resume" for the seeds.
10-25-2021 10:55 AM
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Nerfherder95 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
I miss the Monday posts of breaking down all the teams, records, who's in and who's out of the playoffs. That was alot of nice work. Maybe it's still too early for that?
10-25-2021 11:10 AM
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Dukester Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
10-25-2021 11:58 AM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
Updated STATA and Coaches' Polls top 9 are the same.
1. SHSU
2. NDSU
3. SIU
4. VU
5. JMU
6. Mt St
7. EWU
8. SELA
9. UCD
10. SDSU
10/12: KSU

If the field were being seeded TODAY, I think the committee would have it the same as the polls except flip SHSU & NDSU, and flip JMU & Mt St. Also listed remaining games
1. NDSU (7-0/4-0): IN St, @ #13 SDSU, @ YSU, #22 S Dakota
2. SHSU (6-0/4-0) (only 10 games): @ Tarleton ST (4-3), Dixie St (0-7), EKU (5-2), @ ACU (4-3)
3. SIU (6-1/4-0) (P5 loss): @ #17 UNI, #20 Mo St, @ IN St, YSU
4. VU (6-1/4-0) (P5 loss): W&M, @ Elon, SBU, @ UD
5. Mt St 7-1/5-0 (G5 loss): @ #7 EWU, Idaho (2-5), @ #11 Montana
6. JMU (6-1/4-1)
7. EWU (7-1/3-1) (G5 win & Div II wins, lost to Weber St): #7 Mt St, @ #9 UCD, Portland St (3-4)
8. SELA (6-1/4-0) (G5 loss)
9. UCD: @ NAU (3-4), #7 EWU, #15/23 Sac St

If JMU wins out, I can't see them being any lower than #6 seed. I think SIU loses at least 1, Mt St loses at least 1, and a 10-1 JMU ends up a #4 seed. If NDSU loses 1 (likely SDSU) and they don't get blown out, I think they'd stay above JMU. No way does UCD leapfrog JMU even IF they win out. They lost by 10 to 1-6 ID St.
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2021 12:00 PM by BDKJMU.)
10-25-2021 11:59 AM
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Dukester Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(10-25-2021 11:59 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  Updated STATA and Coaches' Polls top 9 are the same.
1. SHSU
2. NDSU
3. SIU
4. VU
5. JMU
6. Mt St
7. EWU
8. SELA
9. UCD
10. SDSU
10/12: KSU

If the field were being seeded TODAY, I think the committee would have it the same as the polls except flip SHSU & NDSU, and flip JMU & Mt St. Also listed remaining games
1. NDSU (7-0/4-0): IN St, @ #13 SDSU, @ YSU, #22 S Dakota
2. SHSU (6-0/4-0) (only 10 games): @ Tarleton ST (4-3), Dixie St (0-7), EKU (5-2), @ ACU (4-3)
3. SIU (6-1/4-0) (P5 loss): @ #17 UNI, #20 Mo St, @ IN St, YSU
4. VU (6-1/4-0) (P5 loss): W&M, @ Elon, SBU, @ UD
5. Mt St 7-1/5-0 (G5 loss): @ #7 EWU, Idaho (2-5), @ #11 Montana
6. JMU (6-1/4-1)
7. EWU (7-1/3-1) (G5 win & Div II wins, lost to Weber St): #7 Mt St, @ #9 UCD, Portland St (3-4)
8. SELA (6-1/4-0) (G5 loss)
9. UCD: @ NAU (3-4), #7 EWU, #15/23 Sac St

If JMU wins out, I can't see them being any lower than #6 seed. I think SIU loses at least 1, Mt St loses at least 1, and a 10-1 JMU ends up a #4 seed. If NDSU loses 1 (likely SDSU) and they don't get blown out, I think they'd stay above JMU. No way does UCD leapfrog JMU even IF they win out. They lost by 10 to 1-6 ID St.

I agree - I think we are in the 4/5 slot to play at NDSU if they go undefeated.

We lose another game, and bye bye top 8 seed.
10-25-2021 12:40 PM
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olddawg Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(10-25-2021 10:44 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  
(10-25-2021 10:37 AM)olddawg Wrote:  Sagarin ratings currently have us 5th ranked of the FCS teams (behind 3 Valley teams and Sammy). We were ranked 4th last week, but were leapfrogged by SHSU and UNI. Style points obviously matter for the computers-will they matter to the selection committee?

Massey ratings have us currently ranked 10th. They had us 11th last week.

I think an average of the two ratings is probably fair right now as far as seeding. But we have 4 relatively easy weeks to get our offense in gear. Defensively, I think we'll be able to hang with the best. Gonna need the offense to score TDs to get past the Semis though.

Sagarin and Massey ratings generally irrelevant to the committee.

The NCAA SRS/SOS score matters, resume matters, conference title matters, and perhaps national polls to a lesser degree.


My guess is Big Sky and MVFC SOS will be strongest per ncaa ranking, and those two conf champs end up top seeds. SHSU obviously in the mix, and CAA champ likely a top 4 also.

I would argue that both polls, are probably more accurate at seasons end than most of what you suggested are primary. It would also be naive to think they were not looked at, even if the Committee says otherwise. Everyone looks for validation and support. And as much as I hate to admit it, the AGS people do a pretty good job on predicting seeds. But all the contenders for seeds have to contend with the built in biases of the members. Just the nature of the beast.
10-25-2021 12:53 PM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(10-25-2021 12:53 PM)olddawg Wrote:  
(10-25-2021 10:44 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  
(10-25-2021 10:37 AM)olddawg Wrote:  Sagarin ratings currently have us 5th ranked of the FCS teams (behind 3 Valley teams and Sammy). We were ranked 4th last week, but were leapfrogged by SHSU and UNI. Style points obviously matter for the computers-will they matter to the selection committee?

Massey ratings have us currently ranked 10th. They had us 11th last week.

I think an average of the two ratings is probably fair right now as far as seeding. But we have 4 relatively easy weeks to get our offense in gear. Defensively, I think we'll be able to hang with the best. Gonna need the offense to score TDs to get past the Semis though.

Sagarin and Massey ratings generally irrelevant to the committee.

The NCAA SRS/SOS score matters, resume matters, conference title matters, and perhaps national polls to a lesser degree.


My guess is Big Sky and MVFC SOS will be strongest per ncaa ranking, and those two conf champs end up top seeds. SHSU obviously in the mix, and CAA champ likely a top 4 also.

I would argue that both polls, are probably more accurate at seasons end than most of what you suggested are primary. It would also be naive to think they were not looked at, even if the Committee says otherwise. Everyone looks for validation and support. And as much as I hate to admit it, the AGS people do a pretty good job on predicting seeds. But all the contenders for seeds have to contend with the built in biases of the members. Just the nature of the beast.

Committee maintains their own internal regional rankings that subcomittee members maintain. That was somewhat the basis (along with a prelim vote), of the sneak peek they used to publish.

The internal ranking likely somewhat mirror the national polls. You can argue for shifting things a slot or two for certain teams, but most of this makes sense based on record/results. Even AGS is close to the other polls.

When i have seen a significant shift in seeding from what polls would suggest, most often it aligns with what the SRS scores show, or is justified by who took the conference title. It would be unusual for the conference champ to be seeded below anyone else in their conference (in a full/normal season). The SRS is only published after the bracket is released.
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2021 01:13 PM by JMURocks.)
10-25-2021 12:59 PM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(10-25-2021 11:59 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  If the field were being seeded TODAY, I think the committee would have it the same as the polls except flip SHSU & NDSU, and flip JMU & Mt St. Also listed remaining games
1. NDSU (7-0/4-0): IN St, @ #13 SDSU, @ YSU, #22 S Dakota
2. SHSU (6-0/4-0) (only 10 games): @ Tarleton ST (4-3), Dixie St (0-7), EKU (5-2), @ ACU (4-3)
3. SIU (6-1/4-0) (P5 loss): @ #17 UNI, #20 Mo St, @ IN St, YSU
4. VU (6-1/4-0) (P5 loss): W&M, @ Elon, SBU, @ UD
5. Mt St 7-1/5-0 (G5 loss): @ #7 EWU, Idaho (2-5), @ #11 Montana
6. JMU (6-1/4-1)
7. EWU (7-1/3-1) (G5 win & Div II wins, lost to Weber St): #7 Mt St, @ #9 UCD, Portland St (3-4)
8. SELA (6-1/4-0) (G5 loss)
9. UCD: @ NAU (3-4), #7 EWU, #15/23 Sac St

If JMU wins out, I can't see them being any lower than #6 seed. I think SIU loses at least 1, Mt St loses at least 1, and a 10-1 JMU ends up a #4 seed. If NDSU loses 1 (likely SDSU) and they don't get blown out, I think they'd stay above JMU. No way does UCD leapfrog JMU even IF they win out. They lost by 10 to 1-6 ID St.
With SIU and VU losing, make that if the field were being seeded tonight think JMU would be #4…
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2021 08:12 PM by BDKJMU.)
10-30-2021 08:08 PM
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BDKJMU Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
CAA standings.
1. JMU 7-1/5-1
2. W&M 6-2/4-1 (left @ UD, JMU, RU)
— VU 6-2/4-1 (left @ Elon, SBU @ UD)
4.Elon 4-4/3-2 (left VU, @ TU, URI)
— TU 4-4/3-2 (left @ RU, Elon, @ JMU)
6. URI 5-3/3-3 (left @ UMass, UNH, @ Elon)
-- Maine 4-4/3-3 (SBU, @ UMass, @ UNH)
8. UD 4-4/2-3 (W&M, @ UR, VU)
— SBU 3-5/2-3
-- UNH 3-5/2-3
11. RU 3-5/1-4
12. Albany 0-8/0-6

7-4 probably doesn’t get in from the CAA this season unless was 6-2 CAA. TU and Elon are the only possibilities at that, but thats not happening. Looks like only 3 from the CAA this season: JMU, VU, and good chance W&M. URI now a long shot.

JMU @ W&M looms YUGE..
10-31-2021 08:42 PM
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DirtyDukes Offline
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RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
Are we really ranked #1 over nova?
11-01-2021 08:06 AM
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JMad03 Offline
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RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(10-25-2021 11:58 AM)Dukester Wrote:  https://csnbbs.com/thread-933259.html


Saxkow is the man!

Truth.
11-01-2021 08:09 AM
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Dukester Offline
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RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
Things are aligning for the top 3 to be SHSU, NDSU, and JMU.

I don't see SHSU losing again. I think even with injuries and improved Tribe we win out. NDSU has the most difficult schedule, but I think they probably win out.

So if all three teams win out, what would be the seeding?

I would put them:

NDSU #1
SHSU #2
JMU #3

I'd like that set up.

The polls all have SHSU a solid #1, and NDSU #2 followed by us. So would SHSU get the top seed? Based on their SOS I think they should be second.

Also, for what it's worth you could make an argument for the #3 seed to come from the MVC ahead of us.

NDSU should be the #1 seed in my opinion, and "I think" that would case if it happened.
11-01-2021 10:20 AM
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Deez Nuts Offline
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RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
would be fine with going to Sammy and getting that redemption.
11-01-2021 10:51 AM
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BDKJMU Offline
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RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
11-01-2021 11:57 AM
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JMURocks Offline
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RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(11-01-2021 11:57 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  FWIW JMU at #3 both polls:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...aches-poll

Prolly the MVC crowd over at AGS slotted us lower.

3/4 seed is good with me if we can stay out of the fargo tin can.
11-01-2021 12:34 PM
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Dukester Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Fall 2021 Football Bracketology (Playoff Discussion)
(11-01-2021 12:34 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  
(11-01-2021 11:57 AM)BDKJMU Wrote:  FWIW JMU at #3 both polls:
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/f...aches-poll

Prolly the MVC crowd over at AGS slotted us lower.

3/4 seed is good with me if we can stay out of the Fargo tin can.

As I said, I understand that argument, although I think our history and league will get us the 3 seed over a 2 loss MVC team.
11-01-2021 02:32 PM
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