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Poll: Which of these scenarios would be more likely, in your view?
AAC would add 6 full members (e.g., App St., Buffalo, Louisiana, LTU, Marshall and UAB)
AAC would add 4 full members, 1 FB member, and 1 non-FB (BB/olympic sports member.
The AAC would add 2 full members, 2 FB members (e.g., App. St. & Army/Coastal), & 2 non-FB members (e.g., St. Louis, & Loyola-Chicago)
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McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possible."
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Milwaukee Offline
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McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possible."
.

After it became clear that none of the MWC schools were going to join the AAC, Brett McMurphy wrote this story:

Mountain West Staves Off AAC, Keeps Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force & Colorado State In Conference

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/moun...rado-state

ACTIONNETWORK.COM

BRETT MCMURPHY - OCTOBER 1, 2022

"After weeks of discussions between the Mountain West’s top four schools and the American, the Mountain West managed to stave off the AAC and stay intact.

AAC commish Mike Aresco said his league “has not offered membership to any institution. Our process for considering potential members remains deliberate, strategic & focused on the continued proven success of our conference.”

After the exits of Cincinnati, UCF and Houston, the AAC will be down to eight members. Among its only options would be from Conference USA or the Sun Belt.

At the top of the list is UAB and, perhaps, Charlotte, with several other schools from both leagues in play once the AAC decides which path to proceed."

“We’re still determining who, and how many is still up in the air,” an AAC source said. “Anything from two to six schools seems possible.”

.

This was the first time that anyone affiliated with the AAC made a statement suggesting that the conference might add as many as six schools.

.

Thus, it would be of interest to discuss the total number of AAC FB and BB teams there will be if the AAC were to add six schools.

There are three possible scenarios that could involve adding six schools:

1) The AAC could add 6 full members increasing the number of FB and BB teams from 8 to 14.

2) The AAC could add 4 full members , 1 FB-only member, and 1 non-FB member.

3) The AAC could add 2 full members, 2 FB-only members, and 2 non-FB members.

.

The floor is open for discussion.

.
(This post was last modified: 10-06-2021 10:37 AM by Milwaukee.)
10-06-2021 04:38 AM
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Milwaukee Offline
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
Here is one possible six full member scenario:


AAC East 1.1...............AAC East 2.0

Cincinnati*^+.............Appalachian State*
UCF*^.......................Marshall*^
UConn^+...................Buffalo*^+
Temple^....................Temple^
ECU...........................ECU
USF...........................USF
................................UAB^

AAC West 1.1..............AAC West 2.0

Memphis*^+..............Memphis*^+
SMU*^+....................SMU*^+
Navy*/Wichita St^+....Navy*/Wichita St.^+
Houston*^+...............Louisiana*^
Tulane.......................Tulane
Tulsa^.......................Tulsa^
.................................Louisiana Tech^


*Potential top-25 quality FB program
^Potential CBI/NIT quality BB program
+Potential NCAA quality BB program

Potential FB bowl-quality programs and programs that have played in a bowl game between 2018 and 2020 are underlined

NOTE:

--Tulsa's FB team was ranked #24 in the final 2020 CFP poll.

--App State's BB team played in the 2020 NCAA tournament.
--Temple's MBB team played in the 2019 NCAA tournament.

.

Currently, the AAC has 11 potential bowl-quality FB programs and 8 potential post-season tournament-quality BB programs.

After adding App St., Buffalo, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, and UAB, the AAC would have 14 potential bowl-quality FB programs and 10 potential post-season tournament quality BB programs.

If any of those schools would decline an invitation to join the American, there are others waiting in the wings, such as WKU, which has averaged 7.68 FB wins/yr over the past 8 seasons and sent BB teams to the 2018 NIT semifinals and to the 2021 NIT quarterfinals.

The AAC would also have 7 potential top-25-quality football programs. It currently has only 5 (Memphis, Navy, UC, UCF, UH).

.

Only twice in eight seasons has the AAC had more than two FB teams in the final AP top 25 (in 2017 and 2019). It could become the norm if the AAC were to add four potential top 25 quality FB programs.
(This post was last modified: 10-06-2021 07:32 AM by Milwaukee.)
10-06-2021 04:41 AM
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All4One Online
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
(10-06-2021 04:38 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

After it became clear that none of the MWC schools were going to join the AAC, Brett McMurphy wrote this story:

Mountain West Staves Off AAC, Keeps Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force & Colorado State In Conference

ACTIONNETWORK.COM

BRETT MCMURPHY - OCTOBER 1, 2022

"After weeks of discussions between the Mountain West’s top four schools and the American, the Mountain West managed to stave off the AAC and stay intact.

AAC commish Mike Aresco said his league “has not offered membership to any institution. Our process for considering potential members remains deliberate, strategic & focused on the continued proven success of our conference.”

After the exits of Cincinnati, UCF and Houston, the AAC will be down to eight members. Among its only options would be from Conference USA or the Sun Belt.

At the top of the list is UAB and, perhaps, Charlotte, with several other schools from both leagues in play once the AAC decides which path to proceed."

“We’re still determining who, and how many is still up in the air,” an AAC source said. “Anything from two to six schools seems possible.”

.

This was the first time that anyone affiliated with the AAC made a statement suggesting that the conference might add as many as six schools.

.

Thus, it would be of interest to discuss the total number of AAC FB and BB teams there will be if the AAC were to add six schools.

There are three possible scenarios that could involve adding six schools:

1) The AAC could add 6 full members increasing the number of FB and BB teams from 8 to 14.

2) The AAC could add 4 full members , 1 FB-only member, and 1 non-FB member.

3) The AAC could add 2 full members, 2 FB-only members, and 2 non-FB members.

.

The floor is open for discussion.

.

Anything is possible, but is it logical?

The AAC is going to seek schools that are good at both football and basketball. Memphis is probably not voting for you if your basketball program is going to hurt the conference, and they probably wouldn't be the only one.

That eliminates every Sun Belt school other than Georgia State, who has that league's only NCAA Tournament win in the last 8 years, but this s favorable for UAB, of course, and Marshall both who have beaten Top 25 -ranked teams in the NCAA Tournament in the last 6 years.

The AAC is going to look for someone, who could reasonably raise their budget up to or one that is already on par with AAC schools in the $50-60 Million range.

This one could potentially eliminate Louisiana Tech with an operating budget of $24 Million, which is the lowest in Conference USA. Louisiana state government isn't doing them any favors like they do for LSU.

Rice, Old Dominion, Liberty, Buffalo, and James Madison check the budget box with operating budgets all north of $45 Million although Rice and Liberty's are very likely much more. Private schools try to keep their wealth hidden from public eyes.

If high level academics is a criteria, Rice checks that box.

Anything is possible. 14 seems illogical for a league like the AAC.

According to the AAC source quoted there it is clear that the AAC is looking to add at least two, so UAB will not be the only one.

.
10-06-2021 04:51 AM
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NoQuarterBrigade Offline
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
No telling who they’ll invite. We all have these theories, but the most logical idea that’s been discussed IMO is the addition of at least four schools that have the sports needed to backfill what we’ve lost. Which four schools is anybody’s guess. And that is just the minimum, they may go for six schools. I doubt it will be just two schools though. We need too much at this point to stop there.
10-06-2021 05:28 AM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possible."
Why would the AAC want 3 schools in Louisiana?
10-06-2021 07:58 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
(10-06-2021 07:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Why would the AAC want 3 schools in Louisiana?

LaTech is closer to (Dallas) SMU and Memphis than (NOLA) Tulane.

UL would be a good regional rival for Tulane.

Both schools are really good at basketball/football/baseball.
(This post was last modified: 10-06-2021 08:12 AM by LaTex14.)
10-06-2021 08:06 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possible."
I also just don’t see a situation where App State and Coastal go FB only. They already see themselves as in a more dominant football conference. Plus I doubt the Sunbelt would let them stay in Olympic sports.

I think it’s 4 or 6 schools with quality basketball and football programs.
10-06-2021 08:10 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
(10-06-2021 08:06 AM)LaTex14 Wrote:  
(10-06-2021 07:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Why would the AAC want 3 schools in Louisiana?

LaTech is closer to SMU and Memphis than Tulane.

UL would be a good regional rival for Tulane.

Both schools are really good at basketball/football/baseball.

Aside from any talk of markets or institutional fit La Tech has to double their budget to get within spitting distance of the bottom of the AAC currently. That's not reasonable.
10-06-2021 08:12 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
(10-06-2021 08:10 AM)LaTex14 Wrote:  I also just don’t see a situation where App State and Coastal go FB only. They already see themselves as in a more dominant football conference. Plus I doubt the Sunbelt would let them stay in Olympic sports.

I think it’s 4 or 6 schools with quality basketball and football programs.

No, that's an NCAA rule. If you have a football team in a particular division, then your other sports cannot participate in another conference that also sponsors football in that same division.
10-06-2021 08:14 AM
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LaTex14 Offline
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
(10-06-2021 08:12 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(10-06-2021 08:06 AM)LaTex14 Wrote:  
(10-06-2021 07:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Why would the AAC want 3 schools in Louisiana?

LaTech is closer to SMU and Memphis than Tulane.

UL would be a good regional rival for Tulane.

Both schools are really good at basketball/football/baseball.

Aside from any talk of markets or institutional fit La Tech has to double their budget to get within spitting distance of the bottom of the AAC currently. That's not reasonable.

Oh yeah I agree. It’s bad. Worst in FBS almost.

Maybe there’s someone more qualified to talk about it on here.
But I know LaTech doesn’t have any athletic student fees. Also has the lowest % of institutional support.

Quote:Percent of Budget Subsidized in 2019

La Tech- 43.92%
So Miss- 44.85%
Marshall- 47.78%
FAU - 57.03%
Louisiana- 57.22%
App St- 57.97%
Ga St- 60.39%
UTSA- 60.87%
Old Dominion- 61.3%
UAB- 63.32%
Charlotte- 68%
North Texas 68.95%

I think there is room to grow if LaTech got a fee and admin put money up.
10-06-2021 08:18 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possible."
Is it possible that some of the SBC and CUSA schools simply can't afford to pay the fees to move? Seems like LA Tech could be one since they've got one of the smallest budgets in FBS.
(This post was last modified: 10-06-2021 08:20 AM by b2b.)
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
(10-06-2021 08:20 AM)b2b Wrote:  Is it possible that some of the SBC and CUSA schools simply can't afford to move? Seems like LA Tech could be one since they've got one of the smallest budgets in FBS.

- I know there is a rumor on the C-USA board that UTSA can’t afford the move.
- I read on Ragin Pagin that Louisiana has a lot of athletic debt right now and doesn’t have flexibility. I think UL is happy in the SBC anyway.
- UNT’s athletic budget is already 70% subsidized. So I think you could see some hesitation there.
- LaTech’s athletic budget is very small.
- Rice would need a new football and basketball stadium most likely. So I read that their admin was hesitant.

Im not an expert on these things at all. But it seems like less Athletic debt would give you more flexibility and smaller amounts of current institutional support. Also what condition your current BB/FB/BSB facilities are in.
(This post was last modified: 10-06-2021 08:27 AM by LaTex14.)
10-06-2021 08:23 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
(10-06-2021 08:20 AM)b2b Wrote:  Is it possible that some of the SBC and CUSA schools simply can't afford to pay the fees to move? Seems like LA Tech could be one since they've got one of the smallest budgets in FBS.

Correct. Budget shortfalls are going to be an issue for a lot of schools the AAC may be considering. As small as La Tech's is, Louisiana-Monroe's is the smallest in FBS with a $15 Million budget.
10-06-2021 08:25 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possible."
Instead of the AAC trying to kill the MWC, they should have been seeking a merger with them. Lets face it, the AAC don't have a good bunch to choose from if you're looking for a program that adds immediate value to the conference.
10-06-2021 08:36 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
(10-06-2021 08:18 AM)LaTex14 Wrote:  
(10-06-2021 08:12 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(10-06-2021 08:06 AM)LaTex14 Wrote:  
(10-06-2021 07:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  Why would the AAC want 3 schools in Louisiana?

LaTech is closer to SMU and Memphis than Tulane.

UL would be a good regional rival for Tulane.

Both schools are really good at basketball/football/baseball.

Aside from any talk of markets or institutional fit La Tech has to double their budget to get within spitting distance of the bottom of the AAC currently. That's not reasonable.

Oh yeah I agree. It’s bad. Worst in FBS almost.

Maybe there’s someone more qualified to talk about it on here.
But I know LaTech doesn’t have any athletic student fees. Also has the lowest % of institutional support.

Quote:Percent of Budget Subsidized in 2019

La Tech- 43.92%
So Miss- 44.85%
Marshall- 47.78%
FAU - 57.03%
Louisiana- 57.22%
App St- 57.97%
Ga St- 60.39%
UTSA- 60.87%
Old Dominion- 61.3%
UAB- 63.32%
Charlotte- 68%
North Texas 68.95%

I think there is room to grow if LaTech got a fee and admin put money up.

I think I've heard they have no student fees, and if you look at the knight commission website none shows up. So in theory there is an avenue to raise their budget substantially quickly, but do they want to or are they even able to? It's hard for me to believe you could even exist as an FBS program without having 1, so there's gotta be reasons I don't know about that they don't have one.

http://cafidatabase.knightcommission.org...he_money-1
10-06-2021 08:42 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
AAC could go to 16 teams from what I'm hearing. The plan is to have enough teams that should Big 12 change its plan for future expansion it would not cause a major disruption in the composition of league members. And to separate itself from the other conferences and maintain its P6 status. Of course, this is currently bad news for SMU and Memphis.


The schools on AAC list:

Top 4
UAB
CLT
UTSA
FAU

Next Group
Up to four from:
Liberty
App St
C Car
Louisiana
Rice
Marshall
FIU

Liberty, and the Virginia market, have shown great appeal to AAC. There is concern about Marshall's small market vs on fields success. The Sunbelt's success would strengthen AAC's claim as "P6" conference but small markets are a concern. Rice brings the city of Houston but there is concern about Rice's commitment to AAC expectations. If Rice can convince AAC commitment issues, they should take UTSA place in Top 4 teams. AAC wants to solidify and expand its base in Texas. FIU is another team in south Florida that appeals to AAC as they want to expand in Florida. AAC would like a travel partner for FAU but FIU needs to make the financial commitment to compete at AAC level.

At the end of the day, ESPN will most likely make the decision of expansion candidates. If they are willing to gamble on the small market SBC schools and the future performance of a 16 league, then AAC will surpass MWC. And most likely eliminate one of CUSA and SBC.
10-06-2021 08:47 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
The AAC should announce 2 all sports replacements until the B-12 realignment is finalized and split into two - 5 team divisions for FB for the Championship football game. By waiting CSU and AF might change their mind if Boise leaves for the B-12. The AAC can continue its expansion back to 12 for FB and BB after the situation becomes clearer down the road in a couple of years. The Sunbelt and CUSA schools aren't going any where in the mean time. 07-coffee3
10-06-2021 09:34 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possible."
My opinion is 10

UAB and

UTSA or Rice if Navy wants another Texas school and if we want to keep the option of MWC in future.

Or

Marshall or App State if we want to help shore up football right now.
10-06-2021 09:38 AM
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
(10-06-2021 09:34 AM)panite Wrote:  The AAC should announce 2 all sports replacements until the B-12 realignment is finalized and split into two - 5 team divisions for FB for the Championship football game. By waiting CSU and AF might change their mind if Boise leaves for the B-12. The AAC can continue its expansion back to 12 for FB and BB after the situation becomes clearer down the road in a couple of years. The Sunbelt and CUSA schools aren't going any where in the mean time. 07-coffee3

Yes that’s more likely

EAST
Temple,ECU,USF,UAB, Tulane
WEST
Memphis,Tulsa,SMU,Navy/ WSU,( UTSA or Rice)

Or
EAST
Temple,ECU,USF,UAB, (Marshall or App St)
WEST
Tulane,Tulsa,SMU,Memphis, Navy/WSU
10-06-2021 09:41 AM
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CoastalJuan Offline
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RE: McMurphy (Oct. 1): "Anything from two to six more (AAC) schools seems possibl...
Jesus Christ Jed.

Mods, can we merge all of Jed's new threads into one of the many existing realignment threads on here?
10-06-2021 09:43 AM
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