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epasnoopy Online
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Toungue Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
Since everyone likes to dog the MAC. MAC West is rated higher than AAC and every other G5 division except for MWC- Mountain division.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Quote:10 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 68.51
11 MAC-WEST (A) = 67.40
12 MWC-WEST (A) = 67.19
13 AAC (A) = 66.76
14 SUN BELT-EAST (A) = 66.26
15 I-A IND. (A) = 62.68
16 CONF USA-EAST (A) = 61.20
17 MAC-EAST (A) = 60.15
18 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 58.79
19 CONF USA-WEST (A) = 58.28
20 SUN BELT-WEST (A) = 57.20
10-03-2021 12:08 PM
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Max Power Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
After a bad start the MAC has quietly put together a decent noncon. Bunch of G5 wins and BG probably beats Minny 1 out of 100 tries lol
10-03-2021 12:20 PM
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StevenNIU Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
This is very interesting. I always assumed that a move to Conference USA would be a good thing for NIU. I just found an article from December of 2020 that said the MAC gets $10 million per year for football whereas the payout for football in Conference USA went from $14 million to $2 million.
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2021 12:39 PM by StevenNIU.)
10-03-2021 12:39 PM
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epasnoopy Online
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
CUSA is easily the worst G5. Sun Belt has passed them by. I'm surprised Marshall hasn't bolted yet.
10-03-2021 12:59 PM
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
Good stuff. This stuff starts to matter more to me as we move toward a playoff expansion and G5 conference strength will determine which champ goes to the playoff.
10-03-2021 01:07 PM
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Max Power Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
CUSA is a bad idea. I still think the AAC would be worth it for NIU even after losing their top teams. Easier to sell tickets for Memphis, SMU, Tulane than MAC Michigan and Ohio teams. No more weekday games. Would be ideal to take Toledo with us. Unfortunately our program has lost luster the last few years.
10-03-2021 01:14 PM
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epasnoopy Online
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
Memphis is also trying to leave the AAC. That conference is too unstable, long travel with no natural rivalries, and their TV deal is about to take a huge hit.
10-03-2021 01:35 PM
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
Memphis, WKU, Marshall and MTSU come aboard. Ohio, Miami, Ball State and NIU in that division. Rest of the MAC in the other. Play 7 division foes. 2 crossovers. 3 OOC. Most MAC teams will have a money give game to an FCS. And a G5 or 2 P5 money grab games.
10-03-2021 01:39 PM
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epasnoopy Online
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
I'd be up for adding those four but I doubt any of them want to pay exit fees to leave their current conferences unless it's for Big 12.
10-03-2021 01:45 PM
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NorthCoast Away
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
(10-03-2021 01:14 PM)Max Power Wrote:  CUSA is a bad idea. I still think the AAC would be worth it for NIU even after losing their top teams. Easier to sell tickets for Memphis, SMU, Tulane than MAC Michigan and Ohio teams. No more weekday games. Would be ideal to take Toledo with us. Unfortunately our program has lost luster the last few years.

(09-04-2021 01:37 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(09-03-2021 11:38 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  Let’s see…

- USF
- Temple
- ECU
- Memphis
- Tulsa
- SMU
- Tulane
- Navy (football-only)/Wichita State

Historically, this group of schools have added from schools currently in CUSA; however, it looks like most schools left in CUSA are not really a good fit anymore with the possible exception of Rice to help “recapture” the lost Houston market.

What would make the most sense, to me, would be to add: NIU, Toledo, UBuffalo, and Rice to get back to a 12-team league.

Although, the prospect of being in an AAC East with Toledo, UBuffalo, Temple, USF, and ECU is not very appealing, to me. I would prefer a 4-pod system (in football) where you would play the two teams in your pod every year and 2 of the other 3 pods every year for a total of 8 conference games every season and playing each pod twice over a three year span.

AAC Football Pods
Pod A - NIU, Toledo, UBuffalo
Pod B - USF, Temple, ECU
Pod C - Memphis, Tulsa, Tulane
Pod D - SMU, Rice, Navy (Navy wants to play SMU every year, is my understanding)

In a scenario where it’s UAB instead of Rice, this is how I would see the pods shaking out.

AAC Football Pods
Pod A - NIU, Toledo, UBuffalo
Pod B - USF, Temple, ECU
Pod C - Memphis, UAB, Tulane
Pod D - SMU, Tulsa, Navy
10-03-2021 01:54 PM
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NorthCoast Away
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
(10-03-2021 01:54 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(09-04-2021 01:37 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(09-03-2021 11:38 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  AAC Football Pods
Pod A - NIU, Toledo, UBuffalo
Pod B - USF, Temple, ECU
Pod C - Memphis, Tulsa, Tulane
Pod D - SMU, Rice, Navy (Navy wants to play SMU every year, is my understanding)

In a scenario where it’s UAB instead of Rice, this is how I would see the pods shaking out.

AAC Football Pods
Pod A - NIU, Toledo, UBuffalo
Pod B - USF, Temple, ECU
Pod C - Memphis, UAB, Tulane
Pod D - SMU, Tulsa, Navy

Would this conference schedule be preferable to the current situation? (Home games in BOLD)

NIU’s 3-year Conference schedules under this (UAB) scenario.

YEAR 1
vs Toledo
at UBuffalo
vs USF
at Temple
vs ECU
at Memphis
vs UAB
at Tulane

YEAR 2
at Toledo
vs UBuffalo
at USF
vs Temple
at ECU
vs SMU
at Tulsa
vs Navy

YEAR 3
vs Toledo
at UBuffalo
vs Memphis
at UAB
vs Tulane
at SMU
vs Tulsa
at Navy
10-03-2021 02:49 PM
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HUSKIEFOOTBALLFAN Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
(10-03-2021 02:49 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(10-03-2021 01:54 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(09-04-2021 01:37 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(09-03-2021 11:38 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  AAC Football Pods
Pod A - NIU, Toledo, UBuffalo
Pod B - USF, Temple, ECU
Pod C - Memphis, Tulsa, Tulane
Pod D - SMU, Rice, Navy (Navy wants to play SMU every year, is my understanding)

In a scenario where it’s UAB instead of Rice, this is how I would see the pods shaking out.

AAC Football Pods
Pod A - NIU, Toledo, UBuffalo
Pod B - USF, Temple, ECU
Pod C - Memphis, UAB, Tulane
Pod D - SMU, Tulsa, Navy

Would this conference schedule be preferable to the current situation? (Home games in BOLD)

NIU’s 3-year Conference schedules under this (UAB) scenario.

YEAR 1
vs Toledo
at UBuffalo
vs USF
at Temple
vs ECU
at Memphis
vs UAB
at Tulane

YEAR 2
at Toledo
vs UBuffalo
at USF
vs Temple
at ECU
vs SMU
at Tulsa
vs Navy

YEAR 3
vs Toledo
at UBuffalo
vs Memphis
at UAB
vs Tulane
at SMU
vs Tulsa
at Navy

I think this certainly would help from a scheduling perspective. The biggest gain is the end of weeknight MACtion games. I truly believe MACtion is what killed attendance.
10-03-2021 02:55 PM
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
The issue is the MAC east is part of the conference. It's easy to take the top 5 teams and say we're better. WMU is boosting the conference ratings.

NIU is #95
EMU 103
Ball st 83
Toledo 61
CMU 123
WMU 38


(10-03-2021 12:08 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  Since everyone likes to dog the MAC. MAC West is rated higher than AAC and every other G5 division except for MWC- Mountain division.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Quote:10 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 68.51
11 MAC-WEST (A) = 67.40
12 MWC-WEST (A) = 67.19
13 AAC (A) = 66.76
14 SUN BELT-EAST (A) = 66.26
15 I-A IND. (A) = 62.68
16 CONF USA-EAST (A) = 61.20
17 MAC-EAST (A) = 60.15
18 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 58.79
19 CONF USA-WEST (A) = 58.28
20 SUN BELT-WEST (A) = 57.20
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2021 02:56 PM by numbersdontlie.)
10-03-2021 02:55 PM
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epasnoopy Online
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
(10-03-2021 02:55 PM)numbersdontlie Wrote:  The issue is the MAC east is part of the conference. It's easy to take the top 5 teams and say we're better. WMU is boosting the conference ratings.

NIU is #95
EMU 103
Ball st 83
Toledo 61
CMU 123
WMU 38

AAC is currently below the MAC West with Cincy, UCF, and Houston. Imagine how far it drops without those three.
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2021 02:59 PM by epasnoopy.)
10-03-2021 02:59 PM
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
All of the above looks great, and it's fun to play "what if" with adding members and creating pods, as well as the enjoying the Sagarin ratings.

BUT ... when the feet make contact with the ground again, and reality sets in, NIU has some things to deal with before those things make real sense.

HuskieFootballFan hit reality with one simple statement: "I truly believe MACtion is what killed attendance." That's the reality NIU has to deal with, no matter what. It's not going away any time soon (contract ends at end of 2026; worry about an extension with weekday terms).

A few years ago I suggested NIU make the four Saturday games into high-interest events, something really special, and let the two weekday night games be take-what-you-can-get. With the late times and weather, that's all they'll ever be. Get 22k per game for the 4 Saturdays, and NIU only needs 12k from two weekdays to hit the magic 100k attendance number (there has to be some kind of measuring stick.) There is so much that can be done locally without major cost.

Keep providing home field advantage. NorthCoast and I don't often agree, but he makes a good point: defend HS and win those home games consistently. That's 6 wins = bowl eligibility right there. Some trash the minor bowls, but that's where your brand gets out there beyond DeKalb. And 4 conference wins is on the road to the MACC.

Houston, UCF and Cincinnati did not get to the Big12 because of the AAC. They got there because they used the AAC to build their own success. They also did not get there because of Sagarin ratings. MACtion is a PR excuse to make us feel better for stuffing four games where nobody wants to go. That's where NIU needs to find work-arounds.

It's all tied together. Wrap the package consistently and then you get noticed.

Off-topic but what the hell.
10-03-2021 04:24 PM
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
(10-03-2021 02:59 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  
(10-03-2021 02:55 PM)numbersdontlie Wrote:  The issue is the MAC east is part of the conference. It's easy to take the top 5 teams and say we're better. WMU is boosting the conference ratings.

NIU is #95
EMU 103
Ball st 83
Toledo 61
CMU 123
WMU 38

AAC is currently below the MAC West with Cincy, UCF, and Houston. Imagine how far it drops without those three.

If that's the case, please please please move to the AAC.
10-03-2021 05:26 PM
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
I wonder if the NIU Administration has reached out to the AAC. It does seem that we reached out to the BIG 12 but were never really considered. That is not a surprise based on our athletic budget and the state of our facilities. The AAC might be a good fit if we move with a few of our MAC friends like Toledo, Buffalo or WMU. Otherwise, the AAC is mostly a southern league.

I did find this following report on conference realignment fascinating. It is very data driven and gives a good picture on how decision makers look at conference expansion. NIU is mentioned on a few slides. Enjoy.

http://books.altimorecollins.com/sicem365/
10-03-2021 08:07 PM
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Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
If the MAC will be gracious enough to keep us, that’s where we will need to stay for the foreseeable future. I don’t see us attractive to ANY conference with the situation we are in - abysmal attendance and donations, stadium in need of major upgrades/renovation, administration that alienates its fan base, not a great record due to rebuilding, etc. Our 10K attendance will not make any conference drool. We are where we should be.
10-03-2021 08:23 PM
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dc1 Offline
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
NIU is a better fit in so many ways to become a basketball school. We are pretending to be a major college football program. Get4-5k at basketball games and we could become a decent mid-major program. Most importantly less money which NIU has none to elevate a basketball program
10-03-2021 08:47 PM
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RE: Sagarin Ratings for G5 Conferences
(10-03-2021 08:23 PM)Dog Fan Wrote:  If the MAC will be gracious enough to keep us, that’s where we will need to stay for the foreseeable future. I don’t see us attractive to ANY conference with the situation we are in - abysmal attendance and donations, stadium in need of major upgrades/renovation, administration that alienates its fan base, not a great record due to rebuilding, etc. Our 10K attendance will not make any conference drool. We are where we should be.

Top 3 arena in the league... Make it happen. Just sayin 4k isnt easy with snow and cold in a city with the alumni population at most 20 mins away. Being in Dekalb with a Chicago alum base in the winter isnt a cake walk to average in the 4k range. 2,500 legit and no more 700 people crowds needs to happen first and foremost. Winning will achieve that.
10-03-2021 08:58 PM
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