(10-12-2021 08:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (10-11-2021 06:54 PM)bullet Wrote: https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2...ly-report/
Not sure if this got posted elsewhere:
"...Ralph D. Russo of the Associated Press reported there is more clarity around what members of the CFP’s management committee and other stakeholders are thinking after the management committee’s meeting in Illinois last week.
Those members and stakeholders spoke to Russo on condition of anonymity, but one source told him that “I’m confident we can” get to the original 12-team plan unveiled in June.
But Russo uncovered another reason why a 12-team playoff appears more likely than another plan. It has to do, of course, with TV money and the CFP’s current contract. Per Russo:
And then there is this: If the playoff expands to eight before the current contract with ESPN expires after the 2025 season, the network would be under no obligation to pay more for the new format than it already is for the current one. And why wait for a potentially huge windfall?
The reason? ESPN pays for a seven-game package already. That package includes the three ‘playoff’ games and the other four New Year’s Six games. So, an expansion to an eight-game playoff would fit into the current structure, which is great — unless you’re trying to make more money. And one has to assume the CFP would be seeking to make more money than the $600 million per year that ESPN pays now...."
IMO, the B1G is the key. Once they get over their bruised feelings that OU and TX knocked on the SEC's door and not their door, they will see the advantage of a 12-team playoff and then we will be good to go on that.
I'll repeat the optimism that I've had elsewhere: I think that this is going to get done by the end of the year and, if anything, we may see the new CFP start in 2023.
We've seen estimates that CFP expansion could more than triple the current playoff revenue. This means moving from around $600 million per year (the current CFP TV contract plus all of the individual contract bowl agreements) to $1.8 billion per year with just a conservative estimate. To put that into perspective, an extra $1.2 billion per year (I'm just talking about the difference compared to the current contract by itself and not even the total) would be 50% more than the NCAA Tournament TV contract! The new CFP would be the equivalent of getting an extra 1.5 years of NCAA Tournament money every freaking year and split amongst a much smaller group of schools!
If the parties can agree to start the expanded CFP in 2024 in lieu of the last 2 years of the current contract, that's a delta of $2.4 billion extra dollars on the low end compared to the current CFP contract. If the parties can actually get a new playoff into place for 2023 (which was suggested in some articles this weekend), that's a delta of $3.6 billion extra dollars compared to the current deal.
We spend pages and pages here talking about schools moving conferences and leaving long-time rivals for a few million dollars at the P5 level and, in many cases, less than a million dollars at the lower levels. Schools and leagues spend tons of resources on studies and consultants on how the maximize their respective positions in conference realignment.
Yet, are we really supposed to believe that the powers that be are going to just leave potentially
$3.6 billion (and maybe even more) on the table? It's not just a matter of waiting for the current contract to end to seek higher bids because that would mean that the new contract would have to incorporate an additional $3.6 billion plus interest in order to cover the opportunity cost of those lost extra playoff years to make everyone whole.
Call me crazy, but when *billions* of extra dollars are at stake, I'd call that a motivating factor for everyone. I don't care what concerns there might be for NIL compensation or pay for play for athletes - if you've got *billions* of extra dollars coming in, then every school and conference everywhere will happily deal with that "problem" on their end. This will get done by the end of the year - it would be an insane breach of the fiduciary financial responsibilities of everyone involved if this fails to pass.