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Poll: Can an AAC team make the 4-team playoff in 2021?
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Yes 42.31% 22 42.31%
No 57.69% 30 57.69%
Total 52 vote(s) 100%
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CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
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pesik Offline
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Post: #81
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
oregon losses... the pac 12 no longer have a team in contention

penn state and iowa play each other next week- one of them is bound to lose

we are 5 games in and likely one need 1 Oklahoma loss to get cincy in the playoff

obviously- michignan. michigna state nad maybe baylor can jump cinct from behind.. but almost all the teams outside Oklahoma are in the big 10, and will likely cannibalize themselves
10-02-2021 06:48 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #82
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
First, if Cincy goes undefeated, they should have a shot. But they really need Oklahoma to lose. Even with that, I could a possibly see 2 SEC vs 2 B10

If Ga and Bama play each other in CCG and it is a close game, both are in. The same for OSU/PSU vs Iowa. Or OSU with 1 loss and PSU/Iowa CCG. Not saying it is right, but I could see the CFP do that.
10-02-2021 07:37 PM
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panicstricken Offline
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Post: #83
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
Oregon lost thats good so unlikey PAC 12 puts a team in
Florida lost thats good
Bama and UGA are locks
I think OU will lose a game.
So UC is basically competing with WAKE and OU for the spot

Looks pretty doable.

Hopefully a 2-10 Tulsa team ruins it for UC
10-03-2021 07:26 AM
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GoOwls111 Offline
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Post: #84
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
WOW... UC at #5 AP. If they are better than #7 in 1st CFP Poll they have a shot, more than one ahead of them will slip up.
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2021 02:16 PM by GoOwls111.)
10-03-2021 02:15 PM
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200yrs2late Offline
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Post: #85
CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
Never gonna happen this year. Alabama and Georgia are locks baring an unprobably blowout loss by one of them in the SEC championship game. Big 10 champ will be likely be undefeated, so that's the third spot. if OU wins out, they get the last spot. Even with a loss they probably get it. The Big10 would get two in just to keep Cincy out as a last resort.

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10-03-2021 03:22 PM
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pesik Offline
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Post: #86
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
(10-03-2021 03:22 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Never gonna happen this year. Alabama and Georgia are locks baring an unprobably blowout loss by one of them in the SEC championship game. Big 10 champ will be likely be undefeated, so that's the third spot. if OU wins out, they get the last spot. Even with a loss they probably get it. The Big10 would get two in just to keep Cincy out as a last resort.

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this is where i disagree with you

we are only 5 games into the season (till 8 more games to go) and are already at a point where we only need 2 or 3 teams to be upset for cincy to have a chance

there are 8 games to go, cfb never goes as expected .. everything but bama has shown they are upsettable

and people are just writing off ohio state, they had 1 upset to a great team, destroyed everyone else by 40 and people arent even accounting for them to beat the undefeated big 10 teams and winning the league
10-03-2021 03:29 PM
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Atlanta Offline
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Post: #87
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
Cincy would be cheated if they go undefeated & don't make the CFP. But unfortunately I think they will be cheated.
10-04-2021 02:56 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #88
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
I actually think a 12-0 BYU (with 7 P5 wins + Boise State) would beat out a 13-0 Cincy (with 2 P5 wins + SMU + UCF).
10-04-2021 07:19 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #89
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
(10-04-2021 07:19 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I actually think a 12-0 BYU (with 7 P5 wins + Boise State) would beat out a 13-0 Cincy (with 2 P5 wins + SMU + UCF).

If ND doesn't collapse I don't see BYU jumping us even though they played more P5 teams. We knocked off the #9 team on the road that also had the second longest active home winning streak at 26 games. That's high quality H20.
10-04-2021 07:40 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #90
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
(10-04-2021 07:40 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(10-04-2021 07:19 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I actually think a 12-0 BYU (with 7 P5 wins + Boise State) would beat out a 13-0 Cincy (with 2 P5 wins + SMU + UCF).

If ND doesn't collapse I don't see BYU jumping us even though they played more P5 teams. We knocked off the #9 team on the road that also had the second longest active home winning streak at 26 games. That's high quality H20.

I find it highly unlikely that ND will take care of business the rest of the way. They will probably finish 9-3 or 10-2.
10-04-2021 07:46 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #91
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
(10-04-2021 07:46 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(10-04-2021 07:40 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(10-04-2021 07:19 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I actually think a 12-0 BYU (with 7 P5 wins + Boise State) would beat out a 13-0 Cincy (with 2 P5 wins + SMU + UCF).

If ND doesn't collapse I don't see BYU jumping us even though they played more P5 teams. We knocked off the #9 team on the road that also had the second longest active home winning streak at 26 games. That's high quality H20.

I find it highly unlikely that ND will take care of business the rest of the way. They will probably finish 9-3 or 10-2.

Well, a 9-3 or 10-2 ND is still pretty good. Again, we beat them on the road. That's about as big a quality road win that you can get. They won 26 in a row at home. I just don't believe an undefeated BYU would jump an undefeated Cincinnati. A lot of football to be played so we shall see...
10-04-2021 08:21 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #92
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
Yeah - lots of football left to be played.

Undeniable - there are at least two losses for the teams ahead of Cincinnati in the current AP/Coaches Polls.
Common sense - the committee will treat UC less kindly than the polls.

On behalf of Cincinnati, I'm less worried about ND dropping - even 9-3 or 10-2, a win at their place has to count, and they beat other ranked teams already. I'm more worried about Indiana letting you down - darlings last year, pre-season ranked, and now they're failing you in terms of being a quality win. We all need to be Hoosier fans here on out.
10-04-2021 08:34 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #93
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
After looking at UC schedule, sadly that will be the issue. The one year the AAC needed to be strong, it is not. They problem is SMU will be the only other ranked team they will play. If they win the regular season, odds are SMU drops out. If Cincy loses, they are out of the CFP. There is no quality wins left for them to get.

At this point, looking at the BYU schedule. There SOS appears it will much higher if they go undefeated. Note, I am not saying UC is not one of the top teams, but other than ND. What other team than SMU will look good on their resume when the CFP rankings come out. I think UC will still need a lot of help to get into the CFP. Please note, I am not saying they are not a CFP quality team, but it appears it will still be a steep climb.
10-04-2021 09:05 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #94
CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
32% chance of making the playoff now overall(up from 10% last week before the ND win ).
And 82% chance “if they win out”

[Image: d4a8712fa549e7f4a3eb5370523f2f43.jpg]

[Image: 0b8ae3dc09146c92b4a80edfa5e3c5bc.jpg]
10-04-2021 09:34 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Post: #95
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
(10-04-2021 09:05 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After looking at UC schedule, sadly that will be the issue. The one year the AAC needed to be strong, it is not. They problem is SMU will be the only other ranked team they will play. If they win the regular season, odds are SMU drops out. If Cincy loses, they are out of the CFP. There is no quality wins left for them to get.

At this point, looking at the BYU schedule. There SOS appears it will much higher if they go undefeated. Note, I am not saying UC is not one of the top teams, but other than ND. What other team than SMU will look good on their resume when the CFP rankings come out. I think UC will still need a lot of help to get into the CFP. Please note, I am not saying they are not a CFP quality team, but it appears it will still be a steep climb.

UC is also getting credit for last year - fair or not - but that's how the system has worked for the power programs. Cincinnati was 9-0 before the last second field goal win by Georgia in the Peach and finished ranked #8. We returned most of the starters from that team. If UC finishes the regular seaon [including chip game] undefeated that equals a 22-1 record over the past two seasons. I'm not concerned about BYU. That is no disrespect to them. They have a lot more ground to cover and jumping other teams above them. The bigger issue for UC is can they maintain a top five ranking going into championship week? There have already been an unprecedented number of top teams with one loss and I'll wager a few more will end up with two. If there was a year for the window to have an opening it is this year. Still a long season to go and it's hard to finish undefeated so I'll take it week by week.
10-04-2021 09:49 PM
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BearcatMan Offline
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Post: #96
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
(10-04-2021 09:05 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  After looking at UC schedule, sadly that will be the issue. The one year the AAC needed to be strong, it is not. They problem is SMU will be the only other ranked team they will play. If they win the regular season, odds are SMU drops out. If Cincy loses, they are out of the CFP. There is no quality wins left for them to get.

At this point, looking at the BYU schedule. There SOS appears it will much higher if they go undefeated. Note, I am not saying UC is not one of the top teams, but other than ND. What other team than SMU will look good on their resume when the CFP rankings come out. I think UC will still need a lot of help to get into the CFP. Please note, I am not saying they are not a CFP quality team, but it appears it will still be a steep climb.

That's the thing...it didn't happen when Memphis and Cincinnati played each other. If SMU runs it out to Week 11, I guarantee they'll be Top 15...and there ain't no way a Top 15 team who loses to a Top 3-5 team AWAY will drop out of the polls (and that win would carry a lot of weight in the voting too).
(This post was last modified: 10-05-2021 10:20 AM by BearcatMan.)
10-05-2021 10:18 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #97
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
Here are my standings, based on simulations. Overall, the American has decent chances. Just need Wake and Oklahoma to lose or for the top of the Big Ten to thin a bit more.

Code:
Top 4) Undefeated P5 Champs (or 1-loss Champs from SEC/Big Ten)
5) 1-loss at large Big Ten (34%)
6) 0-loss CHAMP AAC (34%)
7) 0-loss BYU (12%)
8) 1-loss at large SEC (65%)
8) 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (27%)
8) 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (32%)
9) 1-loss at large Big 12 (8%)
9) 2-loss CHAMP SEC (8%)
10) 1-loss Notre Dame (19%)
10) 1-loss CHAMP ACC (13%)
11) 2-loss at large Big Ten (126%)
11) 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (4%)
12) 0-loss CHAMP MWC (2%)
13) 1-loss at large ACC (4%)
14) 1-loss CHAMP Pac 12 (13%)
15) 2-loss at large SEC (103%)
16) 1-loss at large Pac 12 (0%)

There is lots of variability here when you look at specific scenarios. Notably, 2-loss Big Ten Champs from the Big Ten East are ahead of an undefeated American team. Also, 1-loss SEC teams whose loss was in the CCG are also ahead of an undefeated American team.

(10-04-2021 07:19 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I actually think a 12-0 BYU (with 7 P5 wins + Boise State) would beat out a 13-0 Cincy (with 2 P5 wins + SMU + UCF).

It'll be close. The Pac-12 is down this year. Much depends on how strong the Pac-12 winner is. If it is an 11-2 team (or a 10-3 USC) that BYU beat, bingo! Boise hasn't helped, going 2-3.
10-05-2021 01:17 PM
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ArmoredUpKnight Offline
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Post: #98
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
#1 Alabama lost
#4 Penn State lost

Cincy needs to be in the Top 4 in the AP poll
10-09-2021 10:55 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #99
RE: CFP bid for AAC in 2021?
With the system of having a playoff committee make a decision, no way.
10-09-2021 11:51 PM
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